MU one of only 8 yet to lose by double digits after SDS falls
Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)
Tonight San Diego State became the 337th team to lose by double digits, leaving only #1 Ohio State, #2 Pitt, #3 Duke, #7 BYU, #15 Wisconsin, #22 Vanderbilt and unranked Belmont and Marquette as the only seven teams yet to lose by double digits this year. (see note at end)
What is truly amazing is that TV commentators noted last week that MU was one of only five teams to go through the regular season without a double digit loss, so the possibility that MU could do it two years in a row in which they were not ranked would defy all odds.
Buzz’s teams don’t get blown out despite already playing #2 Pitt, #3 Duke, #5 UConn, #15 Wisconsin, #19 Louisville, #22 Vandy and just outside the Top 25 West Virginia.
In determining whether or not a team would be competitive in the NCAA field, that makes MU very attractive if they come down to the bubble. How few teams can match MU’s competitiveness, when:
1. 19 of 25 ranked teams and all but one other unranked team besides MU have been beaten by double digits this season,
2. In #25 Utah State’s only game against a Big East team they lost by 17 points to Georgetown,
3. In #24 St. Mary’s only game against a common MU foe, they lost to Vanderbilt by 19.
This ability to play even the best few teams in the country to a single digit result is one of the reasons Forecast RPI predicts MU as a 9-seed even after the UConn loss, Pomeroy pegs MU as the 29th best team in the country and Sagarin has them just a few spots lower.
Is MU unlucky, or do they choke?
Which still leaves us with the fact that as good as MU is, they are only 13-8 and so probably need to go 6-4 to finish the regular season with a bid.
A 6-4 mark down the stretch is exactly what Pomeroy and Sagarin predict based on how well MU has played so far, leaving a 10-8, 19-12 mark that Forecast RPI would say results in a 9-seed, but which would probably be a couple of seeds lower.
However, critics who believe MU simply chokes away close games are skeptical that the team will win 6 of the final 10, believing they are too prone to “choking.â€
When a team loses so many close games to excellent opponents, it always leads to an argument between those who say the team “chokes†and those who say the team is “unlucky.â€
For critics, MU is tensing up when they have a lead and/or in the closing seconds, and if they keep doing that they will probably lose several more close games on the road to the NIT.
However, www.kenpom.com statistically measures “luck†by determining how many more wins a team would have if the ball had just bounced their way a couple of times. Pomeroy simply says that MU has been the 3rd unluckiest team this year, which is why he and Sagarin both peg MU to win six of their last 10 with just average luck.
When MU started 11-8 last year with a bunch of close losses, Pomeroy actually calculated that MU was the unluckiest team in the country and â€" like this year â€" was a couple of bounces away from having several more wins by then. Critics laughed off the “unluckiest†rating, but the fact that MU went on to get a No. 6-seed for a 22-11 record indicate Pomeroy may have been onto something.
Just make the tournament
The fact is that in basketball it’s all about making the tournament. I went through the football season as an Auburn season ticket holder, and if any of our six close games had gone the other way, we would have been playing in a much smaller bowl.
Thankfully, college basketball allows for close losses if you play in the Big East. Like pro football, where we all know the Packers barely snuck into the playoffs but are now in the Superbowl, the key is just to get into the tournament.
MU is good enough to hang with any team in the country any night out there, so it’s time to rally around the team to try to win 6 of these last 10 and get a bid.
Hopefully, we can then upset somebody in the tourney, and if nothing else it will be great experience for the chance we have at a truly special run next year.
Note: I went through all results for every team in a BCS Conference (73), ranked and/or in Pomeroy's top 70, so basically the best 100 teams in the country. If someone finds someone in a small conference that somehow didn't play any big teams and has no double digit losses, please comment and I will add them.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/01/mu-one-of-only-8-yet-to-lose-by-double.html
(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/8574/muddr.jpg)
OK...now *that's* funny.
