As we sit with one scholarship left for the 2012 class, I'm looking at the guys out there and dreaming over which player might end up pulling on the best-looking uniform in college basketball. Kris Dunn, Shaquille Cleare, Zach Auguste, Ray Lee, Devin Thomas...and at the same time, I'm wondering if it has to be just one. In a dream scenario, I'd love to see us add both Dunn and Cleare. Two likely top-25 RSCI guys at the two most important positions on the court to go along with all the switchables we have seems like a formula for the Final Four. But to do that, we'd have to oversign.
In 2009, Liam McMorrow and Patrick Hazel left vacant scholarships. In 2010 it was Jeronne Maymon and Yous Mbao. Then in 2011, Reggie Smith and Erik Williams followed suit. While I am very happy with our team right now and am not anticipating anyone leaving, the reality of college basketball is that it happens. The departures of Smith and Williams leave us going into the 2011-12 season with only 11 active players and only 12 practice bodies (including Jake Thomas).
While many frown upon oversigning, I'm starting to see the benefit. Of our eleven players next year, five are top-100 RSCI guys. Three more are upperclassmen that are expected to start. The remaining three are Gardner, who is expected to get heavy minutes, and Mayo and Wilson, both high-three-star freshmen that most likely won't be called upon for major minutes once the Big East season starts. There's only 200 minutes per game to go around, and I'd guess that around 140 of those will go to the starting five (DJO, Crowder, Otule, Cadougan, Wilson). So that leaves 60 minutes for 6 guys. Some will get more, some will get less, but it's entirely possible that not all will be happy.
In addition, while Steve Taylor, TJ Taylor, and Jamal Ferguson are all committed to come here now, as Chicos always said, they aren't coming until they sign their letter of intent. So if Buzz has the chance at both Cleare and Dunn, should he oversign, in the anticipation that someone might want to transfer or decide not to sign?
Two top 25 guys? At our two biggest "need" positions? That's a no brainer - sign em up.
I think you need to oversign. Under Buzz, there have been transfers out every year. I wouldn't doubt that this will be the case again after next year. (Not that I know anything...) There could be a Newbill-like situation, and that is something you have to prepare for, but I think having two unused scholarships is a bad problem too. Everyone who was on scholarship at MU before leaving, continues to be on scholarship now - and that includes Roseboro and Newbill. It's best that we use the scholarships we have allocated.
Dunn, Cleare, or Auguste. OVERSIGN. Like mentioned never know who transfers.
Any word on how we stand with A. J. Hammons?
Quote from: Earl Tatum on August 10, 2011, 07:52:18 AM
Any word on how we stand with A. J. Hammons?
http://illinois.scout.com/a.z?s=169&p=2&c=1092203&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fillinois.scout.com%2f2%2f1092203.html
Looks like we're still listed with him, but nobody knows for sure who he's interested in? I don't have insider, so I'm going from the blub.
Quote from: Earl Tatum on August 10, 2011, 07:52:18 AM
Any word on how we stand with A. J. Hammons?
Haven't been mentioned with him in ages, I'd guess we're out. He did recently say he felt he was a Big Ten guy. Sounds like Purdue will be tough to beat.
I'm a Big backer of oversigning and do not see anything wrong with it really. That said with 7 offer's out to Wisc player's in 2013 and a strong class of 2013 in chicago, This might be a year I would be ok if we don't, assuming we get a few early commits from 2013. Top 50 type player's I would take no matter what.
trucks------ Fully Agree. Still want a big.
I don't think you'll see Marquette oversigning. The program will not be doing anything to put any negative light on it after the situation this spring and oversigning will be construed as a negative by some people within the university.
Quote from: TedBaxter on August 12, 2011, 08:25:23 PM
I don't think you'll see Marquette oversigning. The program will not be doing anything to put any negative light on it after the situation this spring and oversigning will be construed as a negative by some people within the university.
Add to that, the heat that Buzz and the program took last year. I agree. I also hope they do not oversign. We've done it twice and each time were told it would work itself out. Saunders did in a way due to the bust. Newbill's was a pure cluster. No need for more bad press.
