Is this guy considered a good source for rating all of the teams? I'm looking for some office pool/bracket guidance. He has Pitt #7 and MU #25. I seem to recall us beating Pitt twice this season.
Quote from: WarriorHal on March 19, 2013, 08:09:02 PM
Is this guy considered a good source for rating all of the teams? I'm looking for some office pool/bracket guidance. He has Pitt #7 and MU #25. I seem to recall us beating Pitt twice this season.
If you read his blog post, he'll tell you that just because Pitt > MU in his rankings, that does not mean his log5 equations would predict a Pitt win.
I like looking at the efficiency and tempo rankings for perspective, and he's the best source for that. Some seem to take the overall rankings as gold, and that's going too far.
KPoms algorithms seem to have gone haywire this year as teams with 11 or 12 losses are way too high. Guess those mathematics don't account for the human factor...?
I used his rankings for one of my brackets a few years back and it was a complete disaster. I wish I could remember what year it was so I could go back and look.
My understanding is that his game by game predictions have beaten the other computer models(indluding RPI) in past NCAA tournaments.
They all have limitations though...as he said in his blog....just because he has Florida #1 doesn't mean he is predicting that they will win......he is predicting that will not win it 79% of the time.
Quote from: WarriorHal on March 19, 2013, 08:09:02 PM
Is this guy considered a good source for rating all of the teams? I'm looking for some office pool/bracket guidance. He has Pitt #7 and MU #25. I seem to recall us beating Pitt twice this season.
The answer to your basic question is, um, how shall I put this ...
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This guy has Wisconsin ranked about 20 positions higher than Bucky should be at any given time. He explains it away by saying Bucky's style is kryptonite to whatever algorithms he uses.
Some folks here like some of the stats he comes up with to compare teams but even those folks mostly acknowledge that his team ratings are a joke. And you know they are a joke if they even make the coaches' poll (famously voted on by pretty much anybody but the coaches) look good.
Let's just make a pool with brackets based on all the major ranking services and determine, once and for all, which one is best.