MUScoop

MU, Gtown, Syracuse and Seton Hall claim 14 of top 25 BE players as MU goes for sole possession of 3rd place tonight

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bamamarquettefan1)

No one would have predicted that Marquette and South Florida would be playing for sole possession of 3rd place in the Big East tonight.  Marquette enters the Bradley Center tonight for a 7 p.m. start with three of the Top 25 players in the conference this year, a feat matched by Syracuse, Georgetown and Seton Hall that leaves the other 12 teams in the conference with only 11 between them.

Kevin Jones nudges out Jae Crowder in a two-way race for conference MVP in the Total Value Top 25 listed below, but if the Mountaineers are to stay near the top of the standings this year then Jones will have to carry them by himself as their next best two players barely crack the conference Top 50.  West Virginia's Truck Bryant (39th) and freshman point guard Jaborie Hinds (47th) are having very good but not dominant seasons.  The Top 25 most valuable players to date:

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RnkTop 25 Big East PlayersTeamHtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

1	Kevin Jones	West Virginia	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
2	Jae Crowder	Marquette	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
3	Jeremy Lamb	Connecticut	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
4	Jason Clark	Georgetown	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
5	Dion Waiters	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
6	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
7	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	Seton Hall	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
9	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
10	Herb Pope	Seton Hall	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
11	Kris Joseph	Syracuse	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
12	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
13	Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
14	Jack Cooley	Notre Dame	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
15	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
16	Otto Porter	Georgetown	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
17	Davante Gardner	Marquette	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
18	Kyle Kuric	Louisville	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
19	James Southerland	Syracuse	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
20	Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
21	Bryce Cotton	Providence	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
22	Henry Sims	Georgetown	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
23	Jerian Grant	Notre Dame	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	Marquette	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
25	Brandon Triche	Syracuse	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17

Quick Explanation â€" then the Top 100 players by team:
Total Value is the measurement of the percentage of points a player averages adding to his team’s score with offense and subtracting from the opponents' score with defense on a given night.  The calculation that Crowder adds 5.44% to Marquette’s score and takes 3.84% of the opponents points away with defense (Total Value 9.28%) indicates that Marquette would be projected to drop from a 24-7 team with Crowder to a 16-15 team without him if going by results to date and Pomeroy’s projections for the rest of the year.  The eight games that switch from wins to losses if Crowder is not playing are; Washington, 2nd Norfolk State, Villanova and Pitt as well as projected scores for Seton Hall, Notre Dame, and 2nd Villanova and Georgetown games.  Only Kevin Jones is more valuable in the Big East, and noone else is close.

Thankfully the engineer just finished the program to run Total Value this week, so I am no longer risking mistakes on long spreadsheets as I pinpoint the following three precise calculations:

1. Offensive Value Add was first covered by Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html),  then picked up on by ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/35095/j-j-redick-was-really-really-good), and finally adopted as a building block for other calculations including a recent one from Basketball Prospectus (http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2004).

2. The Defensive Value Subtract is equally important, and has been perfected in recent months by an engineer building my program, but is not nearly as easily grasped and I don't plan to detail the formulas further.  However, while the overall team Defensive Value Subtracts are very accurate, you must use common sense to adjust for on-ball defense and rotations, within the team up to 1% plus or minus per player.  For example, if you adjusted DJOs defense by 1% for his much improved on-ball defense, and subtracted 1% from Gardner's defensive rating for slow rotations, you end up with DJO as the 13th best player in the Big East and Davante Gardner as the 28th best.

3. The NBA Predictor is an adjustment I am finalizing to measure not the impact on the college team, but how much impact the player is likely to have if taken at the next level, as not all great college players can translate their game to the pros but others do surprisingly well.  However, this third part of the program is intended for a much smaller audience so won’t appear here.  There are NBA indicators with DJO that make him a potential first round pick, even though his high turnovers and low steals hold his rating back at the college level.

