Cool spreadsheet of the top 25 rankings from the 10 pre-season polls made so far. From the Badger board...surprisingly
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Asjb5kvZz0PcdFJVaUJ1TW0xSS00WHN3TXluTjljTGc#gid=0
How bad a coach do you have to think that Josh Pastner is before you fail to rank Memphis in your preseason top 25?
Pretty nice. This should show you how pointless Dickie V is...he ranked Indiana #4 last night and consensus isn't even in the top 19.
Quote from: Aughnanure on April 10, 2013, 10:52:36 AM
Cool spreadsheet of the top 25 rankings from the 10 pre-season polls made so far. From the Badger board...surprisingly
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Asjb5kvZz0PcdFJVaUJ1TW0xSS00WHN3TXluTjljTGc#gid=0
Thanks Augie...exciting year to come. On the cusp...
Love this.
Heck of a drop off after the top 10
Glad Georgetown is in the mix, but not too close to us.
I'd love the dominate the Big East but I don't want people thinking this is a new WCC with no competition.
Let's hope G-town, Butler and Nova are solid tourny teams
Not exactly the best showing for the new league.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 10, 2013, 11:48:00 AM
Not exactly the best showing for the new league.
Neither for the Big XII and Pac-12.
Quote from: BagpipingBoxer on April 10, 2013, 11:48:00 AM
Not exactly the best showing for the new league.
Hopefully GTown is good enough without Porter to remain in the polls. I also think Nova will be in the 15-20 range by mid-season. If St. John's players don't bolt too soon, then they have a chance to be in the top 25 as well. Butler wasn't expected to do anything this year either.
If we can get four teams into the top25 for most of the season I'd consider that a strong first showing. But MU better be prepared to carry the heavy lifting for the next couple of years.
18 beyond the bets? Ill take that bet.
Quote from: AWegrzyn17 on April 10, 2013, 11:55:51 AM
Hopefully GTown is good enough without Porter to remain in the polls. I also think Nova will be in the 15-20 range by mid-season. If St. John's players don't bolt too soon, then they have a chance to be in the top 25 as well. Butler wasn't expected to do anything this year either.
If we can get four teams into the top25 for most of the season I'd consider that a strong first showing. But MU better be prepared to carry the heavy lifting for the next couple of years.
Butler was receiving more votes than us at the beginning of the season. I don't think SJU is going anywhere this year didn't someone just transfer and another likely to leave or get expelled? Nova is likely though.
Quote from: Victor McCormick on April 10, 2013, 11:13:58 AM
Glad Georgetown is in the mix, but not too close to us.
I'd love the dominate the Big East but I don't want people thinking this is a new WCC with no competition.
Let's hope G-town, Butler and Nova are solid tourny teams
I'm as high as anyone on MU and its long-term prospects, but this is beyond a little presumptuous.
Hahaha whoever ranked MU as 18 is delusional. Never even heard of Beyond the Bets. MU is waaaaayyyy higher than that. and LOL at ranking Wisconsin anywhere in the top 25. They lost in the first round...a 9? Really??
Quote from: GoldenZebra on April 10, 2013, 12:31:29 PM
Hahaha whoever ranked MU as 18 is delusional. Never even heard of Beyond the Bets. MU is waaaaayyyy higher than that. and LOL at ranking Wisconsin anywhere in the top 25. They lost in the first round...a 9? Really??
They'll overachieve next year somehow. As always.
Quote from: windyplayer on April 10, 2013, 12:19:44 PM
I'm as high as anyone on MU and its long-term prospects, but this is beyond a little presumptuous.
I was mainly referring to next year and next year only. I think the strength of the league will be down a little bit, with us and maybe Georgetown as the only other contender.
I know the league will be strong long-term, very strong. Nova, Butler, Creighton, etc. will all be in contention in the future
Quote from: Victor McCormick on April 10, 2013, 01:25:39 PM
I was mainly referring to next year and next year only. I think the strength of the league will be down a little bit, with us and maybe Georgetown as the only other contender.
I know the league will be strong long-term, very strong. Nova, Butler, Creighton, etc. will all be in contention in the future
Gotcha. I have no concerns about dominating a good league in a potentially down year.
