http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=679
Elite8 Final4 Final Champ Prev
1. 1E Ohio St. 75.2 62.0 41.9 30.6 21.6
2. 1SW Kansas 81.1 66.3 42.8 19.8 12.4
3. 1W Duke 82.9 56.5 29.4 19.0 15.3
4. 4SE Wisconsin 79.0 47.4 25.0 9.5 2.5
5. 2W San Diego St. 59.0 24.5 9.4 4.7 5.0
6. 3SE BYU 56.4 27.7 12.7 4.0 2.7
7. 4E Kentucky 24.8 15.1 6.4 3.1 3.4
8. 2E North Carolina 63.4 16.5 6.0 2.5 1.6
9. 2SE Florida 43.6 18.8 7.6 2.0 1.4
10. 3W Connecticut 41.0 13.8 4.3 1.8 1.0
11. 10SW Florida St. 64.2 17.6 5.9 1.2 0.09
12. 12SW Richmond 18.9 9.7 3.0 0.5 0.06
13. 11E Marquette 36.6 6.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
14. 5W Arizona 17.1 5.3 1.1 0.3 0.2
15. 8SE Butler 21.0 6.0 1.5 0.2 0.04
16. 11SW VCU 35.8 6.5 1.4 0.2 0.0005
One in 200 chance for a National Title.
Here were the odds before the Tourney started
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=673
Rd3 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in...
30. 11E Marquette 52.5 19.4 7.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 762
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Last week 19.4% chance of making the sweet sixteen. This week 100%
Last week, 7.5% chance of making the Elite 8, this week, 36.6%
Last week 1.7% chance of making the FF, this week 6.3%
Last week 0.4% chance of making the Championship game, this week 1.6%
Last week 0.1% chance of making winning the NCAA, this week 0.5%
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Interestingly, here were our odds for the BE Tourney.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=666
Seed Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
9 Connecticut 92.8 46.6 12.7 4.7 2.0
46.6% chance of making the quarters and we did.
(http://moviecapper.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/jim-carrey.jpg)
So you're saying there's a chance??!
Great minds think alike.
Thank you Lloyd Christmas
A 5x better chance than before last weekend!
Quote from: speri on March 21, 2011, 04:14:22 PM
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=679
Elite8 Final4 Final Champ Prev
1. 1E Ohio St. 75.2 62.0 41.9 30.6 21.6
2. 1SW Kansas 81.1 66.3 42.8 19.8 12.4
3. 1W Duke 82.9 56.5 29.4 19.0 15.3
4. 4SE Wisconsin 79.0 47.4 25.0 9.5 2.5
5. 2W San Diego St. 59.0 24.5 9.4 4.7 5.0
6. 3SE BYU 56.4 27.7 12.7 4.0 2.7
7. 4E Kentucky 24.8 15.1 6.4 3.1 3.4
8. 2E North Carolina 63.4 16.5 6.0 2.5 1.6
9. 2SE Florida 43.6 18.8 7.6 2.0 1.4
10. 3W Connecticut 41.0 13.8 4.3 1.8 1.0
11. 10SW Florida St. 64.2 17.6 5.9 1.2 0.09
12. 12SW Richmond 18.9 9.7 3.0 0.5 0.06
13. 11E Marquette 36.6 6.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
14. 5W Arizona 17.1 5.3 1.1 0.3 0.2
15. 8SE Butler 21.0 6.0 1.5 0.2 0.04
16. 11SW VCU 35.8 6.5 1.4 0.2 0.0005
One in 200 chance for a National Title.
Although when you just look at it one game at a time, as our chances of getting to the Elite 8, we are ahead of Richmond and Kentucky, which means we are the 11th mostly likely team out of the remaining 16 to advance. Not terrible.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on March 21, 2011, 04:36:33 PM
Interestingly, here were our odds for the BE Tourney.
Seed Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
9 Connecticut 92.8 46.6 12.7 4.7 2.0
46.6% chance of making the quarters and we did.
Hey, you're a UConn fan!?!? ;D
Marquette actually only had a 32.1% chance - and that's less than our chance of beating UNC. They're DOOMED!!
Seed Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
11 Marquette 76.4 32.1 11.9 4.7 1.5
My biggest worry is UNC's length and defense. However, I think the Washington game was very telling. If you can run with them and knock down shots, you can keep up. The Huskies, like us, have a very efficient offense, play at pace, and don't have the best of defenses. UNC also plays at pace, but has a great defense. However, their offense isn't as efficient as ours is.
Granted, defense wins championships, but one thing we're learning about Buzz is that while his teams may not be consistent defensively, they are excellent when he can focus in on a single opponent. Given a few days to dissect Xavier, we had a great game plan and decimated them. Against Syracuse, most of the work was done from earlier in the season. Now they have four days to prep for UNC, and I am confident that with no other distractions, they will have a very good defensive strategy.
My other worry is their length. They have 4 guys that get 14+ minutes per game and are 6'8" or taller. Otule has to stay out of foul trouble or we could struggle mightily in the post. I really hope JFB is assigned to cover Barnes. He's quick enough, and if the responsibility falls to Otule, I expect he'll be in severe foul trouble. His hands will be full enough with Henson and Zeller.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 21, 2011, 04:51:20 PM
Hey, you're a UConn fan!?!? ;D
Marquette actually only had a 32.1% chance - and that's less than our chance of beating UNC. They're DOOMED!!
Seed Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
11 Marquette 76.4 32.1 11.9 4.7 1.5
A thousand apologies for this typo.
Yes, I was going to say we have less than of making the BE quarters than beating UNC.
We had less odds of making the S16 than beating UNC.
Can we overcome the odds and beat UNC? Answer: We have overcome long odds in each of the last two weeks.
Good things come in threes!
Quote from: AnotherMU84 link=topic=26176.msg292893#msg292893 Good things come in threes!
/quote]
But can they come in sixes? Double threes, after all.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 21, 2011, 04:55:57 PM
Now they have four days to prep for UNC, and I am confident that with no other distractions, they will have a very good defensive strategy.
The thing is I think distractions could be a real problem. I mean Buzz is on every sports show/radio show possible right now and he wasn't having to deal with that the week leading up to Xavier. Plus, I think it's human nature for the players/coaches to kinda let their joy/sense of accomplishment from making the Sweet 16 in such a long time to make them not as hungry. MU is all over the media this week and UNC is back home and actually out of the spotlight. Why? Because at UNC you're expected to make the Sweet 16 every year. I'll be surprised if this MU team comes out with the same focus and intensity as it had this past weekend in Cleveland.
Quote from: Doris Burkes Thong on March 22, 2011, 04:58:27 PM
The thing is I think distractions could be a real problem. I mean Buzz is on every sports show/radio show possible right now and he wasn't having to deal with that the week leading up to Xavier. Plus, I think it's human nature for the players/coaches to kinda let their joy/sense of accomplishment from making the Sweet 16 in such a long time to make them not as hungry. MU is all over the media this week and UNC is back home and actually out of the spotlight. Why? Because at UNC you're expected to make the Sweet 16 every year. I'll be surprised if this MU team comes out with the same focus and intensity as it had this past weekend in Cleveland.
Agreed. Buzz is getting a ton of attention. Probably should start focusing in starting tomorrow.
I think that this team is better enjoying the moment. I think that they play better when they are throwing up the three goggles rather than getting all serious.