Buzz has a thicker skin than that. He will do whatever is deemed necessary to field the best possible team he can. It's big business with jobs at stake and if oversigning is his best guarantee of doing so, consider it today's cost of doin' business.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on August 12, 2011, 08:40:33 PM
Buzz has a thicker skin than that. He will do whatever is deemed necessary to field the best possible team he can. It's big business with jobs at stake and if oversigning is his best guarantee of doing so, consider it today's cost of doin' business.
What he said.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on August 12, 2011, 08:40:33 PM
Buzz has a thicker skin than that. He will do whatever is deemed necessary to field the best possible team he can. It's big business with jobs at stake and if oversigning is his best guarantee of doing so, consider it today's cost of doin' business.
Who said it's Buzz' skin?
Quote from: MUMac on August 12, 2011, 08:35:28 PMAdd to that, the heat that Buzz and the program took last year. I agree. I also hope they do not oversign. We've done it twice and each time were told it would work itself out. Saunders did in a way due to the bust. Newbill's was a pure cluster. No need for more bad press.
I think the problem with Newbill is twofold...first, it was blown up on their end. Honestly, I have to think that it was a conditional offer and when Wilson came available, it was rescinded. Who knows the truth, only those involved, but it seems like we heard more from Newbill's coach initially, who tried to rile everyone against Marquette.
The second part is that it was the first time for Buzz. Yes, the way Newbill was handled was a mistake. But if Wilson never opens up, it's not a problem. It wasn't so much oversigning as it was announcing a conditional player as a future scholarship player.
How would people feel if Buzz had acceptances from Dunn and Cleare right now? Would they "demand" that one of the five incoming players be rescinded? Would they just start speculating about who was on the way out? Or would they just accept that this is becoming a part of college basketball and wait until next summer to see how it played out?
For the time being, I tend to guess the first two scenarios are the most likely, but if oversigning becomes a habit and transfers and recruits changing their mind about MU before arriving sorts it out, is it really a problem in the long run? If not, I'm guessing eventually the third scenario would become the norm.
Quote from: MUMac on August 12, 2011, 08:45:37 PM
Who said it's Buzz' skin?
Implied heat and skin equals the head dude or Buzz.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on August 12, 2011, 08:56:12 PMImplied heat and skin equals the head dude or Buzz.
Honestly, my guess is that the people that have an issue with oversigning are media and fans. I'm guessing, like you, Buzz is going to do what's best for the team regardless. But I believe the "who says it's Buzz's skin" is more referencing the people that started the huge uproar, from Phillycoach to the media to online console jockeys to (eventually...well after everyone else's disapproval was raised) Newbill.
It was interesting how it seemed every message board in the country was up in arms before Newbill even started his complaints. Phillycoach at work?
I think what MUMac was saying is that Buzz isn't the only person who will be making this decision to offer a 14th scholarship. Whether it's Mike Broeker or another athletic director choice, there will be a microscope on the program and the players and coaches will be held accountable like Buzz always says. Oversigning in the fall when there is no obvious roster changes on the horizon will not be the way to go, especially in a new athletic director regime.
Quote from: TedBaxter on August 12, 2011, 09:07:54 PM
I think what MUMac was saying is that Buzz isn't the only person who will be making this decision to offer a 14th scholarship. Whether it's Mike Broeker or another athletic director choice, there will be a microscope on the program and the players and coaches will be held accountable like Buzz always says. Oversigning in the fall when there is no obvious roster changes on the horizon will not be the way to go, especially in a new athletic director regime.
Bingo.
It's Buzz' program and he's driving the bus, his call.
Oversigning can create problems, but you have to take the risk. First of all Buzz knows how happy or unhappy a player is. Anytime you add a recruit that should diminish another players playing time, if will have an effect on a players happiness. One of the reasons Taylor picked MU, was that he could see immediate playing time. I can imagine one of the reasons Anderson picked MU was that he could see immediate playing time. Jones probably felt the same thing. By watching the pro am, I know Anderson is better than Jones. I suspect Taylor is to. Jamal Furguson(sp) I hope is better than Jones. I have no idea if playing time is a big issue to Jones, but I am sure Buzz does. I also cannot see Vander Blue staying, if he is not going to be a starter in future years. I think Wilson, Anderson and Taylor will keep him from starting at small forward, especially if MU adds another top 100 forward. Signing a top point guard shuts him out at point. Are Mayo and Taylor good enough to shut him out at the two? I look at MU's roster for next year and after and I see a lot of very good players, but I do not see a star. Someone could develop into a real star and it could even be Blue. Howeveer, you have to oversign to bring in a star. Do not oversign to bring in a non-difference maker.