Look at the preseason polls the last 10 years or so, I'd bet 40% of the teams listed here won't be ranked by season's end if patterns continue. Let's just hope MU is one of the 60%, but preseason polls are horrifically bad.
what evidence would you provide that would make you think MU wouldn't be ranked? Every year they are it seems.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on April 10, 2013, 06:41:41 PM
Look at the preseason polls the last 10 years or so, I'd bet 40% of the teams listed here won't be ranked by season's end if patterns continue. Let's just hope MU is one of the 60%, but preseason polls are horrifically bad.
Agree. I loathe preseason polls. I think polls shouldn't come out until conference play starts. In football, particularly, it's nearly impossible to start on the outside (the 25) and get to the BCS game, even if your team was pretty significantly underrated/overlooked when the season started.
Quote from: jesmu84 on April 10, 2013, 06:51:06 PM
Agree. I loathe preseason polls. I think polls shouldn't come out until conference play starts. In football, particularly, it's nearly impossible to start on the outside (the 25) and get to the BCS game, even if your team was pretty significantly underrated/overlooked when the season started.
There is a good reason why they shouldn't come out in football (no playoffs), there is no such reason with basketball, that is just silliness. If you want to convince me that you 'loath' them, then don't click on threads titled 'Pre-season top 25' and then leave a comment.
Quote from: RawdogDX on April 11, 2013, 08:28:39 AM
There is a good reason why they shouldn't come out in football (no playoffs), there is no such reason with basketball, that is just silliness. If you want to convince me that you 'loath' them, then don't click on threads titled 'Pre-season top 25' and then leave a comment.
So you completely ignore everything in life that you disagree with? You don't voice your opinion and try to change things? Pretty apathetic.
This year's AP Top 10:
1 Indiana - SWEET 16
2 Louisville - CHAMPS
3 Kentucky - BUST
4 Ohio State -ELITE 8
5 Michigan - RUNNER UP
6 North Carolina State - 1ST ROUND
7 Kansas - SWEET 16
8 Duke - ELITE 8
9 Syracuse - FINAL FOUR
10 Florida - ELITE 8
60% made the Elite 8, 80% made the Sweet 16, 90% made the NCAAs.
FIXED my KU mistake...they made S16, not E8.
Quote from: JD on April 10, 2013, 06:50:07 PM
what evidence would you provide that would make you think MU wouldn't be ranked? Every year they are it seems.
I don't think it was meant that Marquette won't be ranked, just that a certain number of teams in the preseason top 25 fallout and a certain percentage of them live up to expectations and are still there at the end.
Quote from: The Lens on April 11, 2013, 08:45:59 AM
This year's AP Top 10:
1 Indiana - SWEET 16
2 Louisville - CHAMPS
3 Kentucky - BUST
4 Ohio State -ELITE 8
5 Michigan - RUNNER UP
6 North Carolina State - 1ST ROUND
7 Kansas -ELITE 8
8 Duke - ELITE 8
9 Syracuse - FINAL FOUR
10 Florida - ELITE 8
70% made the Elite 8, 80% made the Sweet 16, 90% made the NCAAs.
Yup, but we were talking about the top 25 and my point was where they are ranked in the preseason is not where where they are ranked at the end. Furthermore, it's not that hard to figure out the top 10 teams, yet even then they got 20% of them wrong.
#3 Kentucky...not ranked end of year
#6 NC State...not ranked end of year
#12 North Carolina...not ranked end of year
#13 UCLA...not ranked end of year
#17 Missouri...not ranked end of year
#18 Baylor...not ranked end of year
#19 UNLV...not ranked end of year
#20 San Diego State...not ranked end of year
#22 Notre Dame...not ranked end of year
#24 Cincinnati...not ranked end of year
#24 Texas...not ranked end of year
#24 Florida State...not ranked end of year
12 of the top 25 preseason didn't finish ranked.....almost 50% You can do the exercise for both polls, they are brutally bad in the preseason and have been so for many years.
Then you factor in the other way
Marquette...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Saint Louis...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Wichita State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Kansas State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Miami...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
New Mexico...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
La Salle...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Oregon...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
VCU...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on April 11, 2013, 09:03:17 AM
Yup, but we were talking about the top 25 and my point was where they are ranked in the preseason is not where where they are ranked at the end. Furthermore, it's not that hard to figure out the top 10 teams, yet even then they got 20% of them wrong.
