With Lockett on board, I'm starting to think the 2012-2013 team could be as good or better than this past year's squad.
I know losing Jae and DJO's scoring will be nearly impossible to replace, but assuming our bigs stay healthy, we'll have the best defensive team Buzz has ever put together, not to mention one of the best in the conference. And unlike most teams that hang their hat on defensive, the stingier D should actually help increase the offensive tempo as Buzz's offense is set up to work best off a miss.
We'll have more length, depth, balance and experience next season than we've had in a long time, and I think that will result in a really special season, especially since expectations are relatively low.
**Not to make unfair comparisons, but with 10 guys who can all compete at the BEAST level (and one maybe – Jake), we could look a lot like Cuse did this year, with no real stars, just a lot of real good, athletic players...
A healthy Otule and Gardner for the full season is the key. If we get that, this team could blow up some serious dynamite.
I am also very optimistic. Need both Otule and Gardner to be fully reecovered and remain injury free.
If we stay healthy, I think we potentially have one of the best center positions in the country with Otule and Gardner. Maybe neither is the complete "elite" package, but few teams would be better at that position than we would be. Add in two solid seniors in Cadougan and Lockett, two experienced returning junior starters in Wilson and Blue, and a ridiculously deep bench with multiple guys that should be able to compete at a high-major level and I think we could be very good. I think top-4 in the Big East and 25+ wins isn't out of the realm of possibility, though obviously we'll need to see a schedule before I can make my likely too bold predictions.
Based upon recent experience, I think you can assume that our bigs will NOT stay healthy. Good thing JW has some experience playing out of position.
As always I'm what Eric Cartman would call a Negative Nancy.
I think our best returning player is Jamil Wilson. Is a team whose best player is Jamil Wilson a top 25 team? I wonder where the points are going to come from. If we start Otule, Blue, Cadougan and J Wilson that's 3 poor scorers and a complimentary scorer, which means Lockett or Mayo is going to have to become prolific. That's not a great rebounding team either. We're going to need to turn people over and get it done in transition.
So I think next year is a down year in the cycle (back on the NCAA bubble) and then we start back up again the following year.
I was excited before the Lockett announcement and I'm not sure that Trent changed things much. Here's why:
1) Returning -- Jae and DJO were wonderful but I was honestly expecting Todd Mayo and Jamil Wilson to pick up the slack. I see nothing to change this and one way or another, I see us with a lot more depth than we had a year ago.
2) Vander -- I'm still a Vander believer. I think he has to pick his game up a bit and find his shot, but I think more consistency from Vander and working to ensure his natural talent takes him in the right direction and I think we're on the verge of an all Big east player! I hope so anyway, provided Vander works on his shot this summer.
3) Our Centers -- I thought we had an outside shot at a Final Four this year until Chris and Davante went down with injuries. If they're both back and at 100%, I think an Elite 8 for sure is not out of the question. If they're not 100%, I'm not sure where this team will be.
4) Intangibles -- Buzz' teams outhustle their opponents. Look at the intro video last year to see what I mean. The work, the boot camps and the intensity of training will pay dividends down the stretch. Buzz also has another season under his belt and more experience.
In the 1980s. I used to long for the day when I could say this with impunity...... "We're Baaaaaaackkkk!" I really think we are Back and I'm not so sure I mind being badly under-rated by the AP and Coaches. I'd rather sneak out of the bushes that confront someone head on. It makes saying, "I told you so" all the more fun.
don't we have to hedge our bets with the forthcoming Hiroshima / Chernobyl...
Quote from: CTWarrior on May 07, 2012, 03:45:45 PM
As always I'm what Eric Cartman would call a Negative Nancy.
I think our best returning player is Jamil Wilson. Is a team whose best player is Jamil Wilson a top 25 team? I wonder where the points are going to come from. If we start Otule, Blue, Cadougan and J Wilson that's 3 poor scorers and a complimentary scorer, which means Lockett or Mayo is going to have to become prolific. That's not a great rebounding team either. We're going to need to turn people over and get it done in transition.
So I think next year is a down year in the cycle (back on the NCAA bubble) and then we start back up again the following year.
That depends on how good you think J Wilson will be when given more room to operate within the offense. I am optimistic that he will follow the trend of good 3-4 players we've had who took big strides under Buzz. As his playing time increased this season, so did everything else in his game. I have no reason to think that won't continue to happen in a more prominent scoring role for him next year as well.
