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Florida Gators up to No. 3 seed
February, 16, 2011
FEB 16
9:08
AM ET
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By Joe Lunardi
Jake Drake/Icon SMI
The Gators and leading scorer Erving Walker are currently in position to make a run deep into March.
This edition of Bracket Math includes all games through Tuesday. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Solid odds (In S-curve order)
Teams with Tournament Odds of 75 percent or better (through Feb. 15 games):
*: Current conference leader
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 75 percent or better through games of Jan. 21.
YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play Mar. 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play Mar. 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
The Full S-curve
* conference leader (teams)
1-Ohio State* 2-Pittsburgh* 3-Texas* 4-Kansas
8-Notre Dame 7-San Diego State 6-BYU* 5-Duke*
9-Georgetown 10-Wisconsin 11-Purdue 12-Florida*
16-Louisville 15-North Carolina 14-Connecticut 13-Villanova
17-Syracuse 18-Arizona* 19-Vanderbilt 20-Kentucky
24-West Virginia 23-St. John's 22-Missouri 21-Texas A&M
25-Temple 26-Tennessee 27-Illinois 28-Washington
32-UNLV 31-George Mason* 30-Xavier* 29-Saint Mary's*
33-UCLA 34-Florida State 35-Utah State* 36-Minnesota
40-Kansas State 39-Virginia Tech 38-Georgia 37-Old Dominion
41-Marquette 42-Alabama 43-Cincinnati 44-Baylor
48-Memphis 47-Michigan State 46-Richmond 45-Boston College
49-Missouri State* 50-Belmont* 51-UTEP* 52-Valparaiso*
56-Princeton* 55-Charleston* 54-Oakland* 53-Coastal Carolina*
57-Fairfield* 58-Bucknell* 59-Vermont* 60-Long Island*
64-Murray State* 63-Montana* 62-Long Beach* 61-Kent State*
65-Florida Atlantic* 66-Hampton* 67-Texas So.* 68-Texas State*
72-Colorado State 71-Butler 70-UAB 69-Wichita State
Take our solid at-large candidates (current Tournament Odds at 75 percent or better), and you have exactly 33 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that's another 21 spots. All told, we have 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 14 up for grabs among current bubble teams.
The bubble (27 teams for 14 spots)
IN (14, in S-curve order): 34-Florida State, 36-Minnesota, 37-Old Dominion, 38-Georgia, 39-Virginia Tech, 40-Kansas State, 41-Marquette, 42-Alabama, 43-Cincinnati, 44-Baylor, 45-Boston College, 46-Richmond, 48-Michigan State, 49-Memphis
OUT (13, in S-curve order)
69-Wichita State, 70-UAB, 71-Butler, 72-Colorado State, 73-Washington State, 74-Clemson, 75-Oklahoma State, 76-Gonzaga, 77-New Mexico, 78-Penn State, 79-Duquesne, 80-Cleveland State, 81-VCU
Conference breakdown
The Big East still projects 11 teams into the bracket, with Cincinnati sitting at No. 43 on the S-curve as the league's low team. The Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have six, while the ACC has five. Other conferences with multiple bids include the Pac-10, Mountain West, and Atlantic 10 (all of which have three bids), while Conference USA and Colonial Athletic have two each.
Games of the weekend
Saturday -- Pittsburgh at St. John's (ESPN, noon ET)
The Panthers continue their drive toward a No. 1 seed.
Saturday -- Boston College at North Carolina (ESPN, 4 p.m. ET)
A win here would provide a big boost for BC's at-large chances.
Saturday -- Washington at Arizona (ESPN, 6 p.m. ET)
The Huskies look to pull closer to the Wildcats in the Pac-10.
Saturday -- Utah State at Saint Mary's (ESPN2, 9 p.m. ET)
This is the headliner of this year's BracketBusters.
Saturday -- Illinois at Michigan State (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET)
The Spartans need every win they can get down the stretch.
Sunday -- Ohio State at Purdue (1 p.m. ET)
A road win over the Boilermakers would help the Bucks' No. 1 overall case.
Sunday -- Cleveland State at Old Dominion (ESPN2, 1 p.m. ET)
Both teams need this one to boost their at-large profiles.
Posted 45 minutes ago, after Cincy beat Louisville.
The bubble (27 teams for 14 spots)
IN (14, in S-curve order): 34-Florida State, 36-Minnesota, 37-Old Dominion, 38-Georgia, 39-Virginia Tech, 40-Kansas State, 41-Marquette, 42-Alabama, 43-Cincinnati, 44-Baylor, 45-Boston College, 46-Richmond, 48-Michigan State, 49-Memphis
OUT (13, in S-curve order)
69-Wichita State, 70-UAB, 71-Butler, 72-Colorado State, 73-Washington State, 74-Clemson, 75-Oklahoma State, 76-Gonzaga, 77-New Mexico, 78-Penn State, 79-Duquesne, 80-Cleveland State, 81-VCU
Conference breakdown
The Big East still projects 11 teams into the bracket, with Cincinnati sitting at No. 43 on the S-curve as the league's low team. The Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have six, while the ACC has five. Other conferences with multiple bids include the Pac-10, Mountain West, and Atlantic 10 (all of which have three bids), while Conference USA and Colonial Athletic have two each.
Are you guys still nervous?
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 16, 2011, 09:49:00 PM
Posted 45 minutes ago, after Cincy beat Louisville.
Double check your clock. This was posted at 9:08 AM. Wednesday morning, before Cincy beat Louisville.
It still makes me feel pretty good, though.