#3 Kentucky...not ranked end of year
#6 NC State...not ranked end of year
#12 North Carolina...not ranked end of year
#13 UCLA...not ranked end of year
#17 Missouri...not ranked end of year
#18 Baylor...not ranked end of year
#19 UNLV...not ranked end of year
#20 San Diego State...not ranked end of year
#22 Notre Dame...not ranked end of year
#24 Cincinnati...not ranked end of year
#24 Texas...not ranked end of year
#24 Florida State...not ranked end of year
12 of the top 25 preseason didn't finish ranked.....almost 50% You can do the exercise for both polls, they are brutally bad in the preseason and have been so for many years.
Then you factor in the other way
Marquette...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Saint Louis...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Wichita State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Kansas State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Miami...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
New Mexico...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
La Salle...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Oregon...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
VCU...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
That, sir, is why they play the games.
Being ranked in the preseason top 10 is good for a couple reasons: exposure (national TV games especially) and starting a leg up over the unranked in terms of staying ranked. That's pretty much it. It is not a predictor of NCAA tournament chances, RPI, or conference success. It means little. But it does have a few benefits. And when its the offseason, its something to be excited about at least.
Who in the hell does Kentucky have coming in that puts them #1 across the board?!
Quote from: The Lens on April 11, 2013, 08:45:59 AM
This year's AP Top 10:
1 Indiana - SWEET 16
2 Louisville - CHAMPS
3 Kentucky - BUST
4 Ohio State -ELITE 8
5 Michigan - RUNNER UP
6 North Carolina State - 1ST ROUND
7 Kansas -ELITE 8
8 Duke - ELITE 8
9 Syracuse - FINAL FOUR
10 Florida - ELITE 8
70% made the Elite 8, 80% made the Sweet 16, 90% made the NCAAs.
Florida actually only made the S16.
However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.
Quote from: Sunbelt15 on April 11, 2013, 11:01:53 AM
Who in the hell does Kentucky have coming in that puts them #1 across the board?!
Arguably the greatest recruiting class ever assembled.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on April 11, 2013, 11:05:47 AM
Florida actually only made the S16.
However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.
Florida lost to Michigan in the elite 8, they beat FGCU in the sweet 16
Quote from: cbowe3 on April 11, 2013, 11:11:34 AM
Florida lost to Michigan in the elite 8, they beat FGCU in the sweet 16
Oops. Kansas, not Florida, was knocked out by Michigan in the S16. Got those games mixed up. Thanks!
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on April 11, 2013, 11:05:47 AM
Florida actually only made the S16.
However, 6 of the E8 teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and 2 other teams were knocked out by those 6 in the S16. Much better than I would have thought.
Fixed it. I knew I was wrong bc obviously WSU & MU were not Preseason Top 10. Thanks for correcting. That being said, when 80% of the Top 10 makes the S16, it's not a bad place to be.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on April 11, 2013, 09:03:17 AM
Yup, but we were talking about the top 25 and my point was where they are ranked in the preseason is not where where they are ranked at the end. Furthermore, it's not that hard to figure out the top 10 teams, yet even then they got 20% of them wrong.
#3 Kentucky...not ranked end of year
#6 NC State...not ranked end of year
#12 North Carolina...not ranked end of year
#13 UCLA...not ranked end of year
#17 Missouri...not ranked end of year
#18 Baylor...not ranked end of year
#19 UNLV...not ranked end of year
#20 San Diego State...not ranked end of year
#22 Notre Dame...not ranked end of year
#24 Cincinnati...not ranked end of year
#24 Texas...not ranked end of year
#24 Florida State...not ranked end of year
12 of the top 25 preseason didn't finish ranked.....almost 50% You can do the exercise for both polls, they are brutally bad in the preseason and have been so for many years.
Then you factor in the other way
Marquette...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Saint Louis...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Wichita State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Kansas State...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Miami...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
New Mexico...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
La Salle...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
Oregon...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
VCU...not ranked preseason....but finished ranked
75% (12) of the top 16 end up ranked. The lower you go, the less margin for error. I mean, the 3 teams TIED for 24th in a preseason poll not finishing in the top 25 is almost statistically meaningless - not an indication that they're "brutally bad".
Quote from: Lennys Tap on April 11, 2013, 01:24:44 PM
75% (12) of the top 16 end up ranked. The lower you go, the less margin for error. I mean, the 3 teams TIED for 24th in a preseason poll not finishing in the top 25 is almost statistically meaningless - not an indication that they're "brutally bad".
We agree, the lower you go the margin for error is less. No argument there....then again, they are publishing a top 25, not a top 10 or top 15.