Offense will obv be the question on everyone's mind all off-season, but with a D like we will field next year, I'm pretty confident we can get enough wins (and avoiding enough bad losses) to get a 3-6 seed in next year's Tourney.
Quote from: CTWarrior on May 07, 2012, 03:45:45 PMI wonder where the points are going to come from. If we start Otule, Blue, Cadougan and J Wilson that's 3 poor scorers and a complimentary scorer, which means Lockett or Mayo is going to have to become prolific. That's not a great rebounding team either. We're going to need to turn people over and get it done in transition.
Just to play devil's advocate to some of this...where are the points
not going to come from? Vander, Davante, Todd, Jamil, Lockett, all of them have shown the ability to put up points at the D1 level. Junior and Otule are competent supplemental scorers (5-8 ppg). We may not have one dominant scorer, but when you have 5-7 guys that can put it in the hoop, that can go off for 12-20 on any given night, I think that's harder to stop than 1-2 guys that are really good.
And as far as rebounding, Gardner is a great offensive rebounder. Blue and Lockett are both excellent rebounding guards. Granted, Otule and Wilson are probably only average rebounders (or even a bit below that) but while we may not have the dominant frontcourt rebounders, we have quite a few guys that can rebound when you take position out of the equation.
We have enough quality at guard to replace DJO, in my opinion. Someone will step up and we'll be deeper at guard/wing. Not a concern.
Jae, did so much. But JWilson was coming along and should be solid and even freaky at times next year. Throw in a healthy Otule or Gardner and my expectations are similar to last years team. I think if either Otule or Gardner are healthy all year, and if JWill is solid, as I expect he will be, we are as good as last year. We should be deeper.
Edit: Historically, I'm pretty negative going into a season. Watching teams under Buzz, I've become more positive. Compare next years team with Buzz's second team. No comparison.
My expectations for next year, assuming a few things go right and we avoid the big injuries, and assuming that Taylor can play some and JWilson continues to improve, are actually better than last year. A lot of assumptions, as required, but we could be in a position to make a run and with a little luck make it past the sweet 16.
I feel like people are going overboard with the whole depth issue. We said the same thing going into last year. "We finally have a full roster of Big East players! Everyone is going to contribute! Even Juan is a stud who is so much like Francisco Garcia!" Let's face it, Buzz plays a 7 man rotation when it comes down to it. The depth is a positive because when some of those 7 guys gets into foul trouble or maybe we face an injury to 1 of those 7 guys we have a more talented option coming in to replace the guy, but the replacement will still be raw and very inexperienced because Buzz plays 7 guys. We are not going to have 10 guys playing 20 minutes each. That's just not how it goes with Buzz. I know everyone will say Buzz has better options this year and that everyone, even the walk on, can play, but that's what we said going into last year. It doesn't happen. If the more talented players remain more effective even when playing 35 mpg than a bench player does when he is fresh off the bench, there is no reason to play the bench player who will be less effective. That's how Buzz views it, and that's how it should be done. If Jamil can play 35 mpg, there's no reason to give Steve Taylor 15 minutes just because "we have depth." I would put any amount of money on our regular rotation being absolutely no more than 8 guys. Most likely 7 guys with spot minutes for the rest, some getting more than that in games based on maybe some matchups or injuries/foul trouble.
As far as being better than this season, I for one am not expecting that at all. We finished 2nd in the Big East this season. I would be shocked with a Big East championship next year.
Last year I was pessimistic about how the team would play after the losses of Butler, Buycks and Fulce. Then Otule got hurt and the turning point was Crowder stepping up and being a manchild. The second half of the season he was a beast and he earned BE POY and second team All American awards.
The team needs someone like Crowder to step forward, not to the extent that Crowder achieved award wise, but enough to make up for Crowder/DJO loss. I still believe Mayo has the offensive firepower, even though he went through an absolute brutal shooting stretch during the second half of the season. The guy just has the basketball "hops". The addition of Lockett, along with Mayo will or should make up for the DJO loss.
Otule hasn't stayed healthy for a season and who knows how his recovery will effect his play this year, but with Gardner in shape, as others have commented, they are nice options at the #5 position.
The variables will be the other positions and how much they matured since the season ended. One of them needs to step it up in order to have a season like they did last year. Who that will be is unknown, but who knows how it will play out. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the beginning of the year.
Benny B's Expectations for 2012:
1) BE Coaches' Pre-Season Poll: 8th overall
2) Win vs. Bucky
3) Maui Finals
4) Double bye in BET
5) 4-seed in Dance
6) Sweet Sixteen
7) Buzz to be rumored to be interested in Baylor, Florida, UCONN, Duke and UTSA by end of April 2013.
