MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: JoBo2756 on January 24, 2012, 10:16:08 PM

Title: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: JoBo2756 on January 24, 2012, 10:16:08 PM
This is a total jinx post but seriously... its definitely a possibility... I mean probably not going to happen... but maybe!

The only games that scare me are @ND, @WV, @Cincy and Georgetown... but who knows. Even if that happens, we'd be 10-6 in BEAST play. Not too too bad.

Then again, maybe we have a relapse to our earlier BEAST play and lose Cincy at home or @Rutgers.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: jsglow on January 24, 2012, 10:24:28 PM
Schedule has some real challenges in it.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Villy on the road this weekend will be a significant challenge and an accomplishment when (if) they win.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Spaniel with a Short Tail on January 24, 2012, 10:25:02 PM
At West Virginia will be a tough task.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Windyplayer on January 24, 2012, 10:25:50 PM
Quote from: JoBo2756 on January 24, 2012, 10:16:08 PM
This is a total jinx post but seriously... its definitely a possibility... I mean probably not going to happen... but maybe!

The only games that scare me are @ND, @WV, @Cincy and Georgetown... but who knows. Even if that happens, we'd be 10-6 in BEAST play. Not too too bad.

Then again, maybe we have a relapse to our earlier BEAST play and lose Cincy at home or @Rutgers.
Games that scare you account for 40% of our remaining games so this is an optimistic post to say the least. That said, you never know, but winning in Morgantown, Cincy, South Bend, and Storrs in the same season is nearly impossible. FYI, the Rutgers game is at the BC.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on January 24, 2012, 10:27:40 PM
If we only lose 4 more, we'd end up at 12-6.  

And we play Rutgers at the BC (thankfully, as they've knocked off some pretty good teams at the RAC this year in Florida & UConn).

To answer you question, kenpom.com gives us about a 1% chance to finish 16-2 (finish undefeated), 4% chance to finish 15-3, 13% chance to finish 14-4, 22% chance to finish 13-5, and a 26% chance to finish 12-6.  These odds will probably increase slightly after tonight's win as well.  Long story short, odds are in our favor to finish at or above our best BEast regular season mark yet.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: brewcity77 on January 24, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
It's easy to write off UConn right now, but they have all the talent in the world. We don't see them for about a month. Don't be surprised if they are much improved, even if it's without Boatright, and if that is one of our toughest games of the rest of the year. The players are there, and as we saw last year, they can gel later in the season.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: DCWarriors04 on January 24, 2012, 10:30:03 PM
anything is possible
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on January 24, 2012, 10:31:34 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 24, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
It's easy to write off UConn right now, but they have all the talent in the world.

Definitely expect a loss in  Hartford.  We had no business winning that game there last year and I'm sure they'll be looking for some payback.  Plus all the other reasons you stated.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: DCWarriors04 on January 24, 2012, 10:34:51 PM
10 games left (4 at home and 6 on the road); take care of business at home and win at least 2 on the road and I'll be happy with that.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: SaveOD238 on January 24, 2012, 10:39:44 PM
Quote from: Jamailman on January 24, 2012, 10:31:34 PM
Definitely expect a loss in  Hartford.  We had no business winning that game there last year and I'm sure they'll be looking for some payback.  Plus all the other reasons you stated.

Didn't we win in Storrs last year?  Where is this years game?
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: DCWarriors04 on January 24, 2012, 10:40:11 PM
Hartford
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on January 24, 2012, 10:44:18 PM
Quote from: ODMU238 on January 24, 2012, 10:39:44 PM
Didn't we win in Storrs last year?  Where is this years game?

Definitely Hartford for both - I went last year and I'll be going again this year.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: mug644 on January 25, 2012, 12:45:55 AM
This question is similar to having asked if we could go undefeated in out of conference play after we beat UW in Madison. Yeah, it's possible, but high unlikely.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: tower912 on January 25, 2012, 02:37:13 AM
Anything is possible, but I certainly would not wager any large sums on it. 
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: chapman on January 25, 2012, 07:39:57 AM
1% chance is about right, many challenges left.  Cincy twice, @ND, @WVU, @UConn, GTown on Senior Day which under Buzz has been cursed, even the next one @Nova.  Schedule definitely gets tougher.  I'd be giddy to have less than 6 conference losses.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: BrewCity83 on January 25, 2012, 08:21:24 AM
Quote from: Jamailman on January 24, 2012, 10:27:40 PM
If we only lose 4 more, we'd end up at 12-6.  

