MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: MURFC on October 31, 2012, 07:28:02 AM

Title: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: MURFC on October 31, 2012, 07:28:02 AM
Interesting blog/article about Cuban and the decision to draft Crowder.  It doesn't seem like this guy would miss an opportunity to say 'I told you so'.

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/mavericks/post/_/id/4692307/jae-crowder-proving-mark-cubans-computer-right
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: bamamarquettefan on October 31, 2012, 11:58:23 AM
Great piece - and just for the record I was one who had him down as a Top 20 prospect,while others had him top 3.  I did have him as one of the top 3 college players.

I actually had a couple of NBA team officials tell me when they met with me that they thought it was ironic that after all my writing last year, pretty much every analytics guy agreed Crowder was the potential steal in the draft.  Nice start to the season last night, so hope the great summer league and preseason play out over the season.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 02:42:02 PM
It's going to be fun watching both Jae and Jimmy blossom into impact NBA players this year.  They'll both get plenty of TV time.

Not to digress but you'd think the perennially losing Milwaukee Bucks just might have seen this potential?  Nah.  What decade did they trade Ray Allen?  Didya see him light up the Celtics last night playing for the World Champion Heat?
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: GGGG on October 31, 2012, 03:41:56 PM
The whole Ray Allen mess was the result of a cheap owner who wasn't going to pay him big $$$...and a desperate GM and head coach who tried to swing for the fences to try to energize an underperforming team.  Of course it failed miserably.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 08:24:38 PM
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 31, 2012, 03:41:56 PM
The whole Ray Allen mess was the result of a cheap owner who wasn't going to pay him big $$$...and a desperate GM and head coach who tried to swing for the fences to try to energize an underperforming team.  Of course it failed miserably.

Possibly worst trade in Bucks history.  Freakin' Shawn Kemp as I recall.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Cooby Snacks on October 31, 2012, 08:50:33 PM
Quote from: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 08:24:38 PM
Possibly worst trade in Bucks history.  Freakin' Shawn Kemp as I recall.

Gary Payton.  One of the best point guards ever, but past his prime and with an expiring contract and no intention of signing with the Bucks.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: 4everwarriors on October 31, 2012, 08:52:33 PM
Quote from: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 08:24:38 PM
Possibly worst trade in Bucks history.  Freakin' Shawn Kemp as I recall.


Bucks have had some real gems. Hard for them to get their collective heads out of their collective rectums. But, then again, it starts at the top.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on October 31, 2012, 09:13:12 PM
Quote from: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 08:24:38 PM
Possibly worst trade in Bucks history.  Freakin' Shawn Kemp as I recall.

Detlef Schrempf as I recall.

Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: esotericmindguy on October 31, 2012, 09:44:47 PM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on October 31, 2012, 11:58:23 AM
Great piece - and just for the record I was one who had him down as a Top 20 prospect,while others had him top 3.  I did have him as one of the top 3 college players.

I actually had a couple of NBA team officials tell me when they met with me that they thought it was ironic that after all my writing last year, pretty much every analytics guy agreed Crowder was the potential steal in the draft.  Nice start to the season last night, so hope the great summer league and preseason play out over the season.

We're all very proud of you...after one NBA game.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Lennys Tap on October 31, 2012, 10:33:12 PM
Quote from: esotericmindguy on October 31, 2012, 09:44:47 PM
We're all very proud of you...after one NBA game.

Be sarcastic if you wish, but Bama has been way out in front on this and many other topics. Consistently interesting and accurate analysis.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: NersEllenson on October 31, 2012, 10:36:00 PM
Quote from: Lennys Tap on October 31, 2012, 10:33:12 PM
Be sarcastic if you wish, but Bama has been way out in front on this and many other topics. Consistently interesting and accurate analysis.

Agree - no need to take a cheap shot at a guy who provides more valuable content and analysis than practically the rest of the board combined.  Keep up the great work Bama and thanks for your always interesting analysis.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on October 31, 2012, 10:46:04 PM
Quote from: esotericmindguy on October 31, 2012, 09:44:47 PM
We're all very proud of you...after one NBA game.

Everybody knows you can tell more from an scrimmage.

Amiright?
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Lacrosse218 on October 31, 2012, 11:01:48 PM
Quote from: jsglow on October 31, 2012, 08:24:38 PM
Possibly worst trade in Bucks history.  Freakin' Shawn Kemp as I recall.