8) SoG Season Champion - Davante Gardner
9) Number of new screen names for Chicos - 3
Next years team will be good but there are many good teams. A lot of things have to fall into place for them to be REAL GOOD as in top 2-3 in BE, 1-3 seed good.
Teams then to exceed expectations when their leader is also their best player. Last year that was Jae. Is Junior going to be the best player on the team. I don't think so. Who is going to take the last shoot with the game on the line. Mayo? Lockett?
I'm pretty confident they will make the Tournement and if you can do that in a "rebuilding year" that ain't bad. But better than last years team. That is asking a lot.
Excited about next year, but also think the loss of Jae will be huge. I like Jamil W, but am not as bullish on him as those who think he could be a potential early entry candidate after this season. Believe JW will do a good job filling the void left by Jae - but do not expect Jamil to have the all around impact Jae did on games for MU...in my view, JW is still a year away from being what Crowder was last year..
Excited the most about Todd Mayo and Davante - I expect both will take major steps forward in their game. Vander? I HOPE to see a big step forward offensively, but don't see too much of an increase in his scoring production over last year. Also believe Jake Thomas will get some minutes, and provide a very nice spark/sniper option off the bench MU has not really had under Buzz.
The sum of all of the above..with a healthy Otule returning and an improved Junior + Lockett? I see Elite 8 as a very real possibility..perhaps Final Four. Anything less than a Round of 32 would be a MAJOR, MAJOR disappointment. Sweet 16 is probably what should be expected.
IF our centers stay healthy (this is really key) then JW and JA don't have to play out of position. This will be better both for their development as players as well as for the team. Obviously, if you have players at positions they are effectively suited for, the team gets better results. I think both JA and JW would have advanced as players if they'd spent more time as "wings" last year. Really looking forward (hoping our 5s both stay healthy) to seeing them progress this year. ;D
Quote from: AZWarrior on May 07, 2012, 05:03:34 PM
IF our centers stay healthy (this is really key) then JW and JA don't have to play out of position. This will be better both for their development as players as well as for the team. Obviously, if you have players at positions they are effectively suited for, the team gets better results. I think both JA and JW would have advanced as players if they'd spent more time as "wings" last year. Really looking forward (hoping our 5s both stay healthy) to seeing them progress this year. ;D
Maybe, but if both our 5s stayed healthy last year then Jamil plays far less and is far less assertive when he is on the court. You could see how much he progressed throughout the season. He got more and more comfortable every single game after OTule got hurt, and especially after Gardner went down. The experience, even if it was at the 5, was invaluable to Jamil's growth as a player.
Few weeks ago wasn't sure about how we would adjust to life without DJO and Jae but with the recnt events and Lockett coming in we should be as good next year. 2013-2014 I say F4 or bust.
I think its a stretch to say that we can replace the two best players on the #2 team in the Big East with the best player from the #10 team in the Pac 12 and conclude rationally that we're going to be an improved team.
Lockett will take away some of the potential downside next year, but I don't think we'll stay the 2nd best team in the Big East. I think a reasonable expectation is that we'll only fall to 4th, behind Lousville, Syracuse and (ugh) Notre Dame. My hope is that we stay ahead of Cincy, Georgetown & St. Johns (all those freshmen will have ayear of experience), that Providence (with Ledo and Dunn) is still a year away, and Pitt and Villanova go through another rebuilding year.
I personally think our regular season won't be as good, but will have a better March showing. When we had to depend so heavily on Jae or DJO it was only a matter of time before they would be locked down or would have off shooting nights.
With next year i think we have more scoring options overall, and the team will be more balanced. I was excited for the upcoming season well before we got Trent, and I still think we will do better than last years NCAA performance.
our PG got eaten alive in the tourney, I dont see that improving in 12, plus who hits the clutch basket when you need it? Jae brought a big set of nuts to the party as the enforcer, I see us a little soft next yr.
I fully expect Jamil and Todd to take big steps forward and be standouts. I just don't have any faith in Vander.... I really, really want to, and I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't.
I predict Lockett will be a contributor, but isn't going to make a dent on the SoG board.
Quote from: RushmoreAcademy on May 07, 2012, 06:34:42 PM
I fully expect Jamil and Todd to take big steps forward and be standouts. I just don't have any faith in Vander.... I really, really want to, and I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't.
I predict Lockett will be a contributor, but isn't going to make a dent on the SoG board.