On a related note, I see Jimmer threw down 43 on SDS yesterday. I have never seen him play, but I most certainly want to.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 27, 2011, 10:02:37 AM
(http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/8574/muddr.jpg)
I demand two banners. One for 2009-2010 that says only one double digit loss. And then a second banner for this year.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on January 27, 2011, 10:15:12 AM
OK...now *that's* funny.
On a related note, I see Jimmer threw down 43 on SDS yesterday. I have never seen him play, but I most certainly want to.
Watched it. You need to go out of your way to see this kid play.
Quote from: Henry Sugar on January 27, 2011, 10:17:02 AM
I demand two banners. One for 2009-2010 that says only one double digit loss. And then a second banner for this year.
(http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1338/hssuck.jpg)
Whoops. That was supposed to be a 2009-2010 One Double Digit loss banner.
No banners, but being seen as a team that plays the bestteams tough is a huge factor selection sunday. Last year skeptics gave mu no credit for all the close losses and were therefore questioning if mu would make the tourney after the nd loss.
The table is set this year.
Single digit losses, double digit losses, we're competitive with everyone.
Crap! We just need to beat SOMEONE!
Quote from: marquette99 on January 27, 2011, 10:42:40 AM
No banners, but being seen as a team that plays the bestteams tough is a huge factor selection sunday. Last year skeptics gave mu no credit for all the close losses and were therefore questioning if mu would make the tourney after the nd loss.
The table is set this year.
I disagree that playing the best teams tough is a "huge factor" come selection day. A greatyer factor is beating some of those teams. That is what the Committee is looking for!
Correct that you need to win some, but MU already has a win against the #6 and #16 team in the RPI (ND and WV), and if they do finish 10-8 in conference they probably finish with 5 quality wins (vs. top 50 RPI). Only 20 teams in the country project to finish with more than 5 wins over top 50 teams. So at 10-8, MU probably has more top 50 wins than over half the field.
The close losses against tough teams keep you in consideration as the eyeball test.
MU also is one of the only teams in the country with no bad losses (teams outside the Top 100), and only 16 teams in the country are expected to finish the season with no bad losses.
So my request of mu_hilltopper IF MU does finish 10-8 would add a string of banners to the one he created that read:
"No double digit losses" (one of only 8 teams in country)
"No bad losses" (one of only 16 teams)
"5 Quality Wins" (tied for 21st best in country)
"Winning record in best conference in US" (Pitt and MU only two to do it every year since expansion)
"NCAA bid for 6th straight year" (one of only 11 teams in country)
I believe these banners make a very nice resume.
However, if all you care about is real banners, then you better hope for an NIT bid, because it's going to be awfully uphill to win the 16-team Big East or an NCAA Regional no matter how well we play. So in the end, the skeptics always win:
1. No NCAA bid - MU stinks, can't believe they could only go 5 straight years in the tourney (one of 11 teams)!
2. 1st round loss - MU stinks, told you they didn't deserve to be here/get seed!
3. 2nd round loss - MU stinks, still can't break the first weekend!
4. Sweet 16 loss - MU stinks, just like when Grant dunked on McElvaine!
5. Elite 8 loss - MU stinks, knew 3 tourney wins in a row was a fluke!
6. Final Four loss - MU stinks, that Kansas game was a disaster!
In the end, MU will stink like the other 343 teams that don't play in the national championship, but I'm just having too much fun getting to watch us play top 10 teams one after another.
Offensive and defensive Pomeroy ratings:
- Ohio State: 3 and 3
- Pitt: 1 and 37
- Duke: 7 and 6
- UCONN: 11 and 26
- Wisco: 2 and 38
- Vandy: 32 and 17
- Belmont: 51 and 30
- MU: 10 and 82
With only 17 losses combined among the other 7 teams, MU's 8 losses and defensive efficiency rank relative to its offensive prowess stand out as the outliers. Just sayin'.
Bama, I love you.
I would be happy to create those banners for you .. and When Marquette is inducted into the Moral Victory Hall of Fame later this year, you can deliver the acceptance speech. It will be quite the honor!
