MUScoop

Win Credits predicts 26+ wins for MU next two years

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Hoping the storm clouds will pass, but in the meantime ... Ever since the Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University was published a few years ago with the Win Credits for former Marquette players, I've annually compiled how many "Win Credits" each player gets for the most recent season.  This year the formula gives Jimmy Butler credit for 5.8 of Marquette's wins, with DJO and Jae Crowder not far behind.


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PlayerSTLBLKREBAPTSContribWin Credits[/tr]

Butler, Jimmy	53	13	225	86	582	1025	5.8
Crowder, Jae	48	32	251	58	435	904	4.9
Johnson-Odom, Darius	31	7	112	88	584	860	4.6
Buycks, Dwight	38	2	111	121	318	630	2.9
Otule, Chris	11	55	134	5	188	459	1.6
Blue, Vander	33	8	104	59	187	432	1.3
Cadougan, Junior	20	2	66	115	145	370	0.9
Gardner, Davante	4	5	73	10	152	253	0
Fulce, Joseph	7	7	61	12	92	193	0
Williams, Erik	4	0	38	3	53	102	0
Jones, Jamail	6	1	21	3	27	65	0
Smith, Reggie	9	2	12	13	11	58	0
Frozena, Robert	1	0	4	1	8	15	0

Without revisiting the whole formula, just note that Steals and Blocks count double, and then one-tenth of the team's points allowed are subtracted for each player to account for defense (254.6 this year, so a player had to have 255 contributions to get Win Credits, unfortunately leaving Davante just short despite several huge performances).
In looking at upcoming seasons, these performances are compared to the performances of all Big East players since 2003 based on how many Stars Rivals awarded them out of college, and what year they are in school.  When we ran through this a year ago, we did express some concern about how much was expected of Vander Blue as a freshman, since typically 5-stars are not key players until their sophomore year, while 4-stars typically become key players as juniors.  Here are the Big East averages since 2004:


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StarsFreshmanSophomoreJuniorSenior[/tr]

0-2 Stars	0.1	0.7	0.9	1.1
3-star	0.3	1.2	2.1	3.2
4-star	1.7	3.1	4.3	4.4
5-star	2.4	4.7	6.3	NA

Based on this table, we did stress last year that Jae Crowder was almost sure to be the more dominant rookie player over Blue this year.  Blue was at the end of the 5-star list for Rivals, so we'd expect him to contribute a little less than the 2.4 a 5-star freshman averages, while as national JUCO player of the year, we certainly expected Crowder to produce much more than your typical 3-star junior's 2.1.  In fact, Blue's 1.3 as a freshman was below average but not bad, and Crowder simply had a phenomenial year that your average 4-star never reaches.

Now in looking ahead, we put the two tables together above to project the standard improvement, and it appears Marquette has about 26 wins on the roster for the next two years, plus whatever they can get out of one more signee for next year and two more for 2013.

In looking at the forecast, and the last two years, the 2010 Win Credit total is a little high because Singleton actually produced wins for High Point while Wilson produced his for Oregon.


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Player20092010201120122013[/tr]

