Feel free to correct me, but at first glance I think only USC (67th) with a worse RPI than us for At-Large bids. USC has to play a play-in game.
Considering Colorado was two spots behind us at 65, I have to think we got in by the skin of our teeth. Va Tech at 61 I'm sure is going to bitch about us. As will Boston College. Our SOS probably saved our bacon in those final discussions.
The statistical patterns appear to have held...you get below 60 and the chances of getting in are dicey at best.
61 Va Tech...out
62 Southern Miss...out
63 Marquette...in
64 Oklahoma State...out
65 Colorado....out
66 New Mexico...out
67 USC...in (play in game)
68 Iona...out
69 Central Florida...out
While I won't disagree with your premise that we need to enhance our OOC schedule, I don't think you can say that any of those teams have a legitimate gripe that they're more deserving of a spot than Marquette. Had we not been selected, the opposite would be just as true.
Looks like the committee really went by the RPI this year..at first glance...
We need to improve the RPI in the future. While I disagree that we deserve to be an 11, it's clear that our RPI is what put us there (though devout RPI followers should note that 12/14 losses were to top-35 RPI teams) and it's the one correctable thing that must be addressed in the future.
I'd like all the RPI heads tO explain USU as a 12 seed (#15 rpi...)
Don't need to improve schedule, just need to win more games....it's pretty simple.
I think RPI needs to be fixed. I know it's a pipedream, but if that's what they're going to use, it should better represent the teams in order of how good they are.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 13, 2011, 06:13:28 PMI'd like all the RPI heads tO explain USU as a 12 seed (#15 rpi...)
Obviously it's not the only factor, but it's the heaviest one and the only way to explain a number of the teams seeded ahead of us with clearly inferior resumes. As far as Utah State, they simply didn't play anyone. Their schedule is similar to that of Belmont, and they lost to the only good teams they played. It's a good note that they were seeded below their RPI, but they are an outlier in this tourney, far from the rule.
Quote from: esotericmindguy on March 13, 2011, 06:14:02 PM
Don't need to improve schedule, just need to win more games....it's pretty simple.
Idiotic in many ways - our RPI gets destroyed due to playing the Centenary's, Miss Valley State, etc. We just need to schedule more 100-175 teams in the non conference schedule..our RPI would jump roughly 15-20 spots.
The problem with scheduling higher RPI teams is that they want return home games and with no football revenue we can't afford that.
Considering this is our 6th straight year in the tourney, I do not think the AD and administration sees any reason to change a thing.
Go Warriors.
Those five or so brutal brutal cupcakes may have nearly cost us this year.
Quote from: Ners on March 13, 2011, 06:18:20 PM
Idiotic in many ways - our RPI gets destroyed due to playing the Centenary's, Miss Valley State, etc. We just need to schedule more 100-175 teams in the non conference schedule..our RPI would jump roughly 15-20 spots.
Yup. While winning more games would help, it's not the competition of the top teams that we play that's the problem. We're going to beat a team like Centenary or a team like Southern Methodist at home. But there's a big difference come March when you see the 342 RPI against the 206.
Right are we really saying we could not do better then Centanary who is dropping down to division 2!!!!
Or...win more games. Th other path to a good RPI.
UAB ... RPI 72.
Beat Vandy, Wisc or Gonzaga and the rest of the OOC doesn't matter.
Don't necessarily need to improve the schedule. Heck, MU played one of the best schedules this year I can remember. They need to get better at gaming the schedule. Play against RPI 220 cupcakes instead of RPI 320 cupcakes, for example. We'll still win those games, it'll say not more about how good the team is and the fans will be no more eager to shell out money to see them, but it'll improve the RPI.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 13, 2011, 06:28:10 PM
Don't necessarily need to improve the schedule. Heck, MU played one of the best schedules this year I can remember. They need to get better at gaming the schedule. Play against RPI 220 cupcakes instead of RPI 320 cupcakes, for example. We'll still win those games, it'll say not more about how good the team is and the fans will be no more eager to shell out money to see them, but it'll improve the RPI.
