OK, in all the debate the last day or two about whether Buzz will leave after this season, or if MU is still a "stepping stone" job, I looked at all the coaches who have won the tournament since John Wooden won the first of his 10 national championships. Marquette has won the tournament before and was in the Final Four as recently as 2003 so I think we can say that it is not out of the realm of possibility that Marquette can win it again. However, what would need to happen for that to take place? By just looking at the average years it takes for a coach to actually win the tournament (Steve Fisher being a huge aberration at Michigan), Marquette really needs a coach that will stay for awhile.
Here's the list of coaches who have won it all, in the order they won their first tournament, average years it took them to reach their first Final Four, and years it took to win the championship:
John Wooden: FF & Championship - 16 years at UCLA and 18 years in coaching overall.
Norm Sloan: FF & Championship - 8 years at NC State and 22 years overall.
Bobby Knight: FF - 2 years at IU and 8 years overall; Championship - 5 years at IU and 11 years overall.
Al McGuire: FF - 10 years at MU and 18 overall; Championship - 13 years at MU and 21 overall.
Joe B. Hall: FF - 3 years at UK and 9 overall; Championship - 6 years at UK and 12 years overall.
Jud Heathcote: FF & Championship - 3 years at MSU and 8 overall.
Denny Crum: FF - 1 year at Louisville and 5 overall; Championship - 9 years at Louisville and 13 overall.
Larry Brown: FF - 1 year at UCLA and 1 overall; Championship - 5 years at KU and 7 overall.
Steve Fisher: FF & Championship - 1 year at Michigan and 1 overall (6 games as head coach).
Jerry Tarkanian: FF - 4 years at UNLV and 9 overall; Championship - 17 years at UNLV and 22 overall.
Mike Krzyzewski: FF - 6 years at Duke and 11 overall; Championship - 11 years at Duke and 16 overall.
Dean Smith: FF - 6 years at UNC and 6 overall; Championship - 21 years and UNC and 21 overall.
Nolan Richardson: FF - 5 years at Arkansas and 10 overall; Championship - 9 years at Ark and 14 overall.
Jim Harrick: FF & Championship - 7 years at UCLA and 16 overall.
Rick Pitino: FF - 2 years at Providence and 7 overall; Championship - 7 years at Kentucky and 14 overall.
Lute Olson: FF - 6 years at Iowa and 10 overall; Championship - 14 years at Arizona and 28 overall.
Tubby Smith: FF & Championship - 1 year at Kentucky and 7 overall.
Jim Calhoun: FF & Championship - 13 years at UConn and 27 overall.
Tom Izzo: FF - 4 years at MSU and 4 overall; Championship - 5 years at MSU and 5 overall.
Gary Williams: FF - 12 years at Maryland and 23 overall; Championship - 13 years at Maryland and 24 overall.
Jim Boeheim: FF - 11 years at Syracuse and 11 overall: Championship - 27 years at Syracuse and 27 overall.
Roy Williams: FF - 3 years and KU and 3 overall; Championship - 2 years at UNC and 17 overall.
Billy Donovan: FF - 4 years at Florida and 6 overall; Championship - 10 years at Florida and 12 overall.
Billy Self: FF & Championship - 5 years at KU and 15 overall.
So, the average time it takes a coach to reach a Final Four is 5.5 years in the program and 10.6 years of coaching experience. To win the Championship, the average is 9.5 years with the same school and 15.8 years of coaching experience.
The only coach to win it in their first year of head coaching was Steve Fisher, who won it with the interim tag and won 6 games in the tournament in 1989 after Bill Freieder was forced out after he accepted the Arizona State job.
I think it is safe to consider Fisher as an extreme outlier.
Excluding Fisher, Izzo won it all the quickest, in his 5th year of coaching. Next, Larry Brown and Tubby Smith won it in their 7th year of head coahing and Jud Heathcote won it in 8. Everyone else on the list took at least 11 years to win their first title.
On the flip side, it took Lute Olson 28 years, Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim 27 years, Gary Williams 24 years and Norm Sloan and Jerry Tarkanian 22 years to win it all. Marquette's own Al McGuire didn't win his title util his 21st and last year as a head coach.
I think all this shows is that to really get back to competing for Final Fours and National Championships, Marquette needs a coach that will stay awhile. Hopefully, Buzz can be that coach.