Lockett will be our best player. Lock it.
Sweet Sixteen, baby!
Unless Hiroshima is more horrific than suggested!
Lockett really improves next year's team and gives us offense we didn't have. We already looked very good defensively. I'm going to peg us as 4th-6th in the BEast and a one game winner (round of 32) in the NCAA. But a great March could certainly propel this team to a third consecutive Sweet 16. The good news is that we'll call that a 'rebuilding year' long forgetting the horrors of Mike Deane or Bob Dukiet basketball when an NIT bid would have been welcome in many years.
I think we will be better than last year's injured team. The one that played in the NCAA tournament without Otule and a Gardner that could not jump with his bad knee. We will not be as good as last year's team, if it had no injuries. The NCAA is a crapshoot as to how far a team goes. We could be a better team, but lose in the first round. We could be a team not as good and get to great 8. I think Lockett starts at small forward, which makes me feel very optimistic. Blue is not big enough to play the three in the Big
East. Blue and Mayo will fight for DJO's spot. As for Cadougan being pressed, he had trouble when the other team could press him and fill the lanes with long quick players, which resulted in him having passes stolen. Assuming Blue starts at the two, he is a better ball handler than DJO and Lockett also can handle the ball, which will take a lot of pressure off Cadougan.
I'm excited about the suffocating trap defense that DWil, Mayo, Blue, Lockett and JWil can terrify opponents with. Picture the ball jetting down court in about 2 seconds after a steal to a tomahawk (get the Warrior reference?) thunderdunk!
(And if the Heat are in town the next night, more DWade photo ops.)
How long to hoops season?
Quote from: wadesworld on May 07, 2012, 05:06:14 PM
Maybe, but if both our 5s stayed healthy last year then Jamil plays far less and is far less assertive when he is on the court. You could see how much he progressed throughout the season. He got more and more comfortable every single game after OTule got hurt, and especially after Gardner went down. The experience, even if it was at the 5, was invaluable to Jamil's growth as a player.
In retrospect, regarding Jamil, good logic and valid points - you're right on.
I stand erected.... ::)
Three point shooting and rebounding are still a concern, though Lockett will help. Jae just did so much for that team last year, they were reliant on him. Sometimes that void can be filled by committee, I'm just not sure that the returning group can do it.
I will feel a lot better about next year if there's no more 5PM Friday press releases between now and the end of the month.
I expect buzz to work his azz off this year to make these guys good, in hopes of landing an equivalent or better job so he can hot foot it from "ivy" Larry and pilarz next off season.
Quote from: Stone Cold on May 07, 2012, 09:21:16 PM
I expect buzz to work his azz off this year to make these guys good, in hopes of landing an equivalent or better job so he can hot foot it from "ivy" Larry and pilarz next off season.
I think Buzz will leave in a few years but to do it next year would be dumb. The 2013-14 team will be stacked
Quote from: madtownwarrior on May 07, 2012, 03:57:46 PM
don't we have to hedge our bets with the forthcoming Hiroshima / Chernobyl...
Are you familiar with the term: broken record?
Quote from: MUEagle1090 on May 07, 2012, 11:47:10 PM
I think Buzz will leave in a few years but to do it next year would be dumb. The 2013-14 team will be stacked
I also believe he'll stay for at least the stacked season.....then again, TC left when the Amigos were seniors, but I just really doubt Buzz wouldn't want to do some steamrolling with that roster.
I think a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves here.
We are losing Jae Crowder. BEAST POY. We won't be replacing his double double every night.
While we do have a lot of young guys with another year under their belts... what have we really seen from them? Blue can play basketball really well... except for getting the ball in the cylinder. Cadougan was totally disappointing last year. Jamil Wilson looked better every game, but we aren't quite sure what he can do when he is back in his natural wing position. Otule is what he is; a big shot altering guy who can't rebound that well and can't pass/take a pass. Gardner is what he is as well; a sneaky good offensive forward with an insanely fast release... who can't play a lick of defense. Mayo can shoot, but he needs to be consistent. Juan Anderson is a mostly unknown but hopefully he can have a shot playing his natural position. People who say we have a more 'balanced' scoring team really mean that we don't have a guy who can take over the game.
While there are a lot of things about MU's game that I am bullish about, I think we need to temper our expectations.
I'm going with 6th in the BEAST, a 7 seed in the tourney and out in the first round next year. Our best player will be Vander Blue, but he won't be our leading scorer.
I think we will finish around 24-9 +/-5
A pretty broad spectrum yes, but we have some BIG unanswered questions.
