MUScoop

I think so

I hope so, but it is very difficult to do.

Final four in the next 5 years ... that is 20 only spots.

In the last 5 years only 15 different teams made the final four (14 if you exclude Memphis)

Kentucky
VCU
Butler (2)
Connecticut (2)
West Virginia
Michigan State (2)
Duke
Villanova
North Carolina (2)
UCLA (2)
Memphis (vacated)
Kansas
Georgetown
Ohio State
Florida

It is likely that in the next 5 years these 20 spots will again be taken by 15 or so different teams.  So, when put in this context, it shows what an accomplishment it would be to make a final four in the next five years.

Unless you want to argue that MU would make it as a Cinderella team, they would also probably have to be a top 10 ranked team (and even top five), and in the finals, if not win, the Big East Conference Tourney.
To make a final four, they would have to be that good.  

Question for those that voted yes ... over the next five years do you also think MU will be a top 10 team again?  Top 5?  Do you think they will make the finals of the Big East Tourney?  Win it?

For the record I voted yes, and would say yes to all the questions I posed.  I expect the next few years will see players come to MU to make this expectation, not a hope.

Add later ....

5 of the 15 teams above are from the Big East

2011 Connecticut = Won the BE Tourney
2010 WVU = Won the BE Tourney
2009 Connecticut finished the year ranked #2 (#1 the week before the end of the season)
       Villanova finished the year ranked #10
2007 Georgetown = Won the BE Tourney

Again, if you think we are going to the final four in the next 5 years, then you also think we will hang a BE tourney banner three weeks before that happens.  You also think MU will again be a top 10 team, maybe even a top 5 team.

Yes to all of these?

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on March 23, 2012, 07:28:17 PM
Final four in the next 5 years ... that is 20 only spots.

In the last 5 years only 15 different teams made the final four (14 if you exclude Memphis)

Kentucky
VCU
Butler (2)
Connecticut (2)
West Virginia
Michigan State (2)
Duke
Villanova
North Carolina (2)
UCLA (2)
Memphis (vacated)
Kansas
Georgetown
Ohio State
Florida

It is likely that in the next 5 years these 20 spots will again be taken by 15 or so different teams.  So, when put in this context, it shows what an accomplishment it would be to make a final four in the next five years.

Unless you want to argue that MU would make it as a Cinderella team, they would also probably have to be a top 10 ranked team (and even top five), and in the finals, if not win, the Big East Conference Tourney.
To make a final four, they would have to be that good. 

Question for those that voted yes ... over the next five years do you also think MU will be a top 10 team again?  Top 5?  Do you think they will make the finals of the Big East Tourney?  Win it?

For the record I voted yes, and would say yes to all the questions I posed.  I expect the next few years will see players come to MU to make this expectation, not a hope.

Nice Post

I do. I think next year we will have a top 15-20 team. I know all the negatives and realize what we're losing, but I think we have more coming back than most realize. And with expected development from Jamil, Vander, Juan, Taylor and Taylor, Otule, and Gardner along with the addition of Burton, I see a very good 2013-14. And the talent level seems to be rising, not declining. I feel good about the odds of guys like Looney and Stone in the coming years.

Of course, I also have faith in Buzz. He has us trending upward, and we can't go much further up without reaching a Final Four.

I worried about making the tournamnet next year.

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 23, 2012, 08:22:36 PM
I do. I think next year we will have a top 15-20 team. I know all the negatives and realize what we're losing, but I think we have more coming back than most realize. And with expected development from Jamil, Vander, Juan, Taylor and Taylor, Otule, and Gardner along with the addition of Burton, I see a very good 2013-14. And the talent level seems to be rising, not declining. I feel good about the odds of guys like Looney and Stone in the coming years.

Of course, I also have faith in Buzz. He has us trending upward, and we can't go much further up without reaching a Final Four.

Next year seems like more of a rebounding year from losses of DJO and Jae. We should make the tourney but definately will not be as good as this year though. I also think 2013-14 looks very bright. If we can get Looney and Stone (and Brandon Key) the future will be very good for us

Last year 11 BE teams made the tourney.  This year 9.

As long as we are in the top half of the BE, we'll make the tourney.  That is doable.

After the Amigos left, most expected NIT at best. We were a 6-seed. After Lazar left, we wondered where the leadership would come from. Jimmy led us to the Sweet 16. After Jimmy left, people wondered how we would improve on 9-9 without our best player returning. We earned our best seed in 9 years.

