Hello fellow Fanatics!
So I was reading a few blogs on CBS sports, and this one gentleman brought up the fact that getting to the Sweet 16 for teams like Duke, UNC, Ohio State, etc is a down year.
Considering Marquette is ranked higher then 16 in the polls, would it be considered a "down year" if we only made it to that level?
To me, no..however I was just curious on everybody else's perspective.
We are not ranked in the top 8 and therefore should not expect to get past the sweet 16. That does not mean we won't, but it is not expected. I would be dissappointed, if we lost in the first round.
So similar question, would you rather be a 2 seed and play farther away, or have a 3 seed and possibly play in Columbus or somewhere close?
I would say it depends on our draw. If we lose to a Cinderella or get blown out like last year, yes. If we face a legit opponent and it's a tough match up, I'd still be upset that we lost, but it wouldn't make the season a disappointment.
I'd never be unhappy with a Sweet 16 run. What, we've got 3 of them in the last 20 years?
If we lose in the S16 or E8 to a 7 or below seed than yes.
Any sweet 16 run is a good one at this point. Only a few programs, Duke, UNC, Sparty, Kentucky, would consider that a down year. We aren't there yet. 10 years from now, in year 14 of the Buzz dynasty, after three final 4's in 5 years, it will be considered a down year. ;D
I always feel that if we make the Sweet 16, it is a Great year. After that, it is such a crap shoot. You catch a hot team, you play a bad game, you get a bad match up etc...
Lets not forget we were an 11 seed last year and beat a 3 seed. stuff like that happens.
The nice part of getting a 3 or 4 seed means you should have a high likelihood that you win your first game at least...
A "down year"? Hell no. Is it a disappointing tournament run if we don't at least hold our seed, which as of now is a 3 or 4? Yes.
Agreed. If we end up a protected seed, anything less than the sweet 16 would be a disappointment.
If you get to the sweet 16 orenter the tournament with a top 4 seed, it's a successful season (even if you get upset in the first 2 rounds with that top 4 seed. Sometimes you get upset).
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on February 14, 2012, 06:56:30 PM
If you get to the sweet 16 orenter the tournament with a top 4 seed, it's a successful season (even if you get upset in the first 2 rounds with that top 4 seed. Sometimes you get upset).
How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?
Quote from: godzilla on February 14, 2012, 07:59:55 PM
How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?
Yeah, I think the Pitt fans are sick of getting top seeds and choking. I'd feel the same way. We've had some seasons where it really is successul ('06, '10) despite losing in the first round with a better seed, but it's different when the team greatly outperforms expectations to get there. A top four seed might be overachiving, but we expected to make the tournament and at least win a game in it from the beginning - getting a better seed and thus an easier path makes it a little disappointing to not advance.
Quote from: jsglow on February 14, 2012, 05:56:14 PM
I'd never be unhappy with a Sweet 16 run. What, we've got 3 of them in the last 20 years?
By my count 3 Sweet 16s in the last 32 seasons. Getting to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament is not a disappointing season by any stretch. It would take at least a half dozen consecutive top 10 seasons before I'm jaded enough to call a sweet 16 season a disappointment.
Quote from: godzilla on February 14, 2012, 07:59:55 PM
How is it a successful season if you lose in the first round?
How is it not? If you enter the tournament as a 4 seed but lose in the first or second round, does it make you any worse than you were before the tournament started, or did you just lose a game? Disappointing? Sure, but is playing and losing that one additional game really the thing that makes a
season successful? Pretty sure I couldn't name 8 of last year's sweet 16.
One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on February 14, 2012, 10:47:35 PM
How is it not? If you enter the tournament as a 4 seed but lose in the first or second round, does it make you any worse than you were before the tournament started, or did you just lose a game? Disappointing? Sure, but is playing and losing that one additional game really the thing that makes a season successful? Pretty sure I couldn't name 8 of last year's sweet 16.
One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?
I'm having a hard time figuring out your point, he said first round not first or second round....and "One team wins their last game, so does that make all other team's unsuccessful?" Again, not what he said.