+100
Our upper-level opponents are fine, maybe even stronger than they need to be. It's the bottom end that kills us.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 13, 2011, 06:28:10 PM
Don't necessarily need to improve the schedule. Heck, MU played one of the best schedules this year I can remember. They need to get better at gaming the schedule. Play against RPI 220 cupcakes instead of RPI 320 cupcakes, for example. We'll still win those games, it'll say not more about how good the team is and the fans will be no more eager to shell out money to see them, but it'll improve the RPI.
+1 that's exactly what I mean.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 13, 2011, 06:23:36 PM
Or...win more games. Th other path to a good RPI.
+1000!
Wins over Wisconsin, Vandy, Gonzaga and/or Duke would really help that non-conf RPI.
Agree that we must upgrade our non conference schedule.
Sorry but the schedule is fine. We got in with 14 loses. Lost nearly every opportunity we had in the Non-con. How many more chances do you want.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 13, 2011, 06:28:10 PM
Don't necessarily need to improve the schedule. Heck, MU played one of the best schedules this year I can remember. They need to get better at gaming the schedule. Play against RPI 220 cupcakes instead of RPI 320 cupcakes, for example. We'll still win those games, it'll say not more about how good the team is and the fans will be no more eager to shell out money to see them, but it'll improve the RPI.
Given that Marquette seems to have been playing these ultra cupcakes every year for a long time now to simply get paydays, can this even be avoided?
I'm far from being skilled in knowing how schedules get put together, but is it harder to schedule just home games with those not very good, but not absolutely brutal teams? Are those type of teams also looking for only a payday by playing at MU without expecting any return visit by us at their place?
To take the "if" out of the bid process we need a better non conference schedule or place higher in BE. I would think playing a slightly tougher schedule is easier path to removing the "if".
Quote from: Ners on March 13, 2011, 06:18:20 PM
Idiotic in many ways - our RPI gets destroyed due to playing the Centenary's, Miss Valley State, etc. We just need to schedule more 100-175 teams in the non conference schedule..our RPI would jump roughly 15-20 spots.
Speaking of idiotic, you schedule these games 2-4 years in advance you have no idea how these teams will improve or get worse during the course of those years. 14 losses dumb*ss. Beat gonzaga and vandy and I'd bet our RPI would be in the 40s.
Next year our RPI will improve due to not playing a 1 seed neutral, 4 seed home, 5 seed road and 11 seed neutral and losing all of them. We will likely emerge from next year's pre-conference slate with 1 loss maximum, albiet to vastly inferior teams, and it will do wonders for our RPI. Which is why RPI is a sham.
72 SOS?
You guys are all missing the whole key. How about not losing 4 home games?? Losing at home CRUSHES your RPI. Take care of business on your own floor, and those non conference cupcakes would not have even been a factor.
This is probably the dumbest bracket ever assembled. There is NO logic to their choices. March Madness refers to the selection committee.
Quote from: El Duderino on March 13, 2011, 06:52:10 PM
Given that Marquette seems to have been playing these ultra cupcakes every year for a long time now to simply get paydays, can this even be avoided?
I'm far from being skilled in knowing how schedules get put together, but is it harder to schedule just home games with those not very good, but not absolutely brutal teams? Are those type of teams also looking for only a payday by playing at MU without expecting any return visit by us at their place?
Disagree...this year's out of conference SOS was brutal. Our out of conference SOS was 282 compared to all other teams.
We've done a much better job in years past relative to other teams (not comparing year over year, but within that year against the competition).
2011 2822010 149
2009 163
2008 200
2007 238
2006 172
2005 223 (included NIT)
2004 220 (included NIT)
2003 54 (that includes our NCAA games which brought it up considerably)
Quote from: muguru on March 13, 2011, 07:04:38 PM
You guys are all missing the whole key. How about not losing 4 home games?? Losing at home CRUSHES your RPI. Take care of business on your own floor, and those non conference cupcakes would not have even been a factor.
