S-Curve: March 11 Update
Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)
Body of work. That's what was stressed by Jeff Hathaway, chair of the NCAA Selection Committee, yesterday. This is an interesting bracket. The top eight spots are really set in stone, with the only question being who gets the last 1-seed. I currently have Missouri there, but could see it going to Kansas or the Big 10 Champ as well. My guess is that the committee sticks with Missouri and just ignores the result of the Big 10 title game. They've done it before. Marquette is still on the 3-line and looks safe. Only Florida State is in position to jump up there, and with Michigan still as a buffer between MU and the 4-line, they should stick. Again, it seems that more often than not, the Sunday games don't really make much difference, so I think FSU stays as a 4 and UNC stays as a 1 regardless of the result of that game.
The biggest game today is without a doubt St. Bonaventure/Xavier. All of the other teams playing today are safely in and likely have their seeds set. However, the Bonnies are definitely on the outside looking in. If they win, they will steal a bid. Which brings us back to body of work. Looking at the cut-line, there are a number of teams that are hovering there. A case could be made that the last few spots could go to NC State, Miami, Drexel, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marshall, or Washington. Of the at-large teams, I would give a 99% confidence rating to teams 1-28, which includes everyone through Connecticut. The next three teams, Colorado State, West Virginia, and Texas, I would place at around 80%. But past that, it's almost impossible to say. Virginia, NC State, and Miami all have similar resumes. The conundrum is that Virginia arguably has a better resume than NC State, who has a better resume than Miami, who has a better resume than Virginia. At the moment, I put all three in simply because I couldn't separate them. I included both Big East bubble teams, and at the last moment added Marshall. The Herd's pair of top-20 wins over Southern Miss in the past week, four overall top-50 wins, and bad losses that really aren't that bad got them in the field over BYU and Mississippi State. But that could change with a gust of wind.
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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/03/s-curve-march-11-update.html
I see Palm agreed with you in having Lville and Marquette both as No, 3 seeds.
Selfishly I love in nashville vs. davidson and st.mary's/southern miss. I believe those games are all winnable, with the only negative being potentially paying two southern schools in a southern venue.
Great stuff, and thanks for the heads up on Marshall. Wow, completely missed them even being in the picture. I know you have them as just possibly sneaking in as the last team, but I had not even been watching them and had missed those wins.
The have no NBA-level players, but looking at Value Add they have a big man in 6-8 Dennis Tinnon, who is a top 200 player, and two good ball handlers in my top 500 players in senior point guard Damier Pitts and 6-4 Shaquille Johnson. They have moved from 89th to 69th in Pomeroy down the stretch, so not a great team, but a hot team with senior point guard play - not a terrible combo.
The one I'd be curious about is Miami over Brigham Young. I had assumed BYU was easily in and when Durand Scott, Miami's best player, was suspended I assumed that was the final nail in the coffin for them. However, I guess Scott was just a one game. Any other thoughts on those two?
I'll try repasting my table below of all your seeds plus the other teams still possibly in the mix.
Team (SH=short-handed) Conf Season Talent top 3 Exp. Guards Hot or Inj Total Off Reb
9 Alabama (SH) SEC 15 5 4 2 26 33.6
Arizona P12 12 5 6 5 28 31.2
3 Baylor B12 17 9 8 3 37 37.3
13 Belmont ASun 16 4 10 8 38 34.5
Brigham Young WCC 12 3 5 2 22 30.5
10 California P12 16 8 5 4 33 32.2
6 Cincinnati BE 15 5 7 10 37 36.1
12 Colorado P12 9 5 9 5 28 29.6
11 Colorado St. MWC 10 4 6 8 28 29.1
10 Connecticut BE 14 10 2 6 32 37.5
7 Creighton MVC 14 6 10 3 33 31.6
14 Davidson SC 11 4 6 5 26 35
Dayton A10 12 6 7 7 32 36.2
16 Detroit Horz 6 6 5 9 26 35.1
Drexel CAA 13 4 5 6 28 33.8
2 Duke ACC 17 10 4 7 38 35
6 Florida (SH) SEC 16 10 8 2 36 34.6
4 Florida St. ACC 15 9 10 7 41 36
4 Georgetown BE 17 9 8 7 41 35.5
8 Gonzaga WCC 15 7 5 4 31 34.2
9 Harvard Ivy 13 4 10 3 30 31
4 Indiana (SH) B10 18 8 10 4 40 35.3
Iona MAAC 12 6 8 6 32 32.6
8 Iowa St. (SH) B12 15 6 6 6 33 32.3
2 Kansas B12 19 11 10 5 45 34.4
8 Kansas St. B12 16 5 4 5 30 40.6
1 Kentucky SEC 20 15 1 8 44 38.2
16 Lamar Slnd 7 4 9 5 25 37.5
