5-5 in BEast Play with 8 games left (4 at home and 4 on the road)
February 9 @ South Florida
February 13 @ Georgetown
February 15 St. John's
February 19 Seton Hall
February 24 @ Connecticut
February 27 Providence
March 2 Cincinnati
March 5 @ Seton Hall
Finishing the season on a 5-3 or 6-2 run is a possible. Only game that really scares me is the one at UConn.
Win the games we are supposed to, lose the games we are supposed to, avoid the bad loss and we finish 6-2. 5-3 at worst.
To get in the dance, we will need to go 6-2 with quality wins.
Look around the rest of the country. 5-3 plus 1 in the BEast tourney gets us in. You will still complain, but we will be in. 10-8 in the BEast with 20 wins will be enough.
Quote from: tower912 on February 03, 2011, 07:02:30 AM
5-3 plus 1 in the BEast tourney gets us in.
Plus one in the BE tourney is the key. I just cant see them taking more than 10 BE teams the way we beat each other up. Depends on what happens to the 8-12 spots in the BE tourney. If it works out right and the right teams win a few in the tourney I guess they will have to take 10
St. Johns is the 11th place team in the BE. They destroyed Duke this past weekend.
Reading college BBall writers and they give the BE a LOT of respect. The question is weather the committee will take 10 or 11 BE teams. With 68 spots (three more than last year) and a pitiful ACC and PAC-10, I think they will, they will have no choice as the teams they will take over those last few BE teams will clearly be inferior.
a 9 - 9 BE will make it, maybe a 8 - 10. Unless we lay an egg, we are in now.
Quote from: chren21 on February 03, 2011, 07:08:47 AM
Plus one in the BE tourney is the key. I just cant see them taking more than 10 BE teams the way we beat each other up. Depends on what happens to the 8-12 spots in the BE tourney. If it works out right and the right teams win a few in the tourney I guess they will have to take 10
The committee tries to arrange conference teams so they will not meet until AT LEAST the regional finals. 8 teams is the max you can take under this rule (and that is the record from one conference, from the BE). Once they go to 9 teams, and have to break this unwritten rule, it's easy to go to 11.
Think of its like losing one's virginity. In this case it is the committee's virginity.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 03, 2011, 07:22:57 AM
The committee tries to arrange conference teams so they will not meet until AT LEAST the regional finals. 8 teams is the max you can take under this rule (and that is the record from one conference, from the BE). Once they go to 9 teams, and have to break this unwritten rule, it's easy to go to 11.
Think of its like losing one's virginity. In this case it is the committee's virginity.
Hope you guys are right, but I will wait to see what happens when the BE teams continue to beat each other up till the end of the season. Teams from other weaker conferences will continue to win while we continue to just beat each other up. Take North Carolina for example.
Will the BE end up with even 7 teams in the top 25 by seasons end? Again I hope so but there is a lot of beating each other up left to do.
As long as mid-Big East teams continue to jump up and bite the top teams from other "power" conferences like St. John's bit Duke, we can beat each other up all day and all month, and we will continue to get the national respect. That being said, I would just feel a lot better being in the #9 or #10 Big East spot rather than the #11 spot come Selection Sunday.
Take care of business between now and March 5th and we'll be fine...that includes beating Cincy and St Johns.
So far we've got 3 solid wins (West Virginia, Notre Dame, and Syracuse), we've avoided the bad loss (to date), and although I don't believe in good loses, none of the games we've lost have been horrible. Plus, the tournament committee always looks at how you end the season.
I have to say, we are exactly where I thought/realistically hoped we'd be 10 games in. The average ranking of the 5 teams we've lost to is 9 (Average ranking including non-conference losses, not including unranked Gonzaga, is 12). I would suggest is right where they should be, with a chance to stack up some wins over the remainder of the schedule.
I will be somewhat surprised if we finish any worse than 10-8, which history suggests will be no worse than a 7th or 8th place finish.
Quote from: DCWarriors04 on February 03, 2011, 06:12:59 AM
5-5 in BEast Play with 8 games left (4 at home and 4 on the road)
February 9 @ South Florida
February 13 @ Georgetown
February 15 St. John's
February 19 Seton Hall
February 24 @ Connecticut
February 27 Providence
March 2 Cincinnati
March 5 @ Seton Hall
Finishing the season on a 5-3 or 6-2 run is a possible. Only game that really scares me is the one at UConn.
@ Gtown doesn't scare you? They're playing arguably the best basketball in the BEast right now.
Quote from: DCWarriors04 on February 03, 2011, 06:12:59 AM
5-5 in BEast Play with 8 games left (4 at home and 4 on the road)
February 9 @ South Florida
February 13 @ Georgetown
February 15 St. John's
February 19 Seton Hall
February 24 @ Connecticut
February 27 Providence
March 2 Cincinnati
March 5 @ Seton Hall
Finishing the season on a 5-3 or 6-2 run is a possible. Only game that really scares me is the one at UConn.
St. Johns, Seton Hall USF, Providence and Cincy scare me.
Losing at Georgetown or Uconn is already going to be expected. If we win, it will be a nice bonus.
Its the possibility for a loss to one of the other five teams that could hurt our tournament chances.
Quote from: windyplayer on February 03, 2011, 08:38:53 AM
@ Gtown doesn't scare you? They're playing arguably the best basketball in the BEast right now.
