All day the commentary on ESPN was whether the BE would get 11 and the talk centered on if MU would make it. Well Lundari just updated and has nova one of the last four BYES in and just avoiding the play-in game.
This means MU is not the BE bubble team, Nova is (according to Lundari)
The announcers were saying Nova gets one of the last 4 byes as of Lunardi's latest. That would make them somewhere between 5th and 8th last team in.
They said on TV Nova is the last of the teams to AVOID the play-in game.
I misread him ... corrected
It would be hard to justify leaving one of us out but not the other. Unless we somehow win 2 more after Providence. I think either both MU and Vill make it or neither. It is looking more like both to me.
We have moved ahead of Villanova!
Quote from: HoopsMalone on March 08, 2011, 10:33:21 PM
It would be hard to justify leaving one of us out but not the other. Unless we somehow win 2 more after Providence. I think either both MU and Vill make it or neither. It is looking more like both to me.
I think we are well ahead of Nova at this point. The way they finished the season is a joke. Yes, we lost 2 down the stretch, but that was on the heels of some wins, including at UConn.
Quote from: StillWarriors on March 08, 2011, 10:49:08 PM
I think we are well ahead of Nova at this point. The way they finished the season is a joke. Yes, we lost 2 down the stretch, but that was on the heels of some wins, including at UConn.
Body of work...last 10 games is no longer a consideration
Quote from: Victor McCormick on March 08, 2011, 11:18:24 PM
Body of work...last 10 games is no longer a consideration
People are human. Losing your last five games counts.
Wait a second...... we're not in the last four in category, and we're not in the last four byes category.... that means a "soft bubble" and the extra bids available had nothing to do with why we'll make the tournament??? We're just good enough with no qualifiers? Awesome!
Quote from: StillWarriors on March 08, 2011, 10:49:08 PM
I think we are well ahead of Nova at this point. The way they finished the season is a joke. Yes, we lost 2 down the stretch, but that was on the heels of some wins, including at UConn.
Though it was in Pennsylvania, they still beat us. The score looks closer than I remember that game actually being. Head to head has to count for something.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on March 09, 2011, 12:11:38 AM
Though it was in Pennsylvania, they still beat us. The score looks closer than I remember that game actually being. Head to head has to count for something.
For BE seedings yes. Not for NCAA seedings
The good news is of the committee does not want 11 BE teams, they now have an option besides us.
Updated S Curve. Says no way Nova doesn't make the tournament. Marquette is one of the "green" teams. From http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6196544
This edition of "Bracket Math" includes all games through Tuesday, March 8. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Let me quickly and directly answer the most pressing question of the day: the Villanova Wildcats are not going to miss the NCAA tournament (and this is coming from a St. Joe's guy!). I know the Wildcats have struggled mightily in the second half of the season and I know no team has ever entered the NCAAs on a five-game losing streak.
But I'm fairly certain none of the other comparisons we could dig up have eight wins over teams currently in the NCAA field (three of which have come during the allegedly fatal slide). The Wildcats, even while losing 10 of 15 games, have gone 3-7 against tournament teams in that span. And there will be plenty of teams in this year's field with a similarly mediocre profile.
Villanova's seed is -- and should be -- very much in doubt, but its selection to the 68-team field is not.
The S-curve
*: Clinched regular-season title and NIT automatic bid if needed
Bold: Projected conference winners (highest remaining conference tournament seed)
CAPS and BOLD: Clinched automatic bid
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 85 percent or better through games of March 8.
YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
ORANGE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S-curve)
The Full S-curve
1-Ohio State* 2-Kansas* 3-Pittsburgh* 4-Duke
8-Texas 7-Brigham Young* 6-North Carolina* 5-Notre Dame
9-Purdue 10-San Diego St 11-Florida* 12-Syracuse
16-St. John's 15-Louisville 14-Kentucky 13-Wisconsin
17-West Virginia 18-Connecticut 19-Georgetown 20-Arizona*
24-Texas A&M 23-Vanderbilt 22-Xavier* 21-Kansas St
25-Cincinnati 26-Temple 27-UCLA 28-UNLV
32-ODU 31-George Mason* 30-Utah State* 29-Missouri
33-Illinois 34-GONZAGA 35-Florida St 36-Washington
40-St. Mary's 39-BUTLER 38-Marquette 37-Tennessee
41-Richmond 42-UAB* 43-Villanova 44-Michigan
48-Virginia Tech 47-Michigan St 46-Boston College 45-Clemson
49-Colorado 50-Georgia 51-BELMONT 52-OAKLAND
56-Kent State* 55-Long Island* 54-Bucknell* 53-Harvard
57-INDIANA ST 58-MOREHEAD ST 59-WOFFORD 60-Long Beach*
64-NC ASHEVILLE 63-Boston U. 62-ST. PETER'S 61-N. Colorado*
65-McNeese State* 66-U. Ark-Little Rock 67-Texas Southern* 68-Bethune Cookman*
72-Washington St 71-Missouri St* 70-Southern Cal 69-Alabama
73-Baylor 74-Nebraska 75-Memphis 76-UTEP
TODAY'S MATH
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 90 percent or better) and you have exactly 39 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 19 spots. All told we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams.