Crowder, Jae (3, Jr.)	JC	JC	4.9	6	Gr
Johnson-Odom, Darius (3,Jr.)	JC	3.5	4.6	5.7	Gr
Blue, Vander (5,Fr)	HS	HS	1.3	3.6	5.2
Otule, Chris (2,So)	RS	0	1.6	2.5	3.6
Cadougan, Junior(4,So)	HS	0	0.9	2.3	3.5
Anderson, Juan (4,HS)	HS	HS	HS	1.9	3.3
Wilson, Jamil (4,RSSo)	HS	0.5	RS	1.9	3.1
Singleton, David (0,RSJr.)		1.1	RS	1.2	Gr
Gardner, Davante (3,Fr)	HS	HS	0	0.9	1.8
Wilson, Derrick (3,HS)	HS	HS	HS	0.3	1.2
Mayo, Todd (3,HS)	HS	HS	HS	0.3	1.2
Williams, Erik (4,So)	HS	0	0	0	0
Jones, Jamail (4,Fr)	HS	HS	0	0	1.2
Ferguson, Jamal (4,HSJr)	HS	HS	HS	HS	1.9
Acker, Maurice (Gr)	0	2.7	Gr	Gr	Gr
Burke, Dwight (3,Gr)	0.1	Gr	Gr	Gr	Gr
Butler, Jimmy (0 star, Sr.)	1.3	5.3	5.8	Gr	Gr
Buycks, Dwight (3,Sr)	JC	1.7	2.9	Gr	Gr
Cubillan, David (Gr)	0	1.7	Gr	Gr	Gr
Frozena, Robert (0,Fr)	0	0	0	Gr	Gr
Fulce, Joseph (3,Sr)	0	0.5	0	Gr	Gr
Hayward, Lazar (4,Gr)	6.3	6.6	Gr	Gr	Gr
James, Dominic (4,Gr)	3.4	Gr	Gr	Gr	Gr
Matthews, Wesley (4,Gr)	6.6	Gr	Gr	Gr	Gr
McNeal, Jerel (4, Gr)	7.4	Gr	Gr	Gr	Gr
Smith, Reggie (3,Fr)	HS	HS	0	Tr	Tr
Total wins forecast	25.1	23.6	22	26.6	26
Additional spots to fill				1	2

I believe this gives a pretty good picture of the potential for the next two years.  I believe the 2010 team was clearly better than the sum of its parts (22 wins vs. 19 projected through this method), while this year the total was not quite as good as the sum of its parts (22 wins against with 25 projected), and the latter pulled down the projections for the next two years.

The prediction last year was that MU would be back at about the Three Amigos level of a team that could make the tournament and possibly win a game, so the Sweet 16 did exceed expectations even though the 22 overall wins was three short (partly due to playing Duke, Gonzaga, at Vandy and in a tougher than expected Big East).  That leaves the question of whether the team is truly ready for a deep run next year, now that the forecast is down to 26+ wins.

My subjective look at these projections are that I don't know if Crowder and DJO can take it to another level from the high level they already hit this year, but it looks like it's their team this year and Vander's the next.

They guys who clearly have more upside than this straight formula shows are Davante Gardner, who would have showed a strong season except for the long stretch of games he rarely played in, and Jamail Jones, who is still considered the 36th best freshman prospect in the country according to www.nbadraft.net.  Unlike a few years ago, virtually everyone seems to have the potential to step in and be a big contributor, but this gives just the projected contributions based on their stats or star-ratings to date.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/03/win-credits-predicts-26-wins-for-mu.html

I think those are realistic numbers if all the guys are back.

Why are Erik Williams' win credits equal to 0 for the next couple of years?

So will these numbers go up if Buzz fills out his classes for 2011 and 2012? What difference will it make if he adds a 3, 4, or 5 star to either of those classes?

Erik williams certainly could be higher, but going strictly by the formula his statistical contributions are actually a good bit below the 254 needed for zero, so even with more contribtions he wouldn't hit the threshold. By comparison, davante already had enough contributions to almost break in this year.

To determone the impact of a new recruit, go to the small box in the middle.  So if buzz grans another 3-star juco coming in as a junior then that wpuld add 2.1 wins, whereas another 3-star fresh would just add 0.3.  Buzz knows what he is doing filling spots with juniors from the juco ranks.

Thanks goose, I was just trying to make it a resolution not to argue with you and willie so much on these blogs during lent at least, so appreciate you saying this looked realistic. And really, no sarcasm intended, I really had just decided that.

Marquette---To a certain degree this post supports Willie and my argument. The numbers are calling for 26+ wins next year and that is my goal. Lower than that will be disappointment. Imagine what the number would be with a McDonald's AA added to the mix. I am happy with Buzz and his recruiting overall, but hope it goes to next level.

I hope all the fans that do not want higher expectations remember this thread next spring. This bar was set by firm numbers and not an aggressive fan like me. 26+ wins is the bar and I love that. Just win baby!!!

See, I actually feel much better about next year than I did going into this past year.  Fulce and DB are essentially "just players" who can be replaced.  JFB is of course more than that, but with the talent coming in (including Jamil), and the continued development of the current roster, I think they will be better next year.

