MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: brewcity77 on January 17, 2012, 08:52:37 PM
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I've been thinking about this after the UL game, especially as it seems the Cardinals are starting to be written off. Last year, we got in with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 30. Here are the categories:
The Locks
- Syracuse: #1 in the RPI, #1 in both polls, #2 SOS. Lock them in.
- Georgetown: Even if they Hoyas tank, they should win 10 Big East games. That'd give them a 24 RPI and 18 SOS. They're in.
- Connecticut: UConn has yet to face the meat of their schedule, and losses to UCF and Rutgers aren't very good, but even if they go 9-9 in conference they project as #21 in RPI and #2 SOS. Barring total collapse, they'll be in.
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Should Be In
- Marquette: The Warriors are favored in 10/12 games and even if they only go 10-8 in conference are projected as a top-30 RPI and SOS. That'd be one heck of a snub in the 68-team era.
- Seton Hall: The USF loss sucked, but the Pirates already have 4 top-50 wins. It's hard not to see them getting to at least 20 wins, and even with a 9-9 Big East record, that would give them a top-40 RPI and top-30 SOS. Honestly, 22 or 23 wins are more likely.
- West Virginia: Many wrote off the 'Neers after losing to Kent State, but they have no bad losses (including the Flashes) and are 6-5 against the RPI top-100. Their only game from here on out when they'll be an underdog is at the Carrier Dome.
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On The Bubble
- Louisville: Critics are banging on the 'Ville and injuries could be their undoing (Rakeem Buckles the latest). Still, they had an excellent non-con schedule, boast 5 top-100 wins, and only 2 heavy RPI drags. Their next 7 games will be critical. If they go 4-3, they will be in good position to get to 9-9 in the Big East. While most will say that isn't good enough, Louisville would have the #36 RPI and #18 SOS. Honestly, if they go 8-10, they could still make the Dance. Their #45 RPI and #18 SOS would both be better than what got MU in last year, and a 20-11 record isn't nearly as bad as some that have made the cut when there were only 65 teams invited.
- Cincinnati: Despite winning 9/10 since the fight with Xavier, the Bearcats played a pathetic non-con. 11-7 in the Big East is realistic, but will it offset bad home losses to Presbyterian and St. John's? They only had 1 top-100 non-con win, against #74 Oklahoma. Even with an 11-7 Big East mark, Cincy would project to #74 RPI with the #99 SOS. It's hard to imagine an 11-7 or 12-6 Big East team being snubbed, but if their only top-50 wins are Louisville and Georgetown, that's a possibility.
- Rutgers: Usually 5 non-conference losses sinks a team, but none of RU's losses are to any teams below 120 in the RPI. Their wins over Florida and UConn were major feathers in the cap. If they can win 5/6 at home (marking Syracuse as a loss) and steal a couple on the road (Providence and Notre Dame are promising) they could get to 10-8 in the Big East and 18-13 overall. 5-8 against the top-100 isn't horrible, especially with 3 top-20 wins (if they beat SHU at home). That would also give them the #84 RPI and #51 SOS, so they'd probably still need to pull off 2 wins, including one more quality win, in the Big East tournament, but it's not unthinkable.
- South Florida: Like Rutgers, hard to see a 5-loss non-con team making it. But the Bulls have been good at home, with wins over Cleveland State and Seton Hall, and a narrow loss to UConn. If they can hold serve at home and steal two roadies out of DePaul, Providence, or Pitt, they will be 11-7 in the Big East. Would a 18-13 record be good enough? Probably not without a Big East Tourney win or two, but they'd be looking at a 66 RPI and 37 SOS, around what got Marquette in a year ago.
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It's Not (Totally) Impossible
- Pittsburgh: Initially I wanted to put them in the bubble club, but they have a long way to go. Pitt probably needs to go 8-4 the rest of the way to get on the bubble, and that might not even be enough. They do have 7 home games, so if they can turn Petersen back into a fortress, maybe they can get back in the mix. Win out at home, steal a road game at USF or Louisville (or better both) and they might get that "hot team" bump come Selection Sunday. An 8-10 league record would give them #63 RPI and #49 SOS.
- Notre Dame: Zero non-con wins against the RPI top-175 means ND would probably need to go 10-8 in the league just to be on the bubble. They still have 4 road games against top-20 RPI teams, and 3 more at home. On the plus side, the NIT still counts as postseason play.