If everyone returns and we're healthy, (two big ifs, I know), I think we'll be very solid. In the backcourt we lose DJO and gain Lockett. In the frontcourt we lose Crowder and gain Otule. I see the former as a slight dropoff, the latter a decided one. On the plus side, a year of added experience for Blue, Junior, Jamil, Gardner and Mayo. Assuming improvement from these five makes our top 7 close to last year's. Any real help from the rest of the roster could mean we're even slightly better, especially by the end of the season.
MU should be deeper, but not as much talent at the top.
I expect inconsistency early in the year, and hopefully they will improve a lot as the year goes on.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on May 08, 2012, 07:25:30 AM
While there are a lot of things about MU's game that I am bullish about, I think we need to temper our expectations.
I'm going with 6th in the BEAST, a 7 seed in the tourney and out in the first round next year. Our best player will be Vander Blue, but he won't be our leading scorer.
I agree with your outlook, except I'd replace Vander with Jamil. I think Wilson has a really nice year, his numbers will probably be great too, maybe a little inflated.
99% of the topics on this site are a broken record (kind of like the same 6 plots on the 10 seasons of Deadliest Catch):
Here are the topics:
1) Crean is a douche / no we should be thankful for Crean
2) Bo is evil & Badgers are slow-tempo'd / no they are well coached and a model program
3) MU can never replace their departing senior class (for the past 6 seasons)
4) Hoopaloop is Chicos
5) Vander is not liked or not living up to expectations
and recent entries:
1) Pilarz and Willimas are driving Buzz out
2) Pliarz and Williams are raising the academic standard resulting into Hiroshima
The next insightful post that is not one of these topics should win a prize...
Quote from: LittleMurs on May 08, 2012, 12:09:23 AM
Are you familiar with the term: broken record?
Quote from: madtownwarrior on May 08, 2012, 12:03:47 PM
99% of the topics on this site are a broken record (kind of like the same 6 plots on the 10 seasons of Deadliest Catch):
Here are the topics:
1) Crean is a douche / no we should be thankful for Crean
2) Bo is evil & Badgers are slow-tempo'd / no they are well coached and a model program
3) MU can never replace their departing senior class (for the past 6 seasons)
4) Hoopaloop is Chicos
5) Vander is not liked or not living up to expectations
and recent entries:
1) Pilarz and Willimas are driving Buzz out
2) Pliarz and Williams are raising the academic standard resulting into Hiroshima
The next insightful post that is not one of these topics should win a prize...
The next post from you that isn't just mindless whining should win a prize...
It's the off-season, topics will be repeated often.
Quote from: Stone Cold on May 07, 2012, 09:21:16 PM
I expect buzz to work his azz off this year to make these guys good, in hopes of landing an equivalent or better job so he can hot foot it from "ivy" Larry and pilarz next off season. compete at a high level in the Big East, get to and win games in the NCAA tournament, and go out and get a couple big time recruits for the 2013 class.
Fixed... I mean, de-broken-recorded.
Quote from: wadesworld on May 07, 2012, 06:37:43 PM
Lockett will be our best player. Lock it.
I hope you're right Wade.
Actually, I don't, in the fact that I hope someone steps up and plays out of their mind, but Lockett exceeding my expectations would make me thrilled.
Quote from: lab_warrior on May 08, 2012, 01:03:01 PM
Fixed... I mean, de-broken-recorded.
You can never have enough cow bell, toots.
(http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/8099/cowbellxtreme2.gif)
Expectations? Championship, my friend. And dat's with mini-Buzz coaching da team.
Top 15, best defensive team in at least 15 years
Quote from: Canadian Dimes on May 08, 2012, 04:46:48 PM
Top 15, best defensive team in at least 15 years
That's a good point.
You might see them just wear some teams out.
It will be interesting to see if they have a significant advantage in the last 10min. of games given their depth and defense prowess.
Quote from: Canadian Dimes on May 08, 2012, 04:46:48 PM
Top 15, best defensive team in at least 15 years
This is another reason why 2013-2014 looks to be real juicy....
Were only losing Cadougan who lets be honest is not a huge piece in making up that "best defensive team"
So that whole defense will be back again, with a year of experience and more talent.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on May 08, 2012, 05:11:59 PM
This is another reason why 2013-2014 looks to be real juicy....
We're only losing Cadougan who lets be honest is not a huge piece in making up that "best defensive team"
So that whole defense will be back again, with a year of experience and more talent.
And Lockett