Worst trade in Bucks history is easily when they traded Dirk Nowitzki for Robert "Tractor" Traylor on NBA draft night in 1998.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: bamamarquettefan on October 31, 2012, 11:34:11 PM
Quote from: esotericmindguy on October 31, 2012, 09:44:47 PM
We're all very proud of you...after one NBA game.
So he wasn't listed as a top 100 prospect going into the NBA season - so not even a 3rd round pick (even if they still had one) when I pegged him.

I called him an All-American to responses like, "an All-American at slapping the ball out of bounds" early in the season when he was still not on a single draft board.

I put in print that I was quite confident that he would not only make the NBA but be playing this year when most said he did not have a position but could make it in Europe.

In the mock drafts I gave to several NBA teams before the draft I pegged him as a top 20 value and posted publicly that he would either go end of first round or by one of Cleveland's two picks (33rd or 34th) when most were still predicting he MIGHT get drafted at the end of the first round.  BTW, he was the 34th pick if you are forgetting.

i then said he would be one of the top performers going into the Summer League, and out of several hundred players and at the end of camp he was selected to the All-Summer League team as one of the top 10 (or so, may have been on or two more) players in Summer League.

As a reminder, here is my piece from July 2011:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/07/trying-to-explain-jae-crowders.html

And if you skipped last season, Crowder was an All-American.  Noone had Crowder on any preseason lists, but NBC Sports featured a piece on that article.

Most said he'd never see an NBA court, so having a nice first NBA game is the result of the last 500 days that you apparently missed.

Are you going to watch Marquette games this season?
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 01, 2012, 06:35:38 AM
Quote from: Lacrosse218 on October 31, 2012, 11:01:48 PM
Worst trade in Bucks history is easily when they traded Dirk Nowitzki for Robert "Tractor" Traylor on NBA draft night in 1998.

That was easily a top 5 worst trades in NBA history.  A future HOF player for a guy with an eating problem.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: jsglow on November 01, 2012, 08:44:42 AM
Quote from: Lacrosse218 on October 31, 2012, 11:01:48 PM
Worst trade in Bucks history is easily when they traded Dirk Nowitzki for Robert "Tractor" Traylor on NBA draft night in 1998.

I stand corrected.  Had erased that from my mind.  Can you guys imagine what a cult hero Dirk would have been in Milwaukee? 

And the prior post mentioning with Gary Payton is appreciated.  Way past his prime when he came here for Ray.  The other thing that was so troubling was that Ray loved Milwaukee and would have gladly spent the lion's share of his career here.  Man the Bucks are a poorly run organization.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: GGGG on November 01, 2012, 08:49:04 AM
Quote from: jsglow on November 01, 2012, 08:44:42 AM
Man the Bucks are a poorly run organization.


Yep.  All starts at the very top.  Odd that two figures that are somewhat beloved in the Milwaukee area (Selig and Kohl) are two of the worst owners of professional sports franchises that this city has seen.  

Each gets a pass because they brought a team here (Selig) or saved a team from leaving (Kohl), but they both really suck at actually running the team.

Hey and they were roommates in college too right?  I'm not going to comment on that...
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: LloydMooresLegs on November 01, 2012, 08:51:03 AM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on October 31, 2012, 11:34:11 PM
So he wasn't listed as a top 100 prospect going into the NBA season - so not even a 3rd round pick (even if they still had one) when I pegged him.

I called him an All-American to responses like, "an All-American at slapping the ball out of bounds" early in the season when he was still not on a single draft board.

I put in print that I was quite confident that he would not only make the NBA but be playing this year when most said he did not have a position but could make it in Europe.

In the mock drafts I gave to several NBA teams before the draft I pegged him as a top 20 value and posted publicly that he would either go end of first round or by one of Cleveland's two picks (33rd or 34th) when most were still predicting he MIGHT get drafted at the end of the first round.  BTW, he was the 34th pick if you are forgetting.

i then said he would be one of the top performers going into the Summer League, and out of several hundred players and at the end of camp he was selected to the All-Summer League team as one of the top 10 (or so, may have been on or two more) players in Summer League.

As a reminder, here is my piece from July 2011:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/07/trying-to-explain-jae-crowders.html

And if you skipped last season, Crowder was an All-American.  Noone had Crowder on any preseason lists, but NBC Sports featured a piece on that article.

