So far this week ..
#1 Kansas lost to KSU
#2 Texas loses to Nebraska (ouch!)
#4 Pitt loses to SJU
#7 NDU loses to WVU
#9 Georgetown loses to Uconn
#10 Wisconsin loses to Purdue
That's six of the top 10 just this week.
Who is #1 next week? #3 tOSU again? (they just lost 8 days ago)
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Thinking out loud ...
San Diego State was #6 this week at 25-1 and are leading late against mighty Air Force today. Will they move up enough to get a #1 seed?
Since the tourney expanded to 64 in 1985, no #1 team has lost in the first round. My prediction is if San Diego gets a #1 seed, they will be the first #1 to go down in round 1. Especially since the tourney expands to 68 this year. This means the #1 seed plays a team that has already won. I think the new play-in format makes it MORE likely a #1 goes down.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 19, 2011, 03:04:14 PM
Since the tourney expanded to 64 in 1985, no #1 team has lost in the first round. My prediction is if San Diego gets a #1 seed, they will be the first #1 to go down in round 1. Especially since the tourney expands to 68 this year. This means the #1 seed plays a team that has already won. I think the new play-in format makes it MORE likely a #1 goes down.
Pretty sure the extra teams come in as 11/12 seeds, not 16 seeds. 16 seeds should still be the worst of the Conference champs.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on February 19, 2011, 03:10:01 PM
Pretty sure the extra teams come in as 11/12 seeds, not 16 seeds. 16 seeds should still be the worst of the Conference champs.
I did not know that. I assumed it was like last year where the play-in was a 16 seed for all brackets.
Thanks for the clarification
#3 tOSU down 8 at #11 Purdue with 9 to go.
Will they be the 7th of top 10 team to lose this week?
The only top 10 teams to win this week are San Diego State and BYU. Duke hosts Georgia Tech tonight. They should win ... but so should have 6 other top 10 teams this week.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on February 19, 2011, 03:10:01 PM
Pretty sure the extra teams come in as 11/12 seeds, not 16 seeds. 16 seeds should still be the worst of the Conference champs.
You're right, but you're also wrong.
There are a total of four play-in games that will get the total teams from 68 to 64 for the proper start of the tournament on Thursday. Two of those games will be between the bottom four of the automatic qualifiers, so teams like Texas State or Hampton. The other two games will be between the bottom four at-large bid qualifiers, most likely 12-13 seeds like Michigan State or Butler.
The scenario shown most likely is that two of the 16-seeds will be play-in winners and two of the 12-seeds will be play-in winners. But it's definitely true that we'll see some sixteen seeds that are a bit better than in years past (for what that's worth) and we'll see teams with more momentum in two of both the 1/16 and 5/12 matchups.
And if San Diego State gets a 1-seed, I wouldn't lock them in to a first round loss, but I could see it happening. I really just don't think they're that good. And I also don't think the committee is going to give them a 1-seed. Even if they're in the top 2-3 teams in the rankings come Selection Sunday, my guess is they will miss out on a top seed, barring a complete and utter collapse from the top of the major conferences.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 20, 2011, 05:10:13 PM
And if San Diego State gets a 1-seed, I wouldn't lock them in to a first round loss, but I could see it happening. I really just don't think they're that good. And I also don't think the committee is going to give them a 1-seed. Even if they're in the top 2-3 teams in the rankings come Selection Sunday, my guess is they will miss out on a top seed, barring a complete and utter collapse from the top of the major conferences.
7 of 9 top 10 teams have lost this week (Duke is still to play tonight).
This week is a "complete and utter collaspe". Let's see if it extends into next week.
... and who is #1 next week? 1 to 4 lost this week. Duke is #5 and they have been playing pathetic competition lately.
Ohio State is #1, just as they should have been last week. They lost to a Wisconsin team on the road where they were an underdog and lost to a Purdue team that is in the top 10, also on the road. I'd put Pitt 2 and Duke 3. And while San Diego State will rise, I just can't see them as a #1 seed. Whom have they beat? Gonzaga? St. Mary's? UNLV? They haven't done anything to justify a #1 seed. New Mexico last year beat BYU twice, California, and Texas A&M, all teams clearly better than anyone SDSU has beaten this year. Yes, they did only have a 29-4 record, but they got a #3 seed. Right now, I think that's where SDSU is at. If they beat BYU and win the Mountain West, they probably get up to a #2 seed.
But unless you are a perennial powerhouse like Calipari's Memphis teams a few years back, mid-majors don't get #1 seeds. It just doesn't happen. The last time was St. Joseph's in 2004. SDSU is not a top seed yet, and when I say complete collapse, I mean they finish 33-1 and after the top three teams in the nation, everyone else worth consideration has at least 7 losses. Say Ohio State, Duke, and Kansas win out from here on, they get the top three one seeds. Everyone else, Pitt, Texas, Purdue, Wisconsin, everyone would need 7+ losses for SDSU to get on the top line. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see that happening.
Purdue had a hell of a week. Beat #3 and #10.