WOW, how great!!, I forgot how losses by less than double digits don't count as a full loss!!!. This should really help our NCAA tournament chances!!
Marquette will win the Big East tournament this year.
Quote from: flash on January 27, 2011, 01:55:33 PM
WOW, how great!!, I forgot how losses by less than double digits don't count as a full loss!!!. This should really help our NCAA tournament chances!!
Flash - I usually think you are pretty on target, but clearly losses don't all have the same impact.
Let's take the 1 point losses to Vandy and Louisville:
First, they do only count as 0.6 losses on the RPI because they are on the road,
Second, those pull us up in the computer rankings vs. a double digit loss in those games which would have dropped us,
Third, they help incredibly in the eyeball test because we look like a tournament team vs. when someone like St. Mary's or Utah State gets run off the court by almost 20 when they play the same opponent.
Hilltopper - I will take the Morale Victory banner though! It's wonderful to go through life with low expectations from going through MU in the late 80s. I am thrilled to be playing the best teams in the country every week, and looking like we belong. Certainly won't be satisfied until we go at least Sweet 16, but I'm not going to be depressed over great showings that fall short.
Maybe it is the late 80's thing that keeps me from approaching the ledge. When you have to live through the transition from Majerus to Dukiet, 0-8 against ND, Rod Strickland actually laughing at your team as he brings the ball up, watching Rod Grosse jump center and then go to the bench 90 seconds in never to be seen again...... playing a tougher stretch of teams in succession than we would see in the NCAA tourney, competing instead of getting embarrassed, ...... losing stings, but being a program with actual talk of going D3 and pinning your hopes on Pat Foley, Mike Flory, and Anthony Candelino (nice guys all and they did the best they could) is worse.
Quote from: tower912 on January 27, 2011, 03:03:35 PM
Maybe it is the late 80's thing that keeps me from approaching the ledge. When you have to live through the transition from Majerus to Dukiet, 0-8 against ND, Rod Strickland actually laughing at your team as he brings the ball up, watching Rod Grosse jump center and then go to the bench 90 seconds in never to be seen again...... playing a tougher stretch of teams in succession than we would see in the NCAA tourney, competing instead of getting embarrassed, ...... losing stings, but being a program with actual talk of going D3 and pinning your hopes on Pat Foley, Mike Flory, and Anthony Candelino (nice guys all and they did the best they could) is worse.
Speaking of whom:
http://www.bolles.org/news/detail/candelino_to_coach_bolles_boys_basketball/
And as a '90 graduate, I completely agree with you.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on January 27, 2011, 02:49:21 PM
Hilltopper - I will take the Moral Victory banner though!
Bama, MU needs 100,000 more fans like you. Ok, ok, counting your dozen kids, it's down to 99,988.
Hey, only 9 children. Although I did actually get all 9 of them in the Bradley Center once to watch the win over Nova on New Years Day the Three Amigos final year.
We then got in the old, beat-up 15-seat passenger van and drove the 650 miles back to Auburn, AL. Wow, that would have been a long trip if we'd lost.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on January 27, 2011, 04:18:59 PM
Hey, only 9 children. Although I did actually get all 9 of them in the Bradley Center once to watch the win over Nova on New Years Day the Three Amigos final year.
We then got in the old, beat-up 15-seat passenger van and drove the 650 miles back to Auburn, AL. Wow, that would have been a long trip if we'd lost.
Not much to do in Alabama?
Reproduce
Quote from: flash on January 27, 2011, 01:55:33 PM
WOW, how great!!, I forgot how losses by less than double digits don't count as a full loss!!!. This should really help our NCAA tournament chances!!
I'm telling ya, we've got to try to get the hockey points system in college basketball with single digit losses getting one point; we could be 13-0-8 with 34 points! Things would have gotten tense in the final seconds of the Pitt and Uconn games as we fought to salvage a point out of the matchup.