The first two factors give a very accurate account of every player in the league.  

While certainly Syracuse has the inside track on the championship, in the end they do not appear as dominant to me as Ohio State, Kentucky or even UNC and Duke by the end of the year.  If Marquette can win at Villanova Saturday, a toss-up game due to Nova’s strong offensive rebounding that often gives MU trouble, I believe we can legitimately consider the possibility that MU could win the Big East regular season title in a year in which the conference is down from the past three years.

Here are the Top 100 players grouped by team, starting with tonight’s opponent South Florida.  I also list the projected final conference record based on Pomeroy.


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RnkMarquette (Proj 12-6)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

2	Jae Crowder	6-foot-6	5.44	-3.84	9.28
17	Davante Gardner	6-foot-8	3.47	-1.33	4.80
24	Darius Johnson-Odom	6-foot-2	3.59	-0.59	4.18
51	Jamil Wilson	6-foot-7	1.38	-0.67	2.05
55	Vander Blue	6-foot-4	0.53	-1.44	1.97
61	Todd Mayo	6-foot-3	1.90	0.00	1.90
74	Junior Cadougan	6-foot-1	0.72	-0.66	1.37
85	Chris Otule	6-foot-11	0.00	-0.86	0.86
91	Derrick Wilson	6-foot-0	0.10	-0.37	0.47
94	Jamail Jones	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.36	0.36

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RnkSouth Florida (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

29	Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	6-foot-8	1.74	-2.00	3.74
34	Ron Anderson	6-foot-8	2.83	-0.50	3.33
42	Hugh Robertson	6-foot-6	1.78	-0.81	2.59
76	Augustus Gilchrist	6-foot-10	0.81	-0.44	1.25
83	Shaun Noriega	6-foot-4	0.95	0.00	0.95
84	Jawanza Poland	6-foot-4	0.64	-0.28	0.92
95	LaVonte Dority	6-foot-1	0.35	0.00	0.35

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RnkCincinnati (Proj 11-7)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

13	Sean Kilpatrick	6-foot-4	3.98	-1.16	5.14
31	Cashmere Wright	6-foot-0	1.89	-1.59	3.48
40	Jaquon Parker	6-foot-3	2.48	-0.27	2.75
41	Yancy Gates	6-foot-9	1.43	-1.24	2.66
45	Dion Dixon	6-foot-3	1.72	-0.72	2.44
46	Justin Jackson	6-foot-8	0.59	-1.78	2.37
93	Jermaine Sanders	6-foot-5	0.36	0.00	0.36

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RnkConnecticut (Proj 10-8)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

3	Jeremy Lamb	6-foot-5	6.02	-0.93	6.95
9	Shabazz Napier	6-foot-0	4.71	-1.07	5.78
50	Tyler Olander	6-foot-9	1.68	-0.37	2.06
60	Ryan Boatright	6-foot-0	1.82	-0.09	1.91
73	Niels Giffey	6-foot-7	1.30	-0.08	1.38
80	Alex Oriakhi	6-foot-9	0.74	-0.32	1.07

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RnkDePaul (Proj 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

36	Brandon Young	6-foot-3	3.15	0.00	3.15
48	Jeremiah Kelly	6-foot-0	2.17	0.00	2.17
67	Krys Faber	6-foot-10	1.30	-0.31	1.61
86	Cleveland Melvin	6-foot-8	0.44	-0.37	0.81

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RnkGeorgetown (Proj 13-5)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

4	Jason Clark	6-foot-2	4.29	-2.37	6.66
6	Hollis Thompson	6-foot-8	5.18	-1.10	6.28
16	Otto Porter	6-foot-8	2.27	-2.60	4.87
22	Henry Sims	6-foot-10	2.43	-1.84	4.27
53	Nate Lubick	6-foot-8	1.16	-0.84	2.00
58	Markel Starks	6-foot-2	1.94	0.00	1.94
88	Mikael Hopkins	6-foot-9	0.47	-0.03	0.49

