Strengths:
Just looking at the box scores makes this team look like an offensive juggernaut. They have hung over 86 points on four of their first five opponents. They are lead by the three headed monster that is Jahii Carson, Jermaine Marshall, and Jordan Bachynski, a deadly combination of three point shooting and offensive rebounding. ASU is also one of the leaders in assist per game, averaging nearly 20. This passing has lead to great open looks for their shooters as they are hitting 40% of their 3PAs. In fact, 36% of their offense has come from 3PMs. Combine that with the 81 FTs they have already made and you have 55% of the offense. Their strategy is to hit the open shot when its there, and penetrate when its not.
Weaknesses:
A quick look at the competition and you will realize that ASU's offensive numbers may be a little bloated. They have been feasting on cupcakes, only one of their opponents was ranked in the top 215 RPI last season (UNLV) and that team was gutted by transfers, graduation, and declarations. They have only played one top 100 defense (UNLV 73), another top 150 (Bradley 144) and the rest were outside the top 200. You'll also notice that ASU has been playing their starters all game, even in blowout situations with 4 of their 5 starters getting 26+ minutes per game. Their defensive numbers are not great ranking outside the top 50 per KenPom. Despite playing inferior competition, ASU has actually committed more TOs than it has forced. They also only average 6 steals per game despite having a wooden award candidate at PG.
Starters:
PG: Jahii Carson SO 5-10 180 23.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 2.4 tpg, .550 3P
Carson is the Wooden award candidate on this team. ASU goes how he goes. He is averaging a whopping 23 ppg and 5.4 apg. He accounts for 43% of the offense. To understand his game, think the opposite of Derrick Wilson. He is aggressive, can shoot the lights out, and can finish at the rim despite his vertical challenges. His defense is good but not at Derrick levels. Expect Carson to play nearly the whole game. If MU can shut him down they will win but even holding him 15 points and 4 assists could be considered a victory.
SG: Jermaine Marshall SR 6-4 215 15.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.2 tpg, .438 3P
Marshall is a shoot first, ask questions later type of guard. He has the speed and handle to get to the rim but he much perfers to hit the spot up three after Carson dishes out on a drive. Marshall has hit 14 three pointers already at 44% clip. That's 53% of the points he has scored. Mayo and Thomas will be charged with guarding Marshall and they should be in his comfort zone all night. Don't care if Carson is driving, they need to stick to Marshall like white on Dylan Flood.
SF: Egor Koulechov FR 6-5 205 5.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.4 tpg, .222 3P
One of the two starters who is not part of the three headed monster. The freshman out of Volograd, Russia comes with the piss and vinegar you might expect out of someone from the Red North. He's very much a hustle player, throw other's down to get the rebound, even if they are twice his size. At this point, he's not a huge threat offensively except on the boards.
PF: Johnathan Gilling JR 6-7 219 7.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 0.2 bpg, 1.4 tpg, .375 3P
White Jamil Wilson? Maybe not. Despite putting up similar numbers to Jamil, and being a stretch four, the two have very different games. Gilling possess excellent vision for a PF, averaging 4 assists per game. He hits threes at an impressive 38% clip but is not afraid to make the extra pass to an open Marshall or Carson for the easy trey. Gilling has been known to go cold though. He scored 1 point and went 0-7 from 3 against UNLV, the only marginally good defense that they played (Jake Thomas syndrome?)
C: Jordan Bachynski SR 7-2 248 14.0 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 4.4 bpg, 2.0 tpg, .500 FT
The last piece of the three headed monster. The Canadian Behemoth is averaging a double double so far this season. Not too mention that he's averaging 4.4 blocks per game as well. His presence makes ASU especially effective because their shooters know that if they miss a three, there is a good chance Bachynski is there to grab the offensive board. He shoots decently well for a man his size. He is prone to foul trouble, getting multiple fouls in every game this season and nearly fouling out against Bradley. Has a small cases of the dropsies and will sometimes cough up the ball in the post. It's really hard to tell how good Bachynski is because so far the biggest opponent he has had to face was the 6-10 240 Brett Roseboro (snort). Oxtule will be his first real challenge.
The Bench:
They have a deep bench, utilizing a 12 man rotation so far. Given that we are their first real opponent, I would guess that the rotation will get shortened to nine or ten, unless foul trouble strikes. There are no outsanding bench players on this team but everyone can play. Shaquielle McKissic is another hustle type of player similar to Koulechov. There is only one legitmate backup to Bachynski and that's the not-so-talented Eric Jacobson. If Bachynski gets in foul trouble, this team is in deep water. Another thing to note, every single person on the bench except Jacobson has hit a three this season. Lots of shooters on this team.
We Win If:
We shut down Carson. He accounts for almost half the offense on the floor. If we frustrate him and coax him into bad shots and turnovers, we can grind out a victory. Getting Bachynski in foul trouble wouldn't hurt either. As previously mentioned, the only other player bigger than 6-7 220 lbs on the team is Jacobson who leaves much to be desired. Oxtule and Taylor would have a field day on the boards.
They Win If:
Threes are falling for them and not for us. 3Ps and FTs account for over half of ASU's offense. They will take a lot of shots, especially with our defense being as good as it is. If their shooters get hot early, it will give them confidence and we will be dead in the water. We also NEED to make at least four 3Ps. I don't care if it's Thomas, Mayo, Jamil...hell I don't care if its Derrick who makes it, we need some threes to force their defense to spread out a little and free up room for Oxtule to work.
Bold Prediction:
Derrick Wilson will hold Carson to 12 points, 3 assists, and 4 TOs. D Wil will counter with 2 points, 4 assists, and 1 TO Scoopers will still beotch that he doesn't do anything.
Final:
MU 60 ASU 55
RING OUT AHOYA!!!
Sounds good to me, no need to play the game.
Carson had 40 v. UNLV by taking 25 shots. The rest of the games were <20.
Quote from: The Sultan of Syncopation on November 24, 2013, 04:55:14 PM
Carson had 40 v. UNLV by taking 25 shots. The rest of the games were <20.
True...but just under 20. 3 games he scored 19 and one he scored 18
Opening line sent out is ASU favored by 6. Jahii Carson is a 5'10" PG who is lightening quick. UNLV couldn't stop or contain him.
Bump!
Quote from: VegasWarrior77 on November 24, 2013, 05:26:05 PM
Opening line sent out is ASU favored by 6. Jahii Carson is a 5'10" PG who is lightening quick. UNLV couldn't stop or contain him.
Will Buzz try to contain him with JWil? Sure Jamil is slower, but that 10 inch difference in height could be something Carson has never seen before.