MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: dw3dw3dw3 on February 27, 2012, 09:06:14 PM
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Hypothetically if MU was to win out (29-5)...and Cuse loses to ville in their regular season finale and to MU in the BEast finals (30-3), we could take their spot as the #1 Big East team. I think our neutral ct win would trump their home ct win vs us. In that scenario, 1 seeds will go to Kentucky, acc winner (Duke/NC), b12 winner (KU/Mizzou) and either the b10 winner or BEast winner (MU). B10 is such a crapshoot any of those teams could knock of MSU early and derail their shot at a #1.
Probably the same chances that Llyod had with Ms. Swanson, but fun to think about this late in the year.
1. Kentucky (28-1) : vs. UGA (3/1), @ #13. FLA (3/4)
2. Syracuse (29-1) : vs. #18 U of L (3/3)
3. Duke (25-4) : @ WF (2/28), vs. #6 UNC (3/3)
4. Kansas (24-5) : @ OK St (2/27), vs. Tex (3/3)
5. Michigan State (24-5) : @ #20 IU (2/28), vs. #11 OSU (3/4)
6. North Carolina (25-4) : vs. MD (2/29), @ #3 Duke (3/3)
7. Marquette (24-5) : @ Cincy (2/29), vs. #12 GTown (3/3)
8. Missouri (25-4) : vs. ISU (2/29), @ TT (3/3)
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If 3 out of the 4 ahead of us lose early in the tournament, I don't know how you can leave us out of the top 4 if we also win out. Winning 18 out of 19 and the BE tournament is top 4 material.
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The only way we get a 1 seed is by winning out.
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UK and Cuse could lose out and still be #1s. Beyond that it would take a lot...KU losing early in the B12 tournament, Mizzou not winning the B12 tournament either, MSU losing to OSU and also not winning the B1G tournament, UNC beating Duke in Cameron and then not winning the ACC tournament. That's 5 teams that are ahead of us or have in-roads to get ahead of us, all competing for 2 spots as it is. If we would win out we'd likely be the first or second #2 though.
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Andy Glockner has us as the last two seed in front of Mizzou right now. He said their weak non-conference schedule is hurting them.
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If Marquette wins out, they will be a one seed. Absolutely.
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I agree.
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Not going to happen......BE isn't getting 2 1 seeds.
Last 2 1 seeds will come from MSU, NC/Duke, and Kansas.
Cuse and Kentucky are already locks
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Hopefully we get the chance to find out.
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If MU gets a 1-seed, we're going to get shipped to Phoenix. I'd much rather be a 3-seed in St. Looey.
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I want to be the one seed at about 11pm on April 2nd.
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Not going to happen......BE isn't getting 2 1 seeds.
Last 2 1 seeds will come from MSU, NC/Duke, and Kansas.
Cuse and Kentucky are already locks
A 29-5 team that has won 17 of 18 and would have an RPI of probably 2-4 is a 1 seed.
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A 29-5 team that has won 17 of 18 and would have an RPI of probably 2-4 is a 1 seed.
Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?
Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team. In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.
That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that. And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.
In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed. Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.
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Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?
Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team. In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.
That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that. And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.
In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed. Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.
Wins over Cincinnati (77), Georgetown (12), Louisville (20), maybe Georgetown again (12) and maybe Syracuse (1) would push their RPI toward the top, yes. They are ranked 7th in RPI right now.
The eye test, hype and Marquette rolling through the Big East Tournament would push them to a No. 1 seed, in my opinion.
And of course a lot of chips would need to fall into place for this to happen. That's the whole point of the thread. It's all speculative and probably won't happen.
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hvae to agree 5-0 gets us a 1
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Unfortunately, I believe that there is a NCAA rule that requires that to get a number one seed, a team has to have a McDonald's All-American on its roster.
All kidding aside, it seems quite possible to me that its never happened.
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If MU gets a 1-seed, we're going to get shipped to Phoenix. I'd much rather be a 3-seed in St. Looey.
Yeah, being a #1 seed would be really cool, but I'd rather be a notch or two lower and have a better draw (and maybe a chip on our shouler).
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Do you honestly think we could end the season with an RPI of 2? or 3?
Plus, a 5-loss Marquette team would probably get seeded below a 5-loss Duke team, a 6-loss MSU team, a 6 loss Kansas team or a 5-loss UNC team. In other words, even if those teams lose another game AND we win out, we wouldn't be a one seed.
That's not to mention the fact that Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual #1 seed locks, and that Mizzou also currently has less losses than that. And oh yeah, most brackets still have OSU in front of us right now.
In other words, we aren't going to be a #1 seed. Love your MU pride and hometown love, but its a whole lot of chips need to fall into place for us to be a 1.
I don't think Mizzou can get a 1 over us if we both win out. Their SOS is in the 100's, they have a worse RPI than MU, they have the same number of top 100 wins as MU. Don't see it...
