MUScoop

Double digit wins over Pomeroy Top 10: Wade over Kentucky 2003, Novak over UConn 2006, Amigos over WVU 2009 & Cadougan over Wisconsin yesterday

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Junior Cadougan dominated Wisconsin for a 60-50 win, marking only the 4th time in 32 chances that Marquette has beaten a Pomeroy Top 10 team by double digits.  The other three were Dwayne Wade over Kentucky 83-69 in 2003, Steve Novak over Connecticut 94-79 in 2006 and the Three Amigos over WVU 75-53 in 2009. (complete list of games vs. Pomeroy 32 at bottom)  table.tableizer-table {  border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;  font-size: 12px; }  .tableizer-table td {  padding: 4px;  margin: 3px;  border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th {  background-color: #104E8B;   color: #FFF;  font-weight: bold; }  

Wisconsin entered the game with the 9th best offense in the country at 114.1 points per trip down the court and Marquette shut them down at 75.76 points per 100 trips.  This was largely due to the 2nd best player in the game, Vander Blue, coming up with 4 steals to help force 10 Wisconsin turnovers in the first half - more than their average for a game - and on 20.3% of their trips.  Perhaps more importantly, MU held Wisconsin to a slightly below average 29.3% offensive rebounding percentage - an area where Wisconsin has sometimes dominated MU.  The one item where both teams were awful was at the line, where if both teams had hit the average percent of free throws MU would have won 65-57 instead of 60-50 (FT%+- shows MU hit 5 fewer FT than they should have and Wisconsin 7).

Eff.eFG%TO%OR%FTRFT%+-[/tr]

Marquette	90.91	51.0%	22.0%	25.0%	32.7%	(5)
Average	100.00	48.0%	21.1%	32.7%	37.6%	-
Wisconsin	75.76	39.4%	20.3%	29.3%	44.2%	(7)

Using the Game NetAvg Cadougan was dominant at 9.89, but when you consider how clutch he was when the Badgers threatened, he was way better than the stats can measure.  A couple of times when the shot clock was about to expire he went to the hoops and scored or got the ball to Vander Blue for a trey.  His 6-to-1 assist to turnover for the game was clutch with the rest of the team struggling with turnovers (including a disturbing 7 by Lockett).  But most importantly, on a night when the rest of the team hit 25% from the line (3 of 12) Cadougan went 4 of 5.

Blue was easily the 2nd best player, but there were also excellent contributions from Davante Gardner, who physically beat up Jared Berggren (22nd best player in Value Add) while holding him scoreless in the first half, Jamil Wilson, and how about Derrick Wilson.  In the Florida game, D. Wilson joined Blue as the only two players with a good game, and his 3 assists made MU point guards 9 assists and 1 turnover for the game.

vs. WisconsinFG (3pt)FGAFTFTAFT%ORDRTPATOBLKSNet Avg[/tr]

Junior Cadougan, G	7	10	4	5	0.800	0	4	18	6	1	0	1	9.849
Vander Blue, G	7 (2)	14	1	3	0.333	0	5	17	2	0	0	4	5.941
Davante Gardner, F	5	9	-	2	0.000	1	7	10	0	2	3	0	1.444
Jamil Wilson, F	4	6	-	-	0.000	1	2	8	1	2	0	1	1.411
Derrick Wilson, G	1	3	-	2	0.000	2	0	2	3	0	0	2	1.033
Steve Taylor Jr., NA	-	-	-	1	0.000	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
Juan Anderson, F	-	1	-	-	0.000	1	3	0	0	2	1	1	0.000
Jake Thomas, G	-	2	-	-	0.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Chris Otule, C	-	-	-	2	0.000	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
Trent Lockett, G	1 (1)	7	2	2	1.000	2	2	5	1	7	0	0	0.000
TOTAL	25	52	7	17	0.412	7	29	60	13	15	6	9
Wisconsin	17	52	9	23	0.391	12	21	50	13	13	3	7

The list of all games Wisconsin has played against teams in Pomeroy's top 10 are listed below.  MU is 8-24 in those games, and they are ordered from most lopsided win to most lopsided loss. Ironically the previous game at Florida was MU's 2nd biggest loss ever to a Top 10 team. Pomeroy's ratings date back to Dwyane Wade's last season, when MU beat Kentucky 83-69.

