I know it sounds crazy with wins over Texas and Tenn. but consider this:
UConn could lose out with tough road games at Cinn. and WVU followed by one more tough home date with the Irish. Certainly possible that they drop all three. If they do, they are 8-10 in conference, under NCAA probation, and maybe headed to the NIT as the BEast 11th team riding a 5 game losing streak prior to the BEast tourney. Thoughts?
Lotta ifs in that scenario.
Quote from: jsglow on February 26, 2011, 10:57:45 AM
I know it sounds crazy with wins over Texas and Tenn. but consider this:
UConn could lose out with tough road games at Cinn. and WVU followed by one more tough home date with the Irish. Certainly possible that they drop all three. If they do, they are 8-10 in conference, under NCAA probation, and maybe headed to the NIT as the BEast 11th team riding a 5 game losing streak prior to the BEast tourney. Thoughts?
It would be pretty unprecendented that a team goes undefeated in the non-con with wins over Kentucky, at Texas, Michigan State, and Tennesee yet still does not make the tourney. Especially when you include conference wins at Marquette, Nova and Georgetown. But I guess if they get blown out the last three games and lose the first game at the BET it's possible.
The victory over Michigan State isn't as big today as it was back in November/December.
It would cheapen our featured road win.
Quote from: jsglow on February 26, 2011, 10:57:45 AM
I know it sounds crazy with wins over Texas and Tenn. but consider this:
UConn could lose out with tough road games at Cinn. and WVU followed by one more tough home date with the Irish. Certainly possible that they drop all three. If they do, they are 8-10 in conference, under NCAA probation, and maybe headed to the NIT as the BEast 11th team riding a 5 game losing streak prior to the BEast tourney. Thoughts?
In that situation, yes, probably they would miss the NCAA. However the chances of them dropping 4 in a row (including us) are pretty slim. They are just too good. They will win at least one of those games, and they will get in at 9-9 with their non-conference body of work.
Quote from: jsglow on February 26, 2011, 10:57:45 AM
I know it sounds crazy with wins over Texas and Tenn. but consider this:
UConn could lose out with tough road games at Cinn. and WVU followed by one more tough home date with the Irish. Certainly possible that they drop all three. If they do, they are 8-10 in conference, under NCAA probation, and maybe headed to the NIT as the BEast 11th team riding a 5 game losing streak prior to the BEast tourney. Thoughts?
I almost posted the same thing yesterday, but figured people would be upset to take something away from our biggest win of the season.
The other factor here is that the NCAA now owns the NIT. Its not farfetched to think that they may be thinking of ways to maximize attendance in NYC, and a Big East team would be an ideal way to accomplish that goal. My guess is they were hoping at the start of the year that St. Johns would get an invite and an easy path to the championships.
Quote from: Victor McCormick on February 26, 2011, 01:50:02 PM
In that situation, yes, probably they would miss the NCAA. However the chances of them dropping 4 in a row (including us) are pretty slim. They are just too good. They will win at least one of those games, and they will get in at 9-9 with their non-conference body of work.
But look at who they have to play:
@Cincinnati, who has been playing well of late.
@West Virginia, who has two wins over top 10 programs (Notre Dame and Purdue)
Notre Dame, in 2nd place, and has shown they are capable of beating good teams on the road (Pitt).
I don't think its a sure thing that they win any of those games.
I think they make it even if they lose all those games.
Has a team with a losing conference record ever made the tourney (outside of winning their conference tournament)? I have to think that the Selection Committee would not select UConn if they finished 8-10. Only way an 8-10 UConn would make the Big Dance is if they won the BEast Tournament.
Quote from: DCWarriors04 on February 26, 2011, 02:56:23 PM
Has a team with a losing conference record ever made the tourney (outside of winning their conference tournament)? I have to think that the Selection Committee would not select UConn if they finished 8-10. Only way an 8-10 UConn would make the Big Dance is if they won the BEast Tournament.
Yes, it's happened, multiple times I believe. If there was ever a team with the resume to get in with a losing conference record, it's UConn. That win at Texas was one of the best wins of the year.
Quote from: babytownfrolics on February 26, 2011, 03:00:16 PM
Yes, it's happened, multiple times I believe. If there was ever a team with the resume to get in with a losing conference record, it's UConn. That win at Texas was one of the best wins of the year.
Definitely happened. Mayland was 7-9 in '08-09. Arkansas was 7-9 in '06-07. Arizona was 8-10 in '07-08.
Quote from: Marquette84 on February 26, 2011, 01:55:51 PM
I almost posted the same thing yesterday, but figured people would be upset to take something away from our biggest win of the season.
Rest assured you would have blasted if you posted this yesterday or any other day....someone else posts this, no big deal.
Quote from: Marquette84 on February 26, 2011, 02:01:44 PM
But look at who they have to play:
@Cincinnati, who has been playing well of late.