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I would much rather be a high 2 or 3 seed and get decent matchups and a spot in Columbus for the first two rounds and then St. Louis in the regional. If we get a 1 seed, we will be the last one and get a crappy location. Seeding does not matter one bit. Its much more about location and match ups. That's why Lunardi won't pick a final four without seeing a bracket.
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I'd agree that Kentucky/Syracuse are automatic locks for a #1 seed. Even if Syracuse loses to Louisville, and we beat them in the BE final. They'll be a 3 loss team at best from the Big East. Kentucky, well, do I really have to explain? The only way we have a shot at a #1 seed is...
- Kansas or Missouri does not win the B12 tournament. Team like Baylor does; Kansas does not even make the final
- Michigan State or Ohio State does not win the B10 tournament. Wisconsin does (giving us a road win over the B10 champion as yucky as it sounds that Wisco wins the B10); Michigan State does not even make the final. Remember Ohio State is still in front of us on the S-curve
- We obviously win the Big East tournament and win these last two games
- Duke or UNC does not win the ACC tournament. Team like Florida State/Virginia does. Problem is even if Duke/UNC make the final they will probably get a #1 seed
This just needs to happen for us to entertain the possibility of being a #1 seed. We probably need a team or two of these to lose in the regular season still. Overall, I'd rather be a #2/#3 seed in the Midwest or East than a #1 out west.
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Why people would want to be a 3 seed over a 1 seed, anywhere, is beyond me. If we got a 1 seed, they would not put us in a bracket where the 2, 3, and 4 seeds would have home games against us. It would be a truly neutral site. A 3 seed opens with a 14 seed. 14 seeds this year will probably be some mid-major who has decent talent. A 16 seed is not going to beat a 1 seed, while I would not be surprised at all if a 14 beats a 3 this year. Then the 2nd round you would rather play a 6 seed than an 8? Again, they aren't going to give a 6 seed a virtual home game. And being in Columbus is NOT going to give Marquette a home-court advantage, I can guarantee you of that. Last year Marquette was in Cleveland and it was literally 90% Ohio State fans. Neither Marquette nor Syracuse was well represented, and neither set of fans had any play in the outcome of that game. Now the game is in Columbus, and while Ohio State won't be there, I can guarantee you that Ohio State fans who won't have any rooting interest in the games will make up at least 75% of the crowd. 2nd round you either get a team that underachieved (or was in a stacked Conference - Big East) and got seeded 11th (Marquette last year, Washington when they beat Marquette) or a tough 6 seed. Last year 2 3 seeds lost in the 2nd round (both to 11 seeds). 1 1 seed was knocked off in the 2nd round, but that was to Butler and Brad Stevens does magic. Butler will not be an 8 seed this year, so there is no need to worry about him (although they could be a 14...). Then in the 3rd round you play a 2 seed and being an underdog vs. playing a 4 seed and being fairly heavily favored still. The 4 seeds this year will not be all that scary, while 2 seeds probably will (Missouri or Kansas, Ohio State and maybe Michigan State, Duke or North Carolina, and maybe Baylor. I would much rather play a UNLV, Wichita State, Indiana, Florida, or Wisconsin type team than a 2 seed type team, regardless of where the game is. And then if we were a 3 seed in St. Louis and were able to make it to the Elite Eight, we would be playing Kansas in St. Louis. No thanks. I'll take my chances against a 2 seed on a neutral court.
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Warriors10 nailed it. It isn't impossible to get a 1, but the path is so difficult and requires so much help that is not worth talking about. Finish strong, get a 2-3, take your chances.
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Kentucky and Syracuse are locks for 1-seeds. Duke, Kansas, and Michigan St. would all basically have to lose 3 straight for MU to even be in the discussion for a #1.
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Warriors10 nailed it. It isn't impossible to get a 1, but the path is so difficult and requires so much help that is not worth talking about. Finish strong, get a 2-3, take your chances.
If we win out we will be a one seed. The difficult party about it is the winning out.
Duke/UNC play each other once in the regular season and then have the ACC Tournament. At least one will be knocked below us, could be both if the winner of the regular season game doesn't win the ACC Tournament. Michigan State plays at Indiana and vs. Ohio State and then has the Big 10 Tournament. Chances are good that they will lose at least one in there and we jump them. Kansas has the Big 12 Tournament where they will probably have to play Iowa State in the semifinals (lost to them once this year) and Missouri in the finals (lost to them once this year). If they lose one of those we jump them.
Winning out would leave us at 29-5, 2nd in the Big East, and Big East Tournament Champions, with wins over Georgetown (probably twice) and (probably) Syracuse, to go along with road wins over probably NCAA Tournament teams Cinci, UConn, and maybe even West Virginia over the last couple weeks of the season. We would have won 18 out of 19 games and would be the hottest team going into the NCAA Tournament. All of the teams above would have very similar records to us.
