I'm thankful we have Henry Sugar as our stats guy and not this Florida goof.
http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas/showthread.php?t=226548 (http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas/showthread.php?t=226548)
QuoteThis is one of my favorite little calculations that I have done in the past. It does not come up as much in the NCAA tourney because it is rare to have so many common opponents. But UF and Marquette have both played Norfolk State [Marquette twice], LSU, Vandy [UF twice], Cuse, Rutgers, Mississippi and JU. Here are the results of those match ups and the difference in how the two teams did:
Opponent UF Marquette Diff Diff2
---NSU---- 34 ---- 31 ------ 3 -- 0
---NSU---- 34 ---- 2 ----- 32 17.5
---LSU---- 12 --- -8 ----- 20 20
--Vandy--- 8 -- -17 ----- 25 - 0
--Vandy-- -10 -- -17 ----- 7 16
--Cuse---- -4 --- -7 ------ 3 -- 3
-Rutgers--- -2 -- 17 ---- -19 -19
--Miss------- 4 -- 30 ---- -26 -26
---JU------- 45 -- 32 ----- 13 13
--sum---------------------- 58 27.5
average--------------------6.4 3.9
So UF and Marquette have had these common opponents. Under the UF column is the UF scoring margin in the UF game against the common opponent. Under the Marquette column is the Marquette scoring margin in the Marquette game against the common opponent. The column Diff is the UF margin minus the Marquette margin using the NSU and Vandy scores twice. The column Diff2 is the UF margin minus the Marquette margin averaging the NSU and Vandy games that Marquette and UF respectively played twice. [Notice the zero in the column for the first NSU and Vandy rows.] Any negative number in the Diff or Diff2 columns means Marquette beat that common opponent by more or lost to them by less than UF. Sum is the total number of points UF's margin was greater than Marquette's margin. [Again if negative Marquette's margin would have been greater.] Average is the sum difference divided by the number of game, ie 9 for the Diff column and 7 for the Diff2 column.
Notice on average UF's margin against these common opponents was larger. Notice that UF margin was greater against every common opponent except Rutgers and Misssissippi. Of course all that matters is what happens Thursday, but I found this exercise interesting particularly given some of the criticism of UF. Finally, please let me know if anyone sees an error in any of this, I did it fairly quickly in a speadsheet.
Need to factor in home and away
92% of things can be proven by numbers; 2 things that can't:
- This guys analysis
- my math
Sorta cooks the numbers when they're counting UF's 34 point Norfolk State win twice and MU's 17 point Vandy loss twice, I'd think. That's a nice little 51-point swing.
To quote Mr. Bodine
naught plus naught equals naught
You people simply will not face the fact that we are doomed by all relevant measures. There's really no point in playing the game.
It's kind of funny that its so important to these Florida fans to try and prove who will win before the game starts. They are obviously far more concerned about this game than they are willing to admit.
Yes, definitely thank God for HS.
(http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/190/651/tumblr_lpyw2pNhaZ1r0w4bgo1_500.jpg?1319478951)
Clearly this is a code for when the world is going to end. Now if I could stop wincing, I'll start working on when that's going to be.
THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
(And thank you to all our resident numerologists that put together objective analyses)
What you get when you combine bourbon, Lyryrd Skynrd and bball analysis:
Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette > Wisconsin > Vanderbilt > Marquette < Florida. Florida wins!
Sugar Rocks...stats are fun, but, as Boomer says, "That's Why They Play The Game..."
Was traveling all day.
I'm flattered by this, but am only one contributing member of a vibrant stats community, including Bama, Dr Blackheart, and numerous others.
Quote from: TallTitan34 on March 20, 2012, 07:44:04 PM
I'm thankful we have Henry Sugar as our stats guy and not this Florida goof.
http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas/showthread.php?t=226548 (http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas/showthread.php?t=226548)
Sounds like this guy is more accurate than the Florida goof:
(http://i948.photobucket.com/albums/ad330/tvgeekarmy/barney.jpg)