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RnkLouisville (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

12	Gorgui Dieng	6-foot-10	2.44	-3.21	5.65
18	Kyle Kuric	6-foot-4	3.40	-1.24	4.64
28	Chris Smith	6-foot-2	3.36	-0.41	3.77
38	Russ Smith	6-foot-0	0.23	-2.67	2.90
52	Chane Behanan	6-foot-7	0.37	-1.67	2.04
71	Peyton Siva	5-foot-11	0.00	-1.45	1.45
87	Rakeem Buckles	6-foot-7	0.00	-0.52	0.52
98	Elisha Justice	5-foot-10	0.00	-0.27	0.27

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RnkNotre Dame (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

14	Jack Cooley	6-foot-9	3.60	-1.47	5.07
23	Jerian Grant	6-foot-5	4.16	-0.03	4.18
69	Eric Atkins	6-foot-1	1.53	0.00	1.53
79	Scott Martin	6-foot-8	0.00	-1.13	1.13
92	Joey Brooks	6-foot-6	0.45	0.00	0.45

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RnkPitt (Projected 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

20	Ashton Gibbs	6-foot-2	4.41	0.00	4.41
43	Nasir Robinson	6-foot-5	2.51	0.00	2.51
44	Lamar Patterson	6-foot-5	2.46	0.00	2.46
56	Talib Zanna	6-foot-9	1.97	0.00	1.97
57	Dante Taylor	6-foot-9	1.77	-0.18	1.95
66	Travon Woodall	5-foot-11	1.68	0.00	1.68
81	Khem Birch	6-foot-9	0.53	-0.50	1.03
89	J.J. Moore	6-foot-6	0.49	0.00	0.49

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RnkProvidence (Proj 5-13)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

21	Bryce Cotton	6-foot-1	4.36	0.00	4.36
72	Bilal Dixon	6-foot-9	0.77	-0.67	1.44
75	Vincent Council	6-foot-2	1.30	0.00	1.30
97	Ron Giplaye	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.31	0.31
99	Gerard Coleman	6-foot-4	0.21	0.00	0.21

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RnkRutgers (Proj 8-10)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

26	Dane Miller	6-foot-6	0.94	-2.93	3.87
59	Mike Poole	6-foot-5	0.05	-1.86	1.91
62	Myles Mack	5-foot-9	0.77	-1.07	1.83
63	Gilvydas Biruta	6-foot-8	0.50	-1.25	1.75
82	Jerome Seagears	6-foot-1	0.99	0.00	0.99
100	Austin Johnson	6-foot-8	0.06	0.00	0.06

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RnkSeton Hall (Proj 11-7)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

7	Fuquan Edwin	6-foot-6	2.83	-3.42	6.25
8	Jordan Theodore	6-foot-0	4.90	-0.98	5.88
10	Herb Pope	6-foot-8	2.60	-3.08	5.69
49	Patrik Auda	6-foot-9	1.81	-0.27	2.08

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RnkSt. John's (Proj 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

35	D'Angelo Harrison	6-foot-3	2.72	-0.52	3.25
70	Sir'Dominic Pointer	6-foot-6	0.00	-1.48	1.48
90	Amir Garrett	6-foot-6	0.00	-0.47	0.47

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RnkSyracuse (Proj 15-3)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

5	Dion Waiters	6-foot-4	3.74	-2.61	6.36
11	Kris Joseph	6-foot-7	4.03	-1.65	5.68
19	James Southerland	6-foot-8	2.89	-1.61	4.50
25	Brandon Triche	6-foot-4	3.32	-0.84	4.17
27	C.J. Fair	6-foot-8	2.36	-1.48	3.84
30	Scoop Jardine	6-foot-2	2.30	-1.31	3.61
32	Fab Melo	7-foot-0	1.24	-2.19	3.43
54	Baye Moussa Keita	6-foot-10	1.29	-0.70	1.98
64	Michael Carter-Williams	6-foot-5	0.63	-1.06	1.70
68	Rakeem Christmas	6-foot-9	0.67	-0.93	1.60

