According to Pomeroy, (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE) MU's Conference SOS is ranked #3, behind SJU (#1) and DePaul. All of the BE teams ahead of us in the standings have had an easier time of it as MU has cycled through its gauntlet portion of their schedule. Pomeroy, Goodman, and even a few poll voters are bullish on the Warriors. Pomeroy still has MU at 10-8 or 11-7 to finish the year as MU matches up statistically.
- MU's two closest bubble competitors play MU at the BC
- MU is favored in 2 of 4 away games
- MU matches up well vs. Gtown on line-up strengths and weaknesses
- MU is now the 6th best offense nationally
- MU has the revenge factor going against UCONN
The week off gives Buzz & Crewe time to rest up, regroup, replan and work out some kinks. The bloom is waiting to be picked.
Those are all good factors. Woulsd like to see us beating UCONN at their place for the resume--that would be best. But that is the least likely of remaining games to happen.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 05, 2011, 02:34:36 PM
Those are all good factors. Woulsd like to see us beating UCONN at their place for the resume--that would be best. But that is the least likely of remaining games to happen.
I get what you mean as a UCONN win would almost certainly sure up a bid, but winning the games we are supposed to and beating the other 2 real bubble teams with us in St Johns and Cincy would probably be better....that would leave no doubt in sorting the 3.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 05, 2011, 02:34:36 PM
Those are all good factors. Woulsd like to see us beating UCONN at their place for the resume--that would be best. But that is the least likely of remaining games to happen.
I think either a win @UConn or @GTown would be huge for the resume. That's one thing we don't have right now... a big away or neutral victory.
To make the dance, we will need 11-7 conference (10-8 maybe), and we need at least one quality road win. Problem is, I do not see any gimmes on the schedule. Best I feel we will do:
@USF Win
@Georgetown Loss
St. John's Loss
Seton Hall Win
@UConn Loss
Providence Win
Cinncy Win
@Seton Hall Loss
This gives us 9-9 Conference. To make the dance, we will either need to beat Georgetown or UConn on the road, which would gives us 10-8. We cannot afford to lose at South Fla., but I think we lose one at home. This is all still real fluid. The best thing is to go 6-2 with a win against either UCONN or Georgetown.
What a crap shoot.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 05, 2011, 05:07:30 PM
To make the dance, we will need 11-7 conference (10-8 maybe), and we need at least one quality road win. Problem is, I do not see any gimmes on the schedule. Best I feel we will do:
@USF Win
@Georgetown Loss
St. John's Loss
Seton Hall Win
@UConn Loss
Providence Win
Cinncy Win
@Seton Hall Loss
This gives us 9-9 Conference. To make the dance, we will either need to beat Georgetown or UConn on the road, which would gives us 10-8. We cannot afford to lose at South Fla., but I think we lose one at home. This is all still real fluid. The best thing is to go 6-2 with a win against either UCONN or Georgetown.
What a crap shoot.
We will not lose at home to St. Johns. No way. 10-8 is also more than enough to get into the tourney this year, 9-9 would just require a BET win.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 05, 2011, 05:07:30 PM
To make the dance, we will need 11-7 conference (10-8 maybe), and we need at least one quality road win. Problem is, I do not see any gimmes on the schedule. Best I feel we will do:
@USF Win
@Georgetown Loss
St. John's Loss
Seton Hall Win
@UConn Loss
Providence Win
Cinncy Win
@Seton Hall Loss
This gives us 9-9 Conference. To make the dance, we will either need to beat Georgetown or UConn on the road, which would gives us 10-8. We cannot afford to lose at South Fla., but I think we lose one at home. This is all still real fluid. The best thing is to go 6-2 with a win against either UCONN or Georgetown.
What a crap shoot.
Losing to St. Johns at home is you being optimistic?
Quote from: windyplayer on February 05, 2011, 06:47:39 PM
Losing to St. Johns at home is you being optimistic?
In support of this comment, I would like to point out that Pomeroy has MU beating St. John's at home, and rates MU 24 in the country and St. John's somewhere in the low 60's. So it appears from Pomeroy's statistical point of view at least, that we are destined to survive the coaching miracle that is Steve Lavin.
BYW, Pomeroy had us rated a slight favorite at home over Syracuse. I'm really becoming a believer of this guy.
Unless we upset Georgetown on the road, the Seton Hall road game outcome seems to be the difference between whether we finish 10 and 8 or 11 and 7. Seton Hall worries me because they are rated too low as a result of Hazell missing 14 or so games early in the season.
Quote from: LittleMurs on February 05, 2011, 06:56:14 PM
In support of this comment, I would like to point out that Pomeroy has MU beating St. John's at home, and rates MU 24 in the country and St. John's somewhere in the low 60's. So it appears from Pomeroy's statistical point of view at least, that we are destined to survive the coaching miracle that is Steve Lavin.
BYW, Pomeroy had us rated a slight favorite at home over Syracuse. I'm really becoming a believer of this guy.
Unless we upset Georgetown on the road, the Seton Hall road game outcome seems to be the difference between whether we finish 10 and 8 or 11 and 7. Seton Hall worries me because they are rated too low as a result of Hazell missing 14 or so games early in the season.
+1
I would say each of those home games we have a very good chance at winning and I can see us winning at USF and probably at SH as well. You're right about the SH game potentially being tough because of Hazell. We have also had quite a few scrappy games with them over the past few years. Either way, if we beat the teams below us, I see us as a lock for the tourney and every game we win in the BET increases our seeding.