"BUBBLE" (20 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-curve order): 40-St. Mary's, 41-Richmond, 43-Villanova, 44-Michigan, 45-Clemson, 46-Boston College, 47-Michigan St, 48-Virginia Tech, 49-Colorado, 50-Georgia
OUT (10, in S-curve order): 69-Alabama, 70-Southern Cal, 71-Missouri St, 72-Washington St, 73-Baylor, 74-Nebraska, 75-Memphis, 76-UTEP, 77-Penn St, 78-California
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (11), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Horizon League (2), West Coast (2)
NIT QUALIFIERS (8)
• Charleston (Southern)
• Coastal Carolina (Big South)
• Fairfield (MAAC)
• Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
• Milwaukee (Horizon)
• Missouri State (MVC)
• Murray State (OVC)
• Vermont (America East)
5 ahead of Villanova on the S curve!
Quote from: Henry Sugar on March 08, 2011, 11:20:32 PM
People are human. Losing your last five games counts.
It counts as 5 additional losses on your resume. The fact that they came at the end of the season - unless there is a mitigating circumstance (i.e. player injury, suspension, etc.) - is irrelevant.
But I get what you're saying... despite the guidelines that "Last 10/12" is no longer considered, you can't entirely eliminate that fact from a committee member's mindset. While that may be true, at least it probably wouldn't have a significant effect on the process unless two teams' resumes are so similar that the committee has to start looking at "other" criteria to break the tie.
In other words, Nova won't be eliminated from consideration or penalized simply because they lost their last 5, but they might be bumped down a spot in the final s-curve if another team with a very similar resume went 8-2 in their last 10 games. Fortunately for Nova (like MU), very few bubble teams have resumes that can compare, so the last 5 probably won't be a factor.
Anyone else licking their chops about temple/byu?
Quote from: Benny B on March 09, 2011, 12:53:27 PM
In other words, Nova won't be eliminated from consideration or penalized simply because they lost their last 5, but they might be bumped down a spot in the final s-curve if another team with a very similar resume went 8-2 in their last 10 games. Fortunately for Nova (like MU), very few bubble teams have resumes that can compare, so the last 5 probably won't be a factor.
Yeah, I agree with that. My basic point was that, despite it not being a criteria anymore, Villanova is going to be penalized somehow in comparison to a similar resume team.
Quote from: Benny B on March 09, 2011, 12:53:27 PM
It counts as 5 additional losses on your resume. The fact that they came at the end of the season - unless there is a mitigating circumstance (i.e. player injury, suspension, etc.) - is irrelevant.
But I get what you're saying... despite the guidelines that "Last 10/12" is no longer considered, you can't entirely eliminate that fact from a committee member's mindset. While that may be true, at least it probably wouldn't have a significant effect on the process unless two teams' resumes are so similar that the committee has to start looking at "other" criteria to break the tie.
In other words, Nova won't be eliminated from consideration or penalized simply because they lost their last 5, but they might be bumped down a spot in the final s-curve if another team with a very similar resume went 8-2 in their last 10 games. Fortunately for Nova (like MU), very few bubble teams have resumes that can compare, so the last 5 probably won't be a factor.
However, if you read the comments from the time the elimination of the last 12 criterion was announced, it was because major conferences placed all their marquee games at the end of the season.
http://www.aolnews.com/2009/07/01/ncaa-eliminates-useless-component-from-tournament-selection/
In Villanova's case, they did not lose their last five games (and 10 of their final 15) because the TV schedule dictated that they play all their tough games at the end of the season.
I'm not sure there has ever been an example of a team that has so dramatically transformed themselves from clearly deserving to clearly undeserving as visibly has Villanova has this year. I don't know how you separate this from their body of work.
Quote from: DJO's Pump Fake on March 09, 2011, 12:58:08 PM
Anyone else licking their chops about temple/byu?
That's pretty much my
dream scenario. Too bad the seeding predictions are never right. We'd smoke Temple and give Jimmer the Marshon treatment.
What was left of Nebraska's bubble just popped. Lost their Big 12 tourney opener to Okie State.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 09, 2011, 01:51:54 PM
What was left of Nebraska's bubble just popped. Lost their Big 12 tourney opener to Okie State.
I'm guess RPI forecast lowers there 99% chance of getting in.
Quote from: Pakuni on March 09, 2011, 01:51:54 PM
What was left of Nebraska's bubble just popped. Lost their Big 12 tourney opener to Okie State.
Big help for Nova and the Big 10/11/12 teams like MSU, Michigan, and PSU.