(The juicy bits of an SI article)
In the spin cycle of conference realignment, every movement raises more questions. Here's a look at what's the next step for both the Catholic 7 and the Big East.
What's next for the Big East?
There's some empathy for new Big East Commissioner Mike Aresco, who walked into a bad situation. And he did so with no experience as a collegiate administrator, making an already difficult position virtually impossible.
At the same time, his lack of communication with schools has frustrated some members. Specifically, Aresco has done a poor job communicating about money issues, be it potential television money or the amount of money schools should expect from exit fees.
Aresco was brought in to execute a television deal to secure the league's future. And in an environment where schools' futures and decisions are based on potential television revenue, Aresco hasn't been able to deliver information consistently.
Aresco's biggest blunder was moving too fast on adding Tulane, which alienated the Catholic school athletic directors. Aresco went through the league's presidents, who found Tulane an attractive option because it's an elite academic school. The lack of conversations with athletic directors hurt Aresco's credibility and exposed his inexperience with dealing with the complicated political dynamics of conferences. The addition of Tulane helped kickstart the basketball movement, with the irony being that the basketball crowd in the Big East pushed for Aresco's hire. The question is whether Aresco can recover and salvage a more eastern-based league in some form.
The problem with the leftover teams in the Big East is that two of the would-be linchpin schools -- Cincinnati and UConn -- are shooting off signal flares that they want to join other leagues. How do you base a league around schools that don't really want to be there?
How big will the Catholic 7 league become?
The most pressing question in the future of the Catholic 7 is how the league will shape up. Initially there was a debate about whether the league would go to 10 or 12 schools.
As of now, the answer is 12. Why? A favorite new buzz word of the realignment era -- inventory. If there are 12 teams, there will be 20-percent more conference games -- 216 vs. 180. That means 36 extra league games available, and that's quite a bit of content for programming-starved networks. (The total inventory will be much greater.)
The coaches, who have virtually no say in realignment, would prefer a 10-team league with a double round-robin. But inventory rules, so look for the league to go to 12 teams.
Who will be added?
The teams that will definitely be added to the mix are Xavier and Butler. Creighton and Dayton are the next two on the list, and should be considered near definite. (Dayton's biggest issue would be opposition from Xavier.)
That makes 11. From there, Saint Louis is a favorite for spot No. 12.
What makes the Billikens a strong candidate is their market, but it's important to remember that in this strain of realignment, markets shouldn't make a huge difference. Markets are critical for, say, the Big Ten, which has its own television channel, or the SEC, which is plotting one. The Catholic 7 have zero chance at having their own television channel. So they need programs like Dayton and Creighton with big arenas, rabid fan bases and winning traditions more than they do teams in big cities that command little attention.
Who else is in the running for slot No. 12? VCU has been bandied about, but they are neither private nor religious. They are light years ahead of Saint Louis as a program in terms of recent success and facilities infrastructure. VCU has proven through Jeff Capel, Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart that they are built to last.
Davidson is a sleeper option, as it's private but lacks a religious affiliation. Saint Joseph's could get a look, but they are unlikely because Villanova threw a fit when the Big East took Temple.
Where will we see the games?
A week ago, the feeling among the schools was that they'd be happy with $2 million per year from television. Multiple sources have indicated the $3 million per school figure is looking like a more accurate number. Who will pony up?
The lead suitor right now is Fox, which is starting its own national sports cable network that's expected to be on the air this fall. The glut of inventory means that it will inevitably be split between multiple networks, but Fox has been most aggressive so far.
There would be some symmetry to Fox using Catholic 7 basketball as a bedrock of its newly founded sports network. Some other upstart cable television network did that with Big East basketball in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It seemed to be a pretty good formula for ESPN.
The other leading candidate would be NBC/Comcast, which made a huge bid for the Pac-12 that ultimately ended up forging an unlikely alliance between Fox and ESPN. NBC/Comcast is certainly interested, as they been a persistent factor in the race for Big East programming before things began to fall apart in that league.
Could Fox buy it all and sell some off to other places? That seems feasible. Could there be a multi-network deal? That's highly possible as well.
What would surprise people is that ESPN's fingerprints were nowhere to be found on this Catholic 7 breakaway. The chances of them bidding for it -- especially with the potential eye-popping price tag -- are minimal. Could ESPN end up with some inventory? Sure. It could end up with a share if the Catholic 7 want to maintain a tie to ESPN. (There's certainly some nostalgia from ESPN for Villanova, St. John's and Georgetown). But for now, the chances of ESPN as the primary carrier of this league are slim. They're already overloaded with regular-season basketball that gets minimal ratings. Why overpay for more?
When will this happen?
This is the most asked question in college sports right now because it impacts so many different schools' schedules. The Catholic 7 league is expected to be playing by 2014-15. But there's a chance that it could happen next year. How good of a chance? Estimates from sources range from a 15-percent chance to a 35-percent chance. But no one really knows.
There are a dizzying amount of factors in play here -- the Catholic 7 doesn't have a name, commissioner, television deal or even know who will be in it. There is a lucrative postseason tournament to figure out and inevitable issues over exit fees and NCAA unit distribution.
