Concerned about losing the three seed, which is big difference to the four seed. I think we should be fans in the teams below...
Iowa over Michigan State
Kansas over Baylor
Texas over Mizzou
Minnestota over Michigan
Indiana vs. Wisconsin (this is a tough one)
Any more?
Florida and Florida St. losing would be nice.
I think Wisconsin. I think they would need to do more than just beat Indiana to pass us. Indiana has some big wins that might do it for them. I don't think Mizzou matters much to us anymore, they are ahead of us even with a loss in my opinion. Same with Michigan State, but that could prevent the winner of UW/IU getting a big quality win to pass us.
Any team other than Notre Dame.
Michigan State over Iowa, because we aren't passing MSU so let them stay at 2
Kansas over Baylor
Texas over Mizzou
Minnesota over Michigan
Wisconsin over Indiana (IU is closer to us on the S-Curve, and we beat UW H2H)
Miami over FSU
Alabama over Florida
Notre Dame over Louisville
UMass over Temple
New Mexico over UNLV
Don't think any others really matter...some of those ones don't, but if all those happen, lock in the #3 seed no matter what.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 09, 2012, 11:43:17 AM
Michigan State over Iowa, because we aren't passing MSU so let them stay at 2
Kansas over Baylor
Texas over Mizzou
Minnesota over Michigan
Wisconsin over Indiana (IU is closer to us on the S-Curve, and we beat UW H2H)
Miami over FSU
Alabama over Florida
Notre Dame over Louisville
UMass over Temple
New Mexico over UNLV
UPDATE: Off to a good start... MSU and UMass are winners.
Yup. Basically we want an OSU/MSU Big Ten Final and a KU/MU Big Twelve Final. If those happen, I feel really good about being a 3 seed. UNC/Duke ACC would seal it I think.
Count Wisconsin over Indiana as well.
So far so good.
The more I look at bracket projections, the more I find it difficult for us to fall off that 3 line. Regular season 2nd place finisher in the Big East is mighty impressive.
Seeing IU and G'town lose their first conf games bodes well. We shall see how today shakes out.
Did I ever tell you that I'm a HUGE Gopher fan (sarcasm off)?
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm)
Temple also lost, though they were unlikely to climb 2 seed lines. Florida is also getting a game from Alabama. Roll Tide!
If Minnesota, Miami, and Kansas all win today, we're golden.
Wisconsin better not jump us. We have a better rpi strength of schedule and we won on their court.
Lunardi still has us at a #3.....BUT playing Belmont (picked as a Giant Killer) in Louisville
Thanks Joe! That's some funny ish.......
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/giant_killers/id/7648654/ncaa-tournament-giant-killers-most-likely-teams-pull-upsets
All of his predictions have MU against Murray State in second round. That would be awesome. But Belmont would be a delicate situation.
Quote from: Sir Lawrence on March 09, 2012, 11:16:24 AM
Any team other than Notre Dame.
1 Kabillion.
Denvermu, care to weigh in?
UPDATE 2: Florida wins unfortunately (need them to lose to Kentucky tomorrow)
Crap Michigan wins.
Baylor is making me nervous though, leading Kansas. If Baylor wins we might have to kiss that 3 seed goodbye.
Not Notre Dame or Loserville
Did anyone see the replay of the shot Michigan took in the last 25 seconds in the game against Minnesota? From my angle on the replays, the ball never hit the rim, and Michigan should have had about 1.5 seconds to get a shot off. Instead, they claimed it hit the rim even thought the Michigan guy caught it underneath the basket. I had biased Michigan grads in front of me at the bar swearing the ball hit the rim, but nobody could say when tot hit the rim. Without that call, Minnesota probably wins in regulation. Just sucks if MU's seed is lost due to a blown call in the Michigan-Minnesota game.
Quote from: Norm on March 09, 2012, 09:29:10 PM
Did anyone see the replay of the shot Michigan took in the last 25 seconds in the game against Minnesota? From my angle on the replays, the ball never hit the rim, and Michigan should have had about 1.5 seconds to get a shot off. Instead, they claimed it hit the rim even thought the Michigan guy caught it underneath the basket. I had biased Michigan grads in front of me at the bar swearing the ball hit the rim, but nobody could say when tot hit the rim. Without that call, Minnesota probably wins in regulation. Just sucks if MU's seed is lost due to a blown call in the Michigan-Minnesota game.