15 Lehigh Pat 9 4 6 6 25 31.2
12 Long Beach St. BW 14 5 9 5 33 33.2
15 Long Island NEC 3 5 7 5 20 34.8
Louisiana St. (SH) SEC 8 4 6 2 20 34.4
3 Louisville BE 15 7 7 8 37 36.3
15 Loyola MD MAAC 5 4 3 5 17 38.8
3 Marquette BE 16 8 7 7 38 34.6
13 Marshall CUSA 10 3 7 8 28 32.1
5 Memphis (SH) CUSA 17 8 4 6 35 30.6
13 Miami FL ACC 14 6 7 9 36 32.3
3 Michigan B10 16 7 6 10 39 27.9
2 Michigan St. B10 19 10 9 6 44 37.7
Mississippi SEC 9 3 3 8 23 36.6
Mississippi St. SEC 9 11 9 2 31 32.5
16 Mississippi Valley St. SWAC 1 1 9 4 15 33.3
1 Missouri B12 18 8 6 4 36 31
14 Montana BSky 9 4 7 7 27 28.1
5 Murray St. OVC 13 6 7 5 31 34.9
15 NC Asheville BSth 5 4 10 7 26 32.8
Nevada WAC 8 5 4 5 22 35
7 Nevada Las Vegas MWC 15 8 10 2 35 33.5
6 New Mexico MWC 17 6 5 9 37 34.5
13 New Mexico St. WAC 11 4 8 8 31 40.4
16 Norfolk St. MEAC 2 3 7 3 15 32.7
1 North Carolina (SH) ACC 19 15 5 7 46 40.8
13 North Carolina St. ACC 13 9 8 8 38 36.6
Northwestern (SH) B10 12 8 4 3 27 25.8
5 Notre Dame BE 14 6 4 10 34 29.9
14 Ohio MAC 10 4 6 7 27 35
2 Ohio St. B10 19 10 2 5 36 35.7
Oregon P12 11 4 6 9 30 33.2
9 Purdue B10 16 9 9 7 41 31.9
Saint Joseph's A10 11 8 3 6 28 30.6
7 San Diego St. MWC 12 4 4 5 25 31
13 Seton Hall BE 13 5 6 4 28 32.6
14 South Dakota St. Sum 12 1 7 5 25 30.6
12 South Florida (SH) BE 11 3 4 8 26 34.1
10 Southern Mississippi CUSA 11 3 5 4 23 35.9
10 St. Louis A10 17 5 7 7 36 32
6 St. Mary's (SH) WCC 13 5 6 1 25 36
1 Syracuse BE 18 13 7 5 43 36.1
7 Temple A10 14 5 9 8 36 31.4
Tennessee (SH) SEC 12 3 4 9 28 33.3
11 Texas B12 15 8 4 5 32 37.9
5 Vanderbilt SEC 16 12 9 7 44 32.9
16 Vermont AE 5 3 4 7 19 34.6
11 Virginia (SH) ACC 16 5 7 2 30 28.1
12 Virginia Commonwealth CAA 13 6 4 6 29 33.9
Washington P12 11 11 4 7 33 38.3
11 West Virginia (SH) BE 13 6 3 2 24 40.6
16 Western Kentucky SB 3 1 7 7 18 33.4
8 Wichita St. MVC 18 5 10 7 40 33.4
4 Wisconsin B10 18 7 7 5 37 30.4
9 Xavier A10 12 5 9 4 30 32.3
Really, it came down to substance. BYU's entire resume is their win over Gonzaga, which is offset a bit by also losing twice to the Zags. Miami's win over FSU, combined with their win over Duke, is simply more compelling. And in a year where so many teams with mediocre resumes are vying for the last few spots, it's important to note that not only does Miami only have one bad loss, but it's a loss to RPI-105 Maryland. BYU has 2 losses worse than that one. Basically, Miami gets the "bad, but not that bad" category of loss.
The other reason I put Miami in was because of Virginia and NC State. It was really hard to separate the ACC teams, so I figured it was easier to put them all in. And looking at the competition for that last spot, with some of the bad losses teams like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Washington, Iona, and Drexel have, it made the Hurricanes even more compelling. That said, if they were left out, I wouldn't be shocked or upset. I see it as being 14 teams for the last 6 spots, and just about any combination of those teams wouldn't really bug me much.
Lunardi has an updated S curve up today. It's on insider though. Anyone have access to post?
Quote from: GO_MU02 on March 11, 2012, 01:07:26 PM
Lunardi has an updated S curve up today. It's on insider though. Anyone have access to post?
He has Marquette 10th.
I would be SHOCKED if Miss. State missed the tourney.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 11, 2012, 03:05:29 PMI would be SHOCKED if Miss. State missed the tourney.
RPI is down to 74, the lowest at-large ever was 75. They have 2 top-50 wins, but 4 sub-100 losses. They've lost 6/8 and their body of work simply doesn't quite match up to a Marshall, Miami, or USF. USF especially when you factor in injuries. That said, if they were in, I'd understand, simply because teams are so hard to separate right now.
I really see 14 teams for 6 spots. Pretty much throw the names in a hat and pull 6 out and you could probably make an honest case for those being the right picks.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 11, 2012, 03:42:02 PM
RPI is down to 74, the lowest at-large ever was 75. They have 2 top-50 wins, but 4 sub-100 losses. They've lost 6/8 and their body of work simply doesn't quite match up to a Marshall, Miami, or USF. USF especially when you factor in injuries. That said, if they were in, I'd understand, simply because teams are so hard to separate right now.
I really see 14 teams for 6 spots. Pretty much throw the names in a hat and pull 6 out and you could probably make an honest case for those being the right picks.
I do not follow Mississipi State, but I thought they recently suspended a player that Buzz tried to recruit. I think that would be held against them also.