getting absolutly piss pounded at home to South Dakota State. Nice.
We don't need Washington to help us out. We're no longer a bubble team in any way, shape or form. This team is going to win more than enough games this season. What Washington does will be irrelevant. It will amount to a rounding error in the RPI calculation and that's about it.
I havnt at anytime this season or off season been worried about us being a bubble team. I want a 2 or 3 seed to set up a huge run.
tak care of business in the BE and our seed will be not be determined by the pre conference schedule.
Exactly. Can't spend too much time worrying about SOS so early.
The Huskies really piss me off. In 2010 they completely underperformed all season long and sneak in as an eleven seed when they should have been a 7-8 seed team according to their talent level. We play them and they beat us on a last second shot.
Now we beat them this year on a netural court and it is clear they are a very talented team. Now they will spend the rest of the season undermining that win for us. I am sure they will sneak into the tourney again as an eleven seed and of course play completely better than their matched sixth seed.
Man that is irritating. >:(
Quote from: Jamailman on December 18, 2011, 03:41:12 PM
We don't need Washington to help us out. We're no longer a bubble team in any way, shape or form. This team is going to win more than enough games this season. What Washington does will be irrelevant. It will amount to a rounding error in the RPI calculation and that's about it.
+1
Quote from: Andrew Siciliano's Ear on December 18, 2011, 04:37:58 PM
+1
Idk what you are +1 that for. Have you seen Lunardi's bracket? We are a 2 seed because of our RPI. We jumped teams ahead of us in polls because of that. Our RPI is so good because we are undefeated. If we start losing a couple games our RPI is going to drop big.
Quote from: HaywardsHeroes32 on December 18, 2011, 04:43:12 PM
Idk what you are +1 that for. Have you seen Lunardi's bracket? We are a 2 seed because of our RPI. We jumped teams ahead of us in polls because of that. Our RPI is so good because we are undefeated. If we start losing a couple games our RPI is going to drop big.
i don't know if I'd say big time. Right now RPI forecasts we will finish virtually tied with Syracuse for the No. 1 RPI by the end of the year. However, if we lose 6 games by the end of the regular season, we should still be a No. 2 seed based on an RPI around 7th. If we lose 9 games, we'd still finish around 20th in RPI
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
31-0 1.0 0.78%
30-1 1.1 5.20%
29-2 1.4 13.47%
28-3 2.0 22.07%
27-4 3.1 24.22%
26-5 4.8 17.47%
25-6 7.2 10.12%
24-7 10.3 4.94%
23-8 14.4 1.31%
22-9 20.3 0.33%
21-10 28.1 0.08%
But yes, we should root for everyone we've played. Mississippi and Vandy losing yesterday wasn't good either, and with three SEC opponents this year, we want the SEC to do well overall because of the opponent's opponent's records.
Another item on RPI forecast shows how much weight every other team has on our RPI. Washington is actually not that big a deal because we have so little overlaps except for playing them. Overall 26% of our RPI is determined by our record, while more than 13% is determined by a combination of Cincy, Nova, Gtown and Norfolk State, so those are the teams we really need to root for.
Basically if teams #2 through #11 were all to win on the same day that Marquette lost, we would actually do better than if Marquette won but teams #2 through #11 all lost.
1. Marquette 26.06
2. Cincinnati 3.73
3. Villanova 3.73
4. Georgetown 3.7
5. Norfolk St. 3.23
6. St. John's 2.2
7. DePaul 2.2
8. Providence 2.18
9. Rutgers 2.17
10. Louisville 2.17
11. South Florida 2.17
12. Notre Dame 2.14
13. Pittsburgh 2.14
14. Seton Hall 2.14
15. Syracuse 2.14
16. Connecticut 2.14
17. West Virginia 2.14
18. Wisconsin Milwaukee 1.73
19. Mississippi 1.72
20. Louisiana St. 1.72
21. Wisconsin Green Bay 1.7
22. Vanderbilt 1.69
23. Wisconsin 1.67
24. Jacksonville 1.64
25. Winthrop 1.64
26. Mount St. Mary's 1.61
27. Northern Colorado 1.61
28. Washington 1.61
29. Alabama 0.22 (even though we don't play these two, our three SEC games give them some impact)
30. Georgia 0.21
Really glad we dodged that Bullet against Norfolk State.
They just got destroyed by Illinois state.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=313522287
Quote from: MuMark on December 18, 2011, 06:09:06 PM
Really glad we dodged that Bullet against Norfolk State.
