Marquette moved up to #8 in the country on kenpom.com after they destroyed Mississippi, but what impressed me most about checking their rating is that for the first time I can remember, Marquette is listed as having a chance to go undefeated on the season. Granted, it's a 0.01% chance, but I've never seen Marquette have even that much on Pomeroy before. Right now, the best undefeated percentage is #1 Kentucky, who has a 5.6% chance.
Currently our final record is set at 24-7 (13-5), though if you go game-by-game he has us at 28-3 (16-2) with our only losses on the road at #3 Wisconsin, #4 Syracuse, and #12 UConn. In terms of category rankings, our offense is ranked #6 in the country and our defense is an impressive #22.
In other rankings, I'm guessing Marquette will at worst climb to #17 AP/#16 Coaches in the respective polls when they are released today. This team is looking pretty darn good, and it's nice to see us getting some respect early in the season. If we can stay unbeaten and then beat Wisconsin, Marquette's first top-ten ranking since 2008-09 is a possibility.
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 21, 2011, 06:03:33 AM
In other rankings, I'm guessing Marquette will at worst climb to #17 AP/#16 Coaches in the respective polls when they are released today.
We'll see, remember, according to Goodman, we don't
have to be ranked right now.
In all seriousness, we've looked very, very impressive. I like where this is headed.
Buzz, in the post game show, said that this team has a high ceiling at both ends of the floor. Hopefully they keep improving through March into April.
I believe we move at least from 21 to 16 in espn just based on teams that lost in front of us, but perhaps even higher based how impressive the wins have been. We probably get good ballots from sec writers and coaches.
We shall see. Ken's stats are susceptible to early season swings, especially with the high margins we've been winning by. That'll settle down once we start playing the Top 100 and Top 50's regularly.
We need to fix Offensive Rebounds. I've been watching the stats, and that's the only thing we've done worse than our opponent in every single game. Ole Miss converted 26 OREB's to 21 points where-as we converted 10 OREB's to 7 points. That won't fly in BE games when the margins aren't there anymore.
16 is definitely within reach.
Keith
I'm all about being ranked early in the season, but to be honest, Goodman is right. We don't HAVE to be ranked now, though it's awesome how we've been playing lately. What matters the most to me is how we play in March and April.
Besides, the season's real test begins on December 3rd. We kick the snot out of Wisconsin, I'm downing my kool-aid.
Quote from: downtown85 on November 21, 2011, 06:12:24 AM
Buzz, in the post game show, said that this team has a high ceiling at both ends of the floor. Hopefully they keep improving through March into April.
Is he implying that we haven't seen the ceiling offensively?
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 21, 2011, 07:27:24 AM
Is he implying that we haven't seen the ceiling offensively?
He might be right. MU's offensive efficiency is 115.7 through four games, which is fractionally higher than last year's season-long figure of 114.1. The 114.1 included all of Big East play plus the post-season, of course. MU can score, Buzz makes sure of it.
The difference so far is the team's eFG% defense which is greatly improved year to year (41.2 now vs 49.9 last season, which stunk), though the small sample size is not enough to declare 'victory' so to speak. That said, MU has strung together 60 solid minutes of defense in the last two outings against two pretty good teams.
Defense is the difference so far. Let's hope it continues as the competition improves.
Quote from: brewcity77 on November 21, 2011, 06:03:33 AM
Marquette is listed as having a chance to go undefeated on the season. Granted, it's a 0.01% chance, but I've never seen Marquette have even that much on Pomeroy before.
(http://cbsknci.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/lloyd-christmas.jpg?w=385&h=240)
Quote from: krocheck on November 21, 2011, 07:14:02 AM
Ole Miss converted 26 OREB's to 21 points where-as we converted 10 OREB's to 7 points. That won't fly in BE games when the margins aren't there anymore.
I don't disagree with your overall point, but don't overlook the fact that they had 53 opportunities to get an offensive board, while we had 23. And while I couldn't watch the game, I would think the 20 missed 3's led to a decent number of OR's since long shots tend to make long rebounds.
Quote from: PVMagic on November 21, 2011, 06:06:56 AM
We'll see, remember, according to Goodman, we don't have to be ranked right now.
