Lunardi has us up to a 5 seed in Austin, playing the winner of the ASU/Temple play-in, with New Mexico as the 4. Big East up to 8 teams as Villanova gets in. SJU 5th team out.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
If you had to guess today what seed we'll end up with, whatcha got? I say 5.
Edit: Based on his S-Curve, Lunardi actually sees us as the top 5 seed, at #17. Other notables: #3 Florida, #7 Syracuse, #10 Louisville, #14 Cincinnati, #16 Butler.
Quote from: drewm88 on February 01, 2013, 11:18:18 AM
If you had to guess today what seed we'll end up with, whatcha got? I say 5.
Ask me at 3PM Sunday. A lot of questions will have been answered by then.
I think that we can reasonably get a 4 seed with 12 conference wins.
Beating Louisville and Georgetown on the road would be big upsets, so 2-2 in the next four games puts MU at 8-3. Then finish 4-3 down the stretch that includes a signature win over Syracuse at the BC. Then we would only need to win one game at MSG to lock up a 4 seed in my opinion, 2 wins would make a case for a 3 possibly.
People might overvalue beating Syracuse or we could over perform 12 wins. But, it would be hard to see us moving out of the 4-6 seed range. The Wisconsin win is looking better now and the Butler loss is not that bad though Butler got beat up by SLU last night which is concerning.
We just don't have that signature win in the non-conference to push us too much higher. And we have the beating in Florida and loss to UW-GB holding us back from being considered a top 12 team and a 3 seed I think.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on February 01, 2013, 11:29:31 AM
I think that we can reasonably get a 4 seed with 12 conference wins.
Beating Louisville and Georgetown on the road would be big upsets, so 2-2 in the next four games puts MU at 8-3. Then finish 4-3 down the stretch that includes a signature win over Syracuse at the BC. Then we would only need to win one game at MSG to lock up a 4 seed in my opinion, 2 wins would make a case for a 3 possibly.
People might overvalue beating Syracuse or we could over perform 12 wins. But, it would be hard to see us moving out of the 4-6 seed range. The Wisconsin win is looking better now and the Butler loss is not that bad though Butler got beat up by SLU last night which is concerning.
We just don't have that signature win in the non-conference to push us too much higher. And we have the beating in Florida and loss to UW-GB holding us back from being considered a top 12 team and a 3 seed I think.
Beat UL, G-town on the road, 'Cuse, finish with 12 conference wins, take a game in the BE Tourney and 4 is the lowest we'd be.
That being said, it's no small task to do all those things.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 01, 2013, 11:20:46 AM
Ask me at 3PM Sunday. A lot of questions will have been answered by then.
Like what?
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on February 01, 2013, 11:35:54 AM
Like what?
Like:
"Will we beat Louisville?"
"Do we continue to have Cinci-style first-halves and struggle with scoring and not making stupid turnovers?"
"How do we look on the road against a higher-ranked/legitimate Final Four team?"
And so forth.
Quote from: lawwarrior12 on February 01, 2013, 11:34:46 AM
Beat UL, G-town on the road, 'Cuse, finish with 12 conference wins, take a game in the BE Tourney and 4 is the lowest we'd be.
That being said, it's no small task to do all those things.
If we beat UL, GTown and 'Cuse we'll end up with more than 12 conference wins certainly. 2 out of 3 would be a major accomplishment.
Be great to find our way to a #4. That gets us our own pod (like last year) and a real shot at a game the faithful can easily travel to by car.
J Palm has us a #6 vs Bucknell in SLC. UK/Gonzaga would await the winner.
No thanks.
Quote from: lawwarrior12 on February 01, 2013, 11:34:46 AM
Beat UL, G-town on the road, 'Cuse, finish with 12 conference wins, take a game in the BE Tourney and 4 is the lowest we'd be.
That being said, it's no small task to do all those things.
You think if we beat UL, Gtown AND Cuse that we would have only 12 conference wins??
Quote from: HoopsMalone on February 01, 2013, 11:29:31 AM
I think that we can reasonably get a 4 seed with 12 conference wins.