Most said he'd never see an NBA court, so having a nice first NBA game is the result of the last 500 days that you apparently missed.

Are you going to watch Marquette games this season?

He slices...he dices!!  Well done!  ;D ;D
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 01, 2012, 09:18:25 AM
Bama is easily the best poster on this board.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 01, 2012, 09:24:06 AM
So Cuban gets praise for drafting Crowder, but doesn't get panned for all the wild misses he has had over the years?

seems legit.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: MURFC on November 01, 2012, 10:21:15 AM
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on November 01, 2012, 09:24:06 AM
So Cuban gets praise for drafting Crowder, but doesn't get panned for all the wild misses he has had over the years?

seems legit.

The strategy seems to be working out pretty well for him.  I think I need to start doing that.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: QuetteHoops on November 01, 2012, 10:29:48 AM
Quote from: jsglow on November 01, 2012, 08:44:42 AM
I stand corrected.  Had erased that from my mind.  Can you guys imagine what a cult hero Dirk would have been in Milwaukee? 

And the prior post mentioning with Gary Payton is appreciated.  Way past his prime when he came here for Ray.  The other thing that was so troubling was that Ray loved Milwaukee and would have gladly spent the lion's share of his career here.  Man the Bucks are a poorly run organization.

Everybody always brings up that trade but the fact of the matter is there is no scenario where Dirk would have ended up in Milwaukee...http://courtsideanalyst.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/for-the-last-time-the-bucks-never-had-nowitzki/ (http://courtsideanalyst.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/for-the-last-time-the-bucks-never-had-nowitzki/)

Like the link explains the Bucks really never had a chance at him because if the Bucks didn't agree to the trade the Mavericks would have just taken Dirk anyway before the Bucks even had a pick.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Hards Alumni on November 01, 2012, 10:57:24 AM
Quote from: MURFC on November 01, 2012, 10:21:15 AM
The strategy seems to be working out pretty well for him.  I think I need to start doing that.

They are headed for a long streak of mediocrity.  Dirk is old, and there isn't much left on the roster to replace what they are losing.  They haven't had a good draft in FOREVER.

Vince Carter - 14 years
Elton Brand - 13 years
Shawn Marion - 13 years
Elton Brand - 10 years
Dirk Nowitzki - 14 years

Without those 5 players who are all definitely in the sunsets of their careers the team is Bobcats bad.  Time to tank and hope for an Anthony Davis caliber player in the next couple of years... Or trade some of those washed up stars for young guys with potential.
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 01, 2012, 11:06:40 AM
Quote from: Jamailman on November 01, 2012, 09:18:25 AM
Bama is easily the best poster on this board.

+1....and if he really wanted to name drop, there would be much bigger names.  Bama may be the best poster on ANY basketball board...and the fact he shares it with MU fans first is "tremendously tremendous" in itself.  He puts the "Scoop in 'MU Scoop'".
Title: Re: Crowder benefited from sabermetrics?
Post by: karavotsos on November 01, 2012, 01:36:39 PM
Definitely excited about Crowder's opportunity with the Mavs in a good system where he is going to get the opportunity to prove himself.  The only thing I would add to the advanced stats analysis, which is obviously significant if it helped Crowder get an opportunity with Dallas that he would not have gotten otherwise as a 6'5" 2 year JC, 2 year Big East power forward, is that another thing that could be a difference maker and make him shine at this level is the type of leadership he shows on the floor.

If you watched the summer league games, he ran the defense.  He was telling guys where to go and what to do.  And they were good.  Obviously, it will take time for him to see if he can develop into that type of leader on an NBA team, but Dallas is a good place for that to happen.  He showed his versatility against LA, but as far as what he was doing, I would say he was fitting in.  The only fear is that when the Mavs are totally healthy, Carlysle feels some obligation to Keep giving guys like Brand and Vinsanity their minutes.  That would obviously hurt Jae's devlopment.  I think the chances of that are low: 1) because with all the old guys on the team, it seems like some of them will always be hurt; 2) he has the owner in his corner. 

My hope is that by mid-season, he is running a second unit with Branden Wright, Beaubois, Mayo and Marion, or something similar.  Some small, athletic aggressive outfit. 
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