I love this Marquette team, but it sure makes me nervous. I never know which MU team will show up.
It is the quintessential team of extremes: When it plays well, it plays very well. When it is bad, it can be very bad.
MU has suffered two terrible losses in its last three games, which is truly discouraging. Then again, those losses were separated by a terrific win against Georgetown.
No one can predict with even a hint of confidence how well Marquette will do in the NCAA tournament.
Does your trusty "Marquette sucks on national television" theorem work here?
Quote from: MU Avenue on March 10, 2012, 02:37:17 PM
No one can predict with even a hint of confidence how well Marquette will do in the NCAA tournament.
I think you answered your own question.
Quote from: Jamailman on March 10, 2012, 02:56:03 PM
Does your trusty "Marquette sucks on national television" theorem work here?
I have never said or written that "Marquette sucks on national television." I have said and written that Marquette too often plays badly and loses by wide margins on national TV.
Does anyone disagree?
I find this discouraging. That's all. Discouraging.
Why does my making this point bother you so much?
Quote from: MU Avenue on March 10, 2012, 02:37:17 PM
No one can predict with even a hint of confidence how well Marquette will do in the NCAA tournament.
So quit worrying about it. If they play really great, they win, so why worry? If they repeat what they did against Louisville, they lose and the season is over, so why worry?
History has shown that this year's Marquette team:
1. Has the ability and potential to play with any team in the land.
-- and --
2. Has the potential to fall behind by 20 points or more within a game's first 10 minutes, be down by a dozen points or more at halftime and have to scratch and claw its way back in the second half.
Like many Marquette teams of the past, this team's Achilles' heels are inconsistency and unpredictability. MU pays often, too, for being so slow out of the gate.
The only score that matters ultimately, of course, is the final score. But too many of Marquette's final scores this season, including in two of its last three games, provide cause for concern.
Marquette did not let recent games with Cincinnati and Louisville slip away at the end. MU was beaten handily. One and done in the Big East tournament. Next stop: the NCAA tournament.
Like many others, I hope Marquette soars in the NCAA tournament. Such would make the nation and world better places.
But anyone who pays attention to collegiate basketball cannot have great confidence -- emphasis on "great" -- that MU is going to get past the tournament's opening round.
Quote from: MU Avenue on March 11, 2012, 08:35:39 AM
But anyone who pays attention to collegiate basketball cannot have great confidence -- emphasis on "great" -- that MU is going to get past the tournament's opening round.
Prior to knowing whom the specific opponent is of course, I can, and I do. MU's last couple losses came against the two teams who played in the Big East Final, and whom many now seem to think will end up seeded as high, or higher than MU (I don't happen to share that sentiment). I choose not to overreact to the last couple losses, and MU's opening round game is likely to come against a 14 seed, and for those reasons, I have great confidence that they will get past the tournament's opening round.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on March 11, 2012, 08:46:58 AM
Prior to knowing whom the specific opponent is of course, I can, and I do. MU's last couple losses came against the two teams who played in the Big East Final, and whom many now seem to think will end up seeded as high, or higher than MU (I don't happen to share that sentiment). I choose not to overreact to the last couple losses, and MU's opening round game is likely to come against a 14 seed, and for those reasons, I have great confidence that they will get past the tournament's opening round.
We all hope Marquette wins, of course, NavinRJohnson.
But I would not be so dismissive of or confident about beating a team that is seeded 14th. Or one that is seeded 13th. Or 12th. ...
Marquette has a long, long, long history of playing to the level of its opponent. You really think that MU will mop the floor with a team because that opponent is the 14th seed? Or the 13th? Or the 12th. ...?
Should that happen, I will be pleasantly, pleasantly, pleasantly surprised.
Quote from: MU Avenue on March 11, 2012, 09:06:31 AM
Marquette has a long, long, long history of playing to the level of its opponent. You really think that MU will mop the floor with a team because that opponent is the 14th seed
I don't see the part where I said they would mop the floor with anyone. You make it sound like playing down to a 14 seed ( more accurately the 14 seed playing up) in the NCAA tournament is unique to Marquette. It happens consistently, but the better team also usually wins. Teams are seeded where they are seeded for a reason. Of course there are no guarantees, but I am greatly confident they will survive the opening round.
Which Junior Cadougan will show up is the question. The Bad Junior or the Terrible Junior?
With the exception of LSU (RPI 80) .. our losses are to very highly rated teams .. 30 (Vandy) ,13, 1, 39 (Notre Dame), 40 (Cincy), 17.
Vandy .. no explanation there, we got surprised and beat at home. Both ND and Cincy were beat-downs on the road. The asterisks to ND and Cincy .. ND was a week after Gardner went down .. Cincy loss was to a charged up senior-night team. -- Not to diminish their wins (our losses) .. just to say there were some extra circumstances to us getting beat.
The theme here is : This season, MU can (will) beat any team above ~30. Teams under 30, we're about 50/50. And that 50/50 compares favorably to a lot of the top 10 teams. Besides freaks like Syracuse and Kentucky .. the top teams have 5-8 losses, kinda like MU, mostly to teams < 30.
With that in mind .. our chances of winning game 1 should be very high. The 2nd opponent will be (if playing a 6) somewhere between 20-40 (if an 11) between 30-60. Without seeing the opponent .. I'd give it an optimistic 60/40 on making it to the S16. 40% is still a huge number.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on March 11, 2012, 09:18:02 AM
I don't see the part where I said they would mop the floor with anyone. You make it sound like playing down to a 14 seed ( more accurately the 14 seed playing up) in the NCAA tournament is unique to Marquette. It happens consistently, but the better team also usually wins. Teams are seeded where they are seeded for a reason. Of course there are no guarantees, but I am greatly confident they will survive the opening round.
I think you have misunderstood my point about Marquette's long history of "playing to the level of its opponent."
You are correct: Teams that are seeded higher in the NCAA tournament play teams that are seeded lower. Yes, "it happens consistently."
My point is that in most games, MU tends to play at about the same level as it opponents. If it plays a powerhouse, Marquette can rise to the occasion and be a powerhouse, too. If it plays a lesser team, MU tends to stay at that level and play weaker teams evenly.
I was not suggesting that it is "unique" for a higher-seeded team to play a lower-seeded team in the NCAA tournament.
Did you go to Marquette?
Quote from: MU Avenue on March 11, 2012, 09:32:05 AM
My point is that in most games, MU tends to play at about the same level as it opponents. If it plays a powerhouse, Marquette can rise to the occasion and be a powerhouse, too. If it plays a lesser team, MU tends to stay at that level and play weaker teams evenly.
Wow, how wrong can you be? In most games? Seiously?
Why was MU's average margin of victory in November over 28 points?
How'd hey go into Madison and beat UW?
How'd they beat St. John's, USF, Rutgers, UC by 20?
Why did they win @UConn and DePaul by 15?
Please show me where they tend to play at the level of their opponent "in most games" as you so inaccurately describe it, where they
tend to stay at that level and play weaker teams evenly.
Does it happen on occasion? Yes, just as it does to every other team in the country. To suggest it is some sort of trend or pattern for Marquette simply ignores the facts.
The better question might be, which opponents team is going to show up. Louisville without Kuric or a Louisville team playing at the top of their game. A Cincy team that turns the ball over or a Cincy team that is playing like 5 bulldogs. In both cases we won the first meeting and looked bad in the second. To me it was the other team playing much better than it was MU playing much worse.