My pet peeve with them every year, especially the coaches poll (I actually witnessed first hand how the "coaches" voted in that thing...what a farce) is that they don't have the time even in season to do it correctly, they sure as hell aren't going to do it right in the preseason. It becomes an exercise where the same 10 teams are automatically in the top 25 regardless of who they have coming back. They fill in around the edges and make up their top 25. It's just lazy effort, but I don't blame them because its too much work to truly sit down and see how is going to be good. It becomes nonsensical, but something for fans to talk about. Just don't get too tied to them, but over 40% of the time you aren't finishing the season ranked...that's been the case for the last decade.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on April 11, 2013, 01:43:08 PM
We agree, the lower you go the margin for error is less. No argument there....then again, they are publishing a top 25, not a top 10 or top 15.
My pet peeve with them every year, especially the coaches poll (I actually witnessed first hand how the "coaches" voted in that thing...what a farce) is that they don't have the time even in season to do it correctly, they sure as hell aren't going to do it right in the preseason. It becomes an exercise where the same 10 teams are automatically in the top 25 regardless of who they have coming back. They fill in around the edges and make up their top 25. It's just lazy effort, but I don't blame them because its too much work to truly sit down and see how is going to be good. It becomes nonsensical, but something for fans to talk about. Just don't get too tied to them, but over 40% of the time you aren't finishing the season ranked...that's been the case for the last decade.
A good friend was an SID at ND, so i've got a little perspective on this and totally agree about the coaches poll. I know little about it, so I thought I'd ask your opinion on the AP poll
Quote from: jesmu84 on April 11, 2013, 01:55:00 PM
A good friend was an SID at ND, so i've got a little perspective on this and totally agree about the coaches poll. I know little about it, so I thought I'd ask your opinion on the AP poll
;D Hornet's nest question. There are some sports reporters that I think many would characterize as not exactly the go getter type, maybe even lazy. They are in the chow line before the games, have the SIDs write the stories for them, etc. Then there are those that work their tails off. Let's just say the AP poll is mixed with voters of both ilks so the good work done by those that actually dig into a team and how good they really are is offset by the lazy ones that don't do squat and dilute the votes of those actually doing the work.
Even Bilas has us in the top 10 at No. 8.
ESPN Insider
The ridiculous reliability of The Bilas Index almost rendered the 2012-13 college basketball season irrelevant. The Bilas Index, which combines all of the best features of the most reliable metrics in the game with the raw and awesome power of The Bilastrator's incomparable basketball mind, has pinpoint accuracy. Simply put, it's never wrong, and the entire landscape of the game is put into context and simplified by The Bilastrator. Case in point, prior to the 2013 NCAA tournament, The Bilas Index tapped Louisville as the best team in college basketball. Notwithstanding the ups and downs of the Cardinals, you're welcome.
Still, it was good that the 2013 NCAA tournament was played anyway so the NCAA could earn some badly-needed cash. Paying for all those mascots and "spirit squads" for graduated athletes on job interviews would have been a challenge without it. Of this, The Bilastrator is certain.
While The Bilas Index usually makes use of analytics such as KenPom.com, the Sagarin Ratings, the UPS Team Performance Index, ESPN's Basketball Power Index, and many of the most subtle metrics in the game kept meticulously by The Bilastrator's minions, this prescient, perceptive and hyper-clairvoyant "look ahead" to the 2013-14 season is based primarily upon The Bilastrator's massive brain and unparalleled basketball expertise and knowledge.
Even without the metrics as a baseline of on-court accomplishment, The Bilastrator's basketball mind and experience can serve to predict the upcoming basketball season, much like Nostradamus predicted the future in his quatrains (except The Bilastrator's predictions are far more accurate). As always, you're welcome.
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1. Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats will take their NIT disappointment out on the rest of the field with the nation's top recruiting class and some very confident returnees. John Calipari's incoming class is ridiculous, with Julius Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson and Andrew and Aaron Harrison. This Kentucky team will be the first in basketball history where players declared for the NBA draft because they feared they couldn't play on their college team if they came back.
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2. Louisville Cardinals
Rick Pitino's Cardinals should not be expected to contend after losing a backcourt that led him to two straight Final Fours. But he has a juco point guard, Chris Jones, who will help make up for the loss of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. Jones is the real thing.
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3. Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo has another Final Four team as long as his backcourt of Keith Appling and Gary Harris stays healthy. Adreian Payne should blossom into a frontcourt star and Matt Costello will take off in the middle.
