I did a lot of scenarios, and am pretty sure this is all right. Feel free to check my logic or add some.
If we win out...
If we win out AND Cincy beats Georgetown, we can do no worse than #6. We can also get #5 if DePaul wins at Cuse OR hell freezes over (whichever comes first).
If we win out AND Georgetown wins at Cincy AND Uconn splits (@WVU, ND), we get 7th place.
The worst we can do winning out is 8th. This only happens if Georgetown beats Cincy AND Uconn wins out (@WVU, ND).
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If we beat Cincy but lose at Seton Hall......
If we beat UC but lose @SHU, we clinch the Bye (no worse than #8) UNLESS both Nova wins @Pitt AND Georgetown wins @UC. We then would fall to 9th, 10th, or 11th. If Nova loses and only GT wins @UC, we still get 8th place and the Bye.
If we beat UC and lose @SHU, our worst case scenario is a 5-way tie for 7th (with WVU in 6th). After tiebreakers, it goes respectively... Uconn, Nova, Cincy, Georgetown, and MU in 11th. This only occurs if the relevant home teams all win except Pitt (UC over GT, WVU over Uconn, WVU over Lou, Uconn over ND, and Nova over @Pitt). Improbable for all of these to happen, but it's possible.
Pretty obvious, but we should be rooting heavily for Pitt over Nova this weekend. That's the major potential wrench for our seeding if we end up splitting.
What's our worst case scenario? What's the lowest we could be if we lose both?
Quote from: mug644 on March 01, 2011, 12:44:05 AMWhat's our worst case scenario? What's the lowest we could be if we lose both?
If we lose both we finish 9-9, potentially tied with Villanova, who has the head-to-head tiebreaker on us, and we finish 11th. Our range of finishing positions is 5th-11th, though 5th is very unlikely.
Quote from: wardle2wade on March 01, 2011, 12:35:23 AM
Pretty obvious, but we should be rooting heavily for Pitt over Nova this weekend. That's the major potential wrench for our seeding if we end up splitting.
PITT will destroy Nova. Villanova has never impressed me at any point this year and teams are exposing them for who they really are. A middling team that's struggling to find their offensive identity.