MUScoop

NCAA

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

The following is a very rough scale of the potential for NCAA runs by teams that could still make the tournament.  The scales are explained below the table, but basically a 34 or higher would be teams likely to win a game (technically 2nd round after Dayton), 38 or higher would be Sweet 16 teams, and 42 or higher would be Elite 8 teams.

Part of this is based on each team's top 3 players, which you can find for each player by clicking here (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/03/2121-most-valuable-college-basketball.html), but this is NOT a precise measurement like VALUE ADD, just a rough feel of how tough an opponent might be.

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SeedPot NCAA teamConfSeasonTalent top 3Exp. GuardsHot or InjTotal[/tr]

14	Akron	MAC	10	6	5	4	25
9	Alabama	SEC	15	5	4	3	27
18	Arizona	P12	12	5	6	5	28
19	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0	0	0	6	6
3	Baylor	B12	17	9	8	3	37
14	Belmont	ASun	16	4	10	8	38
19	Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1	1	0	6	8
12	Brigham Young	WCC	12	3	5	2	22
19	Buffalo	MAC	7	3	6	2	18
19	Cal Poly	BW	3	3	9	2	17
10	California	P12	16	8	5	4	33
19	Central Florida	CUSA	9	4	9	7	29
8	Cincinnati	BE	15	5	7	10	37
19	Colorado	P12	9	5	9	5	28
11	Colorado St.	MWC	10	4	6	8	28
9	Connecticut	BE	14	10	2	6	32
6	Creighton	MVC	14	6	10	3	33
14	Davidson	SC	11	4	6	5	26
17	Dayton	A10	12	6	7	7	32
15	Detroit	Horz	6	6	5	9	26
12	Drexel	CAA	13	4	5	6	28
2	Duke	ACC	17	10	4	7	38
5	Florida	SEC	16	10	8	3	37
19	Florida A&M	MEAC	0	1	0	5	6
4	Florida St.	ACC	15	9	10	7	41
3	Georgetown	BE	17	9	8	7	41
19	Georgia	SEC	7	6	10	8	31
7	Gonzaga	WCC	15	7	5	4	31
11	Harvard	Ivy	13	4	10	3	30
19	Hawaii	WAC	2	1	6	3	12
4	Indiana	B10	18	8	10	6	42
17	Iona	MAAC	12	6	8	6	32
8	Iowa St.	B12	15	6	6	7	34
1	Kansas	B12	19	11	10	5	45
8	Kansas St.	B12	16	5	4	5	30
19	Kent St.	MAC	5	3	10	4	22
1	Kentucky	SEC	20	15	1	8	44
19	La Salle	A10	12	5	6	4	27
16	Lamar	Slnd	7	4	9	5	25
15	Lehigh	Pat	9	4	6	6	25
11	Long Beach St.	BW	14	5	9	5	33
15	Long Island	NEC	3	5	7	5	20
18	Louisiana St.	SEC	8	4	6	3	21
19	Louisiana Tech	WAC	3	2	4	8	17
5	Louisville	BE	15	7	7	8	37
15	Loyola MD	MAAC	5	4	3	5	17
3	Marquette	BE	16	8	7	7	38
19	Marshall	CUSA	10	3	9	5	27
19	Maryland	ACC	5	6	5	7	23
19	Massachusetts	A10	8	4	4	5	21
19	McNeese St.	Slnd	2	2	6	7	17
8	Memphis	CUSA	17	8	4	9	38
17	Miami FL	ACC	14	6	7	9	36
3	Michigan	B10	16	7	6	10	39
2	Michigan St.	B10	19	10	9	6	44
17	Mississippi	SEC	9	3	3	8	23
13	Mississippi St.	SEC	9	11	9	2	31
16	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1	1	9	4	15
2	Missouri	B12	18	8	6	4	36
14	Montana	BSky	9	4	7	7	27
6	Murray St.	OVC	13	6	7	5	31
16	NC Asheville	BSth	5	4	10	7	26
13	Nevada	WAC	8	5	4	5	22
5	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	15	8	10	2	35
7	New Mexico	MWC	17	6	5	9	37
19	New Mexico St.	WAC	11	4	8	8	31
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC	2	3	7	3	15
1	North Carolina	ACC	19	15	5	8	47
17	North Carolina St.	ACC	13	9	8	8	38
17	Northwestern	B10	12	8	4	5	29
6	Notre Dame	BE	14	6	4	10	34
19	Ohio	MAC	10	4	6	7	27
2	Ohio St.	B10	19	10	2	5	36
18	Oregon	P12	11	4	6	9	30
19	Oregon St.	P12	9	5	4	3	21
19	Portland St.	BSky	3	3	9	6	21
9	Purdue	B10	16	9	9	7	41
18	Saint Joseph's	A10	11	8	3	6	28
7	San Diego St.	MWC	12	4	4	5	25
13	Seton Hall	BE	13	5	6	4	28
13	South Dakota St.	Sum	12	1	7	5	25
12	South Florida	BE	11	3	4	10	28
10	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	11	3	5	4	23
19	St. Bonaventure	A10	12	5	4	9	30
10	St. Louis	A10	17	5	7	7	36
7	St. Mary's	WCC	13	5	6	2	26
16	Stony Brook	AE	4	3	7	5	19
1	Syracuse	BE	18	13	7	5	43
5	Temple	A10	14	5	9	8	36
17	Tennessee	SEC	12	3	4	10	29
13	Texas	B12	15	8	4	5	32
19	Texas Southern	SWAC	1	2	6	5	14
19	UC Irvine	BW	1	1	1	4	7
19	UC Santa Barbara	BW	8	5	7	7	27
6	Vanderbilt	SEC	16	12	9	7	44
19	Vermont	AE	5	3	4	7	19
9	Virginia	ACC	16	5	7	3	31
11	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	13	6	4	6	29
19	Virginia Tech	ACC	9	5	7	2	23
12	Washington	P12	11	11	4	7	33
10	West Virginia	BE	13	6	3	2	24
16	Western Kentucky	SB	3	1	7	7	18
4	Wichita St.	MVC	18	5	10	7	40
4	Wisconsin	B10	18	7	7	5	37
12	Xavier	A10	12	5	9	4	30