Penn State lost five home games, including games to Maryland and Maine.
RPI 40.
Tennessee lost eight home games.
RPI 36.
Georgia lost five home games.
RPI 46.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 13, 2011, 07:09:41 PM
Disagree...this year's out of conference SOS was brutal. Our out of conference SOS was 282 compared to all other teams.
We've done a much better job in years past relative to other teams (not comparing year over year, but within that year against the competition).
2011 282
2010 149
2009 163
2008 200
2007 238
2006 172
2005 223 (included NIT)
2004 220 (included NIT)
2003 54 (that includes our NCAA games which brought it up considerably)
The problem with the non conference schedule was we had 6 of 11 games against teams ranked between 291- and 343..that destroyed the ranking..
Quote from: esotericmindguy on March 13, 2011, 06:55:00 PM
Speaking of idiotic, you schedule these games 2-4 years in advance you have no idea how these teams will improve or get worse during the course of those years. 14 losses dumb*ss. Beat gonzaga and vandy and I'd bet our RPI would be in the 40s.
Most of the non-conference games are not scheduled 2 to 4 years in advance. In fact, many of them are done right now and over the next 3 months. I used to watch Mike Rice go through this. Yes, there are certainly some games that are several years in advance, like the pre season tournaments, but many of the cupcakes are scheduled in the same calendar year.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 13, 2011, 07:01:04 PM
ESPN bracketology show had them at 72.
ESPN is wrong. ESPN Selection show has them where I placed them. In fact, Hubert Davis opined that this is the reason they got in because they know how to game the system and schedule to the RPI.
As does Warren Nolan, RPI Forecast, CollegeRPI, etc...all of them place UAB at 31 or 32.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
Quote from: muguru on March 13, 2011, 07:04:38 PM
You guys are all missing the whole key. How about not losing 4 home games?? Losing at home CRUSHES your RPI. Take care of business on your own floor, and those non conference cupcakes would not have even been a factor.
Yes, but winning on the road is equally valuable. Losses in general are also a killer. 14 losses is going to kill the RPI. Throw in a really bad non conference SOS and it hurts.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 13, 2011, 06:23:36 PM
Or...win more games. Th other path to a good RPI.
Bingo.
Win one of the KC games, or the Vandy game, and that number shoots up. Hold on at UL, same deal.
If they had two more road/neutral wins, the RPI wouldn't be talked about right now.
If they would have played Michigan State's non-conference schedule, they'd be hovering near .500 and waiting on the NIT.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 13, 2011, 07:01:04 PM
ESPN bracketology show had them at 72.
I was just watching ESPN Bracketology on the DVR .. they had their SOS as 72. RPI was 31.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on March 13, 2011, 08:08:51 PM
I was just watching ESPN Bracketology on the DVR .. they had their SOS as 72. RPI was 31.
My mistake.
Guys..both are a factor...of course you want to win more games, if we win a few more games, tweak and improve our NC schedule and win more home games that is how we will get to a preferable seed of like 4 or 5 one day. Say the NC sched was a little better and we beat UW and Cincy at home, so two home losses instead of 4, how much better would our seed be right now???
Our Non Conf SOS was 282 this year. But before we suggest that was our biggest problem, let's look at some other team's numbers.
Ohio State 245 32-2 Seed 1
Pitt 242 27-5 Seed 1
ND 246 26-6 Seed 2
Louisville 286 25-9 Seed 4
Cinn 337 25-8 Seed 6
Clemson 243 21-11 Seed 12
MU 282 20-14 Seed 11
Only 4 selected teams had 14 losses and were invited. All of their records were 19-14.
Penn State 148 19-14 Seed 10
MichSt 32 19-14 Seed 10
USC 55 19-14 Seed 11
Tenn 31 19-14 Seed 9
Obviously our 14 losses had much more to do with our seed than the Non Conf SOS. At best we could have moved up to a 9 but the real damage was done by our numerous losses. Let's not agonize about playing Centenary. We just need to win more games.