When you consider yourself a top 20 program then getting the tournament is to be expected 95% of the time, Wisconsin has made it 14 straight years. I consider Marquette to be on their level (a tad better because I'm biased). So yeah, losing in the first round is extremely disappointing....I find it even more disappointing that you don't feel the same way.
Currently even though we are ranked 12/13, we are given a 43% chance of making the Sweet 16, a 5% chance of making the Final Four, and just below a 1% chance of being national champions on Lunardi's latest odds.
So I would say that objectively, making the Sweet 16 is a big success this year because we have overcome the odds as there is a slightly better chance we are at home on the second weekend.
I know it sounds like the Top 16 teams should be better than 50-50, but typically some of them aren't just because of how close teams are bunched. You may have a 53% chance of winning your second game, but if you also had only an 80% chance of winning even an easy first game, overall the odds are below 50-50 that you win both.
So I would encourage people to think of a Sweet 16 as a big success, even if we don't take the huge next step to go Elite 8.
Subjectively, I think that losing the first weekend will be viewed as a huge disappointment even though there is a better than 50-50 that happens. All the disappointments about the Three Amigos never making the Sweet 16, whether you view it as them being overrated or simply bad luck with injuries, is now coupled with last year's team becoming only the 2nd No. 11 seed to make the Sweet 16 I believe. So even though this year the team has taken a big step forward over last year's team, a 2nd round loss would throw all that out the window for many fans.
Sweet 16 is the realistic goal.
Anything else is gravy.
Quote from: esotericmindguy on February 14, 2012, 11:09:38 PM
So yeah, losing in the first round is extremely disappointing....I find it even more disappointing that you don't feel the same way.
Except for the fact that I clearly said it would be "disappointing." it just doesn't make your season a bust. If you are a team like Marquette, and you spend the majority of the season in the Top 15 or so, you've had a successful year.
To put another wrinkle on it, what if Marquette win the Big East tournament, enters as a 3 seed, and then loses to the 6 seed in the round of 32. I certainly wouldn't call the season a bust...I mean it would be a disappointing ending...but not a bust.
I don't think you can judge an entire season by how you perform in the NCAA tournament. This is one problem I have with sports fans. The journey should be enjoyed. It may have a disappointing ending, but that doesn't mean the journey itself wasn't fun. It's like the MU fans and the 2003 Final Four run. Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time. But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game. Yet for many fans, the first thing I hear when discussing the Final Four is the Kansas game.
Fan like that will never be happy unless they win a championship. And I would rather enjoy the journey and have fun along the way rather than being disappointed 99% of the time.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 15, 2012, 07:55:37 AMTo put another wrinkle on it, what if Marquette win the Big East tournament, enters as a 3 seed, and then loses to the 6 seed in the round of 32. I certainly wouldn't call the season a bust...I mean it would be a disappointing ending...but not a bust.
I'd be very happy with winning the Big East tournament, but I would definitely hope for that to be a precursor to more success. In the past five years, the Big East tournament champ has gone to the Final Four three times and only once (Pitt 2008) failed to reach the Elite Eight.
But if I could only have one, I'd take Big East tournament win over Elite Eight appearance any day.
If we win the Big east tournament i could see a posible 2 seed if we win 4 of the next 5 as well.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 15, 2012, 07:55:37 AM
I don't think you can judge an entire season by how you perform in the NCAA tournament. This is one problem I have with sports fans. The journey should be enjoyed. It may have a disappointing ending, but that doesn't mean the journey itself wasn't fun. It's like the MU fans and the 2003 Final Four run. Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time. But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game. Yet for many fans, the first thing I hear when discussing the Final Four is the Kansas game.
While I agree with your comments, history has a different way of viewing things. Over a few years, people remember Conference Championships (Regular and Post Season), NCAA berth's, Sweet 16's, Elite 8's and Final 4's.
MU could finish 28-7, with the losses in the BE Championship and NCAA 1st game, and historically it will be remembered as an NCAA Team. Harsh, but that is the way it get's remembered. Not by the diehards, but to the rest of the populice.
It all depends on matchups. Sometimes you just get screwed.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 15, 2012, 07:55:37 AM
Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time. But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game.
