MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: drewm88 on January 22, 2013, 12:11:38 PM
-
MU a 7 seed playing Colorado State in Dayton. Winner plays...Florida. I'll pass.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
-
So would the committee, most likely. They usually try to avoid having teams potentially play another team in the first weekend that they already played in the regular season.
Not always, but generally.
-
Though it would be fun to hang with all of our new friends from Dayton. ::)
-
So would the committee, most likely. They usually try to avoid having teams potentially play another team in the first weekend that they already played in the regular season.
Not always, but generally.
Second round (Round of 64) re-matches are prohibited. Third round (Round of 32) re-matches are allowed, but only to preserve other selection rules/guidelines.
In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round... it couldn't just match the two up for the sake of convenience. Lunardi does a decent job of forecasting the teams that will be in the tournament, but he's not so great with locations/matchups.
-
Florida will end up a 1 seed. The SEC is pretty much garbage this year. Would not be shocked at all to see them enter the tournament on a 20+ game winning streak while other 1 seed contenders will likely drop at least a couple tough conference games between now and then.
-
In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round.
Nothing about that first match up should compel them to schedule another match up.
-
Nothing about that first match up should compel them to schedule another match up.
LOL. Ouch. True. But ouch. :-[
-
Florida will end up a 1 seed. The SEC is pretty much garbage this year. Would not be shocked at all to see them enter the tournament on a 20+ game winning streak while other 1 seed contenders will likely drop at least a couple tough conference games between now and then.
They definitely should be a 1-seed. I think they should handle Ole Miss at home and Missouri on the road. The toughest game will probably be the season finale at Kentucky. While the Wildcats have underwhelmed, they are so young that you could see a big jump between now and March 9.
Looking ahead, Florida seems like the most likely lock. They have only 2 games according to kenpom with less than a 91% chance to win (@ Missouri 85, @ Kentucky 78). Duke and Kansas also seem like pretty solid bets. I think the last #1 seed will either go to a Big East or Big Ten team that wins both the conference and conference tourney. If no one does that, I think Syracuse/Louisville have the edge on any Big Ten team...there's just too many top teams in that league.
-
I think the last #1 seed will either go to a Big East or Big Ten team that wins both the conference and conference tourney. If no one does that, I think Syracuse/Louisville have the edge on any Big Ten team...there's just too many top teams in that league.
I'll go one step further... there will be more teams from the future C7 (including the invite 3 or 5) in the Sweet Sixteen than from the Big Ten.
Of course, I'm going to eat my words because Georgetown will probably screw it up by losing to an 11 seed.
-
I agree that FLA is headed to a #1. But the simple tweak I'd make is to slide Tommy's team in as the #2 at Dayton. Notice the other side with Butler on the headline bill as well. That's going to be one helluva good time if it materializes. See you boys there.
-
I think Indiana is a 3 seed, tops. Lotta losses left on the ledger for them in the big ten.
-
I think Indiana is a 3 seed, tops. Lotta losses left on the ledger for them in the big ten.
Unless the train derails, it's hard to imagine IU dropping below a 2-seed. IU has 7 more games with teams currently ranked in the top 15. Even if they go 2-5 in those games, that's still 2 quality wins and 5 "quality losses" (for lack of a better term). Not to mention, a team that was the preseason #1 typically gets a little more slack.
-
yep. the predictin' business is a tough road to hoe. Just the way I see it goin' down, but I've been colossally, criminally wrong before.
-
Unless the train derails, it's hard to imagine IU dropping below a 2-seed. IU has 7 more games with teams currently ranked in the top 15. Even if they go 2-5 in those games, that's still 2 quality wins and 5 "quality losses" (for lack of a better term). Not to mention, a team that was the preseason #1 typically gets a little more slack.
A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.
IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota. Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.
Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture. Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico. I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.
-
A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.
IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota. Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.
Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture. Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico. I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.
Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25? Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.
-
Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25? Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.
I'll bet a night of blackout drinking at the first C-7 conference tournament in Indy they don't drop out.
-
Second round (Round of 64) re-matches are prohibited. Third round (Round of 32) re-matches are allowed, but only to preserve other selection rules/guidelines.