DateSeasonPom RnkopponentResultLocationMargin[/tr]

Sat Jan 10	2009	9	West Virginia	W, 75-53		Home	22
Tue Jan 3	2006	4	Connecticut	W, 94-79		Home	15
Sat Mar 29	2003	2	Kentucky	W, 83-69		Neutral	14
Sat Dec 8	2013	9	Wisconsin	W, 60-50		Home	10
Sat Dec 3	2012	5	Wisconsin	W, 61-54		Away	7
Thu Feb 24	2011	10	Connecticut	W, 74-67	OT	Away	7
Sat Dec 8	2008	5	Wisconsin	W, 81-76		Away	5
Thu Mar 27	2003	3	Pittsburgh	W, 77-74		Neutral	3
Tue Dec 29	2010	8	West Virginia	L, 63-62		Away	-1
Sat Mar 1	2008	7	Georgetown	L, 70-68	OT	Home	-2
Thu Feb 17	2005	5	Louisville	L, 64-61		Home	-3
Sun Mar 22	2009	6	Missouri	L, 83-79		Neutral	-4
Wed Nov 21	2008	8	Duke	L, 77-73		Neutral	-4
Sat Dec 9	2007	8	Wisconsin	L, 70-66		Home	-4
Sun Mar 1	2009	4	Louisville	L, 62-58		Away	-4
Sat Dec 20	2004	5	Wisconsin	L, 63-59		Away	-4
Mon Nov 22	2011	2	Duke	L, 82-77		Neutral	-5
Sat Dec 11	2011	7	Wisconsin	L, 69-64		Home	-5
Sat Jan 23	2010	4	Syracuse	L, 76-71		Away	-5
Sat Feb 4	2006	7	Villanova	L, 72-67		Away	-5
Sat Jan 7	2012	6	Syracuse	L, 73-66		Away	-7
Tue Jan 25	2011	10	Connecticut	L, 76-68		Home	-8
Sat Jan 8	2011	4	Pittsburgh	L, 89-81		Away	-8
Sat Dec 12	2010	9	Wisconsin	L, 72-63		Away	-9
Wed Feb 25	2009	3	Connecticut	L, 93-82		Home	-11
Mon Feb 4	2008	6	Louisville	L, 71-57		Home	-14
Wed Mar 4	2009	5	Pittsburgh	L, 90-75		Away	-15
Sat Feb 10	2007	5	Georgetown	L, 76-58		Away	-18
Thu Jan 17	2008	6	Louisville	L, 71-51		Away	-20
Sat Apr 5	2003	1	Kansas	L, 94-61		Neutral	-33
Thu Nov 29	2013	2	Florida	L, 82-49		Away	-33
Wed Jan 26	2005	5	Louisville	L, 99-52		Away	-47

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/12/double-digit-wins-over-pomeroy-top-10.html

"Wisconsin entered the game with the 9th best offense in the country at 114.1 points per trip down the court and Marquette shut them down at 75.76 points per 100 trips."

Should this read 114.1 points per 100 trips down the court?

Also, is it just a matter of preference when you use pts/100 trips rather than pts/trip? 

Quote from: g0lden3agle on December 09, 2012, 08:44:31 AMShould this read 114.1 points per 100 trips down the court?

Also, is it just a matter of preference when you use pts/100 trips rather than pts/trip?

To the first...yes. To the second, that's how Pomeroy rates it.

I know that every ranking system has its good parts and bad parts, but any ranking system that could have this Wisconsin team in its top 10 is seriously -- wait, make that fatally -- flawed.

It's Dwyane not Dwayne

Quote from: MU82 on December 09, 2012, 09:51:17 AM
I know that every ranking system has its good parts and bad parts, but any ranking system that could have this Wisconsin team in its top 10 is seriously -- wait, make that fatally -- flawed.

No, it's not. Almost all of the computer systems have UW ranked overly high because of their style and their proficiency against cupcakes. Pomeroy's best explanation (and he's said he doesn't personally believe UW is as good as his system rates them) is imagine you are really good at something and you do it 345 times. Let's say you're a lights out free throw shooter, you take 345 free throws, make 320 of them, hit backboard or rim out 24, and airball one. That airball is effectively Wisconsin. That's the really bad outlier. If you say his system is fatally flawed, that's the same as saying that a 92.8% free throw shooter that airballed one out of 345 attempts is fatally flawed as a free throw shooter. It wouldn't be accurate, nor would it be a fair statement.

Warren Nolan ratings has Wisconsin 94th.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/npi

RPI has them at 104 right now.

Gasser really kills them.  Even with him, in that conference (easily the best in college hoops this year), they are going to struggle mightily.