It would be a mad scramble to get things off the ground in the fall, considering that soccer practice (yes, all the other sports will be coming, too) starts in about seven months.
But the one factor that can't be ignored is that the Big East's basketball contract ends at the end of this season. It would be awkward to start a deal with a league for one year when it will look radically different the next.
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20121221/catholic-7-future/#ixzz2Fkm6Nbjo
$2 or $3 million a year per school?
Maybe I'm missing something, but weren't we getting a little over $1 mil a year playing UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame? How do we magically make the jump to $2 mil playing Dayton, St. Louis, and at best, Georgetown?
By no means am I disappointed in that number (it's phenomenal, consider I think most of us thought the current BE annual payout was the limit at best), I'm just highly skeptical.
Quote from: xghostsniperx on December 21, 2012, 11:49:00 PM$2 or $3 million a year per school?
Maybe I'm missing something, but weren't we getting a little over $1 mil a year playing UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame? How do we magically make the jump to $2 mil playing Dayton, St. Louis, and at best, Georgetown?
By no means am I disappointed in that number (it's phenomenal, consider I think most of us thought the current BE annual payout was the limit at best), I'm just highly skeptical.
It's all about need. When we signed the deal with ESPN, Big East basketball was a huge part of their programming, but they also had other options. Now both Fox and NBC are trying to make a run at the cable sports crown. With 2 solid bidders looking for programming, the price is driven up. NBC especially has a need at the moment with the NHL not on, though I suspect that will be solved long before we hit their airwaves.
These networks need games they can push nationwide. The other major conferences have deals or networks of their own. This would allow them to try to compete with ESPN by pushing live games of a major conference. It probably only gets up to $3M if both are bidding, but considering what NBC Sports paid for the EPL (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/richard_deitsch/10/28/nbc-confirms-epl-deal/index.html), $250M over 3 years -- which was more than triple what Fox Sports is currently paying ($23M per year), there's evidence that these new networks will pay big dollars, and in some cases overpay, for programming.
Are we going to be called the "Catholic 7+ League"? Obviously the number would be based on the number of teams in the league, but is the Catholicism really going to be THE defining characteristic? The article made it sound like it would be.
Quote from: xghostsniperx on December 21, 2012, 11:49:00 PM
$2 or $3 million a year per school?
Maybe I'm missing something, but weren't we getting a little over $1 mil a year playing UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame? How do we magically make the jump to $2 mil playing Dayton, St. Louis, and at best, Georgetown?
By no means am I disappointed in that number (it's phenomenal, consider I think most of us thought the current BE annual payout was the limit at best), I'm just highly skeptical.
That's the old contract. Everyone was going to make more.
There is a new board to discuss the new C7 league. Join your fellow BE brothers to discuss our future and get a better understanding on what every fan base is thinking.
http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=772
If its 12, then I hope it is Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, VCU and Gonzaga.
Quote from: Norm on December 22, 2012, 02:02:28 AM
If its 12, then I hope it is Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, VCU and Gonzaga.
Would be great, but I think you're gonna have to add at least one more western team to get Gonzaga. Maybe something like Wichita St, but probably a St. Mary's or LMU
Quote from: tommyc6 on December 22, 2012, 12:40:56 AM
Are we going to be called the "Catholic 7+ League"?
I read that the C7 is trying to purchase the Big East name from the remaining schools. So that option is still on the table.
Quote from: Norm on December 22, 2012, 02:02:28 AM
If its 12, then I hope it is Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, VCU and Gonzaga.
Thamel clearly stated that Xavier and Butler are locked. Creighton and Dayton are near locks. SLU is the likely 12th, with VCU knocking at the door.
Thamel doesn't believe Gonzaga is a player at this point, which he's been on that horse for awhile.
$3 million a school? I'll accept Dayton for that kind of money. That's 10 times more than Butler and Xaiver are getting now.
Quote from: Utile et Dulce on December 21, 2012, 10:57:53 PM
Who will be added?
The teams that will definitely be added to the mix are Xavier and Butler. Creighton and Dayton are the next two on the list, and should be considered near definite. (Dayton's biggest issue would be opposition from Xavier.)
That makes 11. From there, Saint Louis is a favorite for spot No. 12.
What makes the Billikens a strong candidate is their market, but it's important to remember that in this strain of realignment, markets shouldn't make a huge difference. Markets are critical for, say, the Big Ten, which has its own television channel, or the SEC, which is plotting one. The Catholic 7 have zero chance at having their own television channel. So they need programs like Dayton and Creighton with big arenas, rabid fan bases and winning traditions more than they do teams in big cities that command little attention.
Thamel has been reading my stuff.....plagiarism!!! ;D
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/video/business-of-st-louis-basketball-sportfolio-12-5-q3IlBixQRziemMUDBgXMIg.html
On 12/5/12 Bloomberg posted this video regarding the SLU basketball model. It follows one of SLU's biggest benefactors, Dr. Richard Chaifetz around SLU' facilities. It's worth a look.
