Cincy loss has me concerned we could drop to a four seed. Are we in trouble or am I just being overly nervous?
If we lose both to G'Town and our first BET game one would think we would drop to a four seed? That would mean playing a one seed, close to their home, in the Sweet Sixteen.
If we win versus G'Town on Saturday are we a lock for a three? What if we lose to G'Town and win the first BET game and lose the second?
We're definitely in trouble of dropping to a four seed. The first thing we need to do is win on Saturday. Then everything will have to be reassesed again.
If we beat Georgetown, we have to be a lock for a #3 seed. There's quite a jump in resumes from 3seeds to 4seeds.
yeah, i think beating g-town would lock us into a three.
Especially when you consider that every Division I team but 30 loses a game in their conference tournaments.
exactly. wisconsin, michigan and indiana are all behind us right now, but only one can win the big 10 tourney. Same goes for louisville, g-town and notre dame. Only way I could see us dropping is if Baylor, Florida St, Florida and one from each of the above groups won their respective tourneys. But I think we're a pretty safe three seed just by beating G-town.
Beat GT and we're back to being the top 3-seed. Win one Big East tourney game and we are pretty much locked into a 3. Win the Big East tourney, we'll be a 2. Lose our next two (GT and BET opener) and we're a borderline 3/4 depending on what else happens. No way we are lower than a 4, and barring Armageddon, no way we're higher than a 2.
My head explodes every time I even think of this stuff. That's lots of brain particles scattered about, not to mention the time it takes to glue it all back together every time.
Let's just beat Georgetown and go from there.
I don't see how 1 loss drops us from an "almost" 2 to a borderline 3. People need to get their heads on straight...it was 1 loss, away. Now i agree losing to Gtown could create some issues, but lets not all follow the other idiots that jumped off the ledge last night.
Quote from: robmufan on March 01, 2012, 03:20:17 PMI don't see how 1 loss drops us from an "almost" 2 to a borderline 3. People need to get their heads on straight...it was 1 loss, away. Now i agree losing to Gtown could create some issues, but lets not all follow the other idiots that jumped off the ledge last night.
It didn't, but on Scoop, any loss means the sky is falling. We're still a solid 3.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 01, 2012, 03:39:33 PM
It didn't, but on Scoop, any loss means the sky is falling. We're still a solid 3.
Well aware, it will never change!
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 01, 2012, 03:39:33 PM
It didn't, but on Scoop, any loss means the sky is falling. We're still a solid 3.
I dont' think we're solid for a 3 until we beat Georgetown. A home loss has a larger RPI impact, and may even drop us out of the top 12.
And a loss to GU, followed by a loss in our first BET game may very well drop us to a 4.
A win over GU, followed by a loss in our first BET game probably leaves us a 3, but would also leave us open to being leapfrogged by a B12, B10 or SEC dark horse. Unexpected teams that win their conference tournament seem to be rewareded by the committee--UConn was rewarded with a 3 seed last year after finishing .500/9th place.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2012, 04:17:56 PM
I dont' think we're solid for a 3 until we beat Georgetown. A home loss has a larger RPI impact, and may even drop us out of the top 12.
And a loss to GU, followed by a loss in our first BET game may very well drop us to a 4.
A win over GU, followed by a loss in our first BET game probably leaves us a 3, but would also leave us open to being leapfrogged by a B12, B10 or SEC dark horse. Unexpected teams that win their conference tournament seem to be rewareded by the committee--UConn was rewarded with a 3 seed last year after finishing .500/9th place.
Exactly. If we lose to GU, and ND beats Providence, then according to the standings we're the 4th best team in the BEast. So how will we get a 3 seed?
We have to take care of business on Saturday, plain and simple.
Quote from: murespect on March 01, 2012, 04:31:01 PM
Exactly. If we lose to GU, and ND beats Providence, then according to the standings we're the 4th best team in the BEast. So how will we get a 3 seed?
We have to take care of business on Saturday, plain and simple.
The committee has said numerous times that your rank in conference does not play a factor. They look at overall schedule wins and losses. For example, ND's abysmal non-conference record means it would be unlikely they leapfrog us in the NCAA seeing without winning the BET. Remember, ND just lost on the road as well... to St Johns.
I swear this board is brutal this time of year. I believe we have an inferiority complex that every other team is better than us... and as soon as we lose one, it comes out and validates this complex.
Quote from: wardle2wade on March 01, 2012, 04:37:09 PM
The committee has said numerous times that your rank in conference does not play a factor. They look at overall schedule wins and losses. For example, ND's abysmal non-conference record means it would be unlikely they leapfrog us in the NCAA seeing without winning the BET. Remember, ND just lost on the road as well... to St Johns.
I swear this board is brutal this time of year. I believe we have an inferiority complex that every other team is better than us... and as soon as we lose one, it comes out and validates this complex.
I think you confuse realism with "inferiority complex." People are talking as if we are no worse than a 3 seed no matter what happens. I just don't think we're there yet.
Its not "inferiority" to look at the situation and decide that we need to beat Georgetown at a minimum to solidify our seed. If we lose to Georgetown, it won't be Notre Dame that necessarily leapfrogs us, but it might be Baylor, Michgan, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, etc. depending on who wins the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 tournaments.
And as you point out, if ND wins the BET, they will leapfrog us as well.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2012, 05:05:15 PM
And as you point out, if ND wins the BET, they will leapfrog us as well.
Hope I don't eat my words, but unless the BET is moved to the Joyce, there is no chance ND wins the BET.