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RnkVillanova (Proj 7-11)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

15	Maalik Wayns	6-foot-2	4.92	0.00	4.92
33	Mouphtaou Yarou	6-foot-10	2.67	-0.75	3.43
37	Dominic Cheek	6-foot-6	3.06	0.00	3.06
77	James Bell	6-foot-6	1.22	0.00	1.22
96	Achraf Yacoubou	6-foot-4	0.33	0.00	0.33

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RnkWest Virginia (Proj 13-5)HtOffenseDefenseTotal[/tr]

1	Kevin Jones	6-foot-8	8.02	-2.20	10.21
39	Darryl Bryant	6-foot-2	2.85	0.00	2.85
47	Jabarie Hinds	5-foot-11	1.42	-0.84	2.26
65	Deniz Kilicli	6-foot-9	0.83	-0.86	1.69
78	Aaron Brown	6-foot-5	1.16	0.00	1.16

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/mu-gtown-syracuse-and-seton-hall-claim.html

Wonderful information ... in a world full of opinions, it is great to see three dimensional statistics supporting clear conclusions.

Your analysis also supports the fact that on a team of interchangeable players, where everyone contributes something, that Jae Crowder is neither interchangeable, nor replaceable. He is the one Warrior, above all, who seems to drive team wins by his will-power and strength.

As a post-script, at some future date, it will be interesting to read your conclusions on college players whose skills might be well suited to the NBA.

Thank you.

Does anyone find it interesting that Fab Melo is listed as 32nd best player in the Big East, yet it seems like all the sportscasters on ESPN say without him, Syracuse's spot at the top in the polls is in doubt?

Thanks both for reading, and I agree completely on the Fab Melo observation.  There is always a tough SHORT-TERM transition when you lose someone, but in the LONG-TERM Fab is not yet a dominant player.  Quite possibly will be by next year.

We can make comparison to Chris Otule going down.  As you can see, Chris has erased 0.86% of opponents points this season, which means he actually erased 2.46% of opponents points during the seven games he played and obviously 0% in the 13 games since he was injured.

Since these are adjusted by the opponents level of play, it's a pretty good guess that Chris would have about that 2.46% Total Value for the season if he had not been injured, which would make him the 45th best player in the conference.  Not quite as good as Fab, but a little better defender and almost as good.

If you looked at the first 7 MU games played with Otule MU played like a Top 10 team, and then in the first 7 games without him they played like an unranked team, so if you took Sagarin's Value Add approach of what did you do with or without him, you might conclude he was a National POY candidate.

In the 6 games since MU has still felt his loss and not gotten back up to the early season level, but they have had time to make adjustments to play without him and have played like a Top 25 team for 6 games in a row.

So Syracuse could legitimately really be hurt for a few games without Fab, but he is not having the kind of impact that can't be missed.  The reason I am still skeptical of Syracuse as a #1 contender is that 5 of the last 7 years they've rolled through half of January and then collapsed for several weeks:

2004 - 13-1 in mid-January, then 3-5 in next 8
2005 - 20-1 in mid-January, then 3-5
2006 - 15-2 in mid-January, then 5-9
2009 - 16-1 in mid-January, then 3-7
2011 - 18-0 in mid-January, then 2-6

How exactly does this work? Does the formula produce the top 100 players? Can you post the data for players who aren't on these lists? I'd love to see the numbers for Jabril Trawick and Greg Whittington both of whom are bigger parts of the rotation than Mikael Hopkins. It looks like the 100th best player's value is 0.06. I can't imagine those two guys add less than that. Their defense is at times game changing. Whittington has definitely won us games including the one against Marquette with his ability to lock down players.