And we play Rutgers at the BC (thankfully, as they've knocked off some pretty good teams at the RAC this year in Florida & UConn).

To answer you question, kenpom.com gives us about a 1% chance to finish 16-2 (finish undefeated), 4% chance to finish 15-3, 13% chance to finish 14-4, 22% chance to finish 13-5, and a 26% chance to finish 12-6.  These odds will probably increase slightly after tonight's win as well.  Long story short, odds are in our favor to finish at or above our best BEast regular season mark yet.

That gives us a 67% chance to be 12-6 or better. 
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: lab_warrior on January 25, 2012, 12:02:17 PM
Quote from: JoBo2756 on January 24, 2012, 10:16:08 PM
This is a total jinx post but seriously... its definitely a possibility... I mean probably not going to happen... but maybe!

The only games that scare me are @ND, @WV, @Cincy and Georgetown... but who knows. Even if that happens, we'd be 10-6 in BEAST play. Not too too bad.

Then again, maybe we have a relapse to our earlier BEAST play and lose Cincy at home or @Rutgers.

I like the swagger.  And we have a puncher's chance.  But I think Winston Wolf portrays my sentiments.  One game at a time, folks.

http://www.youtube.com/v/7rNXP2ndT9M&fs=1&source=uds
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Dawson Rental on January 25, 2012, 02:35:25 PM
Quote from: Jamailman on January 24, 2012, 10:27:40 PM
If we only lose 4 more, we'd end up at 12-6.  

And we play Rutgers at the BC (thankfully, as they've knocked off some pretty good teams at the RAC this year in Florida & UConn).

To answer you question, kenpom.com gives us about a 1% chance to finish 16-2 (finish undefeated), 4% chance to finish 15-3, 13% chance to finish 14-4, 22% chance to finish 13-5, and a 26% chance to finish 12-6.  These odds will probably increase slightly after tonight's win as well.  Long story short, odds are in our favor to finish at or above our best BEast regular season mark yet.

Lloyd: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: lab_warrior on January 25, 2012, 02:45:26 PM
I would argue that 1% is a MUCH LARGER chance than one in a million...imagine Lloyd Christmas' optimism if here were an MU fan.

(http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/images/photos/001/003/247/LloydChristmas_crop_340x234.gif?1281145243)

Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: DCWarriors04 on January 25, 2012, 07:20:48 PM
Proof that anything is possible, St Johns beating WVU
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: Brewtown Andy on January 26, 2012, 02:05:12 AM
Quote from: Jamailman on January 24, 2012, 10:27:40 PM
If we only lose 4 more, we'd end up at 12-6.  

And we play Rutgers at the BC (thankfully, as they've knocked off some pretty good teams at the RAC this year in Florida & UConn).

And lost to DePaul tonight.

Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: strotty on January 26, 2012, 03:06:26 AM
The biggest thing going for Marquette is they have a base. Only two other teams have accumulated six wins. I don't care what the competition was for Marquette or other teams, it's a great start and now the Golden Eagles do not have to play from behind. They won't be relaxing or resting on six wins, but from one perspective it's great to already have six wins "in the book." One way to look at it is that Marquette hasn't had a slip-up yet, which not many teams in the Big East can say.

Whether or not that translates to a Big East regular season championship is unknown, but it's great that Marquette has jumped out and picked up six big wins.
Title: Re: Could we win out BEAST play?
Post by: MUDPT on January 26, 2012, 06:27:10 AM
According to Ken Pom, Marquette will be tied for 2nd with Georgetown at the end of the season at 13-5.  He has favored in every game, except at UConn and at West Virginia.  Every game is huge, but especially Saturday because it is the second most likely road win, behind DePaul. 
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