It clearly hit the rim, both on the shot and when Michigan's center went up to grab the rebound. I can't believe Minnesota choked that away...
Quote from: Norm on March 09, 2012, 09:29:10 PM
Did anyone see the replay of the shot Michigan took in the last 25 seconds in the game against Minnesota? From my angle on the replays, the ball never hit the rim, and Michigan should have had about 1.5 seconds to get a shot off. Instead, they claimed it hit the rim even thought the Michigan guy caught it underneath the basket. I had biased Michigan grads in front of me at the bar swearing the ball hit the rim, but nobody could say when tot hit the rim. Without that call, Minnesota probably wins in regulation. Just sucks if MU's seed is lost due to a blown call in the Michigan-Minnesota game.
Hopefully Michigan loses tomorrow. If so, it's probably a moot point; they will have 9 losses to our 7, and as has been mentioned, they have had worse losses overall. To me, we are a tad better than them. Baylor, on the other hand, is better than us if I'm being honest, and would probably beat us head to head 6 or 7 times out of 10.
Quote from: Norm on March 09, 2012, 09:29:10 PM
Did anyone see the replay of the shot Michigan took in the last 25 seconds in the game against Minnesota? From my angle on the replays, the ball never hit the rim, and Michigan should have had about 1.5 seconds to get a shot off. Instead, they claimed it hit the rim even thought the Michigan guy caught it underneath the basket. I had biased Michigan grads in front of me at the bar swearing the ball hit the rim, but nobody could say when tot hit the rim. Without that call, Minnesota probably wins in regulation. Just sucks if MU's seed is lost due to a blown call in the Michigan-Minnesota game.
I thought the difference in the shot clock was 1.5, not that there should have been 1.5 left on the shot clock?
Quote from: JWags85 on March 09, 2012, 09:32:10 PM
It clearly hit the rim, both on the shot and when Michigan's center went up to grab the rebound. I can't believe Minnesota choked that away...
Did the announcers say it hit the rim? I only ask because I never saw the ball change direction on the way down. Maybe I'm blind, but I never saw the bill hit the rim.
Quote from: Norm on March 09, 2012, 09:39:38 PM
Did the announcers say it hit the rim? I only ask because I never saw the ball change direction on the way down. Maybe I'm blind, but I never saw the bill hit the rim.
Yes it did and yes they did. You could see it change direction.
That was a heck of an inbounds play for Michigan, though.
I agree with JWags, what a choke job by Minnesota. Can't believe they lost that.
Quote from: MUMac on March 09, 2012, 09:39:13 PM
I thought the difference in the shot clock was 1.5, not that there should have been 1.5 left on the shot clock?
There was a little over 2 seconds left in the shot clock when the Michigan player shot the ball. If it is ruled that the shot didn't sit the rim there would only have been a little over a second for Michigan to get the shot off after inbounding the ball. Instead, because they ruled the ball hit the rim, the shot clock was off and they took about 4 seconds to hit the 3 that tied the game with about 17 seconds left.
Quote from: MUMac on March 09, 2012, 09:42:28 PM
Yes it did and yes they did. You could see it change direction.
That was a heck of an inbounds play for Michigan, though.
I agree with JWags, what a choke job by Minnesota. Can't believe they lost that.
Then it must have barely nicked the rim. But I'll take your word for it.
Quote from: Norm on March 09, 2012, 09:43:36 PM
There was a little over 2 seconds left in the shot clock when the Michigan player shot the ball. If it is ruled that the shot didn't sit the rim there would only have been a little over a second for Michigan to get the shot off after inbounding the ball. Instead, because they ruled the ball hit the rim, the shot clock was off and they took about 4 seconds to hit the 3 that tied the game with about 17 seconds left.
Are you sure? When I was watching the replay with both the shot clock and game clock, there was about a 1.5 second difference. Novak shot that early in the shot clock. They did not run it down.