This team will be fine. We might not be a 3 next year, but I would be surprised if we were worse than a 6. Next year's team will be good. Better than most are expecting. But Buzz does that every year, so I guess none of this pessimism should surprise me.

Quote from: bilsu on March 23, 2012, 08:38:04 PM
I worried about making the tournamnet next year.

Well good thing you got it out of the way early, now you can refocus on being excited about next years team.

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 23, 2012, 09:05:55 PM
After the Amigos left, most expected NIT at best. We were a 6-seed. After Lazar left, we wondered where the leadership would come from. Jimmy led us to the Sweet 16. After Jimmy left, people wondered how we would improve on 9-9 without our best player returning. We earned our best seed in 9 years.

This team will be fine. We might not be a 3 next year, but I would be surprised if we were worse than a 6. Next year's team will be good. Better than most are expecting. But Buzz does that every year, so I guess none of this pessimism should surprise me.

I agree we'll be fine, Brew, but I disagree that pessimism drives expectations around here. Fact is, all the concerns around here were shared by coaches and basketball "experts" everywhere. Sooner or later, coaches, experts and our own fans will get it - Buzz is one of those elite coaches who regularly exceeds what are fair and logical expectations.

It took Coach McGuire 10 years to get there.

Coach Williams will make it sooner. The foundation has been laid. The culture is established. The history of the program has been brought back to life. And, a complex, efficient system has been put into place.

The Warriors will make it without a doubt.

The program continues to develop via Top 50 incoming players plus the occasional stud JUCO going forward. In poor years, we'll be middle. BEast and a bubble NCAA team.  An average year we'll have a reasonable Sweet 16 shot. And in big years,  be top 10 with our eye on Final 4. I say it happens once in next 5-7 with 3-4 more Sweet 16 during that run.

Don't assume anything.  Great programs have off years, look at Pitt and Nova.  The biggest concern with our team next year is we are not retuning a scorer.  Hayward was a scorer.  Butler was a scorer.  DJO and Crowder are scorers.  We don't have an elite scorer, and will be starting 2 guards who cannot hit jump shots, which is a very big problem.

Quote from: KipsBayEagle on March 24, 2012, 02:19:23 PM
Don't assume anything.

You mean like how you are assuming none of the guys coming back are scorers?

Quote from: KipsBayEagle on March 24, 2012, 02:19:23 PM
Don't assume anything.  Great programs have off years, look at Pitt and Nova.  The biggest concern with our team next year is we are not retuning a scorer.  Hayward was a scorer.  Butler was a scorer.  DJO and Crowder are scorers.  We don't have an elite scorer, and will be starting 2 guards who cannot hit jump shots, which is a very big problem.

So what would you call Mayo? Plus nobody saw Butler becoming the scorer he ended up being. Also what about TJ Taylor?

While I understand getting to FF needs talent and luck but think Buzz will get us there. What I think is funny is anyone that voted no but thinks Buzz will be here five more years. If you think it will not happen not sure why you would think Buzz would stay here. Hopefully Buzz wants to make FF and has higher standards than some of his supporters.

I would rather see a poll on:

Are we going to get a McDonald's AA in the next 5 years? If so, how many?

And

Are we going to get a top 10-20 Center in the next 5 years?

Quote from: 77ncaachamps on March 24, 2012, 05:06:36 PMI would rather see a poll on:

Are we going to get a McDonald's AA in the next 5 years? If so, how many?

And

Are we going to get a top 10-20 Center in the next 5 years?

Yes on both counts.

The program is definitely getting better and Buzz is getting better.  MU should definitely expect to improve.  There will be more talent and better balance.

Buzz had no 2007 or 2008 class and just took the team to two Sweet 16's in four years while making the tourney each year.  He found 5 good JUCOs (Buycks, Fulce, Jimmy, Jae, DJO) kept the program going. 

Considering two season changing injuries (Dom James, Chris Otule) and two high impact transfers (Taylor and Mbakwe), Buzz has done a heck of a good job. 

Now, Buzz has coaching experience and a lot of players with stars next to their names.  I am excited to see how he does with talent. 

I look of next year to be a strong year.  Buzz returns an experienced line up.  There is no reason that Buzz cannot add Otule back and figure out a way to get DJO/Crowder production from Blue, Mayo, and J Wilson.  Gardner should improve and Junior better come back with a chip on his shoulder.  We have not seen Gardner's ceiling.  One of the underclassman will step up. 

