Big East NCAA Teams Becoming Clearer
Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Steve Susina)
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/01/big-east-ncaa-teams-becoming-clearer.html
Conference record disparity is obvious, but I think Louisville has a better shot than Cincy right now. Cincy's non-con is atrocious, and as good as wins at GTown and UConn are, I'd guess they are offset in the committee's eyes by ghastly home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 19, 2012, 11:23:01 AM
Conference record disparity is obvious, but I think Louisville has a better shot than Cincy right now. Cincy's non-con is atrocious, and as good as wins at GTown and UConn are, I'd guess they are offset in the committee's eyes by ghastly home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's.
If Louisville can stop the bleeding I agree with you, but they are pretty ravaged by injury at the moment. On the other hand, Cincinnati has undeniably been a different team since the brawl, which I think the committee will look favorably upon. On top of that, their predicted record on Pomeroy is 12-6, 22-9 overall with a possible first round bye in the BET. Even with an 11-7 conference, 21-10 record overall, I think they're safely in with only one win in the BET, and still likely in without one.
Instead of saying that MU has won all its games against the bottom and lost its 2 games against the top you could view it as MU has won them all at home and lost them all on the road.
Saturday will be an interesting test.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 19, 2012, 11:23:01 AM
Conference record disparity is obvious, but I think Louisville has a better shot than Cincy right now. Cincy's non-con is atrocious, and as good as wins at GTown and UConn are, I'd guess they are offset in the committee's eyes by ghastly home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's.
Brew, I've read and appreciated your detailed and thoughtful analysis regarding the conference. I've found myself largely in agreement. That said, UConn is knocking on the door to the AP Top 25. I think they got 17 votes last week, comparable to SHU and West Virginia. This was before last night's big win. In next week's poll that number will certainly go up. At some point we'll have to include them in the field. No AP Top 25 would ever get left out. Agree?
Quote from: MuMark on January 19, 2012, 12:20:33 PM
Instead of saying that MU has won all its games against the bottom and lost its 2 games against the top you could view it as MU has won them all at home and lost them all on the road.
Saturday will be an interesting test.
I'm not questioning our ability to play on the road--we've proven we can against the top teams. Closing is obviously an issue, but we can compete with the best of them. Unless Providence gets hot from beyond the arc, we should leave RI with a double digit W.
Quote from: MuMark on January 19, 2012, 12:20:33 PM
Instead of saying that MU has won all its games against the bottom and lost its 2 games against the top you could view it as MU has won them all at home and lost them all on the road.
Saturday will be an interesting test.
Correct, but the home games are against 4 teams that combined have less conference wins than Syracuse. It is still to early to say how good this MU team is.
Kind of gets back to the old adage.
Bad teams lose
Good teams win when they get to play their style
Great teams win even when playing the other team's style
MU is between a good and great team that won't win matchups with another great team.
Quote from: jsglow on January 19, 2012, 12:28:19 PMBrew, I've read and appreciated your detailed and thoughtful analysis regarding the conference. I've found myself largely in agreement. That said, UConn is knocking on the door to the AP Top 25. I think they got 17 votes last week, comparable to SHU and West Virginia. This was before last night's big win. In next week's poll that number will certainly go up. At some point we'll have to include them in the field. No AP Top 25 would ever get left out. Agree?
That's an interesting question. I think it did happen once before, but I'm not sure when. I don't think rankings play any part in the selection. But if they have an 80 RPI and miserable SOS. They have 6 remaining sub-100 RPI opponents. Would winning those be enough to get in? Especially if 17 of their 21 wins are against sub-100 teams with a 2-8 record against tourney teams? All I'm saying is that Cincy could go 21-10 (11-7) and still need wins in NYC to get in.
The last ranked team to miss the tourney was #25 Utah State in 2004. UNLV also missed the tourney as #25 some time in the 1990s.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 19, 2012, 11:23:01 AM
Conference record disparity is obvious, but I think Louisville has a better shot than Cincy right now. Cincy's non-con is atrocious, and as good as wins at GTown and UConn are, I'd guess they are offset in the committee's eyes by ghastly home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's.
UL has wins over the 12th (St. Johns) and 14th (DePaul) place teams in the league, and lost to #3 (Georgetown), #4 (MU) #9 (Notre Dame) and #14 (Providence).
Cincy has beaten #3 (Georgetown), #7 (UConn), #9 (Notre Dame), #12 (Villanova) and #16 (Pitt). Their only loss was to #12 (St. Johns).
I don't see how UL could be favored over Cincy as a tournament team right now. They simply don't have a win that comes close to Cincy's wins over Georgetown or UConn.
Its not the conference season its the whole season.
RPI
Louisville 48
Cincy 87
SOS
Louisville 45
Cincy 174
Worst losses
Louisville ND 121 at home Providence 118 on the road
Cincy Presbyterian 267 St Johns 153 both at home
Both teams have 2 top 50 wins
Lots of season left but as of now Louisville would be likely in....Cincy would be very iffy if you go by how they committee has chosen teams in the past.
Quote from: MuMark on January 19, 2012, 03:36:03 PM
Its not the conference season its the whole season.
RPI
Louisville 48
Cincy 87
SOS
Louisville 45
Cincy 174
Worst losses
Louisville ND 121 at home Providence 118 on the road
Cincy Presbyterian 267 St Johns 153 both at home
Both teams have 2 top 50 wins
Lots of season left but as of now Louisville would be likely in....Cincy would be very iffy if you go by how they committee has chosen teams in the past.
I liked your post until the very end. If the teams were selected today, Cincy would most definitely be in the field. In fact, they would probably have a decent seed. If you haven't noticed, there has been a ton of disparity/mediocrity in college basketball both this year, and in the past several. Not to mention, the Selection Committee definitely rewards teams that are very hot. See UCONN with a 3 seed and 9-9 conference record (they also went undefeated in non-con, however) just last year.
Cincy is 5-1 in Big East play. They could go 10-8 (5-7) to close out league play and be in the field. In addition, their SOS and RPI will increase significantly due to the conference they compete in. SOS and RPI are still not great numbers at this point in the season.
I think if bids went out today Cincy would be in. The thing about college basketball is that teams go into funks. Last year MU beat Syracuse when Syracuse had a three game losing streak. MU hit one this year and seems to be coming out of it. Louisville is in one, whether they come out of it remains to be seen. Badgers were in one. Indiana is in one right now with 3 straight losses. I think Villanova is coming out of theirs.
Of course Cincy would be in... They're ranked higher then us in the latest power rankings.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/powerrankings
No team with an RPI as high as Cincy's has ever made it as an at large......So no they wouldn't be in unless the SC breaks new ground.
Until Marquette gets their bid I don't think anything is clear. Marquette has to win a number more games. The article to me seems to me about the guy who is bragging before the battle versus one who can brag after the battle. Still way to much basketball season left.
Quote from: MuMark on January 19, 2012, 10:15:45 PM
No team with an RPI as high as Cincy's has ever made it as an at large......So no they wouldn't be in unless the SC breaks new ground.
My god they're 11-1 in there last 12 games... with wins vs #3 (Georgetown), #7 (UConn), #9 (Notre Dame), #12 (Villanova) and #16 (Pitt). Their only loss was to #12 (St. Johns). They are 5-1 in big east play its pretty obvious they are on the path to the NCAA tournament. Its gonna be a tough game for us. Especially with the beast Yancey Gates back.