MUScoop

I voted 7 (almost 8) because even if we lose, we still have 5 games to recover from it.  Same situation with 2 or 1 BE game left on the schedule and it's a 10.

ADD

had I done the same poll before Georgetown, I would have given it a 2 or 3.

I voted 8. While I don't think it's an absolute make-or-break, it's close, certainly bigger than Georgetown. We have to take care of business at home. That means beating St. John's, Cincy, Seton Hall, and Providence. Do that, we go 10-8 at worst and are pretty much a lock for the Big Dance given the soft bubble. Lose one of those and we must beat either UConn or SHU on the road to be assured of a place. That's a tall order, especially given how Hazell has been playing for the Pirates.

Though admittedly, I think we have at least a 60% chance of getting in at 9-9, especially with a couple Big East tourney wins. But still...very big game.

We have already had out turning points, Louisville, UCONN, Villanova and Georgetown. We are NIT bound!

Quote from: willie warrior on February 13, 2011, 05:10:22 PMWe have already had out turning points, Louisville, UCONN, Villanova and Georgetown. We are NIT bound!

I'm going to assume you're kidding, because anyone who is objectively following the whole of college basketball would instantly realize this comment is either asinine or deserves to be in teal.

Quote from: willie warrior on February 13, 2011, 05:10:22 PM
We have already had out turning points, Louisville, UCONN, Villanova and Georgetown. We are NIT bound!

So this is the new standard, beat a top 15 team on the road or a top 5 team at home?

Did I miss something because I thought the NCAA was taking 68 teams, not 16 teams.  What you describe is the standard circa 1953 when they old took 16 teams.

Lose at home and you may as well stick a fork in the team. We clearly struggle on the road,so more home losses will make it next to impossible.

Quote from: 79Warrior on February 13, 2011, 05:33:53 PM

Lose at home and you may as well stick a fork in the team. We clearly struggle on the road,so more home losses will make it next to impossible.

I disagree with this.  only 24 of 345 teams have beaten a top 25 RPI team on the road.  20 of the 24 only did it once.

We are 3 - 0 against non-top25 teams on the road.

we have played 13 teams currently ranked this year.  Wisconsin has play 3 (Purdue tOSU and ND), Duke has played 1 (UNC three days ago).

We are playing an impossible schedule right now.  As I noted before, from 1985 to 1993 (8 years) we only played 15 ranked teams.  Now we do this in about two months.

So, we don't know if they are a bad road team.  If they won at the pace you want them to, we'd be top 5.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 13, 2011, 06:48:30 PM

We are playing an impossible schedule right now.  As I noted before, from 1985 to 1993 (8 years) we only played 15 ranked teams.  Now we do this in about two months.

So, we don't know if they are a bad road team.  If they won at the pace you want them to, we'd be top 5.

words of wisdom and reason on the board, Please mama, say it ain't so! 

All those mid major conferences get to play a top 25 team once maybe twice a year.  We do it each week now.  It is awesome. 

10.  This team's held serve basically all year, and beating St Johns would be a continuation of that.  We really really need to win.  As sson as we lose one we're supposed to win, we're in deep trouble.

I voted 7, but that may have been too high.  I think that, based on remaining schedule, they're just about as good as in the NCAA. Cincinnati may be the more important game for us though they have a bear of a schedule the rest of the way in. I can't see us ending the season with a worse record than Cincinnati. We may already be getting boxed in as the #10 team from the Big East.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 13, 2011, 06:48:30 PM
I disagree with this.  only 24 of 345 teams have beaten a top 25 RPI team on the road.  20 of the 24 only did it once.

May I ask why the top 25 RPI is some kind of sacrosanct number?  In talking to Elgin in years past, it was always top 100 RPI wins and top 50 RPI wins as well as losses to teams below 100 (101 to 345).  I've never seen top 25 used until today.  I appreciate his analysis and enjoyed the humor of the post on CS, but does this magical top 25 number derived from something that is on importance?

We are 3-9 against top 50 RPI teams (a UCLA for example is 2-4).  
Against top 100, we are 5-10.  Michigan is 7-9 and only two spots behind us in the RPI.

Jerry Palm and Warren Nolan do a good job in their Nitty Gritty reports outlining what teams are in trouble and why they are in trouble.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/nitty

Maybe they used top 25 as that is what we have played.

We are 0 - 6 against top 25 on the road but 3 - 0 against top 26 and up.

Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 13, 2011, 10:57:23 PM
Maybe they used top 25 as that is what we have played.

We are 0 - 6 against top 25 on the road but 3 - 0 against top 26 and up.

I don't think so.  I think bama used in his CS post, but that's not what the selection committee has used in the past, not according to Elgin or according to the mock committees that the press has been part of the last few years.  It's been about top 100.  I only say it to set some expectations...it's great research that Bama has done, but the committee isn't cherry picking out data to make one school look better than another which is why they use a broader set of numbers (or at least used to).

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/tag/_/name/2010-ncaa-tournament-mock-selection-committee

I chuckle at the mention of polls in the article.

By the way, note this blurb by Yahoo last year on the top 4 snubs

4.Seton Hall (19-12, 9-9, RPI: 61): Although Seton Hall didn't have a bad loss all season, the Pirates still had way too many of them. Victories over Pittsburgh, Louisville and Cornell helped their cause, but a neutral-court loss against fellow bubble team Virginia Tech without Hokies star Malcolm Delaney weighed down their profile like an anchor.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 13, 2011, 10:53:33 PM
May I ask why the top 25 RPI is some kind of sacrosanct number?  In talking to Elgin in years past, it was always top 100 RPI wins and top 50 RPI wins as well as losses to teams below 100 (101 to 345).  I've never seen top 25 used until today.  I appreciate his analysis and enjoyed the humor of the post on CS, but does this magical top 25 number derived from something that is on importance?

We are 3-9 against top 50 RPI teams (a UCLA for example is 2-4).  
Against top 100, we are 5-10.  Michigan is 7-9 and only two spots behind us in the RPI.

Jerry Palm and Warren Nolan do a good job in their Nitty Gritty reports outlining what teams are in trouble and why they are in trouble.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2011/nitty

Nice link, Chicos.

I think the only thing that we can rectify in that ranking is road wins. With "lesser teams" and I use that with the utmost respect of BE brethren, the teams we're facing on the road are winnable.

The win at Gtown was kinda winnable with an expectation of a close game.

I said 9. If I was thinking only about wins and losses, I would've said 7 or 8, as I think we will still have a chance to get in even if we don't win (though a good showing at the BEast tourney becomes more important). But, because I think there will be huge psychological ramifications to that game, win or lose, I think it become VERY important.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 13, 2011, 11:13:02 PM
By the way, note this blurb by Yahoo last year on the top 4 snubs

4.Seton Hall (19-12, 9-9, RPI: 61): Although Seton Hall didn't have a bad loss all season, the Pirates still had way too many of them. Victories over Pittsburgh, Louisville and Cornell helped their cause, but a neutral-court loss against fellow bubble team Virginia Tech without Hokies star Malcolm Delaney weighed down their profile like an anchor.

Last year 65 teams, this year 68 teams. 

Last year the BE sent 8 teams, the B12 sent 7, the ACC sent 5
This year many are projecting the BE sends 11 as the B12 and ACC are very weak and expected to send less teams.

So I agree that the same record in 2010 would making us a lot more iffy.  But this is not 2010, its 2011.

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 13, 2011, 11:13:02 PMBy the way, note this blurb by Yahoo last year on the top 4 snubs

4.Seton Hall (19-12, 9-9, RPI: 61): Although Seton Hall didn't have a bad loss all season, the Pirates still had way too many of them. Victories over Pittsburgh, Louisville and Cornell helped their cause, but a neutral-court loss against fellow bubble team Virginia Tech without Hokies star Malcolm Delaney weighed down their profile like an anchor.

9 of our 10 losses are to ranked teams.  A little different than their losses.

Quote from: TallTitan34 on February 14, 2011, 06:20:55 AM
9 of our 10 losses are to ranked teams.  A little different than their losses.

7 of those 10 losses were to ranked teams on away or neutral courts.

I think its really important (I voted 8) because Marquette, St Johns, and Cincy look verrry similar right now.  If the committee starts getting jumpy about letting in too many BEast teams, and the BEast falls short of the projected number, the head to head games between us, St Johns, and Cincy become very important.  Granted, the resumes are constructed differently, and Cincy seems like the weak link in the three, but if this comes down to the committee setting the number out of the BEast before deciding which bubble teams are in, these head to head matchups will be important to a lot of committee members.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 13, 2011, 05:15:53 PM
I'm going to assume you're kidding, because anyone who is objectively following the whole of college basketball would instantly realize this comment is either asinine or deserves to be in teal.

...or written by willie warrior