SLU's "hold up" for a consistently good hoops program, has been its current 25 year school President, Larry Biondi. He's in his 70's now, and won't be there forever. Long term, SLU has a lot of potential. When SLU is good a market of close to 3 million pays attention with tv and attendance. SLU has new $80million facilities, included tour in the video. They currently rank amongst the top of the A-10 in attendance along with Xavier and Dayton. As many remember, SLU was getting 17k back in the early 90's at the old Arena. If and when SLU needs to play a game or games in a larger venue, the 22k Scottrade Center is a few miles away, and the 40k plus (for hoops) Edward Jones Dome is also down the street. Both regularly hold NCAA games and Regionals.
SLU will be good this year and next year, then drop off 1-2 years because of the Majerus situation, then have an opportunity for long term success.
Biondi's problems are well documented with Majerus and in previous eras. The video is a good place for people to start to get updated on where SLU was, is, and wants to be.
Quote from: Aughnanure on December 22, 2012, 02:06:08 AM
Would be great, but I think you're gonna have to add at least one more western team to get Gonzaga. Maybe something like Wichita St, but probably a St. Mary's or LMU
Not exactly sure why this would matter. A trip to California isn't that much different than one to the midwest. And Wichita isn't really western.
Quote from: shoothoops on December 22, 2012, 10:27:45 AM
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/video/business-of-st-louis-basketball-sportfolio-12-5-q3IlBixQRziemMUDBgXMIg.html
On 12/5/12 Bloomberg posted this video regarding the SLU basketball model. It follows one of SLU's biggest benefactors, Dr. Richard Chaifetz around SLU' facilities. It's worth a look.
SLU's "hold up" for a consistently good hoops program, has been its current 25 year school President, Larry Biondi. He's in his 70's now, and won't be there forever. Long term, SLU has a lot of potential. When SLU is good a market of close to 3 million pays attention with tv and attendance. SLU has new $80million facilities, included tour in the video. They currently rank amongst the top of the A-10 in attendance along with Xavier and Dayton. As many remember, SLU was getting 17k back in the early 90's at the old Arena. If and when SLU needs to play a game or games in a larger venue, the 22k Scottrade Center is a few miles away, and the 40k plus (for hoops) Edward Jones Dome is also down the street. Both regularly hold NCAA games and Regionals.
SLU will be good this year and next year, then drop off 1-2 years because of the Majerus situation, then have an opportunity for long term success.
Biondi's problems are well documented with Majerus and in previous eras. The video is a good place for people to start to get updated on where SLU was, is, and wants to be.
Biondi isn't on good terms with anybody at the school. However, the Board of Directors is saying they aren't ready to dump him just yet.
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/embattled-slu-vice-president-resigns/article_42d16d16-1cda-5f49-add1-ee7b3106f3cf.html
I don't expect SLU's board to remove Biondi soon, nor possibly ever. They support him. However, long term, he isn't going to be there. He's been there 25 years. He's in his 70's. His long known problems behind the scenes have become much more public. See the resignation letter of the law school dean. It was scathing. Biondi runs SLU like a maffia don. He did a lot of good things there, non-sports related, earlier in his tenure there. And he will be defiant until the end, but, again, he won't be there long term. In spite of him, SLU has new $80million facilities and some other things going for it.
I think SLU has some nice potential, but if I'm forming a new conference, they need to show me a long term plan on their commitment to elite basketball.
I think they can get there, but they need to have a clear plan on how they are going to do it. I don't want them just "along for the ride" on this deal. This conference can't afford that.
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on December 22, 2012, 12:33:18 PM
I think SLU has some nice potential, but if I'm forming a new conference, they need to show me a long term plan on their commitment to elite basketball.
I think they can get there, but they need to have a clear plan on how they are going to do it. I don't want them just "along for the ride" on this deal. This conference can't afford that.
Which is why SLU should be left out for the time being. VCU has established itself better over the past few years, at least. But would GU oppose like X may for UD? Drama.
Quote from: slingkong on December 27, 2012, 02:14:17 PM
Which is why SLU should be left out for the time being. VCU has established itself better over the past few years, at least. But would GU oppose like X may for UD? Drama.
Get the feeling the G'Town crowd is very pro VCU. I think after Butler and Xaiver VCU is their next pick.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on December 27, 2012, 02:41:00 PM
Get the feeling the G'Town crowd is very pro VCU. I think after Butler and Xaiver VCU is their next pick.
Just the DC connection? That's always hard to tell (from an outsider's point of view) how teams that close to each other feel about being in the same conference.
Quote from: Skatastrophy on December 27, 2012, 02:44:52 PM
Just the DC connection? That's always hard to tell (from an outsider's point of view) how teams that close to each other feel about being in the same conference.
Know some administration and alum. The G'Town boards also seem to really like VCU. If you recall "hoya"-<insert something here> had a lot of positives to say about VCU here on this board.
I like VCU too, I'd take them over Dayton or SLU.
VCU is over 100 miles from Georgetown and in a different market (Richmond). Why would Georgetown be opposed to adding them? That's farther away than MU and DePaul.
This is all really good stuff in the article. Thanks for sharing!
$3 M is pretty eye-popping. If that happens, this split will be one the best things we've ever done!
Think of the possibilities and how much easier it will be to get quality programs to make the jump to the C7.