Quote from: murespect on March 01, 2012, 04:31:01 PM
Exactly. If we lose to GU, and ND beats Providence, then according to the standings we're the 4th best team in the BEast. So how will we get a 3 seed?
We have to take care of business on Saturday, plain and simple.
The worst we can finish in the regular season standings is a tie for second. Big East does not do regular season tiebreakers. Besides, as has already been stated conference record has no bearing on seeding. UConn finished 9th last year but got a three seed in the dance over several other Big East teams. There are numerous other examples.
Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2012, 04:17:56 PMI dont' think we're solid for a 3 until we beat Georgetown. A home loss has a larger RPI impact, and may even drop us out of the top 12.
And a loss to GU, followed by a loss in our first BET game may very well drop us to a 4.
Right now we're a solid 3, if the tourney started today. That's all I meant. We could drop, but no lower than a 4.
Also time to start being fans of teams who are playing potential 4/5 seeds so they don't move up. Definitely an Illinois fan tonight to be Michigan. Florida State vs. Viriginia... tougher call (I guess the Cavaliers?).
Quote from: robmufan on March 01, 2012, 03:20:17 PM
I don't see how 1 loss drops us from an "almost" 2 to a borderline 3. People need to get their heads on straight...it was 1 loss, away. Now i agree losing to Gtown could create some issues, but lets not all follow the other idiots that jumped off the ledge last night.
Same as the comments every other year when each win in the BET will mean moving up a seed.
Even after our loss at Cinci and Michigan's win at Illinois last night, consensus of bracketologists still has us as the top-ranked 3 seed. Closer to a 2 than a 4, in fact.
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
Of course, if we lose to Georgetown -- which we won't, but if we do, but we won't, but just in case -- we likely would drop to a 4 and would have to earn the 3 back in the BET.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 01, 2012, 06:22:57 PM
Right now we're a solid 3, if the tourney started today. That's all I meant. We could drop, but no lower than a 4.
Sorry--thought you were suggesting that we were a solid 3 regardless of what happens in our next 2 games.
I still think we are a borderline #2 and with a win tomorrow and a win in the BET we are a solid #2
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on March 01, 2012, 02:17:55 PM
exactly. wisconsin, michigan and indiana are all behind us right now, but only one can win the big 10 tourney. Same goes for louisville, g-town and notre dame. Only way I could see us dropping is if Baylor, Florida St, Florida and one from each of the above groups won their respective tourneys. But I think we're a pretty safe three seed just by beating G-town.
I think Georgetown will be seeded better than Marquette
Marquette : RPI 7 SOS: 20 Kenpom: 18 Sagarin: 14 Record: 24-6 1-3 against the top 25 6-4 against the top 50 4-2 against 50-100, 14-0 against 100+
Georgetown: RPI 10 SOS: 15 Kenpom: 11 Sagarin: 13 Record: 21-6 3-2 against the top 25 8-3 against the top 50 0-3 against 50-100, 13-0 against 100+
It's obviously close and debatable, but I think out Resume is slightly better. Marquette only has 1 quality OOC win @ Wisconsin while we have 3 in Alabama and 2 wins over memphis say what you will about your personal opinion of those teams they're both in the top 28 of the RPI.
I think we're both 3 seeds either way, but I'd put us just ahead of you.
Quote from: hoyasincebirth on March 02, 2012, 01:04:39 PM
I think Georgetown will be seeded better than Marquette
Marquette : RPI 7 SOS: 20 Kenpom: 18 Sagarin: 14 Record: 24-6 1-3 against the top 25 6-4 against the top 50 4-2 against 50-100, 14-0 against 100+
Georgetown: RPI 10 SOS: 15 Kenpom: 11 Sagarin: 13 Record: 21-6 3-2 against the top 25 8-3 against the top 50 0-3 against 50-100, 13-0 against 100+
It's obviously close and debatable, but I think out Resume is slightly better. Marquette only has 1 quality OOC win @ Wisconsin while we have 3 in Alabama and 2 wins over memphis say what you will about your personal opinion of those teams they're both in the top 28 of the RPI.
I think we're both 3 seeds either way, but I'd put us just ahead of you.
Well, when we beat you at the BC ...
We'll be 2-3 against top 25 and you'll be 3-3. We'll be 7-4 against top 50 and you'll be 8-4. You'll still be 0-3 vs 50-100 (vs. our 4-2). We'll probably pass you on Sagarin and our Kenpom will get closer.
And our single-digit RPI will put us ahead of you in the committee's eyes.
So there.
WIN! DUH!
Quote from: MU82 on March 02, 2012, 01:19:27 PM
Well, when we beat you at the BC ...
We'll be 2-3 against top 25 and you'll be 3-3. We'll be 7-4 against top 50 and you'll be 8-4. You'll still be 0-3 vs 50-100 (vs. our 4-2). We'll probably pass you on Sagarin and our Kenpom will get closer.
And our single-digit RPI will put us ahead of you in the committee's eyes.
So there.
Not necessearily. GU may get one more shot at us.
If we beat GU, we're the 2nd seed BET, and GU is 12-6. Then, if Villanova beats Cincy, GU will be the #3 seed regardless of whether or not USF and ND win. Assuming we both win our first games in the BET, we've got a rematch.
However, if Cincy beats Villanova, they'll improve to 12-6 (tied with GU) and earn the #3 seed in the BET and Georgetown will be #4 on the basis of UC's win on January 9th.
I don't think there is a way that either Notre Dame or USF can get to the #3 in the BET.
If we beat georgetown and notre dame wins, ND is the three. Right? Also, if USF wins they would be the 4. If cincy wins,they would be the 5. Georgetown would drop all the way to the 6th seed.