In other words, the committee would need a compelling reason to match Florida & MU in the third round... it couldn't just match the two up for the sake of convenience. Lunardi does a decent job of forecasting the teams that will be in the tournament, but he's not so great with locations/matchups.
To me this is like an early mock draft where you dont factor on team needs until real close to the draft. It's way to early to be looking into matchup and potential scenarios that won't be allowed. You just are trying to get a general standing. If you fool around with I right now, it would lose accuracy since you are only shifting for hypotheticals.
-
Just so I'm clear, on Feb 11th IU drops out of the AP Top 25? Please, name the wager and I'll give you 2:1 odds to make it more entertaining.
Put the prediction in your signature line, and if you win, you can choose any post of mine that I'll put in my signature until the end of the season, and if I win, I get to choose any post of yours to put in your signature.
-
Put the prediction in your signature line, and if you win, you can choose any post of mine that I'll put in my signature until the end of the season, and if I win, I get to choose any post of yours to put in your signature.
Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit. Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative.
-
Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit. Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative.
If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.
-
A team with only three quality wins and seven "quality" losses isn't exactly the profile of a 2-seed.
IU has beaten one team that is ranked today... Minnesota. Personally, I think Minnesota is going to be exposed, just like those two other "quality" teams IU played: Georgetown and North Carolina.
Frankly, IU doesn't even deserve to be in the top 10 at this juncture. Florida, Butler and Gonzaga should all be in front of IU, and you could probably make a case for New Mexico. I bet on Feb 11th, they drop out of the AP-25.
I hope you're right about IU being overrated but think the real odds for them being out of the top 25 at any time this season, let alone by Feb 11, are minuscule.
-
Indiana is currently ranked #7 in the country. For Indiana to drop out, they'll have to lose more than the expected games. Here's their schedule blocks:
WEEK ONE: Penn State, Michigan State
Both at home. If they win both, they'll probably climb 2 spots and I would guess there is absolutely no way they drop out.
WEEK TWO: @ Purdue, Michigan
Losing to Michigan, even at home, won't hurt much. Losing to Purdue would. Regardless, they are very good at home, and Purdue hasn't been very good anywhere.
WEEK THREE: @ Illinois, @ Ohio State
This may be one the Illini need, and I expect they'd lose to Ohio State. IU is usually poor on the road, so a 2-loss week is possible.
In that stretch, I think they need to go 1-5 to drop out completely. Even if they go 2-4 (beating PSU and Purdue) I think they will be right around the 20-25 spots. They play at least one top-15 team each week, those don't hurt you that much.
-
If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.
This excites me, but I'm doubtful of the outcome.
-
Indiana is currently ranked #7 in the country. For Indiana to drop out, they'll have to lose more than the expected games. Here's their schedule blocks:
WEEK ONE: Penn State, Michigan State
Both at home. If they win both, they'll probably climb 2 spots and I would guess there is absolutely no way they drop out.
WEEK TWO: @ Purdue, Michigan
Losing to Michigan, even at home, won't hurt much. Losing to Purdue would. Regardless, they are very good at home, and Purdue hasn't been very good anywhere.
WEEK THREE: @ Illinois, @ Ohio State
This may be one the Illini need, and I expect they'd lose to Ohio State. IU is usually poor on the road, so a 2-loss week is possible.
In that stretch, I think they need to go 1-5 to drop out completely. Even if they go 2-4 (beating PSU and Purdue) I think they will be right around the 20-25 spots. They play at least one top-15 team each week, those don't hurt you that much.
I only see it happening if they beat PSU and lose the rest.
-
If I win, I know exactly what I'm going to put in your signature line, and rest assured, it will be enriching for all Scoopers.
I'm licking my chops over here... Please win Benny, and please lose IU.
-
Indiana is currently ranked #7 in the country. For Indiana to drop out, they'll have to lose more than the expected games. Here's their schedule blocks:
WEEK ONE: Penn State, Michigan State
Both at home. If they win both, they'll probably climb 2 spots and I would guess there is absolutely no way they drop out.
WEEK TWO: @ Purdue, Michigan
Losing to Michigan, even at home, won't hurt much. Losing to Purdue would. Regardless, they are very good at home, and Purdue hasn't been very good anywhere.
