and we clinch no worse than a three in the BE Tournament. That would be huge.
14-4, 25-6....those would be huge numbers. If we put up those numbers and still ended up a 3....so be it.
Quote from: tower912 on February 23, 2012, 08:33:06 AM
14-4, 25-6....those would be huge numbers. If we put up those numbers and still ended up a 3....so be it.
Time to get greedy, why settle for 2 and 1. I say 3 and 0 and a couple of bet wins. The way this team is playing right now they should be able to do it. Tall order with two tough road games on the schedule against desperate teams.
Is a number 1 seed possible?
Does a win on Friday guarantee a double-bye? Our magic number against any potential team must be pretty low now.
Quote from: mug644 on February 23, 2012, 08:46:00 AM
Does a win on Friday guarantee a double-bye? Our magic number against any potential team must be pretty low now.
No because Georgetown can go 3-0 and have the tiebreaker against us. You want to be 2 or 3 so you stay away from Syracuse until the finals.
Quote from: hairyworthen on February 23, 2012, 08:42:19 AM
Time to get greedy, why settle for 2 and 1. I say 3 and 0 and a couple of bet wins. The way this team is playing right now they should be able to do it. Tall order with two tough road games on the schedule against desperate teams.
Is a number 1 seed possible?
In the Big East or in the Tourney? The answer is probably no to each. I don't see Syracuse folding down the stretch. As far as the Big Dance, we would need to win out, win the BEast tourney, and get some help. Syracuse, Kentucky, Big 12 champ and Big 10 champ are the probable #1's.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 23, 2012, 08:48:16 AM
No because Georgetown can go 3-0 and have the tiebreaker against us. You want to be 2 or 3 so you stay away from Syracuse until the finals.
Not too mention, if you are a 2 or 3, you get to play in the evening session, which is great for those that work, plus more eyes on MU is never a bad thing.
Quote from: reinko on February 23, 2012, 08:52:16 AM
Not too mention, if you are a 2 or 3, you get to play in the evening session, which is great for those that work, plus more eyes on MU is never a bad thing.
I think this means I greedily would rather have them 6th than 4th.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 23, 2012, 08:48:16 AM
No because Georgetown can go 3-0 and have the tiebreaker against us. You want to be 2 or 3 so you stay away from Syracuse until the finals.
I don't want the 4-seed because I'm afraid that Louisville will be the 5, and I would rather see them again sometime next year.
Honestly, I don't have a problem with MU taking on Syracuse in the semifinal. MU would have nothing to lose in that match-up. I doubt that a loss to 'Cuse would hurt MU seed and a win could push MU above a team or two on the S-curve.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 23, 2012, 08:54:36 AM
I think this means I greedily would rather have them 6th than 4th.
At first glance many would take the double bye...but you can make an argument for the single bye, if it meant being on the opposite side of the Cuse bracket.
I'd love a shot at ND in the semifinals. We owe those guys.
Quote from: reinko on February 23, 2012, 08:52:16 AM
Not too mention, if you are a 2 or 3, you get to play in the evening session, which is great for those that work, plus more eyes on MU is never a bad thing.
Dying for this.
Quote from: tower912 on February 23, 2012, 08:49:41 AM
In the Big East or in the Tourney? The answer is probably no to each. I don't see Syracuse folding down the stretch. As far as the Big Dance, we would need to win out, win the BEast tourney, and get some help. Syracuse, Kentucky, Big 12 champ and Big 10 champ are the probable #1's.
We can't get the #1 seed in the BEAST tourney. Only Notre Dame can overtake Cuse if they win out and Cuse loses out. I still don't think a #1 seed in the NCAA's is unattainable if we win out. It means we'll add road wins over WVU and Cincy, a home win over Georgetown and neutral court wins over most likely ND and Cuse. All of those are tournament teams (as of right now). That would put us at 29-5 while winning 17 of our last 18. The more I think about it, I'm not sure how we're not a #1 seed in this scenario.
Quote from: hairyworthen on February 23, 2012, 08:42:19 AM
Time to get greedy, why settle for 2 and 1. I say 3 and 0 and a couple of bet wins. The way this team is playing right now they should be able to do it. Tall order with two tough road games on the schedule against desperate teams.
Is a number 1 seed possible?
KY is likely #1 overall with an SEC-T championship or runner-up.
NC or Duke should grab at least one of the remaining 1-seeds if either wins the ACC-T.
KU or Mizzou should grab another if either wins the B12-T.
MSU will likely get a 1-seed if they win the B?-T.
Unless the teams ahead of us on the S-Curve flame out over the next couple weeks, it will take a BET championship for MU to get a 1-seed.
Win out the regular season and BET, and they would probably displace MSU from a 1-seed.
2-1 and win the BET, and a 1-seed is possible if four of the above don't win their respective tourneys.
BennyB, you forgot Syracuse. Pretty sure they are a #1 unless they collapse.
I think a #1 seed in the Big Dance is wishful thinking. Even if we win out, I don't see it happening. The teams we would go up against are too "sexy" and their names carry too much weight. MSU, Kansas, Duke, UNC, Ohio St. These are the heavyweights of the current college basketball world.
You can't tell me that if we have the same number of losses as those teams (5-6 range), that the committee would seed us as a #1 over them. I'm not saying its fair, but I think its the reality.