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4. Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils lose a trio of seniors who led the way, but incoming freshman phenom Jabari Parker and Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood will provide punch to a small but very talented lineup. Duke will be quick, athletic and attacking, and will be a Final Four threat.
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5. Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats were as talented as any team they played this season, but weren't as experienced or mentally tough as they will be in 2013-14. Mark Lyons will be replaced with Duquesne transfer T.J. McConnell, and newcomers Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will be immediate factors in making Arizona a title contender.
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6. North Carolina Tar Heels
Roy Williams gets high marks for his flexibility and decision-making when he went to the smaller, quicker and simply better lineup in 2013. The Tar Heels add newcomers Isaiah Hicks, Nate Britt and Kennedy Meeks and have an outside shot at No. 1 recruit Andrew Wiggins.
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7. Florida Gators
Billy Donovan has solidified his Hall of Fame resume with three straight Elite Eight appearances, falling short of the Final Four all three times. Florida can defend in the half court and can score. Freshmen Kasey Hill and Chris Walker should play right away, and Virginia Tech transfer Dorian Finney-Smith can really rebound and defend.
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8. Marquette Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles return Vander Blue, Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner. Buzz Williams will have a new point guard, but he has had new pieces every year and has been money in the NCAA tournament.
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9. Michigan Wolverines
John Beilein has always done more with less. This year, Beilein did more with more, and he'll have more and less next season. The key will be the development of a new backcourt, as Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely be gone.
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10. Indiana Hoosiers
Without Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, Indiana will have players in new roles. However, Tom Crean has an excellent forward in Noah Vonleh coming in. Indiana will be competitive with anyone.
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11. Syracuse Orange
Jim Boeheim returns a veteran group of winning players and brings in Tyler Ennis to run the point and Tyler Roberson up front. Losing Michael Carter-Williams hurts, but when was the last time Syracuse didn't lose top talent? The most important returnees are Boeheim and assistant Mike Hopkins.
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12. Tennessee Volunteers
Cuonzo Martin flirted with the NCAA tournament and has most of his roster back, including Jeronne Maymon. A key for them will be the play at the point with Trae Golden and Darius Thompson.
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13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish have a good core returning, including an outstanding backcourt in Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, plus a top-rated recruiting class with point guard Demetrius Jackson leading the way.
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14. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
The Rams return everyone from a near-dominant team, and head coach Shaka Smart was the most important person retained. VCU can shoot it and guard.
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15. Kansas Jayhawks
Breaking news ... Kansas loses all five starters, but is still a national contender because Bill Self decided not to declare for the NBA draft. That's good enough for The Bilastrator. Plus, Kansas brings in Conner Frankamp to run the point and Wayne Selden to light it up.
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16. Connecticut Huskies
After the ridiculous postseason ban, the Huskies return one of the best backcourts in the country in Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright.
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17. Memphis Tigers
The Tigers lose Tarik Black and Adonis Thomas but bring in a top-rated group of newcomers to one of the most athletic teams in the nation. This will be Josh Pastner's best team at Memphis.
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18. Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffs bring back the heart of Tad Boyle's team and will continue to defend and rebound. However, Colorado needs to score more efficiently.
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19. Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats made the NCAA tournament with a young team and will continue to get better. Ryan Arcidiacono will be one of the nation's best guards.
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20. Wichita State Shockers
Gregg Marshall loses Malcolm Armstead and Carl Hall, but returns the core of his Final Four team, including Cleanthony Early and Ron Baker.
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21. New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos lost Tony Snell to the NBA draft and Steve Alford to UCLA, though everyone else will be back. Craig Neal inherits a really good program.
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22. Harvard Crimson
Tommy Amaker retains most of his rotation from a team that won its third Ivy League title in a row, earned its second straight NCAA tournament bid and its first-ever NCAA win. Amaker also brings in star recruit Zena Edosomwan and gets Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry back.
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23. Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were an NCAA tournament team in 2013; it's just that the selection committee didn't notice. Four of five starters return, including All-ACC guard Joe Harris.
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24. Wisconsin Badgers
Sam Dekker should take over as a star for Bo Ryan, and even though the Badgers don't look it on paper, Ryan will make this into a top 25 team.
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25. Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal return Dwight Powell, Chasson Randle, Aaron Bright and Josh Huestis from a team that won 19 games and lost a ton of close ones.