Quote from: Wade for President on March 09, 2012, 03:54:17 PM
Seeing IU and G'town lose their first conf games bodes well. We shall see how today shakes out.
IU won their first conf tournament game yesterday. They lost the second one today.
Quote from: Hoopaloop on March 09, 2012, 10:05:13 PM
IU won their first conf tournament game yesterday. They lost the second one today.
Beat Penn State - carries about the same weight as if we had played and beaten DePaul in round 1.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on March 10, 2012, 12:39:59 AM
Beat Penn State - carries about the same weight as if we had played and beaten DePaul in round 1.
More like Providence or St. John's. PSU 155 RPI. DePaul 199. SJU and Providence are 156 and 158.
Not sure why you even brought it up as I was merely pointing out that IU didn't lose their first game as the poster had stated. They went 1-1 in the B1G tournament.
Cheering update for March 10:
- Ohio State over Michigan
- Cincinnati over Louisville
- Michigan State over Wisconsin
- Duke over Florida State
- Mississippi over Vanderbilt
.
If three of those teams win, there should be no way we drop to a 4-seed.
Andy Glockner has us on the 3 line with Baylor, Michigan and Indiana. He has Florida State as a 6 (which seems low to me). As fours, he has Wisconsin (Go Sparty), Louisville (Go Bearcats), Wichita State (done), and Georgetown (done). It's just one man's opinion, but it makes me feel a little more comfortable.
Quote from: cheebs09 on March 10, 2012, 08:54:44 AM
Andy Glockner has us on the 3 line with Baylor, Michigan and Indiana. He has Florida State as a 6 (which seems low to me). As fours, he has Wisconsin (Go Sparty), Louisville (Go Bearcats), Wichita State (done), and Georgetown (done). It's just one man's opinion, but it makes me feel a little more comfortable.
Indiana likely drops before MU. Some bad losses to Iowa will hurt them some. What will likely move them down, though, is losing Jones to injury. MU's RPI is still 9. Awfully strong RPI. All the others you mention are below. Louisville 18, UW 20 and Wichita St. 12. Michigan is just behind MU and could go above with a win today.
Kerr palm has us as a 3 seed in Nashville. He also has wisconsin as a 3 seed in Columbus which means there ahead of us. Complete BS if you ask me.
Quote from: GoMarquette32 on March 10, 2012, 09:16:38 AMKerr palm has us as a 3 seed in Nashville. He also has wisconsin as a 3 seed in Columbus which means there ahead of us. Complete BS if you ask me.
No, what's complete BS is that he has us playing
BELMONT in Nashville. Uhh...Jerry, you do realize that Belmont is
IN Nashville, right? Talk about a royal screwjob for the higher seed...
...suffice to say, there is no way in hell the Selection Committee will do that.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2012, 08:05:25 AM
Cheering update for March 10:
- Ohio State over Michigan
- Cincinnati over Louisville
- Michigan State over Wisconsin
- Duke over Florida State
- Mississippi over Vanderbilt
.
If three of those teams win, there should be no way we drop to a 4-seed.
Shouldn't we add Kentucky over Florida? Florida leading in first half is making me nervous.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on March 10, 2012, 12:23:32 PMShouldn't we add Kentucky over Florida? Florida leading in first half is making me nervous.
It wouldn't hurt, but personally, I can't see Florida overtaking us. They have 2 sub-100 losses, have lost 5 of their past 10 (and that's if they win today), and their RPI is only 28. I currently have them as a 6-seed, I think that's just too far, even if they take home the SEC title.
So far so good today. UK beats Florida, MSU seems to be having no difficulty with the Badgers. And we add two more wins versus teams in the tournament field as the Norfolk State Spartans top Bethune-Cookman to win the MEAC.
So far, so good...
- Kentucky beats Florida, ending any UF rising up talk
- Norfolk State earns a bid, giving MU two NCAA-berth wins
- Michigan State throttling Wisconsin
.
Still need two more of the earlier list to guarantee a 3-seed. Right now, pulling for Duke and Mississippi as they get under way shortly.
Just a shout out to Norfolk State. A worthy opponent, who just got their first ever NCAA bid. Good for them.