For me, as a player and a fan, losing always feels worse than winning feels good. I hate losing more than I like winning. Crappy outlook, I know, but that's how I'm wired.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 15, 2012, 07:55:37 AM
Fan like that will never be happy unless they win a championship. And I would rather enjoy the journey and have fun along the way rather than being disappointed 99% of the time.
exactly. if you are only happy when your team wins it all, you are not enjoying sports very much.
Quote from: MUMac on February 15, 2012, 08:11:58 AM
While I agree with your comments, history has a different way of viewing things. Over a few years, people remember Conference Championships (Regular and Post Season), NCAA berth's, Sweet 16's, Elite 8's and Final 4's.
MU could finish 28-7, with the losses in the BE Championship and NCAA 1st game, and historically it will be remembered as an NCAA Team. Harsh, but that is the way it get's remembered. Not by the diehards, but to the rest of the populice.
I would guess that the rest of the populace couldn't tell you who was in the final four last year or previous years much less the sweet 16.
Quote from: gmhfordham1015 on February 15, 2012, 08:10:17 AMIf we win the Big east tournament i could see a posible 2 seed if we win 4 of the next 5 as well.
Dead-on. Teams ahead of us are going to lose. If we finish 15-3 or 14-4 in Big East play and win the BET, I expect a #2 seed. We'll be the hot team, the Big 12 won't send three teams in as 2-seeds or better, and there's a decent chance either Duke or UNC could drop to the 3-line if they fail to reach the ACC title game, especially if FSU manages to finish in the top-two of the ACC.
Quote from: hairyworthen on February 15, 2012, 09:20:32 AMexactly. if you are only happy when your team wins it all, you are not enjoying sports very much.
Or you are a Manchester United fan.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 15, 2012, 09:32:22 AM
Or you are a Manchester United fan.
If you are a soccer fan you probably have much bigger issues anyway.
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 15, 2012, 09:08:44 AM
For me, as a player and a fan, losing always feels worse than winning feels good. I hate losing more than I like winning. Crappy outlook, I know, but that's how I'm wired.
Yeah, that's the way I look at it, too. Winning is more a relief than anything.
And the reason the Kansas game stands out more than the Kentucky win was just the utter futility of the whole thing. To get that far and not even make a representative showing...
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 15, 2012, 09:08:44 AM
For me, as a player and a fan, losing always feels worse than winning feels good. I hate losing more than I like winning. Crappy outlook, I know, but that's how I'm wired.
It's called being a competitor, and I'm the same way. The "journey" that some can thoroughly enjoy in the moment has been mostly a means to an end for me - winning mostly a relief until it's that "final" win. Frustrating, but on the rare occasions when it actually happens - Whoa Baby!
I'm getting better about it with age - last year's win in the round of 32 against Syracuse was as much fun as a Final Four win would have been 30 years ago, but I'll never smell the roses along the way as well as some do - except in retrospect.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on February 15, 2012, 10:27:03 AM
It's called being a competitor, and I'm the same way. The "journey" that some can thoroughly enjoy in the moment has been mostly a means to an end for me - winning mostly a relief until it's that "final" win. Frustrating, but on the rare occasions when it actually happens - Whoa Baby!
I'm getting better about it with age - last year's win in the round of 32 against Syracuse was as much fun as a Final Four win would have been 30 years ago, but I'll never smell the roses along the way as well as some do - except in retrospect.
I get that, except we are not competitors we are fans that have no control over how the team does.
Quote from: hairyworthen on February 15, 2012, 09:20:32 AM
I would guess that the rest of the populace couldn't tell you who was in the final four last year or previous years much less the sweet 16.
Correct, they couldn't. But how many lists do you see that tell you how many Sweet 16's, Elite 8's and Final 4's a School has been in? In this thread, it was mentioned that MU has been in 3 Sweet 16's, the last 30 or so years. No mention of any other team. That is my point. If MU finishes out the season with only a loss in the BE Championship Game and the 1st Round of the NCAA's, most will not remember how good the team was, how they played through injury .... They will only remember where they finished in the NCAA's.
Just like the Amigo's final season. All that is remembered is that MU lost in the 2nd Round to Missouri. Nothing more about the fact they were Top 10 for a chunch of the season ...