I would oversign only for a player that has the real chance to take the program to the 'next level' essentially by himself. With that said, I'm not really in the market for a 'one and done' kid as I think that sends a message contrary to MU's educational philosophy.
Buzz will over sign and other than 10 or 20 people on this board, no one will care.
No if over signing is a problem, then do away with the early signing period in November. Everyone signs in April.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on August 12, 2011, 09:30:22 PM
It's Buzz' program and he's driving the bus, his call.
Agreed. The AD works for Buzz...$$$ talks.
Quote from: bilsu on August 13, 2011, 09:35:59 AM
Oversigning can create problems, but you have to take the risk. First of all Buzz knows how happy or unhappy a player is. Anytime you add a recruit that should diminish another players playing time, if will have an effect on a players happiness. One of the reasons Taylor picked MU, was that he could see immediate playing time. I can imagine one of the reasons Anderson picked MU was that he could see immediate playing time. Jones probably felt the same thing. By watching the pro am, I know Anderson is better than Jones. I suspect Taylor is to. Jamal Furguson(sp) I hope is better than Jones. I have no idea if playing time is a big issue to Jones, but I am sure Buzz does. I also cannot see Vander Blue staying, if he is not going to be a starter in future years. I think Wilson, Anderson and Taylor will keep him from starting at small forward, especially if MU adds another top 100 forward. Signing a top point guard shuts him out at point. Are Mayo and Taylor good enough to shut him out at the two? I look at MU's roster for next year and after and I see a lot of very good players, but I do not see a star. Someone could develop into a real star and it could even be Blue. Howeveer, you have to oversign to bring in a star. Do not oversign to bring in a non-difference maker.
I have a pretty good guess that playing time maybe something desired by a schlolarship player. The cream rises to the top. Always oversign.
Quote from: bilsu on August 13, 2011, 09:35:59 AMBy watching the pro am, I know Anderson is better than Jones. I suspect Taylor is to. Jamal Furguson(sp) I hope is better than Jones. I have no idea if playing time is a big issue to Jones, but I am sure Buzz does. I also cannot see Vander Blue staying, if he is not going to be a starter in future years. I think Wilson, Anderson and Taylor will keep him from starting at small forward, especially if MU adds another top 100 forward. Signing a top point guard shuts him out at point. Are Mayo and Taylor good enough to shut him out at the two?
Two thoughts...first, seeing these guys at the Pro-Am isn't the same as what Buzz will see at Boot Camp. Maybe they get Mellow playing more inside, his body is well-suited for it now. He wasn't always a consistent shooter, but maybe he can be if he's getting 2-4 minute spurts instead of playing the whole game. I love Anderson, but I'm not sure he'll be as good of a game player as he is a Pro-Am player right now.
And I hate the idea of speculating on guys leaving. I get it, but until we see these guys get a chance in 2011-12, we have no idea how much a Jones or Blue might be able to give.
Don't get me wrong, I'm for oversigning, but I hope it doesn't force us to try to force our own out.
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 13, 2011, 04:43:11 PM
Two thoughts...first, seeing these guys at the Pro-Am isn't the same as what Buzz will see at Boot Camp. Maybe they get Mellow playing more inside, his body is well-suited for it now. He wasn't always a consistent shooter, but maybe he can be if he's getting 2-4 minute spurts instead of playing the whole game. I love Anderson, but I'm not sure he'll be as good of a game player as he is a Pro-Am player right now.
Not only not, but we know that defense is what gives you PT in Buzz's system. Since the Pro-Am doesn't emphasize defense at all, and Anderson has yet to go through a single organized practice, I think the idea that he will be playing in front of Jones is pre-mature. It certainly may happen, but don't base it on the Pro-Am.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 04:48:06 PM
Not only not, but we know that defense is what gives you PT in Buzz's system. Since the Pro-Am doesn't emphasize defense at all, and Anderson has yet to go through a single organized practice, I think the idea that he will be playing in front of Jones is pre-mature. It certainly may happen, but don't base it on the Pro-Am.