Beating Louisville and Georgetown on the road would be big upsets, so 2-2 in the next four games puts MU at 8-3. Then finish 4-3 down the stretch that includes a signature win over Syracuse at the BC. Then we would only need to win one game at MSG to lock up a 4 seed in my opinion, 2 wins would make a case for a 3 possibly.
We just don't have that signature win in the non-conference to push us too much higher. And we have the beating in Florida and loss to UW-GB holding us back from being considered a top 12 team and a 3 seed I think.
If we finish 12-6 in the Big East, that will make us 21-9 overall. Assuming we go 1-1 in BET that would put us at 22-10 going into Selection Sunday. I don't see how that gets us a 4 seed when you consider in your scenario we'll have just one win over a top 25 team (Syracuse, maybe 2 if Georgetown ends up there). Sounds more like a 6 seed to me. Since we have only one "gimme" (home vs DePaul) left on the schedule, I'd sign up for that right now if I could.
This speculation is a lot of fun. To get to the final 4, chance are we are going to have to beat at least one of the following .....IU, Michigan, Florida, Duke, Michigan St, Kansas, Gonzaga, probably in a somewhat hostile environment. Based on the probable number of Big East teams, we should be able to avoid Syracuse and Louisville in the big dance. So.....which of the big boys do you want to face the second weekend?
Izzo march success aside it would be Michigan state without a doubt.
Indiana. No one has a bigger home court advantage. Indiana more than any other top team in the country seems to be a completely different quality away from their home arena.
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 01, 2013, 12:46:27 PM
If we finish 12-6 in the Big East, that will make us 21-9 overall. Assuming we go 1-1 in BET that would put us at 22-10 going into Selection Sunday. I don't see how that gets us a 4 seed when you consider in your scenario we'll have just one win over a top 25 team (Syracuse, maybe 2 if Georgetown ends up there). Sounds more like a 6 seed to me. Since we have only one "gimme" (home vs DePaul) left on the schedule, I'd sign up for that right now if I could.
A 22-10 record is all relative to the field, and would not exclude MU this year from a 4 or 5 seed. MU's resume this year will be very strong in regards to SOS and RPI/Sagarin/Kenpom.
At the rate this NCAA season is going, besides the very top, there will be a lot of teams in the hunt for the 3, 4, and 5 seeds with 9+ losses.
I checked last year's bracket and all #4's have 9 losses including a #3 seed. In 2011, two of the 5 seeds had 11 losses and another 5 seed had 10 losses.
It'll all depends on how MU stacks up against the rest.
Fyi, in the above scenario, I think you missed Louisville as a road win over a top 25 team (to go along with Cuse and possibly Gtown).
Quote from: tower912 on February 01, 2013, 12:56:01 PM
This speculation is a lot of fun. To get to the final 4, chance are we are going to have to beat at least one of the following .....IU, Michigan, Florida, Duke, Michigan St, Kansas, Gonzaga, probably in a somewhat hostile environment. Based on the probable number of Big East teams, we should be able to avoid Syracuse and Louisville in the big dance. So.....which of the big boys do you want to face the second weekend?
brew has morphed into tower! ;D
I love the optimism but to automatically assume second weekend action....
I need to go back and read the post UWGB wailing and gnashing of teeth. That said, I'd love IU in the worst way.
Quote from: wardle2wade on February 01, 2013, 01:10:45 PM
Fyi, in the above scenario, I think you missed Louisville as a road win over a top 25 team (to go along with Cuse and possibly Gtown).
I was responding to HoopsMalone who had us losing to UL and finishing 12-6. If we beat Louisville I feel strongly that we will finish better than 12-6.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on February 01, 2013, 01:06:57 PM
Izzo march success aside it would be Michigan state without a doubt.
If it were not for the fact that I have more IU in-laws than anyone ever should, I would definitely go with Indiana. That said, +1 to Moo-U.
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 01, 2013, 01:25:16 PM
I was responding to HoopsMalone who had us losing to UL and finishing 12-6. If we beat Louisville I feel strongly that we will finish better than 12-6.
Sorry, I misread.
I'm not buying S16 tickets just yet. I like the optimism and hope it happens. All I would bet on is there will be more no bluebloods in S16 than normal this year.