MUScoop

Bracketology: Jan 30

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

This week's bracket was especially difficult, and really got tough starting around the 6-line. Mainly because most of the teams I wanted to consider have been losing lately. Most of them multiple times. And as I went further down the bracket, the worse the teams looked. Most of the teams near the bubble don't really deserve to be anywhere close to it, but the expanded field has made this a reality. Teams like Iowa State and Colorado State both in the field essentially on the basis of one good win. Teams like Notre Dame and UCF warranting consideration despite having as many sub-100 losses as they do top-50 wins. Anyway...let's look at the bracket:



(http://i240.photobucket.com/albums/ff102/brewcity77/Bracket2.jpg)
 (http://s240.photobucket.com/albums/ff102/brewcity77/?action=view&current=Bracket2.jpg)


The Big Ten has the most bids with 8, and again the Big East is on their heels with 7. Northwestern and Cincinnati dropped out of the field, respectively. Behind them, the SEC has 6, the Big 12 and A-10 each have 5, the ACC and Mountain West have 4 each, the West Coast has 3, and C-USA, the Pac-12, and the Missouri Valley have 2 each.

The last four byes went to Purdue, Xavier, BYU, and Dayton. The last four teams in the field were St. Louis, Iowa State, Colorado State, and Arkansas. The lowest RPI team to earn an at-large bid was #66 Arkansas while the lowest KenPom team in was #107 Colorado State.

The first four teams out were Notre Dame, NC State, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. The next four out were UCF, Texas, Northwestern, and Cincinnati. The highest snubbed RPI team was #48 Texas while the highest snubbed KenPom team was also Texas, rated #20.

From a Marquette perspective, my biggest fear would be overlooking a solid Davidson team. I feel that both Memphis and BYU are dangerous but beatable, and wouldn't fear either Duke or Illinois, though I'd expect a tough game. What surprised me the most was simply that MU has played their way up to the 3-line. But with virtually everyone crashing around them while Buzz Williams' team continues to simply win, it's hard not to have them up there. The field really starts to fall off in a hurry.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/bracketology-jan-30.html

Thoughts line-by-line...

• 1-seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, and tOSU are easy. Baylor was not. But while they lost to Kansas and Mizzou, two teams some would argue should be there instead of them, they don't have any objectionable losses, which both of those teams have. I still like Baylor on the top line.
  
• 2-seeds: All easy picks, really no-brainers, in my opinion. The only question was whether to put Duke or UNC in the Southeast. Duke is leading the ACC, so they got the nod.
  
• 3-seeds: This is where the teams start to drop-off. Are any of these four, even Marquette, really 3-seeds? I'm not sure, but there simply isn't anyone behind them that merits a higher seeding.
  
• 4-seeds: These are all solid teams (well...maybe not Murray State) but have their flaws. The only one really trending up is Florida, who jumped 4 lines since last week thanks to consistent play.
  
• 5-seeds: Like Florida, Wisconsin got a big jump (3 lines) for consistency of late. Indiana and Vandy could have dropped, but other teams have been worse than them of late. St. Mary's steps up a line because many other teams stepped down.
  
• 6-seeds: Memphis is the only one of these teams not to lose in the past week. That's a big reason why it got tough seeding teams from here on out.
  
• 7-seeds: FSU and Louisville could both end up much higher if they keep winning. UConn and Illinois could both end up much lower if they keep losing. The Huskies dropped 3 seed lines.
  
• 8-seeds: Fairly mundane group, though I do like what Southern Miss has been doing of late, and I love the idea of WVU matching up with Beilein. Gonzaga and New Mexico...classic mid-major mid-seeds.
  
• 9-seeds: Cal really should be the only Pac-12 team in the Dance, while Michigan and Seton Hall are both high-majors going the wrong way. Temple is probably the best team here.
  
• 10-seeds: Two very good mid-majors (Harvard and Middle Tennessee) and two mid-level SEC teams, any of them could win a game or two in the tourney.
  
• 11-seeds: Xavier and BYU are both really dangerous in this spot, while I feel both Purdue and Minnesota probably wouldn't go far.
  
• 12-seeds: There's always a 5/12 upset, and with Long Beach and Dayton in there, I'd expect to see another one or two. I'd also love to see SLU win their Play-In so we could watch Crean v Majerus.
  
• 13-seeds: UMass and Washington don't belong, but are conference leaders right now. Cleveland State could be a dangerous underdog, and I think CSU has a bit of that VCU-type danger to them.
  
• 14-seeds: The only team here that doesn't scream "danger" to me is Akron. Any of the other three are capable of pulling an upset in March, especially if they are up against a suspect 3.
  
• 15-seeds: Will we see a 15/2 upset? If it were Weber State over UNC or Bucknell over Kansas, it'd be a repeat of a past major upset. But my money would be on George Mason creating a little more history against Duke...
  
• 16-seeds: Yeah...they're all pushovers. Wait...not all. I think Norfolk State could give Baylor a game. They played competitively with both MU and Va Tech. Of course, March upsets will probably ensure most of these spots go to even worse teams than the ones currently in line for the final auto-bids.