Still early, but Ohio State is crushing Michigan 16-3. That's the good...the bad is that Ole Miss trails Vandy at the half and FSU is ahead of Duke, also at the half. Both are 2-point games, so definitely not decided.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2012, 03:26:59 PM
Still early, but Ohio State is crushing Michigan 16-3. That's the good...the bad is that Ole Miss trails Vandy at the half and FSU is ahead of Duke, also at the half. Both are 2-point games, so definitely not decided.
It's possible, but I think with 10 losses (including a rather mediocre 10-6 conference record), Vandy will not pass us. FSU, on the other hand, is a bigger concern.
Quote from: statnik on March 10, 2012, 03:51:09 PM
It's possible, but I think with 10 losses (including a rather mediocre 10-6 conference record), Vandy will not pass us. FSU, on the other hand, is a bigger concern.
It depends on how they sort teams...if it's overall resume, I like us over Vandy, but if it's just us v Vandy, their H2H could loom large.
Definitely need Duke to win, though...Duke and tOSU would let me rest very easily.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2012, 03:57:49 PM
It depends on how they sort teams...if it's overall resume, I like us over Vandy, but if it's just us v Vandy, their H2H could loom large.
Definitely need Duke to win, though...Duke and tOSU would let me rest very easily.
I agree. If FSU wins this one, they pass MU. One point game with seven to go........
I think if OSU continues to romp Michigan, we are ahead of them (at least logic should dictate that). If that's the case, I think only Baylor has officially passed us (although FSU might if they hold on).
FSU wins it. Duke shoots 5 for 20 from three, with Seth Curry thinking he is Ray Allen in last two minutes. But, he is not. Missed three in a row.
That one might hurt MU, we'll see.
Quote from: nyg on March 10, 2012, 04:40:26 PM
FSU wins it. Duke shoots 5 for 20 from three, with Seth Curry thinking he is Ray Allen in last two minutes. But, he is not. Missed three in a row.
That one might hurt MU, we'll see.
Yeah, definitely hurt. Figure Baylor and FSU are ahead of us. So are both G'Town & Michigan (assuming OSU wins) ahead of us? If so, no #3 seed for us. It's that simple right?
Will be a close call with FSU, a coin flip really. Our RPI will remain higher - they were 22 going into today. They have a couple of bad losses to Clemson and BC. But three really strong wins (Duke x2 and UNC). If they beat UNC tomorrow there's no doubt they should be ahead of us. Really love Leonard Hamilton as a coach.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on March 10, 2012, 04:42:40 PM
Yeah, definitely hurt. Figure Baylor and FSU are ahead of us. So are both G'Town & Michigan (assuming OSU wins) ahead of us? If so, no #3 seed for us. It's that simple right?
GTown and Michigan remain behind us in my opinion. That was a quality win by FSU. Tomorrow is important for them.
Who do we feel is for sure ahead of us? Baylor I would give the nod to. A lot depends on how much they weight bad losses. If that's a big part, then I think we are ahead of FSU and Michigan. If not, then I think it's a coin flip. Either way, I see us at worst as the last 3 seed. Maybe a Louisville win tonight makes it pretty interesting.
Quote from: jsglow on March 10, 2012, 04:46:24 PM
GTown and Michigan remain behind us in my opinion. That was a quality win by FSU. Tomorrow is important for them.
Exactly. Michigan getting blown out today was key. Even if Baylor and FSU end up passing us, we're still probably 11th on the S Curve, which means two more teams would have to pass us based on what the consensus seems to be. That doesn't mean the NCAAs s curve isn't different than what bracketologists like Joe Lunardi have.
Michigan is getting hammered. So I simply can't see them as a #3. Plus one more thought. With MSU and tOSU on lines #1/#2 I can't see the committee handing Mich. or Bucky or Crean's bunch a #3. They all feel like #4s or #5s to me.
And in any event, doesn't this beat the heck out of sitting at Seton Hall or USF right now?
Quote from: nyg on March 10, 2012, 04:13:54 PM
I agree. If FSU wins this one, they pass MU. One point game with seven to go........
