There's only about a 0.01% chance of this happening, but if they run the table, knocking off teams like St. John's, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville/ND in the process, would they "steal" a bid from MU in the process? Or would a team lower on the S curve get their bid stolen? If people are worried about the committee taking 11, I'd be shocked to see them take 12. Or does conference affiliation really not matter?
For what it's worth, here is Seton Hall's path and their record against the potential teams:
Round 1: Rutgers
Lost at home, 66-60
Round 2: St. John's
Won at home, 84-70
Round 3: Syracuse
Won at Syracuse, 90-68
Lost at home 61-56 without Hazell
Round 4: Pitt, UConn, or Georgetown
Lost at Pitt, 74-53
Lost to UConn at home, 61-59
Lost to Georgetown (with Wright) at home, 80-75
Round 5: ND, Louisville, Cincy, Villanova, WVU, MU, or Providence
Lost at ND, 60-48
Lost at Louisville 73-54 without Hazell
Lost at Cincinnati 70-53 without Hazell
Lost at home to Villanova 60-57
Lost at WVU 56-44
Lost at Marquette 73-64
Won at home against Marquette 85-72
Won at home against Providence
If they end up beating St. John's and Syracuse again, avenging a narrow loss to UConn or Georgetown, then doing the same to Villanova for the championship, how will that affect MU, with the given that we beat Providence? Are we still in?
Damn! If only I had the time to think up stuff like this. On the plus side, we beat Seton Hall at home, and their run would certainly make that win - and our loss to them which is about as close to a bad loss (although not very close) as MU has - both look a lot better.
If not Seton Hall, then St. John's or Cincinnati since they beat us at home too for the same RPI improvement reasons.
Interesting question, especially since it would also me that it pushes us back in the "we've only lost to NCAA tournament bound teams" category (and we've beat a few of them too - including SHU).
Assuming we beat Providence, I think we're still in. But hard to tell.
Are you really asking hypothetically if Seton Hall wins their next 5 games - how does that affect MU?
Are you sure you don't want that broken down combinatorially by each prospective opponent in games 2, 3 , 4 and 5? it may make a difference pending who each opponent it is..
wow...
None of it matters. At this point, the only team that will have an impact of any significance on what happens to MU on Sunday, is MU.
Quote from: LittleMurs on March 08, 2011, 01:37:53 PM
Damn! If only I had the time to think up stuff like this. On the plus side, we beat Seton Hall at home, and their run would certainly make that win - and our loss to them which is about as close to a bad loss (although not very close) as MU has - both look a lot better.
If not Seton Hall, then St. John's or Cincinnati since they beat us at home too for the same RPI improvement reasons.
If RPI improvement is the name of the game, cheer for SHU, ND and UCONN since their wins are double-weighted on MU's RPI. Whether a team beat you at home or on the road makes no difference to the Opponent's Record component of RPI.
I'm with Lunardi in that Marquette is already in. If we beat Providence, there's really no debating our inclusion. So if Seton Hall wins the tourney, the Big East will get 12 bids. Simple as that. We won't get dropped an extra 10 spots or so down the S-Curve because a team we played twice and beat once earned an auto-bid.
Seton Hall will not win the tourney, however St. John's could!
Quote from: Benny B on March 08, 2011, 01:48:06 PM
If RPI improvement is the name of the game, cheer for SHU, ND and UCONN since their wins are double-weighted on MU's RPI. Whether a team beat you at home or on the road makes no difference to the Opponent's Record component of RPI.
I did not know that! Thank you, Benny B.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 08, 2011, 02:32:09 PM
Seton Hall will not win the tourney, however St. John's could!
Madison Square Garden is their home court.
and my topic was meant to go nowhere, they wont win
I doubt they win it, but I could easily see them making a run to the semis. They should win today and hammered both St. John's and Syracuse. When Hazell is hot Seton Hall is a completely different team. If they had him at 100% the Big East might be getting 12 bids anyway.
Hazell 3 pointer to tie it with one second left. OT.
WOW! Anyone watching this game???? Hazell just drained a cold-blooded 26 footer before the buzzer to send it to OT!
Quote from: SaintPaulWarrior on March 08, 2011, 03:32:16 PM
Hazell 3 pointer to tie it with one second left. OT.
WHY DON'T THEY FOUL these guys before they take it. Oh well. Damn, a big Mike Rice fan. Hope they can pull it out.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 08, 2011, 02:32:09 PM
Seton Hall will not win the tourney, however St. John's could!