- Villanova: The Wildcats had a solid non-con, but they lost almost every worthwhile game they scheduled, and took a bad loss to Santa Clara to boot. They probably would need to win every game at home (tall order beating UConn and MU when they got spanked there by USF), and take roadies from USF, Rutgers, and St. John's. Even that would only get their RPI to #59, so another win or two might be needed in the Big East Tournament. Highly unlikely, but not a complete impossibility.
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No Chance In Hell
- DePaul: Their non-con was way too weak, giving them only 3 top-100 opponents and zero top-100 wins. They could win 4-6 Big East games, but that won't be enough. Still, Oliver Purnell has the arrow pointed up.
- St. John's: The Red Storm were one of the feel-good stories of last year, but having a losing record already and being favored in only 1 of their remaining 14 games must feel pretty bad.
- Providence: If the Friars go 10-2, they will still only have a 60 RPI and 125 SOS. But they won't go anywhere near 10-2.
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My vote is 8 bids. I think Louisville will get it together enough to win 9 league games, though 8-10 honestly should be enough for them with their RPI, SOS, and the 68-team field. Not sure who else gets in, but I think one of Cincy, Rutgers, or USF will slip in the back door.
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I'm really curious, people saying 5, who do you think gets left out? If Marquette goes 7-11 in the Big East, they still have a better RPI (58) and SOS (18) than last year. Seton Hall at 7-11 would have a better profile than last year's Marquette team too (59 RPI, 30 SOS0. WVU would have the same RPI (64) as 2010-11 Marquette at 7-11, but a much better SOS (11).
And if one of these teams collapsed, wouldn't that almost automatically mean that a Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, or USF was capitalizing on those losses to snag a bid, getting the league back up to 6?
I know some people will just take the lowest option for the sake of it, I expect 1 or 2 people to say that, but I didn't expect 10% of respondents at this point to be saying that. Is it just trolling or does someone expect a major collapse or two?
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Regarding those who think the Big East only gets 5, you have to look at the big picture. The Pac12 is a 1-2 bid league this year. The ACC has strength at the top, but no depth. When you start looking at at large bids, who are the best 35 ish teams going to be?
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I voted for 8, but I think the seeds will take a hit. Syracuse will be a 1 or 2 at the worse and then I think the next seed is a four. The 8th team will be in the play in game.
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I said 8. My logic is that Cincy or Rutgers gets the last bid. While Cincy's RPI and non-con remain weak, they'll have simply too many wins overall to ignore I think Louisville rights the ship when some guys get healthy and they play pretty strong down the stretch. Barring major injury, I agree that the top 6 look very solid. If you made me guess, I'll peg MU as a #5 seed giving us a realistic shot at a Sweet 16 run.
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Basketball Prospectus Tuesday Truths: http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2003
Has MU 5th, behind Syracuse, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Cincy. Difference between #3 Seton Hall and #7 Georgetown is .04 points per possession.
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I think Cincy will have a tough time getting in. We'll see where they stack up when they start their gauntlet tonight @UConn, @WVU, vs Cuse. With their SoS, I wouldn't want to be sitting at 10-8 on selection Sunday.
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I think Cincy will have a tough time getting in. We'll see where they stack up when they start their gauntlet tonight @UConn, @WVU, vs Cuse. With their SoS, I wouldn't want to be sitting at 10-8 on selection Sunday.
Yes, Cincy's computers numbers are bad, but I think they are definitely a top-50 team, maybe even top 35. Perhaps, I've just seen the games they have played well in, but I really like their team. I think they end up with 11 or 12 Big East wins and will be considered a lock by Selection Sunday. Although, I do agree, this 3-game stretch will be very difficult. They need to win at least one.
Great post, Brew. I think the Big East will be a 8 bid league. One team that I still feel has a chance is ND. They don't have any bad losses and I have a feeling that they will beat Syracuse on Saturday.
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I have a feeling that they will beat Syracuse on Saturday.
Syracuse has one weakness, and that's the defensive glass as a function of their 2-3 zone. Unfortunately, ND is a terrible rebounding team. Not to mention they're short and not overly athletic. Even though it's at the Joyce, 'Cuse will win this by 10+. UConn and Georgetown are the only teams I could see knocking the Orange off the rest of the way. Not that upsets don't happen, but Syracuse is loaded.