FSU's not ahead of us yet. Their 3 best wins are great (Duke x 2, UNC) but those are the ONLY top-50 wins they have. They also have 2 bad losses, one of which is abysmally bad (Boston College). They probably moved up to the 4-line today, but no way are they ahead of us yet. They need to beat UNC tomorrow to move ahead of us.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 10, 2012, 06:21:54 PM
FSU's not ahead of us yet. Their 3 best wins are great (Duke x 2, UNC) but those are the ONLY top-50 wins they have. They also have 2 bad losses, one of which is abysmally bad (Boston College). They probably moved up to the 4-line today, but no way are they ahead of us yet. They need to beat UNC tomorrow to move ahead of us.
Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have. I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow. If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on March 10, 2012, 07:36:26 PM
Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have. I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow. If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat.
That's what could potentially hurt us the most. If the committee follows the ESPN/Jay Bilas mindset of it all being about who you've beaten then FSU, Baylor, Michigan, and even Indiana have top heavy wins that are better than ours. If they care about not having bad losses then FSU, UM, and IU should fall behind us. Comparing resumes, I think Baylor looks better than us and should be ahead. I didn't mention UW, because frankly our resume is as good and slightly better for good wins, we don't have the bad losses, and we won there so unless you're a moron like Jerry Palm they are without a doubt behind us. Also have to watch for Louisville when looking at their resume and the reward they might get for winning tonight- a Cincy win would be nice.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on March 10, 2012, 07:36:26 PM
Those three wins are ALL better than ANY win we have. I would not be at all surprised if they move past us even if they get the crap kicked out of them tomorrow. If they win tomorrow they are past us in a heartbeat.
They may, but I side with Brew. 2 bad losses, and one of those a really really bad loss (240 RPI @ BC). Their RPI is around 20, worse than MU's. MU has one more quality win (top 100) and one more top 50 win.
Plus, the ACC is not thought of as being a strong conference. 3 from the ACC ahead of the BE's #2? I am guessing not.
Here's the other thing to consider...the Selection Committee is notoriously lazy when it comes to seeding Sunday games. My guess is that right now, the field is pretty much set. In fact, I think the only game that will change anything today is St. Bonaventure/Xavier. Most years, it seems like what happens in these late games doesn't really have any impact on seeding. UNC is probably locked in at a 1 (guessing Midwest). FSU is probably locked in at a 3-4. And despite everyone saying MSU/tOSU is for a 1-seed, I don't buy it. Will the committee really want to make two completely different brackets based on the outcome of a game that won't be done until 5 pm Eastern? Contrary to popular belief, it really isn't as simple as just putting one of them at a 1 and the other at a 2. It'd be far easier to just keep both of them at 2-seeds and give the last 1-seed to either Kansas or Mizzou, both of whom have at least as good a case as either of the B1G schools.
Only one game really matters today, and that's St. Bonaventure/Xavier, because if the Bonnies win, they knock someone off the bubble. I have no idea who. My last bracket has Marshall as the last team in, but I could easily make a case that they're more deserving than South Florida, who I have in ahead of the Play-In games. The consensus seems to be that there are 14-15 teams vying for the last 6-7 spots, and I don't think many people will really have issue with which of those teams get in.
Here's who I would guess is on the bubble right now: Virginia, Miami, NC State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marshall, BYU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Washington, Iona, Drexel, Oral Roberts, Northwestern.
I believe that 6 of those 14 teams will get in. I don't know which. The only ones I'd really take issue with getting in would probably be Washington and Northwestern...but who knows? No regular season Power-6 champ has ever missed the field, and as far as Northwestern...well, maybe I'd have issue with them getting in ;D. Regardless, here's the list for today's games:
- North Carolina over FSU; don't think it matters, but it's not impossible that FSU could bump someone off the 3-line.
- Kentucky over Vandy; Highly doubt Vandy reaches the 3-line, but there's no way they do with a loss. And if Kentucky wins, history says they'll lose in the NCAA tournament.
- Xavier over St. Bonaventure; depends on what you want, but X winning could save a bid for the Big East, which could give MU another win over a team that makes the field. Or root for chaos...this doesn't matter much to us.
- Michigan State over Ohio State; they may not be the Badgers, but better dead than Red, and tOSU wears red.