Save for the beating at MSG last year (which was long overdue with that team), MU has matched up well with the Hoyas since entering the conference. Not to mention they've won in DC at the Verizon so it isn't out of the realm of possibility to not be scared by that game.
Truthfully, no game "scares" me. Those are reserved for the ones you expect to get an ass kicking. UConn has shown they are beatable anywhere in the state of Connecticut. And Tampa and Newark aren't exactly temples of doom. The rest are at home. There shouldn't be any fear.
MU can't beat anyone decent on the road so UCONN and Georgetown are automatic losses.
Providence and Cincinnati at home I feel comfortable with.
St John's and Seton Hall at home should be wins.
At South Florida and at Seton Hall are a little more iffy. MU should win, but could slip up in one.
Go 6-2 and MU is in. Go 5-3 and I think MU stays home.
Quote from: The Golden Avalanche on February 03, 2011, 09:32:54 AM
Save for the beating at MSG last year (which was long overdue with that team), MU has matched up well with the Hoyas since entering the conference. Not to mention they've won in DC at the Verizon so it isn't out of the realm of possibility to not be scared by that game.
Truthfully, no game "scares" me. Those are reserved for the ones you expect to get an ass kicking. UConn has shown they are beatable anywhere in the state of Connecticut. And Tampa and Newark aren't exactly temples of doom. The rest are at home. There shouldn't be any fear.
Absoluetly not scared of any game left on our schedule.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 03, 2011, 07:22:57 AM
The committee tries to arrange conference teams so they will not meet until AT LEAST the regional finals. 8 teams is the max you can take under this rule (and that is the record from one conference, from the BE). Once they go to 9 teams, and have to break this unwritten rule, it's easy to go to 11.
Think of its like losing one's virginity. In this case it is the committee's virginity.
They've already changed the rule to say that the Elite 8 is only a suggestion. MU and WVU could have met in the Sweet 16 and so could ND and Nova last year. Bring on 11 bids!
Quote from: warriors1965 on February 03, 2011, 09:33:37 AM
MU can't beat anyone decent on the road so UCONN and Georgetown are automatic losses.
Providence and Cincinnati at home I feel comfortable with.
St John's and Seton Hall at home should be wins.
At South Florida and at Seton Hall are a little more iffy. MU should win, but could slip up in one.
Go 6-2 and MU is in. Go 5-3 and I think MU stays home.
I agree for the most part since I think we will beat Providence, Cincy, St. Johns, Seton Hall, and then one of the @ Seton Hall or @ South Florida games.
I disagree that 5-3 leaves us home though because I think we will get at least 1 win in the BE Tourney and that should be enough.
Go 5-3 and then 1-1 in the Big East Tournament and I think a 20-13 team that went 10-8 in the toughest conference and has an SOS in the top 40 will make it. ;D
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 03, 2011, 07:22:57 AM
The committee tries to arrange conference teams so they will not meet until AT LEAST the regional finals. 8 teams is the max you can take under this rule (and that is the record from one conference, from the BE). Once they go to 9 teams, and have to break this unwritten rule, it's easy to go to 11.
Think of its like losing one's virginity. In this case it is the committee's virginity.
That rule was changed a couple of years ago. While they still try to arrange conference teams so they don't play until the regional final, the formal rule is now teams from the same leagues can't play until the regional semi's. Obviously when the BE goes over 8 this year that'll be the new standard.
I think schedule matters, and matter a lot. We are making way too much of the idea that we are "beating each other up".
As I noted above, St. Johns destroyed Duke this past weekend. Duke is now #5 and will probably get a #1 seed again.
Here is Duke's remaining schedule (Realtime RPI)
Sat, Feb 5 vs North Carolina State (109)
Wed, Feb 9 vs North Carolina (13)
Sun, Feb 13 @ Miami (FL) (71)
Wed, Feb 16 @ Virginia (138)
Sun, Feb 20 vs Georgia Tech (158)
Wed, Feb 23 vs Temple (37)
Sat, Feb 26 @ Virginia Tech (62)
Wed, Mar 2 vs Clemson (76)
Sat, Mar 5 @ North Carolina (13)
Duke has no more ranked (USA Today) teams. In fact, the next time they play a ranked team (unless UNC sneaks in) could be the sweet sixteen of the tourney!! This is bogus. How can a potential #1 seed stay #1 playing teams with RPIs above 100 left and right?
I believe that Duke is vastly over-rated. They were never a #1. If they lose to UNC at home, they should drop to a #4 seed, at least.
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I bring this to ask who is in a better place, Duke or a BE school. The ACC is so bad this year that Duke has no ability to show how good they are from here on out. The last good win they had was Mich State that is now fast becoming a bubble team.
I think the "beating each other up" is misplaced. I think the committee understands that Duke gets embarrassed by the 11th ranked school in the BE speaks to how good all the BE schools are.
11 BE schools go or I demand a federal investigation.
Duke will lose at least two, probably three of those remaining games.
The Big East won 80% of its non-conferene games.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on February 03, 2011, 03:13:29 PM
I think the committee understands that Duke gets embarrassed by the 11th ranked school in the BE speaks to how good all the BE schools are.
Just so long as the committee doesn't apply the same logic to St. Johns and the Big East vis-a-vis the A10, specifically, Fordham and St. Boneventure.