Marquette’s big 3 outrebound entire Seton Hall team; grading 12 teams chasing MU for NCAA
Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)
MUs dominant inside performance resulted in a 73-64 win vs. Seton Hall, which gets a "B" grade as a win that is not a resume-builder (A), but gets a team closer to an NCAA bid. Here is how the 12 teams right behind MU graded today, with a "D" for teams that hurt themselves and fell further behind MU and an "F" being a game that could kill off a bubble contender.
Marquette â€" Grade "B" â€" 73-64 win vs. Seton Hall
1. Minnesota â€" No Game (team just behind MU in Forecast RPI)
2. UCLA â€" No Game
3. Michigan State â€" B â€" big 61-57 win at home against Illinois in a toss-up game
4. Baylor - F â€" lost an embarrassing 69-78 game at home vs. Texas Tech, who they were favored to beat by 13
5. Xavier â€" D â€" a very underwhelming 79-72 win at home against Fordham, favored by 22
6. Georgia â€" A â€" won by 6 at Tennessee, where they were 6 point underdogs
7. UNLV - B â€" went into Colorado State and won 68-61, despite only being a 2-point favorite
8. Washington State â€" D â€" were upset 69-71 at Arizona State, after being a 4-point favorite
9. Oklahoma State -D â€" missed a golden opportunity with a 66-67 loss at home to Texas A&M, the exact result predicted by Forecast RPI, but a golden opportunity missed
10. Nebraska â€" A â€" stunned Texas 70-67 after being 6-point underdog
11. Colorado State â€" F â€" lost what could prove to be a play-in game at home to UNLV 68-61
12. Boston College = B â€" despite losing 46-48 at UNC, certainly passed the eyeball test after being a 12-point underdog (based on Sagarin all 12 teams including BC would have to pass MU to knock MU out, BUT tourney upsets could lower that number)
MUs dominant bigs one step closer to NCAA
As usual, Marquette’s dominant centers pushed around a weaker team as starter Chris Otule and reserves Davante Gardner and Jae Crowder combined for 23 rebounds in 63 minutes. Seton Hall’s entire team grabbed 21 rebounds in 400 minutes. Otule also went 5-5 from the floor, while Gardner and Crowder combined for 9-12 from the line to overcome terrible first half free throws.
Like most foes who find themselves too small to content with MUs big men, Seton Hall’s only chance was to go for steals and throw up 3-pointers, especially star Jeremy Hazell who hit 4 of 12 to break the all-time Big East record of 189 threes. Two Pirates frontline players fouled out in a feeble attempt against the giant MU Warriors.
1970s squad?
What was this, a 1970s game? I thought our problem was no bigs.
But tonight Buzz seemed intent on getting the ball inside to Otule early and often, even starting the better passer Junior Cadougan to insist on working the ball in time and time again. When Otule got in foul trouble after a blistering start, the inside dominance continued and MU one a very nice 73-64 win to help their NCAA bid.
MU gets "B" to improve NCAA chances vs. 12 teams chasing them
If I had to grade MU and the 12 teams that are chasing them for the NCAA bid, I’d give MU a “B†for a better than expected performance. Forecast RPI favored MU by 9 based on Sagarin’s ratings, but as I noted, Seton Hall has actually been at least 5 points better than their average since Jeremy Hazell returned, so really a 4-point win would have been closer to expectation â€" and MU took care of business.
In grading the 12 teams chasing MU, Baylor and Colorado had crushing performance that will drop them well behind MU. MU also put some distance between themselves and Xavier, Washington State and Oklahoma State, who fell below Forecast’s RPI expection. (Grade D for each).
However, Georgia and Nebraska were the huge winners today, so both likely caught MU today with Grade-A performances. Michigan State, UNLV and Boston College all kept pace with MU with similar B-Grade performances.
