I can't find a link to it online, but every year the Chicago Tribune has their horse handicapper predict the scores of the NCAA tournament. He runs a computer program based on the team's abilities to put up points, quality of competition, coaching intangibles. Marquette is better in all areas (3 of 4) against MSU except for coaching intangibles in his analysis.
Yes, it's a horse handicapper, but it is also a statistical analysis and he usually has some interesting results. Last year he predicted a Marquette loss, and two years ago he predicted the championship game (Illinois / UNC - although he got the winner wrong).
Here's to hoping that his analysis is right again!
He then has us getting smoked by 20 to UNC.
He obviously didn't factor that we'll have McNeal back for that game. ;)