The columns represent:

Seed â€" likely seed, with 17-19 meaning probably not in the tournament, but could still be picked or are alive in conference tournament.

Season (20 scale) = how well they have played for the whole season, with a .975 or better in Pomeroy = a “20,” and on down to 0.

Talent (15 scale) = It usually takes at least 3 stars to make a deep run, so this is an average of each team’s top 3 players.  A 12 = a likely 1st rounder, 10 = a likely 2nd rounder, 8 = a likely 2013 NBA pick, and other players get their Value Add.    Kentucky and UNC get a 15 since they have more than three 1st rounders and several other NBA players, and Syracuse gets a 13 for having more than three.

Experienced Guards (10 scale) = a starting point guard is a 6 for being a senior, 4 for being a junior and 2 for a sophomore, while the shooting guard adds 3, 2, 1 and a third senior ball handler can get a team a total of 10.

Hot (10 scale) = A team can be as high as a red hot 10 if their Pomeroy rating has been shooting up for the last 10 or 12 games or an ice cold 0 if they have been plummeting for that long.  Record is just part of being hot or cold, as a team can be 5-5 and hot if they have been battling top 50 teams on the road, or cold if they are 8-2 in close games against non-top 200 teams.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/03/ncaa.html

So this formula was built by Big Ten and ACC grads?

LOL - unfortunately Big Ten really does look like the strongest this year.

On the ACC, UNC is actually the only "Elite 8" team, but having NC State and Miami (before they lost their best player and probably won't make the tournament) join Florida State and Duke as potential Sweet 16 teams seems a little strong.

But actually assuming Miami doesn't make the NCAA, the Big East has more potential Sweet 16 teams (at least within a point of 38) in Lville, Marquette, Cincy, Georgetown and Syracuse.

As I said in the intro piece, a "rough" guide on four things that seem to be important for runs, but not at all a precise science so hopefully the BEAST mops up.