I am new to posting here, and knowing that we have a few days til Uconn I just wanted to know what everyone's thoughts are for how this season will end. My main question is what we have to do to end the season to get a 3 seed, or even a 2. How many wins to end the season must we have, and how far must we go in the Big East Tourney? How much does this change if Davante doesn't come back? Thanks!
5-0/4-1 and win the BET is probably the only way we get a 2 seed
Personally, I think these are the scenarios in which we get a 2 seed:
1) at least 4-1 and then win the BEAST title
2) 5-0 and be competitive in the BEAST title game
To nab a three, I think it requires:
1) 4-1 and one win in the BEAST tourney
2) 3-2 and make it to the title game
3) 2-3 and win the BEAST tourney
I think at this point, Davante has nothing to do with our seeding. If we accomplish the above without him, we've proven we can win with or without him.
Here's my guesses:
- 2-seed: To guarantee it, we need to go 5-0 in conference and win the Big East tourney. ND losing at least one more game or us beating them in the BET would help immensely, as well. The bar is 27-28 wins.
- 3-seed: Do what we've been doing. If we go 4-1 in conference, finish at least tied for 2nd in league play, and get to the Big East title game, we should easily be a 3 and could be a 2. The bar is 25-26 wins.
- Worse than a 3: We're a 3 right now. If we go 2-3 in our last 5 and don't get further than the Big East quarterfinals, we will almost certainly be a 4 or 5. 24 wins or less put us here.
- Davante: His return or absence won't change the bar because we've continued to win without him. But I do think in terms of individual games that could decide seeding, such as @UConn, @WVU, v GT, and in the BET, his presence could be immense.
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I am looking at Saturday's game as one of our most important we have remaining (along with @WVU). For UConn, that is a must-win game. They can't afford to have 8 losses before Syracuse comes to town (though I do believe 8-10 will get them in). Having Gardner back for that would be huge, though I don't want him out there if he isn't ready. We can still afford a loss or two and keep a three seed. Against UConn, we'll need to rebound well, and Gardner could be a huge presence on the glass against a team with three great offensive rebounders.
My question about Davante was not in regards to seeding. What I meant was that do you think we can win the same number of games without him? Or do we win the same number with or without him?
Quote from: ibechillindoe on February 15, 2012, 10:16:40 AM
My question about Davante was not in regards to seeding. What I meant was that do you think we can win the same number of games without him? Or do we win the same number with or without him?
I like the press they put on with Wilson trapping in the back-court, which is something Gardner will not be able to do. We turned a Cinci team over a good amount, and they were quite good at protecting the ball.
I think when he comes back it will be a different style of pressure, but I don't see it hurting us when he comes back other than adjusting to him back in the lineup.
My sense is that a 90% Gardner gives us one more win in the regular season is is very important in the BEast tourney from a fatigue factor. Overall, I think Brew is pretty much on the money. My gut tells me we land around a 3-4 and that his calculus is about right.
Quote from: ibechillindoe on February 15, 2012, 10:16:40 AMMy question about Davante was not in regards to seeding. What I meant was that do you think we can win the same number of games without him? Or do we win the same number with or without him?
Davante will be most important against teams that like to run multiple bigs. He would have a big impact against Connecticut, West Virginia, and Georgetown. Of course, he would be helpful against any team in the tournament.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 15, 2012, 10:45:11 AM
Davante will be most important against teams that like to run multiple bigs. He would have a big impact against Connecticut, West Virginia, and Georgetown. Of course, he would be helpful against any team in the tournament.
I think he is most important at Uconn. Even if Drummond is out with his ankle, they still have capable bigs. I think this Uconn game will be the telling game to end this season. Can we keep this momentum up, especially after a week off?