Frankly, it could be argued that the guys who just wrapped up their senior careers, are the weakest group that Buzz has lost.  As harsh as that sounds, I think it is true.

Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on March 30, 2011, 09:47:43 AM
Frankly, it could be argued that the guys who just wrapped up their senior careers, are the weakest group that Buzz has lost.  As harsh as that sounds, I think it is true.

That's not harsh, it is accurate. By the end of the season MU had one major senior contributor in JFB.

Awesome post... This is something that is super insightful!

Thanks Goose - I just bristle a little when I hear words like "mediocracy," which I believe we are well beyond.  No question we are not on par with Kansas, Kentucky, UNC and Duke, and realistically I don't believe we can be year in and year out, but certainly we can get into that next tier of teams that in any given year can make a big run.

I don't believe anyone is being harsh in saying we lost less this year than in the past few, and I don't believe that is any discredit to the seniors.

Jimmy Butler was one of the biggest surprises in the history of the program.  A JUCO trasfer with 0 stars who was just an add-on to getting Joe Fulce, and the guy gives us 2+ fantastic years - so to say we lost more when we lost 2nd team AP All-American Jerel McNeal AND NBA star Wesley Matthews AND former BE rookie of the year Dominic James in teh same year, or that we lost more when we lost the guy who might be the best player in the BE last year in Lazar plus two seniors who stepped up their game incredibly from behind the arc is no insult to Jimmy, or Dwight or Joe or Robert "here's a 3-pointer for the road" Frozena.  We would not have made the tourney without Dwight being willing to play the point and produce wins there, and Fulce's ability to battle through all the knee injuries and hit so many big shots and shoot 100% from the line was a huge boost.

But the bigger focus in why we look so good moving forward is:

5-star players tend to be stars starting their sophomore year (Vander Blue)
4-star players tend to be stars starting their junior year (Junior, Williams maybe Jamil with the redshirt year under his belt)
so if you logically have four potential breakout years to join Jae and DJO for 6 potential stars, and then you look at the recruits and the vast improvement of the 3-stars, and we just have a lot more improvement coming in for next year than we have ability being lost through graduation.

I said last year we would win 5 more games in 2012 than we did in 2011, and I still believe that is the case.

Quote from: bamamarquettefan on March 30, 2011, 01:49:19 PM
5-star players tend to be stars starting their sophomore year (Vander Blue)

Hope so.  I'm holding out hope that his experience with the U19 team more hampered his development than it did help him.  He's got six months of hard work in front of him that is going to go a long way toward determining what kind of player he will be like here at MU.

Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on March 30, 2011, 01:53:14 PM
Hope so.  I'm holding out hope that his experience with the U19 team more hampered his development than it did help him.  He's got six months of hard work in front of him that is going to go a long way toward determining what kind of player he will be like here at MU.

Vander showed me enough this year to make me believe he'll be much better next year.  Usually kids come in knowing how to play offense and have to learn defense, Blue is the opposite.  I think he's got potential to be a big-time playmaker who ultimately will be able to consistently attack the rim and feed guys in the low post.

bama---Like how you think. We are on same page now that the Buzzer signed on. I am very excited about next season. My goal is be consistently closer to UNC, Duke and Kentucky than Xavier, St. John's or Gonzaga. I do not think that is unrealistic expectation for the program.

Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on March 30, 2011, 01:53:14 PMHope so.  I'm holding out hope that his experience with the U19 team more hampered his development than it did help him.  He's got six months of hard work in front of him that is going to go a long way toward determining what kind of player he will be like here at MU.

I think in the short term it did hurt him, but in the long term it will end up helping him. Coming in as a 5-star recruit, Vander was saddled with unrealistic expectations. Should anyone have expected him to play 25 mpg while averaging 14/4/4? That hardly would have been fair, but at times, seemed like what we wanted out of him. Instead, we got a very good defender who at times flashed the ability to get to the hole, but for the most part struggled more and more offensively as the season went on.