On a different note, would we rather be the last #2 seed, or the top-rated #3 seed? Would there by a better chance of us being in the Midwest Region as the top #3 seed?
As much as I'd love to see them get the #2 seed, I am totally fine with #3. Looks almost like an easier road, plus I have to work on that Thurs/Friday until 8:00, so it would work well if they got #3 so I could watch the game, as I'm pretty sure the #3 has the late games.
Barring a crazy run by us, in conjunction with an epic collapse by a number of teams, we are likely a 3 seed. And I can live with that.
Both the #2 and the #3 play night games...
I'm still not convinced Louisville is going to get that 5-seed. If there's a three-way tie between them, Cincy, and USF, the Bearcats would be the 5 and UL the 6. In that scenario, I'd much rather have the 2-seed (and USF) than the 3-seed and the Cardinals. Honestly, if that happened, I'd expect to see Louisville and not Notre Dame on Friday.
Does anyone have an updated bracket of the Big East Tourney (If season ended today)?
Lotsa talk about seeds here. It's like we're a bunch of gardeners.
Some are talking about BET seeds and others talking about NCAA seeds.
BET: Nice to be a 2 or 3 to play at night.
NCAA: 3 likely, 2 attainable, 1 highly unlikely but slightly possible with significant outside help. Of course, 4 or 5 still possible if we fade starting Friday. Which we won't. So never mind!
Odds from Pomeroy's site
5% of losing the last three games
30% odds of winning one out of the last three
42% odds of winning two out of three
20% odds of winning three out of three
If it ended right now...
Tuesday Games
(9) Connecticut v (16) DePaul
(10) West Virginia v (15) Providence
(11) St. John's v (14) Villanova
(12) Rutgers v (13) Pittsburgh
Wednesday Games
(5) South Florida v Connecticut/DePaul
(6) Cincinnati v West Virginia/Providence
(7) Louisville v St. John's/Villanova
(8) Seton Hall v Rutgers/Pittsburgh
Thursday Games
(1) Syracuse v Seton Hall/Rutgers/Pittsburgh
(2) Notre Dame v Louisville/St. John's/Villanova
(3) Marquette v Cincinnati/West Virginia/Providence
(4) Georgetown v South Florida/Connecticut/DePaul
Friday Games
Syracuse/Seton Hall/Rutgers/Pittsburgh v Georgetown/South Florida/Connecticut/DePaul
Notre Dame/Louisville/St. John's/Villanova v Marquette/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Providence
Saturday Game
Championship
Quote from: tower912 on February 23, 2012, 11:04:21 AM
BennyB, you forgot Syracuse. Pretty sure they are a #1 unless they collapse.
I was working off a presumption that MU beats Syracuse in the BET finals. Even if both MU and Cuse win out, you'd likely be dealing with two top-5 RPI teams at that point (MU being #8 currently). Cuse is #1 RPI right now.... they can't get any better. MU has two road games and home against a top-20 RPI team. MU could very well leapfrog into the top 5 RPI before the BET even starts. When the committee is dealing with two top-5 RPI teams in the same conference with similar SOS that close together on the S-Curve on Selection Sunday morning, I think the committee is going weigh heavily on head-to-head, and I don't think they will give anywhere near the credit to Syracuse's win at home over two months ago than they would to MU's win on a neutral court just a few hours ago.
In fact, I think that they could both end up as #1's. But I think MU gets the nod if they beat Syracuse in the BET, and potentially #1 overall if Baylor, FSU & Vandy win their respective conference tourneys.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2012, 11:46:40 AM
If it ended right now...
Tuesday Games
(9) Connecticut v (16) DePaul
(10) West Virginia v (15) Providence
(11) St. John's v (14) Villanova
(12) Rutgers v (13) Pittsburgh
Wednesday Games
(5) South Florida v Connecticut/DePaul
(6) Cincinnati v West Virginia/Providence
(7) Louisville v St. John's/Villanova
(8) Seton Hall v Rutgers/Pittsburgh
Thursday Games
(1) Syracuse v Seton Hall/Rutgers/Pittsburgh
(2) Notre Dame v Louisville/St. John's/Villanova
(3) Marquette v Cincinnati/West Virginia/Providence
(4) Georgetown v South Florida/Connecticut/DePaul
Friday Games
Syracuse/Seton Hall/Rutgers/Pittsburgh v Georgetown/South Florida/Connecticut/DePaul
Notre Dame/Louisville/St. John's/Villanova v Marquette/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Providence
Saturday Game
Championship
Hmmm. Honestly prefer No. 3 or 4 situation to No. 2.
It's all fluid, though.
If UL wins tonight, that changes things. I'd expect them to finish no worse than 12-6, which would likely put them into the 5 seed (probably tied with Georgetown, but lose out because of head-to-head). I think it's safe to say that of all the teams likely to finish 5th or worse, Louisville is the last one we want to see in the quarterfinals.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 23, 2012, 02:24:22 PM
If UL wins tonight, that changes things. I'd expect them to finish no worse than 12-6, which would likely put them into the 5 seed (probably tied with Georgetown, but lose out because of head-to-head). I think it's safe to say that of all the teams likely to finish 5th or worse, Louisville is the last one we want to see in the quarterfinals.
Agreed, I would like to avoid a (mostly) healthy Louisville as long as possible.