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Picks Marquette to win
Marquette-Florida Analysis and Prediction
Second place teams from the Big East and SEC will face off on Thursday in Phoenix when Marquette and Florida meet with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. The Golden Eagles used an impressive late run to oust Murray State, with both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom scoring 17 points to pace the team. On Sunday, Florida jumped all over Norfolk State early and never looked back in a 34-point win. Five Gators scored in double figures, led by Kenny Boynton with 20 points, eight rebounds, and four assists.
For Florida, the clear strength is its offense, which ranks third in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Gators shoot over 44 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and they make over 38 percent from deep. They also shoot it well inside the arc and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the country. Because they shoot so many threes, their free throw rate is relatively low, so don't expect many trips to the stripe.
Marquette's defense is tough though, ranking in the Top 20 in adjusted efficiency. With the exception of a poor defensive rebounding percentage, the Golden Eagles have solid numbers in the other three factors on defense. They rank in the Top 65 against both two-and three-pointers, both of which will be key against the Gators. They also force turnovers at a high rate and don't put their opponents on the line very often.
Offensive rebounding bears watching though, as the Golden Eagles rank outside of the Top 300 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Gators aren't elite in that regard, but guys like Patric Young and Casey Prather boast high offensive rebounding percentages and could give Marquette trouble on the glass.
When Marquette has the ball, they would seem to have an advantage, as the Golden Eagles rank in the Top 30 in offensive efficiency while the Gators are outside of the Top 80 on defense. Interestingly enough though, the teams' strengths match up relatively well. Marquette boasts a 41.3 free throw rate, which is just inside the Top 50, but the Gators rank just inside the Top 50 in limiting their opponents' trips to the stripe. Something has to give there, as the ultra-aggressive Golden Eagles love to force the action.
The two teams are relatively even on the glass, and I wouldn't expect many turnovers based on their respective rankings in that category. That leaves shooting, where Marquette makes 50.5 percent of their twos, while the Gators rank outside of the Top 125 in two-point defense. And even though Marquette doesn't shoot it all that well from deep (33.9 percent), Florida has struggled to defend the perimeter as well. The Golden Eagles take a relatively low percentage of their shots from long range though, as they would much rather attack the basket, which has in turn led to their aforementioned free throw rate.
In terms of individual matchups, I will be intrigued to see how things line up in the backcourt. Florida has a number of talented guards, led by Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton, and freshman Bradley Beal, but Marquette has strong backcourt play as well with Johnson-Odom, point guard Junior Cadougan, and freshman Todd Mayo, who has played well of late.
For me, the difference will be the play of Crowder and DJO for Marquette. Those two will be the toughest two players on the court, and I think the cumulative effect of the Golden Eagles' aggressiveness will take its toll on Florida.
Predicted Winner: Marquette