Quote from: 77ncaachamps on March 24, 2012, 05:06:36 PM
I would rather see a poll on:

Are we going to get a McDonald's AA in the next 5 years? If so, how many?

And

Are we going to get a top 10-20 Center in the next 5 years?

Looney and Stone should fill both of those spots.

I worry less about not having a scorer than not having any shooters.

Gardner, Jamil, maybe even Vander and Cadougan will get some points. But who will be our floor-spreaders and zone-breakers? When DJO and Jae weren't on from the outside, we only had Mayo ... and then he disappeared for more than a month.

Even if you say Mayo will be more reliable from outside next year, that still doesn't fill the bill. It's a pretty big step to say Jamail or one of the freshmen will do it.

I don't think we're going to be bad next year, but I do worry about the lack of shooters keeping us from being an automatic NCAA team. You gotta shoot the ball from outside to win.

Quote from: MU82 on March 24, 2012, 06:05:14 PM
I worry less about not having a scorer than not having any shooters.

Gardner, Jamil, maybe even Vander and Cadougan will get some points. But who will be our floor-spreaders and zone-breakers? When DJO and Jae weren't on from the outside, we only had Mayo ... and then he disappeared for more than a month.

Even if you say Mayo will be more reliable from outside next year, that still doesn't fill the bill. It's a pretty big step to say Jamail or one of the freshmen will do it.

I don't think we're going to be bad next year, but I do worry about the lack of shooters keeping us from being an automatic NCAA team. You gotta shoot the ball from outside to win.

What about Jake "Jimmer" Thomas?

Quote from: 77ncaachamps on March 24, 2012, 05:06:36 PM
I would rather see a poll on:

Are we going to get a McDonald's AA in the next 5 years? If so, how many?

And

Are we going to get a top 10-20 Center in the next 5 years?

There is a link at the top right.  It says "Post a New Poll".  Click on it an wholla. 

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on March 24, 2012, 06:55:52 PM
What about Jake "Jimmer" Thomas?

Yeah this guy completely forgot about him he will be such a zone buster

I said no but hope yes.

I look at who makes it year in and year out and rarely is it a school like Marquette. 

Reasons we could

Buzz stays the next five years
Big East conference doesn't suffer any more hits to the conference.  The league will be softer in coming years, but that could allow us to get a 1 or 2 seed because of fewer opportunities of losing

Reasons we won't.

Basketball only schools haven't been there much in the last 10 years.  Five of the last 40 Final Four participants have been basketball only schools.  12.5% of the spots went to bball only schools.
Will Buzz be here another 5 years? 
Will the Big East continue to crumble as a conference leading to trouble gathering recruits
Luck and competition.  It is hard to get to a Final Four.  Very hard.  The bluebloods have a tough enough time getting there and for MU to get there is even tougher.

What does being a basketball only school have anything to do it it?  They were only 12.5% of the teams, but they all came out of the BE!  No of the others matter.  Their are only a handful of basketball only schools that have a realistic shot and they do very well.

If you insist that conference realignment matters, I assume you also think that Texas, Oklahoma and Okla State are screwed because the Big 12 is in the same position.

These are bogus reasons.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on March 24, 2012, 08:50:09 PM
What does being a basketball only school have anything to do it it?  They were only 12.5% of the teams, but they all came out of the BE!  No of the others matter.  Their are only a handful of basketball only schools that have a realistic shot and they do very well.

If you insist that conference realignment matters, I assume you also think that Texas, Oklahoma and Okla State are screwed because the Big 12 is in the same position.

These are bogus reasons.

Butler is a basketball only school (yes, they have football but not scholarship football)
VCU is a basketball only school
George Mason is a basketball only school
Georgetown is a basketball school (yes, they have football but not scholarship football)


So no, they didn't all come from the Big East.  Only Marquette (CUSA at the time) and Villanova did (Villanova has football, barely).

The Big 12 is not the in the same position.  They are infinitely more stable that the Big East and about to sign a $2 BILLION deal with ESPN.  $2 BILLION.

The reason it matters is that powerful DI programs with football and basketball are getting to the Final Four more than basketball only schools.  The statistics are the statistics.  No one will disagree that Duke has football, but they are practically a basketball only school.  Most of the Final Four teams of the last decade.  Major programs, huge budgets, large alumni, usually large state schools.  Exceptions exist and always will, but the odds are harder for a MU then they are other schools.  What MU has going for it is a huge budget for hoops, a great history and a committed administration.

I believe that we can dance.

High expectations are good. But let's not lose perspective: We must see the forest in spite of the trees.