WEEK THREE: @ Illinois, @ Ohio State
This may be one the Illini need, and I expect they'd lose to Ohio State. IU is usually poor on the road, so a 2-loss week is possible.
In that stretch, I think they need to go 1-5 to drop out completely. Even if they go 2-4 (beating PSU and Purdue) I think they will be right around the 20-25 spots. They play at least one top-15 team each week, those don't hurt you that much.
Was thinking about this too but glad you wrote it up. Say they beat PSU tonight (I'd be floored if they lost) then lose to MSU at home. They probably fall to ~12 depending on what other teams do. Then if they beat Purdue and lose to Michigan at home, they fall to ~14-18. If they're towards the 18 range and then lose to both Illinois and Ohio State, I could see them falling out even going 2-4. But that would take some other borderline top 25 teams winning some big games in that last week as well. The odds are indeed slim, but it gives me yet another reason to root against IU!
-
CBB pays his bets handsomely. Great wine in California.
-
CBB pays his bets handsomely. Great wine in California.
Yes, I always pay my bets. By the way, has Rocky worn his IU sweatshirt yet for our Tom Crean bet? ;)
This bet with Benny, I'm not losing. They will be up to 4 or 5 tomorrow. Number 1, 3, 5, 6 all lost this week so they're moving up from 7. They could lose all 4 of their next games and likely still be ranked since three are on the road and two against ranked teams.
Fun to see the knees on the ground, begging for losses by some. During the NCAAs there will be people here having parties when it happens (and it happens for everyone except one team). I can't imagine the emotional carnage if they were to win it all (which I think there is not much of a chance).
-
I was wrong, they are up to #3 in the polls released today. Hard to see how the #3 team will drop out of the top 25 over the next 4 games on Feb 11th, especially since one of the games is against #1 and losing (if they do) will not hurt them much.
-
I was wrong, they are up to #3 in the polls released today. Hard to see how the #3 team will drop out of the top 25 over the next 4 games on Feb 11th, especially since one of the games is against #1 and losing (if they do) will not hurt them much.
Yeah, they're not gonna drop out in that time frame after beating MSU. A better (more interesting) bet would have been that IU will be ranked behind MU at that point. We have 3 games we should win coming up with one at Louisville. Do what we're supposed to do then upset the Ville and we could/should be top 15 with attrition. If IU loses 3 or 4 of their next 4, they would likely drop into the low to high teens.
-
Fun to see the knees on the ground, begging for losses by some. During the NCAAs there will be people here having parties when it happens (and it happens for everyone except one team). I can't imagine the emotional carnage if they were to win it all (which I think there is not much of a chance).
Preseason #1 in every poll, #3 at the end of January, tied for 1st in a conference said by most (including yourself) to be head and shoulders better than the rest. Why is there not much of a chance?
-
Marquette has what is essentially a rebuilding/regrouping team and is in the top 25 at the end of January! It is a good thing to think that this level can be essentially the program's floor.
Granted, a team like Miami is having a stellar season and probably will go farther than Marquette, but they are senior team that will drop significantly next year.
-
Marquette has what is essentially a rebuilding/regrouping team and is in the top 25 at the end of January! It is a good thing to think that this level can be essentially the program's floor.
Agree 100%. I have had this mindset all season. It has made it one of the most enjoyable to watch thus far in Buzz's tenure. Every bit of success is that much sweeter.
-
Preseason #1 in every poll, #3 at the end of January, tied for 1st in a conference said by most (including yourself) to be head and shoulders better than the rest. Why is there not much of a chance?
1) They haven't played the toughest part of the schedule yet and I anticipate they will be around 10 to 15 when all is said and done
2) Preseason rankings are a joke and mean nothing...they are so wrong, so often it is pitiful. I put zero credibility against them. Just look at who was in the rankings to start the year and where they are now. They are abysmal and predicting who is really quality.
3) Look at who wins the NCAA tournament in most years for the last decade or so, most of the winners have been a 1 or 2 seed. Since 2000 (12 tournaments, only 3 teams not seeded 1 or 2 have won it, all of them were three seeds. I suspect IU will be a 3 seed if they finish between 10th and 15th...so they have a chance, but I would put them in that next rung.