Honestly?
Jones is going to be deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep on the bench this year.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 04:48:06 PM
Not only not, but we know that defense is what gives you PT in Buzz's system. Since the Pro-Am doesn't emphasize defense at all, and Anderson has yet to go through a single organized practice, I think the idea that he will be playing in front of Jones is pre-mature. It certainly may happen, but don't base it on the Pro-Am.
Like everything that has been under Buzz's tenure, play in practice = more minutes.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on August 13, 2011, 05:18:42 PM
Jones is going to be deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep on the bench this year.
Our guards off the bench are...Blue...and...???? Choices are Mayo, D. Wilson and Jones.
My money is on Jones getting 12-15 mpg.
Jones. It seemed to me that Buzz wanted to play him last year in situations, but was fearful of his defense. He'll get the prep minutes he needs early in the season, and if he can open the lane up with his outside shot it will be a big deal for MU. Watching Anderson in the Pro-Am, and understanding what the Pro-Am is, I don't see Anderson doing much for MU this season.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 05:39:05 PM
Our guards off the bench are...Blue...and...???? Choices are Mayo, D. Wilson and Jones.
My money is on Jones getting 12-15 mpg.
Bets?
I don't gamble, but I would like to hear your alternative. I do think that Anderson gets minutes this year too... 8-9 per game.
I think Mayo will be in the top 8-9 players this year.
Quote from: TedBaxter on August 13, 2011, 06:04:16 PM
I think Mayo will be in the top 8-9 players this year.
But see I don't know what you base that on. He didn't play Pro-Am. I didn't see anything that differentiated him from Jones at the HS level.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 07:34:48 PM
But see I don't know what you base that on. He didn't play Pro-Am. I didn't see anything that differentiated him from Jones at the HS level.
First of all, Mayo played in the New England prep school area and played against better competition and he had something like 4 or 5 teammates sign with Division 1 schools and that didn't include Ledo, Myles Davis and Sam Cassell Jr. who will sign this fall.
Second, he was the best offensive performer on that team and what did he score in that National Prep School championships? 88 points in 3 games.
You can search Youtube for Todd Mayo or Notre Dame Prep to see some of his action, but this highlight video from a year ago shows you his offensive ability and he had the same type of success with Notre Dame Prep last year. Very, very deceptive athlete and very patient with the ball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r4WjzdAzb0
First of all Anderson, based on what other posters have posted this year, was known more in high school for defense than offense. So I believe he will be okay there. The problems I see for him is strength and sometimes he tries to do too much with the ball. I do not see many minutes for Jones at guard. I would expect DJO to play 30 minutes and Cadougan to play 25. I like D. Wilson, but he probably gets 1 minute of playing time. I have no idea about Mayo. Let us assume he only gets 1 minute, although I am hoping that he gets a lot more. That leaves 23 minutes at guard. Both Anderson and J. Wilson can also play guard, but let us leave them out of the equation. Blue is going to get the majority of those 23 minutes. The minutes Jones gets will mostly be at the forward spot. I think Crowder and J. Wilson play 25 minutes each. Throw a minute to Gardner at the four leaves 29 minutes for Blue, Anderson and Jones. I think most people would agree that Blue would be first choice out of the three. However, his minutes here will be limited by the minutes he plays at guard. Blue's minutes at guard will be determined by how good Mayo is. Assuming Mayo only plays one minute, Blue will probably only take 4 minutes of the forward spot leaving 28 minutes for Jones and Anderson. Jones will play a lot in games where he shows he can hit the three. When he is off he will not play long leaving the minutes to Anderson. Jones could very well be the first man off the bench at forward, but end up averaging less minutes than Anderson, because Jones' game is much more limited than Anderson's.
Quote from: TedBaxter on August 13, 2011, 08:00:47 PM
First of all, Mayo played in the New England prep school area and played against better competition and he had something like 4 or 5 teammates sign with Division 1 schools and that didn't include Ledo, Myles Davis and Sam Cassell Jr. who will sign this fall.
Second, he was the best offensive performer on that team and what did he score in that National Prep School championships? 88 points in 3 games.