@West Virginia, who has two wins over top 10 programs (Notre Dame and Purdue)
Notre Dame, in 2nd place, and has shown they are capable of beating good teams on the road (Pitt).
I don't think its a sure thing that they win any of those games.
I know who they have to play, and I repeat, there is no way they drop 4 games in a row. It won't happen.
Kemba is a national player. He'll do his part and so will the committee.
I do not believe the Big East will get 11 bids. Uconn is in trouble. Villanova is in trouble also, They have lost a lot of games lately and their last two games are at Notre Dame and Pittsburg. Any team that finishes 9-9 is in trouble and has to win the first round game to get in. 10 wins gets you in.
Quote from: bilsu on February 26, 2011, 09:37:10 PM
I do not believe the Big East will get 11 bids. Uconn is in trouble. Villanova is in trouble also, They have lost a lot of games lately and their last two games are at Notre Dame and Pittsburg. Any team that finishes 9-9 is in trouble and has to win the first round game to get in. 10 wins gets you in.
Neither of those teams are in any trouble. Their overall resumes will get them in easily.
Quote from: bilsu on February 26, 2011, 09:37:10 PM
I do not believe the Big East will get 11 bids. Uconn is in trouble. Villanova is in trouble also, They have lost a lot of games lately and their last two games are at Notre Dame and Pittsburg. Any team that finishes 9-9 is in trouble and has to win the first round game to get in. 10 wins gets you in.
Villy is in a tough spot too but already has their 9th win. I agree that 9-9 gets both Villy and UConn in the tourney. I also believe that 9-9 does not make MU a lock because we did not get a top flight non-con win. Still, Bucknell and UWM are looking better every day. 10-8 locks us in my opinion. Take care of business today and we're getting close.
The way I look at it is this: Is UConn one of the 64 best teams in the country? Without a doubt, yes. They will make the tournament.
Quote from: marquettewade3 on February 27, 2011, 07:57:16 AM
The way I look at it is this: Is UConn one of the 64 best teams in the country? Without a doubt, yes. They will make the tournament.
I agree with you that UCONN gets in, but this comment is a general pet peeve of mine. If you are an at-large, you have to be around one of the top 50 teams. The top 68 don't make it. Due to the mid-major automatic bids, that takes up 15-20 bids that aren't in the "Top 68" in the county.
I think UCONN will not lose all of their remaining games, although they seem to be struggling right now.
Suggestion: We need to get fired up about MU getting into the Dance. Win our last 3, which is possible, but not highly likely, and that should do it. 10-8 and we will need to win 1 BEast tourney game.
Three big tests remain with the most likely loss at Seton Hall. We better win by at least 12 today, and not play poorly.
Quote from: marquettewade3 on February 27, 2011, 07:57:16 AM
The way I look at it is this: Is UConn one of the 64 best teams in the country? Without a doubt, yes. They will make the tournament.
I think they WERE one of the 64 best teams back in early January.
But something has happened along the way--at 3-5 in their last 8 games, now I'm not convinced. If they lose the next three in a row, I would argue that they are no longer tournament worthy.
Quote from: cheebs09 on February 27, 2011, 10:12:34 AM
I agree with you that UCONN gets in, but this comment is a general pet peeve of mine. If you are an at-large, you have to be around one of the top 50 teams. The top 68 don't make it. Due to the mid-major automatic bids, that takes up 15-20 bids that aren't in the "Top 68" in the county.
I do understand what you are saying and I figured when I posted someone would mention it. There are certainly limitations due to the design of selection but, in my opinion, they should be in the tournament. I do like the fact mid-majors get in even though, as you point out, they may not necessarily be Top 68. Look no further than Northern Iowa last year.
Quote from: Marquette84 on February 27, 2011, 10:26:20 AM
I think they WERE one of the 64 best teams back in early January.
But something has happened along the way--at 3-5 in their last 8 games, now I'm not convinced. If they lose the next three in a row, I would argue that they are no longer tournament worthy.
I agree they haven't won games as of late but it's not as though they have lost to poor teams: Louisville (x2), Syracuse, St. John's, and Marquette. All of whom, except maybe us, will be in the NCAA tournament. I also agree they were playing much better earlier in the year when they beat MSU (who has since really sucked it up) and Kentucky. They are 3-6 against ranked opponents in Big East play (I am including St. John's as being ranked since they are #25 now). Kind of depends on how you look at it. You make a good argument.
Moot point. UConn wins
UCONN beat UC today on the road.
And since that performance on the road that night in late February, they dominated college basketball and won the BEast and the NCAA. Remind me not to get too excited or upset next year over a big Jaunary/February MU win or loss.
Congrats to the national champions.
Quote from: Victor McCormick on February 26, 2011, 01:50:02 PM
The chances of them dropping 4 in a row (including us) are pretty slim. They are just too good. They will win at least one of those games, and they will get in at 9-9 with their non-conference body of work.
Bump!
timely! Looks like a lot of our experts shouldn't be betting their mortgages anytime soon.
Congrats UConn!!