They just got destroyed by Illinois state.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=313522287
They were also destroyed by us in the first game as well!
All these glorious RPI predictions of going 27-4 are not based on us beating up on NCU, Norfolk or Jacksonville, etc.
We've played a grand total of *three* NCAA quality teams, RPI UW-12, Miss-51, and Washington at 66. Washington being a less than stellar team should be a factor in how you predict our future performance.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on December 18, 2011, 07:32:58 PM
All these glorious RPI predictions of going 27-4 are not based on us beating up on NCU, Norfolk or Jacksonville, etc.
We've played a grand total of *three* NCAA quality teams, RPI UW-12, Miss-51, and Washington at 66. Washington being a less than stellar team should be a factor in how you predict our future performance.
This site has a good breakdown of expected RPI based on record.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html)
What should be done? Re-schedule mid-season. We were supposed to face two high-major teams at the Paradise Jam. We got one. Thankfully, we didn't lose that trap game in the championship game. We schedule a high major, a tourney team for a neutral court game. There is nothing to be done about the fact that they stink against anybody else. We're playing a high major tomorrow at their place. Vandy isn't playing up to expectations right now. Not our fault. Pre-season, this looked like one of the better OOC schedules we have had in years. It hasn't necessarily worked that way. At least we don't yet have a bad loss to regret. To paraphrase that great philosopher, Donald Rumsfeld, You play the games you've got, not the games you wish you had.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on December 18, 2011, 07:32:58 PM
All these glorious RPI predictions of going 27-4 are not based on us beating up on NCU, Norfolk or Jacksonville, etc.
We've played a grand total of *three* NCAA quality teams, RPI UW-12, Miss-51, and Washington at 66. Washington being a less than stellar team should be a factor in how you predict our future performance.
Yes, but, the margins of wins have proven to be as accurate a predictor against bad, average and great teams. This is like two years ago when many said all we had done was had moral victories with close losses to great teams. Yes, but a narrow loss against a great team (particularly on the road) or 20 or 30 point wins against average teams indicate you have a very good chance to have a very good record. So far our early results have given a pretty good predictor of solid records, and this year they are pointing to a much tougher record.
Remember that MU has also had the most impressive win of any team this season in the win at Wisconsin. Wisconsin lost by 3 at UNC, indicating they would have probably won by about 5 if UNC had come to Madison. The results so far indicate that MU has the ability to go 27-4 - not that they will, but that for the first time since the 70s that is even possible. But the other point is that an 8-loss season will likely give us an RPI of 14 etc.
It's all probabilities, and every game gives a little more evidence of exactly how good a team is, so we could be predicted to lose 10 or 11 if we lose to LSU and Vandy, but right now there is a very good chance we lose fewer than 10 games at worse, and that would get us a very good seed.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on December 18, 2011, 07:58:29 PM
Yes, but, the margins of wins have proven to be as accurate a predictor against bad, average and great teams.
I'm legitimately curious .. where has that been proven? That crushing teams whose RPI is +100, +200, +300 spots from you is a predictor of anything?
You don't need to go far into MU's pre-season history to find about a zillion examples of MU pummeling Southwest Nebraska Typewriter tech, yet those years we weren't predicted to only lose 3-4 games.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on December 18, 2011, 07:58:29 PM
Yes, but, the margins of wins have proven to be as accurate a predictor against bad, average and great teams. This is like two years ago when many said all we had done was had moral victories with close losses to great teams. Yes, but a narrow loss against a great team (particularly on the road) or 20 or 30 point wins against average teams indicate you have a very good chance to have a very good record. So far our early results have given a pretty good predictor of solid records, and this year they are pointing to a much tougher record.
Remember that MU has also had the most impressive win of any team this season in the win at Wisconsin. Wisconsin lost by 3 at UNC, indicating they would have probably won by about 5 if UNC had come to Madison. The results so far indicate that MU has the ability to. go 27-4 - not that they will, but that for the first time since the 70s that is even possible.
But the other point is that an 8-loss season will likely give us an RPI of 14 etc.
Bama,
Thanks for the breakdown. I know that rip is king. I miss the days when you could enjoy ND getting the piss beat out of them by IU, and not worry about how it affects our rpi.
Go Warriors!!!!!
It's all probabilities, and every game gives a little more evidence of exactly how good a team is, so we could be predicted to lose 10 or 11 if we lose to LSU and Vandy, but right now there is a very good chance we lose fewer than 10 games at worse, and that would get us a very good seed.
The only thing good about the Huskies losing to SDSU is that my two alma maters are 2-0 against them.