-
Yeah, they're not gonna drop out in that time frame after beating MSU. A better (more interesting) bet would have been that IU will be ranked behind MU at that point. We have 3 games we should win coming up with one at Louisville. Do what we're supposed to do then upset the Ville and we could/should be top 15 with attrition. If IU loses 3 or 4 of their next 4, they would likely drop into the low to high teens.
Yeah, that would be interesting. Incidentally, just looked at Minnesota has lost 4 straight now and they are still ranked, that's why I don't see IU bouncing out, even if they did lose all four.
-
Yes, I always pay my bets. By the way, has Rocky worn his IU sweatshirt yet for our Tom Crean bet? ;)
FWIW, yes (a couple months ago, but it was a tshirt and a hat). Just need to pull the pics off my camera to "pay up".
-
Yes, I always pay my bets. By the way, has Rocky worn his IU sweatshirt yet for our Tom Crean bet? ;)
This bet with Benny, I'm not losing. They will be up to 4 or 5 tomorrow. Number 1, 3, 5, 6 all lost this week so they're moving up from 7. They could lose all 4 of their next games and likely still be ranked since three are on the road and two against ranked teams.
Fun to see the knees on the ground, begging for losses by some. During the NCAAs there will be people here having parties when it happens (and it happens for everyone except one team). I can't imagine the emotional carnage if they were to win it all (which I think there is not much of a chance).
Then why didn't you take the bet?
-
FWIW, yes (a couple months ago, but it was a tshirt and a hat). Just need to pull the pics off my camera to "pay up".
Sounds good
-
Then why didn't you take the bet?
Benny, I did take the bet. http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=35635.msg442729#msg442729
"Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit. Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative."
-
Benny, I did take the bet. http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=35635.msg442729#msg442729
"Not the most attractive bet, I'd rather it benefit a charity, or enrich someone a bit. Terms accepted, but hopefully you are open to something a bit more creative."
So you "accepted the terms" but you didn't fulfill the condition specified to acknowledge that you accepted the bet. Moreover, you put a condition on your "acceptance" to which I didn't agree.
Next time, just take the bet when it's offered.
-
So you "accepted the terms" but you didn't fulfill the condition specified to acknowledge that you accepted the bet. Moreover, you put a condition on your "acceptance" to which I didn't agree.
Next time, just take the bet when it's offered.
Sorry, didn't read the part about the signature before hand. I've gone and done so. What condition did I change by the way?
-
I read terms accepted and thought this thing was going on.
-
I read terms accepted and thought this thing was going on.
Yeah, me too. I still think its on, nothing has changed
-
I read terms accepted and thought this thing was going on.
+1
As soon as I saw Indiana beat Michigan State, I was certain Chicos was going to win this bet.
-
I'm still game... however, Chicos did effectively set himself up to wiggle out had Indiana lost a game or two last week.
-
I'm still game... however, Chicos did effectively set himself up to wiggle out had Indiana lost a game or two last week.
No, actually I didn't, but glad it's still on. Terms accepted is terms accepted and my history here on bets shows I don't welsh. I just thought the stakes could be better, that's all. Glad its still on.
-
IU up over Purdue on the road by 35 points with 4 minutes to go. I'm thinking this bet is already over.
-
IU up over Purdue on the road by 35 points with 4 minutes to go. I'm thinking this bet is already over.
Care to double down on this one: "The C7+5 will have at least as many teams in the S16 this year as the Big Ten."
Of course, we may have to wait a while for the final determination, unless you'd permit me to define the Invite 5 right now (I promise not to include ND).
-
Care to double down on this one: "The C7+5 will have at least as many teams in the S16 this year as the Big Ten."
Of course, we may have to wait a while for the final determination, unless you'd permit me to define the Invite 5 right now (I promise not to include ND).
Benny, you're an often insightful poster, a true asset to the board. As a gambler? Not so much. Fair odds against you on your first bet were probably 50-1. This one is only about 5-1 against you so you're getting better.
-
Benny, you're an often insightful poster, a true asset to the board. As a gambler? Not so much. Fair odds against you on your first bet were probably 50-1. This one is only about 5-1 against you so you're getting better.
Nothing wrong with going all-in on a pair of 2's when the money isn't real.