Thanks for the information. Hence the 0.01% chance I gave it, and the "complete hypothetical" I referred to it as.
Our long national hypothetical nightmare is over! One less thing for me to worry about!
Awesome game, I love March.
So Seton Hall losing to Rutgers...does that inspire confidence considering we got destroyed by them just a few days ago?
Quote from: Jamailman on March 08, 2011, 03:33:17 PM
WOW! Anyone watching this game???? Hazell just drained a cold-blooded 26 footer before the buzzer to send it to OT!
Ya got to love Hazell as a player, but what I
really love about him is that he's a senior. I'm waiving bye bye to this dude with a BIG smile on my face.
Quote from: Jamailman on March 08, 2011, 04:01:18 PM
One less thing for me to worry about!
But do we need to worry about Rutgers winning it all now!?!? :D
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 08, 2011, 04:03:13 PM
So Seton Hall losing to Rutgers...does that inspire confidence considering we got destroyed by them just a few days ago?
Hell no, we'll be fine due to that brave sacrifice made by Jim Hague in allowing Buzz to thoroughly go over the Seton Hall loss with the team immediately after the game.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 08, 2011, 04:03:13 PM
So Seton Hall losing to Rutgers...does that inspire confidence considering we got destroyed by them just a few days ago?
You're right - MU, St. John's and Syracuse have decided to forgo the Big East and NCAA tournament due to being destroyed by Seton Hall and losing all confidence in themselves.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 08, 2011, 04:05:28 PM
But do we need to worry about Rutgers winning it all now!?!? :D
Good point! Can't stand these dirty (potential) bid thieves!
0.0001% potential.
Quote from: Jamailman on March 08, 2011, 04:12:00 PM
You're right - MU, St. John's and Syracuse have decided to forgo the Big East and NCAA tournament due to being destroyed by Seton Hall and losing all confidence in themselves.
And South Florida, DePaul, Providence, and Rutgers...oh wait. Strike Rutgers, I guess it didn't ruin their confidence when they lost AT HOME to Seton Hall.
I figured it was good for MU, if Seton Hall won two or three games. Seton Hall losing makes our loss to them look worse and we played them twice. The prefect day would have been Uconn, Seton Hall, South Florida and MU winning. I think South Florida winning helps MU. If MU wins I want South Florida to win. If MU losses, then I want Villanova to win. I have to believe that MU is going to win, so I am rooting for South Florida.
I have already made the decision that if MU gets down more than 12 points, I will be turning on the UWM game. I refuse to suffer through another melt down.
Quote from: bilsu on March 08, 2011, 04:20:47 PM
I figured it was good for MU, if Seton Hall won two or three games. Seton Hall losing makes our loss to them look worse and we played them twice.
All joking aside - agree with that. Though if we "just" win, I think MU is fine.
Aside from rooting for every other bubble team to lose, the only thing good for MU is to win. Just WIN. Please. And, just for my own personal info, what are the %ages of us running the table and winning it all (the BET)??
Quote from: lab_warrior on March 08, 2011, 05:24:15 PM
Aside from rooting for every other bubble team to lose, the only thing good for MU is to win. Just WIN. Please. And, just for my own personal info, what are the %ages of us running the table and winning it all (the BET)??
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1537
Apparently 1.5%
76.4% chance tonight, 32.1% chance tomorrow night.
And I was being too harsh on Seton Hall - I guess they had a 0.2% chance of winning it all!
Just have to shut down Marshon Brooks again.
guess we don't have to worry about the what if Seton Hall wins the BEast doomsday scenario...
damn, that was close...
Quote from: madtownwarrior on March 08, 2011, 11:09:44 PM
guess we don't have to worry about the what if Seton Hall wins the BEast doomsday scenario...
damn, that was close...
I'm still kind of nervous about South Florida getting hot.
Quote from: marquette09 on March 08, 2011, 11:13:16 PM
I'm still kind of nervous about South Florida getting hot.
Interesting that South Fla. and Rutgers advanced. Pretty low seeds. That is why they play the games.
Quote from: willie warrior on March 09, 2011, 08:46:38 AM
Interesting that South Fla. and Rutgers advanced. Pretty low seeds. That is why they play the games.
Further proof that the Big East is by far the best conference top to bottom. Aside from DePaul, every team is dangerous.