ND has to get 11 wins in conference to even have a shot at the tournament, and I just don't see that happening. They're simply not very good this year.
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ND has almost no chance. 7 of their 11 wins are against sub 200 RPI teams.
Ditto for Rutgers. 6 of their 11 wins outside the top 200 and 2 losses in the 100-200 range.
7 or 8 BE teams will make it.
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All that needs to happen is Cuse gettiing upset in the Confernce tourney and one of the bottom feeders getting hot to get the automatic bid. Not saying it's going to happen just saying it could; which could bump one of the better teams out of the NCAAs. I can remember Cuse getting screwed a few years back. The Beast tourney might upset the apple cart with the league the way it is.
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Voted 7, but could be 8. I am always wary of the smaller conf. tournament week bid thieves that could take that last bid away.
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Syracuse has one weakness, and that's the defensive glass as a function of their 2-3 zone. Unfortunately, ND is a terrible rebounding team. Not to mention they're short and not overly athletic. Even though it's at the Joyce, 'Cuse will win this by 10+. UConn and Georgetown are the only teams I could see knocking the Orange off the rest of the way. Not that upsets don't happen, but Syracuse is loaded.
This game at ND is the toughest road game they been in all year. So far, Syracuse's road games have been DePaul, 'Nova, Providence and NC State. Not exactly the toughest venues, especially with 'Nova struggling this year.
Plus, ND has the ability to hit the 3. Both Grant and Atkins are good outside shooters and Dragicevich can be an outside threat. Also, I can see this as a letdown game for Syracuse. They made a big deal of getting to 20-0 (first 'Cuse team to do so) and finally being able to beat Pitt.
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ND has almost no chance. 7 of their 11 wins are against sub 200 RPI teams.
Ditto for Rutgers. 6 of their 11 wins outside the top 200 and 2 losses in the 100-200 range.
7 or 8 BE teams will make it.
I agree that ND has almost no chance. That's why there is the category they're in. Pitt and 'Nova also have almost no chance. It would take a small miracle for any of them to get in.
Rutgers is a long-shot, but two top-25 wins already and those two bad losses are in the upper end of the bad-loss spectrum (much like our loss to Seton Hall last year). They have four very winnable home games (DePaul, Cincy, 'Nova, SJU) and if they can split their other eight they have a shot. Looking at them and Cincy, I think either of them would need to go 11-7 or 12-6 to get in, but I have a hard time calling Cincy a bubble team and not including Rutgers in the same category.
Personally, I don't think Rutgers or USF will get in, but at this point they are in better position than Pitt, ND, or 'Nova.
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For now I think there are 8 bids for sure. Earlier Cincinnatti was a bubble team for me but I think they have what it takes to make the tournament as they have done some damage so far in the Conference. I believe Notre Dame and Providence have an outside chance of making the tournament as they have had some competitve games and are solid home teams. In order to have a chance to make the NCAA tournament, ND and Providence will have to go 9-9 or even 10-8. Seeding wise, I believe Syracuse is looking at a 1 seed and after that I believe the conference will have a variety of 4, 5, 6, and 8 seeds. Although the conference may be down this season, some of these teams such as Marquette have a great chance to make some noise once March Madness rolls around.
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my apologies I meant to say USF instead of Providence.
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I was responding to this guy and the other guy who said he thinks ND has a shot.
Hey anybody has a shot if they go on a tear but realistically it's not going to happen.
I said 8. My logic is that Cincy or Rutgers gets the last bid. While Cincy's RPI and non-con remain weak, they'll have simply too many wins overall to ignore I think Louisville rights the ship when some guys get healthy and they play pretty strong down the stretch. Barring major injury, I agree that the top 6 look very solid. If you made me guess, I'll peg MU as a #5 seed giving us a realistic shot at a Sweet 16 run.
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You can take Cincy off the bubble with wins at UCONN and at GTOWN.
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You can take Cincy off the bubble with wins at UCONN and at GTOWN.
Losses at home against Presbyterian and St. John's offset those two wins. Their non-con was pathetic, and their next best win was over a mediocre Oklahoma team. They've still got work to do to solidify themselves as their RPI and SOS are both projected to be sub-90 right now. I think they need to win 2 of their next 3 before they get into the "should be in" category.
I could honestly see them going 11-7 in the league and still be holding their breath on Selection Sunday.