You can search Youtube for Todd Mayo or Notre Dame Prep to see some of his action, but this highlight video from a year ago shows you his offensive ability and he had the same type of success with Notre Dame Prep last year. Very, very deceptive athlete and very patient with the ball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r4WjzdAzb0
I am not sure that Mayo played against better competition than Jones. Jones was on one of the top teams and they played against other top teams in the country. However, the three national tournament games I watched Jones play on TV in high school it was obvious he wanted to stay outside and jack up threes. However, he did have too great dunks in these games. The first one was number 7 in ESPN's top 10 plays. The next day he got the number one play in ESPN's top ten plays. He could be a pretty good player, if Buzz can get him to do more than just shoot threes. However, he just does not seem to want to change his game.
Ted, what you are saying about Mayo you could say about Jones in many ways. Top team...tough competition...excellent teammates (four from that team are playing D1 ball). But you could be right. We will have to see how it plays out.
bilsu, I understand your logic. I just think Jones will play more off the bench because of his outside shot. Blue and Junior just don't have that. If Mayo steps up, he might steal those minutes. I see Anderson as a primary sub at forward because I don't think we will see Gardner and Otule much on the floor at the same time.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 08:29:13 PM
Ted, what you are saying about Mayo you could say about Jones in many ways. Top team...tough competition...excellent teammates (four from that team are playing D1 ball). But you could be right. We will have to see how it plays out.
bilsu, I understand your logic. I just think Jones will play more off the bench because of his outside shot. Blue and Junior just don't have that. If Mayo steps up, he might steal those minutes. I see Anderson as a primary sub at forward because I don't think we will see Gardner and Otule much on the floor at the same time.
Nope, could not say the same about Jones. Mayo's play in the tournament is no where close to Jones. Mayo had more depth to his game as well.
I also know that Ted would not base it on a game or two. Knowing Ted, he has watched a fair amount film on both before he made any determination.
This information comes from reports from the New England Recruiting Report, which I think is one of the best sources of high school/prep school information there is and I made a mistake earlier. Notre Dame Prep had 8 D1 signees last year, not including Ledo, Davis and Cassell Jr..
Just in the National Prep School Championships alone, in the three games Notre Dame Prep competed in, the trio of opponents, the Tilton School, Brewster Academy and St. Thomas More had a total of 10 division 1 players from the 2011 class but that doesn't tell the whole story as each of the 3 teams had underclassman who are ranked in the top 5 in the 2012 and 2013 classes.
In the opening game, Notre Dame went up against the Tilton School and that school had a top 100 2012 recruit and Iowa State verbal Georges Niang, top 5 2013 player Nerlens Noel, 2013 forward Goodluck Okonoboh and 2014 stud Wayne Seldon.
In the second game, they went up against Brewster Academy for the second or third time last year and Brewster had 2011 signees Naadir Tharpe (Kansas), Jakarr Simpson (St. John's), Markus Kennedy (Villanova), Durand Johnson (Pitt), Elijah Carter (Rutgers) and Max Hooper (Harvard) and the underclassman included some guy named Mitch McGary and another mystery guy in Deonte Burton.
Ironically, the least talented team overall may have been St. Thomas More, the team that beat Notre Dame Prep for the championship. They had 2 Wofford signees, a Drexel signee and a big guy named Andre Drummond.
I'll go out on a limb and say Mayo is the most offensive ready freshman at MU since at least Lazar Hayward, and possbily even going back to the Amigos. That's my opinion of watching game video of him.
Ted, you have shown that you know more than me about this kind of stuff, so I will give you the benefit of the doubt.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on August 13, 2011, 09:12:42 PM
Ted, you have shown that you know more than me about this kind of stuff, so I will give you the benefit of the doubt.
We'll see how much I know in the end with Todd Mayo. I've probably seen game clips from 5 or 6 games last year and in every game he produced the same way. The only time I saw him look bad was when he went up against the Tilton School in a non-tournament game and on two plays in the second half he tried to challenge Nerlens Noel on drives and got snuffed each time by the shotblocker. Then he won that game by hitting clutch shot after clutch shot.
Getting back to the original question, if we have the chance to get Dunn and Cleare you definitely oversign and let things sort themselves out. I highly doubt we end up in that situation though. More likely that we will not get either one and the question will become whether we should bank a scholarship. Hope I'm wrong this time.