In all seriousness, we've looked very, very impressive. I like where this is headed.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/top25
Looks like Goodman finally gave in. #23:
"Marquette is the one team the AP has been ranking that we have not, and Marquette fans with Twitter accounts haven't been shy about letting us know. Perhaps now they'll relax a little bit. Perhaps."
Nope, we want to be higher! And see evidence that Goodman/Parrish actually know something about our team besides that our fans are annoyed by them so far.
Quote from: krocheck on November 21, 2011, 07:14:02 AM
We need to fix Offensive Rebounds. I've been watching the stats, and that's the only thing we've done worse than our opponent in every single game. Ole Miss converted 26 OREB's to 21 points where-as we converted 10 OREB's to 7 points. That won't fly in BE games when the margins aren't there anymore.
As I mentioned elsewhere, Ole Miss won the offensive rebounding battle against us and still only scored 0.82 ppp for the game. They got almost half of all rebounds on the offensive end in the 1H and only got 0.67 ppp.
Defensive eFG% is where it's at.
Also, aren't we up to #6 on pomeroy now?
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 21, 2011, 07:27:24 AM
Is he implying that we haven't seen the ceiling offensively?
In Buzz's first two seasons, MU was #11 and #7 at protecting the ball. We're only #45 right now. There's plenty of opportunity to improve in that category, and history suggests we will.
Quote from: Henry Sugar on November 21, 2011, 09:48:02 AM
As I mentioned elsewhere, Ole Miss won the offensive rebounding battle against us and still only scored 0.82 ppp for the game. They got almost half of all rebounds on the offensive end in the 1H and only got 0.67 ppp.
Defensive eFG% is where it's at.
Also, aren't we up to #6 on pomeroy now?
#8 my good man. Offense is #6.
We're #7 overall in Sagarin, #5 in his predictor. Early returns have looked quite good. As long as we don't face a team that rains threes and protects the ball we should be fine. Oh wait - Wisconsin is #5 in the nation in protecting the ball and #11 in 3P% - I don't forsee a win there but that's okay, it's a horrendous matchup for us. Every college team has a weakness, and their strength just so happens to be our achilles heel.
Can somebody explain the Xaivier love being ranked 11th?
Quote from: BCHoopster on November 21, 2011, 10:01:18 AM
Can somebody explain the Xaivier love being ranked 11th?
Obviously based on pre-season hype as Xavier does have a very good returning team with Relford returning along with some solid inside help coming in. Wait 3 weeks for judgment on this though as X's upcoming 5 games are Georgia, @ Vanderbilt, Purdue, @ Butler and Cincinnati.
Quote from: BCHoopster on November 21, 2011, 10:01:18 AM
Can somebody explain the Xaivier love being ranked 11th?
Tu Holloway's magic tears of hype.
Quote from: Jamailman on November 21, 2011, 09:59:01 AM
#8 my good man. Offense is #6.
dammit... I was reading the numbers wrong.
I dont want to get to over excited but when we were up 40-12 I was thinking this is a top ten team. I hope I'm right. The real test will be in the Kohl Center, no doubt. I hope we can escape from there with a victory and bust into the top ten.
Not that we shouldn't take it one game at a time...
Henry, I know we have more TO's than we did a couple of years ago. Is that tempo related? Are there correlations relating to high-tempo teams vs lower tempo? Are we playing at higher tempo than we have in other seasons under Buzz? Or are we having more TO's per possession than in year's past?
Quote from: Brewtown Andy on November 21, 2011, 07:27:24 AM
Is he implying that we haven't seen the ceiling offensively?
yes, I believe he was. He mentioned that they spend like 85% of practice time on defense and only have like 3 or 4 plays they have practiced on offense. He specifically mentioned that they were working on the primary and secondary break. I think Buzz learned a hard leasson or two from Ole' Roy in the sweet 16 game.
Way to go defensively, MU!
Ole Miss was stuck at 10 points for 3:08, 12 points for 3:20, 29 points for 2:37, and 48 points for 2:44!!!
Lots of TURKEYS for Thanskgiving!
Get more tonight!!!