Quote from: Rudy on February 15, 2012, 08:29:10 AM
It all depends on matchups. Sometimes you just get screwed.
Totally agree.
Success in the tournament is a TON of fun, but I can't judge our team solely on tourney success. You never know when you're going to come up against a Cornell that shoots 70% from 3.
Quote from: Skatastrophy on February 15, 2012, 11:25:59 AM
Totally agree.
Success in the tournament is a TON of fun, but I can't judge our team solely on tourney success. You never know when you're going to come up against a Cornell that shoots 70% from 3.
+1
Or face twin towers from Stanford. When MU lost to Missouri, Stanford and Washington, I felt the seasons were successful. Those teams were fun to watch and ousted late in the games. Had chances to win each. I cannot remember those teams solely on the losses and when they occurred at the end of the season.
Last year was fun, getting to the Sweet 16. But to me that team was not better than, nor did they out perform, the prior 3 teams MU put on the floor.
Quote from: CTWarrior on February 15, 2012, 09:08:44 AM
For me, as a player and a fan, losing always feels worse than winning feels good. I hate losing more than I like winning. Crappy outlook, I know, but that's how I'm wired.
you are actually wired like most people. Look up "Loss Aversion" and you will see what I mean.
In essence. Losing something hurts more than winning something feels good.
Quote from: hairyworthen on February 15, 2012, 09:20:32 AM
exactly. if you are only happy when your team wins it all, you are not enjoying sports very much.
I would guess that the rest of the populace couldn't tell you who was in the final four last year or previous years much less the sweet 16.
Maybe I'm just insane or have a good memory, but off the top of my head I can name...:
Kentucky
Ohio State
Marquette
Syracuse
Duke
Arizona
UCONN
San Diego State
Kansas
Richmond
VCU
Florida State
Butler
Wisconsin
Florida
BYU
I just go from final four and trace the way back to the sweet sixteen matchups. Then again, I'm more obsessed with March than most people.
As far as the Big East Tournament goes, I just feel like this is our year to take it. Especially if we can earn the 2 or 3 seed and avoid Syracuse until the final.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on February 15, 2012, 07:55:37 AM
...It's like the MU fans and the 2003 Final Four run. Yeah, the Kansas game sucked big time. But my joy after the Kentucky game way exceeded my sorrow during the Kansas game. Yet for many fans, the first thing I hear when discussing the Final Four is the Kansas game.
Fan like that will never be happy unless they win a championship. And I would rather enjoy the journey and have fun along the way rather than being disappointed 99% of the time.
Well, of course the Final Four memory is the Kansas game, 'cuz that's all we had and it was pathetic. But my memories of the whole season are much more positive, highlighted by the Kentucky win.
Quote from: MUEagle1090 on February 15, 2012, 01:45:06 PM
Maybe I'm just insane or have a good memory, but off the top of my head I can name...:
Kentucky
Ohio State
Marquette
Syracuse
Duke
Arizona
UCONN
San Diego State
Kansas
Richmond
VCU
Florida State
Butler
Wisconsin
Florida
BYU
I just go from final four and trace the way back to the sweet sixteen matchups. Then again, I'm more obsessed with March than most people.
As far as the Big East Tournament goes, I just feel like this is our year to take it. Especially if we can earn the 2 or 3 seed and avoid Syracuse until the final.
Syracuse was not in last year's Sweet 16, as that's who we beat to get there.
Quote from: mug644 on February 15, 2012, 02:08:55 PM
Well, of course the Final Four memory is the Kansas game, 'cuz that's all we had and it was pathetic. But my memories of the whole season are much more positive, highlighted by the Kentucky win.
Syracuse was not in last year's Sweet 16, as that's who we beat to get there.
Yup. Missing UNC, who kicked our ass in the S16.
Quote from: mug644 on February 15, 2012, 02:08:55 PM
Well, of course the Final Four memory is the Kansas game, 'cuz that's all we had and it was pathetic. But my memories of the whole season are much more positive, highlighted by the Kentucky win.
Syracuse was not in last year's Sweet 16, as that's who we beat to get there.
Of course. I knew that but traced back one round too far. Missed one of the two teams who should have been impossible to miss.