Quote from: brewcity77 on December 09, 2012, 01:27:29 PM
No, it's not. Almost all of the computer systems have UW ranked overly high because of their style and their proficiency against cupcakes. Pomeroy's best explanation (and he's said he doesn't personally believe UW is as good as his system rates them) is imagine you are really good at something and you do it 345 times. Let's say you're a lights out free throw shooter, you take 345 free throws, make 320 of them, hit backboard or rim out 24, and airball one. That airball is effectively Wisconsin. That's the really bad outlier. If you say his system is fatally flawed, that's the same as saying that a 92.8% free throw shooter that airballed one out of 345 attempts is fatally flawed as a free throw shooter. It wouldn't be accurate, nor would it be a fair statement.

I don't follow the Pomeroy rankings, so I'll accept your word that this is an aberration.

Fact is, Wisconsin is not a very good team. They will have to work to be top 10 in the Big Whatever. (That is intended hyperbole, sans teal.)

Quote from: g0lden3agle on December 09, 2012, 08:44:31 AM
"Wisconsin entered the game with the 9th best offense in the country at 114.1 points per trip down the court and Marquette shut them down at 75.76 points per 100 trips."

Should this read 114.1 points per 100 trips down the court?

Also, is it just a matter of preference when you use pts/100 trips rather than pts/trip? 

Ah yes, bounce back and forth between NBA and college where they are listed differently, but it is 1.141 points per trip.

On Pomeroy and Wisconsin:

In 2009, he had them 29th they won their first round game, which is what the top 32 should do, and in the other 4 years they were knocked out one game earlier than their Pomeroy level would have picked them, and in light of that including a narrow loss to Syracuse last year and eventual runner up Butler the year before, I think Pomeroy usually is more accurate on Wisconsin than others.

The reason I believe Nolan and other are way off on them is I believe they all use point spreads, which is very distroting when dealing with a team that plays at a slower pace.  If Wisconsin beats a team 48-40 and another team beats the same common opponent 96-80, a rating system relying on spreads believes Wisconsin is much worse than the other team, but I woudl say they are not (though I am not going to actually run Pythagorean to figure out the exact).  I really believe Wisconsin is cheated by other systems not unfairly helped by Pomeroy in most years, but someone could study to compare.

As for this year, I do believe they are a bit high because part of his rating through the first several games is based on preseason perception and I'm not sure he really factored Gasser leaving.  That's why I like Value Add (obviously i'm biased).  Gasser is a top 100 projected player at a 5.88%, so when you take him out Wisconsin drops from the 25th best projected team to the 53rd best team, but I believe Ryan has them solidly in the tournament by the end, which would be good for MU's resume.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 09, 2012, 01:38:51 PM
Warren Nolan ratings has Wisconsin 94th.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/npi

RPI has them at 104 right now.

Gasser really kills them.  Even with him, in that conference (easily the best in college hoops this year), they are going to struggle mightily.

I can't speak to the accuracy of the Nolan Ratings, don't know anything about them.

RPI is an extremely flawed system in March and totally worthless in December.

BIG has 6 good teams and 6 not good teams. I'm sure the computer will rank them #1 all year. They're likely the best, but if it's as much a no brainier as you think they should have done better than a tie in the ACC/ Big 10 challenge.

Quote from: Lennys Tap on December 10, 2012, 01:27:59 AM
I can't speak to the accuracy of the Nolan Ratings, don't know anything about them.

RPI is an extremely flawed system in March and totally worthless in December.

BIG has 6 good teams and 6 not good teams. I'm sure the computer will rank them #1 all year. They're likely the best, but if it's as much a no brainier as you think they should have done better than a tie in the ACC/ Big 10 challenge.

All the systems are flawed.  Honestly, Sagarin is still my favorite rating system.  It has Wisconsin 24th.

The ACC B1G challenge is about matchups, but generally don't disagree with you. There were four games (I believe) that featured both teams ranked.  Big Ten won three of those, only losing the Duke OSU game at Duke.  The ACC seemed to make their hay in games that featured lesser teams (BC vs Penn State, Maryland vs Northwestern, Va Tech vs Iowa, etc).  Yes, I would agree with you that the B1G is a bit top heavy...having 3 teams in the top 4 like they did last week is deinitely going to do that.

Big Ten is number one in Sagarin with the Big East at number 2.  Seems about right to me.  Big East could have a nice year in it's final assembled together with the power schools.