Quote from: chren21 on November 21, 2011, 10:47:03 AM
I dont want to get to over excited but when we were up 40-12 I was thinking this is a top ten team. I hope I'm right. The real test will be in the Kohl Center, no doubt. I hope we can escape from there with a victory and bust into the top ten.
Not that we shouldn't take it one game at a time...
Using that thinking, I bet St. Louis thought they were a top 25 team they way they manhandling UW.
Very early in the season...it's "JUST" Ole Miss...it's just one game...but it's still very impressive for so early in the season.
CROSSING FINGERS...NO INJURIES!!!
Quote from: tower912 on November 21, 2011, 11:07:46 AM
Henry, I know we have more TO's than we did a couple of years ago. Is that tempo related? Are there correlations relating to high-tempo teams vs lower tempo? Are we playing at higher tempo than we have in other seasons under Buzz? Or are we having more TO's per possession than in year's past?
For MU, there is a small correlation between our tempo and the tempo rate. It's not 95% confident, but it's higher than 90%. In other words, when we play faster, not only are there more overall turnovers, but the turnovers happen at a greater frequency. Again... small correlation.
We're playing at a higher tempo than the last three years so far. We're playing at around 70+ possessions per game. The last three years we were at 67, 64, 68. Pretty early to say that'll stick all year.
As for overall turnover rate, we are protecting the ball better than last year. Last year was a poor year for a Buzz team at #60.
Quote from: Henry Sugar on November 21, 2011, 11:32:49 AM
For MU, there is a small correlation between our tempo and the tempo rate. It's not 95% confident, but it's higher than 90%. In other words, when we play faster, not only are there more overall turnovers, but the turnovers happen at a greater frequency. Again... small correlation.
We're playing at a higher tempo than the last three years so far. We're playing at around 70+ possessions per game. The last three years we were at 67, 64, 68. Pretty early to say that'll stick all year.
As for overall turnover rate, we are protecting the ball better than last year. Last year was a poor year for a Buzz team at #60.
The stats support the "eye test". Vander, DJO and Junior are all pushing the ball and the tempo, sometimes it's detrimental... but I like the aggressive play.
Dare I say that Vander has been "McNeal-esque". He'll make a great steal and then push the ball 1v2 or 2v3. I know that drives some fans crazy, but in these early games I love it. I think that it can be dialed back for a little more controlled chaos as the season goes on.
Very optimistic, especially if Mayo can keep it up (a pleasant surprise in my mind).
Just looking at the Teams in the Top 10, the only teams that I think are far and away better then us are NC and Kentucky. Ohio State, Uconn, Duke, Cuse, Are all good teams and probably better on paper then us, But Uconn and Cuse lost just as much as we did last year and OSU and Duke both lost 3 starter's.
Quote from: 2002MUalum on November 21, 2011, 11:40:33 AM
The stats support the "eye test". Vander, DJO and Junior are all pushing the ball and the tempo, sometimes it's detrimental... but I like the aggressive play.
Dare I say that Vander has been "McNeal-esque". He'll make a great steal and then push the ball 1v2 or 2v3. I know that drives some fans crazy, but in these early games I love it. I think that it can be dialed back for a little more controlled chaos as the season goes on.
Very optimistic, especially if Mayo can keep it up (a pleasant surprise in my mind).
1. The more experience a team has with pushing the tempo, the better they get at it, so I'm with you--I like the aggressive play. I also think that it helps with recruiting, especially when you have to use your whole bench.
2. I also have to agree with Mayo being a pleasant surprise, and Derrick Wilson , too. We haven't been had freshmen that ready to go in a while.
Marquette moved up to #6 on kenpom after beating Bucky yesterday. The only teams still ranked ahead of MU are Ohio State, Kentucky, Wisconsin (somehow still at 3), Syracuse, and North Carolina.
kenpom also released player ratings for the first time yesterday. Among players with 20% of possessions used, DJO and Crowder are both among the top ten of offensive rating in the nation. DJO is at #6 and Crowder is at #8.
Other ratings...RealTimeRPI has us #3, though projects our RPI to finish at #6. The Nolan Power Index has us rated at #1. Sagarin hasn't been updated today, but he had us at #3 before the Wisconsin game.