If many of the teams above us didn't play each other multiple times before the end of the season, then it would be pretty hard to see happening. But just by them playing each other it's not like we need to pray for huge upsets. If we win out, we get the 1 seed. That is the hard part about it.
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I don't think it will happen, but I'd much rather have a 1 seed over a 2 or 3.
A 1 seed gets to play the 4 or worse in the Sweet Sixteen.
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Any 1, 2 or 3 seed is fine and should give us a good shot (maybe even very good, depending upon matchups) at the Elite Eight. Then it comes down to getting a great individual performance or two (see Wade, D., 2003) and some luck.
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I don't think it will happen, but I'd much rather have a 1 seed over a 2 or 3.
A 1 seed gets to play the 4 or worse in the Sweet Sixteen.
Another advantage of the one seed when you look at the percentages.... they have the highest chance of not playing the expected seeds in the round of 16. Think how times a 12 or 13 has made it to the Sweet Sixteen. When you are a 2/3, at best you can normally hope for a 6/7/10/11 in the Sweet Sixteen, and the 10/11 is less often than the 12/13.
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The more I thought about this, I wouldn't mind being a 1-seed in Phoenix because:
1) The reason Titan mentioned above.
2) There are no "elite" teams on the West Coast this year... that means the best of the 2's, 3's and 4's will get geographical preference and be placed in Boston, Atlanta, or St. Louis. The "leftovers" will go to Phoenix. In theory, the Phoenix regional would have the highest 2, the weakest 3, and the highest 4... in reality, if the committee tries to keep teams close to home, your 2-4 seeds in Phoenix could end up being Baylor, Wichita State, and UNLV, respectively. I would take that regional any day.
(The Atlanta region is virtually guaranteed to be the toughest with Kentucky and one of either NC or Duke already being a virtual lock for that region with Georgetown and OSU or MSU also in the mix).
3) I'm committed to tickets in St. Louis. I'm also committed to tickets in New Orleans. That's a lot of traveling for consecutive weekends, and I'd much rather spend my money on the Bayou.
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If we win out it will not be beating gtown twice. Beating them on Sunday would give ND the 3 seed to our two seed. So the only way we could be gtown again, is by not beating Cuse.
Unless you assume ND loses at home to providence.
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Averaging the rankings in both polls and RPI as of today (2/28), the potential S-Curve (and region based on geographic preference) would be as follows:
1-seeds
KY - Atlanta
Cuse - Boston
Duke - St. Louis
KU - Phoenix
2-seeds
MSU - St. Louis
UNC - Atlanta
MU - Phoenix (can't be seeded in East with Cuse)
Baylor - Boston
3-seeds
OSU - Atlanta
Mizzou - St. Louis
Georgetown - bumped to 4-seed in Atlanta because can't go to Boston or Phoenix (MU and Cuse) and other two regionals taken
Wichita St - Phoenix
4-seeds
Mich - escalated to 3-seed in Boston as result of Georgetown drop
UNLV - Phoenix
Fla - St. Louis
Wisc - Boston (can be placed in Boston because they are 4th team from conference)
Boston - Syracuse, Baylor, Michigan, Wisconsin
Atlanta - Kentucky, UNC, Ohio St, Georgetown
St. Louis - Duke, Mich St, Mizzou, Florida
Phoenix - Kansas, Marquette, Wichita St, UNLV
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rpiforecast gives Marquette a 7.19% chance of going 29-5 with an expected rpi of 3.7 if that happens. Obviously, they don't know which opponents we would be playing but that gives you an idea of where we would be at.
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3) I'm committed to tickets in St. Louis. I'm also committed to tickets in New Orleans. That's a lot of traveling for consecutive weekends, and I'd much rather spend my money on the Bayou.
I'm in the same boat.
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I want to be the one seed at about 11pm on April 2nd.
+1
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Were a team with 0 top 20 wins guys....come one time for a reality check. A much as I would love a 1 seed we just do not have the signature wins like the teams ahead of us.
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If Marquette wins out, we'd pick up two top 20 wins. In addition, most of the RPI estimations I have seen current through last night have Louisville and Wisconsin both hovering around the 20 spot (some have one or both as top 20). We could have 4 top 20 wins in a week and a half if we win out.
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I'm in the same boat.
I did Indy & Minny in 2003 and was all set to drive down to Nola (if not for a a last-minute business trip that weekend). I also made the drive to Winston-Salem in '07. That was all pre-wife & toddling kids, however. Now it's planes, babysitters, bathroom breaks, decent hotels (wife ain't staying at the Days Inn or Econolodge), Blue & Gold donations, etc. I think I spent a grand total of less than $400 in each of those years... if MU goes to Nola via StL, I'll be lucky to get out spending less than $4,000.
The things I do for the people and things I love... oh well. I guess I'd rather have the memories than be a DePaul fan with a couple thousand to burn.