However, the MU win is significant not because it was an upset, but because of what it says about the rest of the season. First, since Hazell returned Seton Hall has been exactly as good as Cincy, so tonight’s performance gives strong hope that MU shook off the 3-game slide and can protect home court against Cincy. Also, teams average doing 8-points better on their home court then when they play teams on the road, so the 9-point win could translate to a 1-point win at Seton Hall to close the season, and MU could finish 10-8.
Which is not to say MU doesn’t have a chance in all the rest of their games â€" as UConn’s recent slide has them as only a 5-point favorite when MU travels there.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/marquettes-big-3-outrebound-entire.html
Stats for the game by Half
1H (MU vs SHU)
Efficiency (1.07 vs 0.97)
eFG% (59% vs 55%)
TO% (21% vs 18%)
OR% (41% vs 13%)
FTR (35% vs 7%)
1H stats - decent first half defense overall, but the eFG% defense was sloppy. Great offensive eFG% and OR%. Bad TO%.
1H (MU vs SHU)
Efficiency (1.21 vs 0.99)
eFG% (58% vs 47%)
TO% (26% vs 12%)
OR% (33% vs 25%)
FTR (80% vs 31%)
2H stats - similar defensively in the 2H. Forced fewer turnovers and didn't dominate the boards as much. However, much better on the eFG%. Again, MU was sloppy with the ball, but shot well and made up the biggest ppp difference on FTR.
Awesome HS!
Was able to make the game this weekend, had a great time. After being there I would have thought that we did better on the eFG in the first half as Otule was just killing it inside. I was very surprised on one possession that Seton Hall triple teamed him in the post when he got the entry pass. Chris kicked it back out, and MU found the open man for an easy bucket from there. After that possession Seton Hall went to the zone to make MU shoot over the top - that must have been when our eFG took a nose dive for the first half - but it still was good.
How hard would it be to find eFG for when Otule was in the game, versus out of the game?
Holy Cow. A post and stats that show we dominatewd a game with our bigs.
Kudos to both Otule and Gardner. Keep up the good work, big fellas!
Shifting to a "Bigs Focus"....
- MU's points in the paint (PIP) are up +32%
- Opponents' PIP are down -5.2%
- The gap vs. our opponents on PIP has given MU +282 extra points, or 10.4 points per game
- PIP+FTM combo is up 21.5% while our opponents' stat is down -3.0%
- MU is the best in the BE play at preventing offensive rebounds/game (note: MU also is 2nd worst in opponents' eFG%), and 2nd to Pitt in Def Reb and Opponents OReb Rates
- Otule is 5th in block %
- In seven of our losses, MU tied (just UCONN) or lost the PIP battle
- MU also lost/tied in the PIP battle in close wins at UWM (tied), USF and Rutgers
Feeding the post and going taller with more minutes has changed the complexion of many of our games. Extended runs of small ball has hurt us this season. This is evolving as the season winds down...let's hope MU is on the peak incline.
Quote from: lurch91 on February 21, 2011, 02:38:07 PM
After being there I would have thought that we did better on the eFG in the first half as Otule was just killing it inside.
...
How hard would it be to find eFG for when Otule was in the game, versus out of the game?
59% in the first half is pretty good, and I consider our eFG% pretty much equal for both halves.
Figuring out the math with and without Chris is not /that/ hard. Basically, you just have to run through the play by play data and manually enter in the data for when he's in and out. My problem is that I've tried it twice and keep getting distracted. Then I forget where I am with data entry.
If someone else wants to get the following (FGM, FGA, 3FGM, 3FGA, FTM, FTA, OR, DR, TO) for w/wo Otule, the formulas are pretty mechanical.
http://www.gomarquette.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/mugame27.html
I'm glad we won but suggest that this result has any bearing on our rematch game @ Seton Hall is really a reach. We killed ND here and still lost there. UW got beat at Mishigan State and then destroyed them a few weeks later.
One game has no bearing on another.
Also no matter what RPI forecast says Xavier is not chasing us. They are well ahead of us on virtually every S curve out there.
RPI's projected seeds are really kind of a joke. They have 3 BE teams as 1 seeds........anybody think that has even a remote chance of happening?
This site has been the most accurate......http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/