But it's that defender part that encourages me. On the U-18 team he learned quickly that the only way he could play a major role was by being a tenacious defender. That translated to the regular season, and his defense was what got him his 19 mpg throughout the season. It seems like getting young stars to play defense is the hardest thing to do, and Vander already has that down. Now Buzz and Vander can focus on improving the offensive end, which should come fairly naturally to a kid as talented as Blue obviously is.

Quote from: Goose on March 30, 2011, 04:29:08 PM
bama---Like how you think. We are on same page now that the Buzzer signed on. I am very excited about next season. My goal is be consistently closer to UNC, Duke and Kentucky than Xavier, St. John's or Gonzaga. I do not think that is unrealistic expectation for the program.

Agreed, and on your point on needing a few All-Americans, let's just hope Vander Blue can break down the door to 5-star players considering Marquette.  Since we joined the Big East, 37 teams have signed multiple Rivals 5-star players and we aren't one of them yet.  Think we've done an incredible job of developing 3-star and 4-star players, but WVU and Butler seem to be the only teams to make deep runs without 5-star players.  Here is the count by conference and team since MU joined the Big East:

School   #5 stars since 2005
Kentucky   13
Duke   10
North Carolina   10
Texas   9
Kansas   8
Ohio St.   8
Memphis   7
Arizona   6
Connecticut   6
Syracuse   6
Florida   5
Louisville   5
Oklahoma St.   5
Indiana   4
Kansas St.   4
Mississippi St.   4
N.C. State   4
Tennessee   4
UCLA   4
Villanova   4
Baylor   3
Florida St.   3
Georgetown   3
Georgia   3
Georgia Tech   3
LSU   3
Michigan St.   3
Oklahoma   3
Stanford   3
USC   3
Wake Forest   3
Washington   3
Alabama   2
Arizona St.   2
Cincinnati   2
Pittsburgh   2
UNLV   2
Arkansas   1
Clemson   1
DePaul   1
Gonzaga   1
Iowa St.   1
Marquette   1 (thank you Vander Blue!)
Miami (FL)   1
Minnesota   1
Missouri   1
Oregon   1
St. John's   1
Texas A&M   1
Vanderbilt   1
West Virginia   1
Wisconsin   1

Although now that I look at where the players come from, Wisconsin and the 4 continguous states have only produced 10 of 205 (counting yet to commit) Rivals 5-stars, so I guess it's good that Buzz is pulling players from 5-star hot beds like NC, TX and VA:

5-stars by state since 2005

CA   18
TX   18
FL   15
GA   13
IN   10
NJ   10
NC   9
NY   9
OH   9
TN   9
MD   8
VA   8
IL   6
MA   6
NV   6
AL   5
PA   5
MO   4
OK   4
OR   4
WA   4
MS   3
NH   3
CT   2
KY   2
LA   2
WV   2
AK   1
AR   1
AZ   1
IA   1
KS   1
MI   1
MN   1
RI   1
SC   1
SD   1
WI   112 states with    0

Quote from: bamamarquettefan on March 30, 2011, 11:30:15 PM
Although now that I look at where the players come from, Wisconsin and the 4 continguous states have only produced 10 of 205 (counting yet to commit) Rivals 5-stars, so I guess it's good that Buzz is pulling players from 5-star hot beds like NC, TX and VA:

5-stars by state since 2005

CA   18
TX   18
FL   15
GA   13
IN   10
NJ   10
NC   9
NY   9
OH   9
TN   9
MD   8
VA   8
IL   6
MA   6
NV   6
AL   5
PA   5
MO   4
OK   4
OR   4
WA   4
MS   3
NH   3
CT   2
KY   2
LA   2
WV   2
AK   1
AR   1
AZ   1
IA   1
KS   1
MI   1
MN   1
RI   1
SC   1
SD   1
WI   112 states with    0

Buzz is also starting to gain a pipeline in the New England Prep schools with Wilson and Mayo.

Quote from: ken8406 on March 31, 2011, 12:36:54 AM
Buzz is also starting to gain a pipeline in the New England Prep schools with Wilson and Mayo.

Had D.J. Newbill for about 10 seconds too