MUScoop

It appears that there are three "top teams" in BEast and then a bunch of other good teams. Top teams right now look like Syracuse, Pitt and Villanova. I have seen Pitt play twice and Syracuse once on TV--haven't seen Villanova yet.

I think Pitt is #1 and Syracuse #2.

What are thoughts of others?

I completely agree that those 3 teams are the best in the leauge with the order, imho, being Pitt, Cuse, and Nova. Pitt plays Cuse soon, and then Nova on 2/12, and I'm very interested to see how those games play out.
UConn, I think, could be in that group, if they played smarter and more together.

I'd say the middle group (in no partcular order) is UConn, Lville, Marq, ND, WV, Cincy, Gtown, and SJ. It will be interesting to see how this group separates itself from each other, and how and if they can compete with the top 3.

I've seen every team in the Big East play at least twice.  There are two great teams in Pitt and Cuse, one really good team in Nova, and then a bunch of good teams.  If we can somehow take 2 of our three roadies with Uconn, ND and Louisville, then I think 4th place is ours for the taking, since I think those are the biggest competition for that spot.

Group 1A
Pitt
Syracuse

Group 1B
Villanova

Group 2A
UConn
Louisville
Notre Dame

Group 2B
Cincinnati
Marquette
St. John's

Group 3
Georgetown
West Virginia

Quote from: Aughnanure on January 13, 2011, 11:14:49 AM
Group 1A
Pitt
Syracuse

Group 1B
Villanova

Group 2A
UConn
Louisville
Notre Dame

Group 2B
Cincinnati
Marquette
St. John's

Group 3
Georgetown
West Virginia

I think it is a little early still but I am not sold on Cincinnati or St John's.  Cinci has only played Nova and they got it handed to them.  OOC they didn't play anyone other than Xavier and OKLA.  They did crush Xavier put X is in a rebuilding year.  Okla is horrible and lost to Chaminade. 

St. Johns has played normally good teams and beat them like WV and GT.  GT has lost 4 games in conference and that hasn't been against the best teams.  WV is down this year as well.  St John's lost to ND and Syracuse.  I think St John's is in the same group as ND until I see more.  I would list as follows:

Group 1A
Pitt
Syracuse

Group 1B
Villanova

Group 2AUConn
Louisville
Marquette

Group 2B
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
St. John's

Group 3
Georgetown
West Virginia

I think there are 8-10 winnable games (where I consider MU a favorite) for MU in conference.  Those being ND, 1 X UConn (Home), 2 X Hall, Depaul, USF, GT, SJU, Prov, and Cinci.  That puts us at 11 or 13 wins.  Again it is still early and that can change when more results get it.  If Cinci or St John's beat I top 6 team then I will take notice.

Agree with Ball Boy that Marquette is 4 or 5.  There are a lot of games to play yet.  And Marquette, like the Packers, can beat any team on a given day.  Watched Villanova beat Louisville last night.  The Cardinals did not look good.  Marquette should beat them on Saturday.  Go Marquette!!!

Quote from: BallBoy on January 13, 2011, 11:38:38 AM

I think it is a little early still but I am not sold on Cincinnati or St John's.  Cinci has only played Nova and they got it handed to them.  OOC they didn't play anyone other than Xavier and OKLA.  They did crush Xavier put X is in a rebuilding year.  Okla is horrible and lost to Chaminade. 

St. Johns has played normally good teams and beat them like WV and GT.  GT has lost 4 games in conference and that hasn't been against the best teams.  WV is down this year as well.  St John's lost to ND and Syracuse.  I think St John's is in the same group as ND until I see more.  I would list as follows:

Group 1A
Pitt
Syracuse

Group 1B
Villanova

Group 2AUConn
Louisville
Marquette

Group 2B
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
St. John's

Group 3
Georgetown
West Virginia

I think there are 8-10 winnable games (where I consider MU a favorite) for MU in conference.  Those being ND, 1 X UConn (Home), 2 X Hall, Depaul, USF, GT, SJU, Prov, and Cinci.  That puts us at 11 or 13 wins.  Again it is still early and that can change when more results get it.  If Cinci or St John's beat I top 6 team then I will take notice.

Though we have been more consistent the past 5 years than St. John's and Cincy, I think its a little too early to be sold on Marquette as well. I think Louisville,  UConn and Notre Dame have all done more than MU so far. I didnt mean to rank the teams as a prediction of the year, just where they currently stand in "the pecking order."

No way is MU a favorite at ND or  at GT.

Doesn't mean we can't win but we will be and should be underdogs to both of those teams on the road.

The 2 Seton Hall games just got much tougher with the return of Hazell.

Quote from: MuMark on January 13, 2011, 02:14:24 PM
No way is MU a favorite at ND or  at GT.

Doesn't mean we can't win but we will be and should be underdogs to both of those teams on the road.

The 2 Seton Hall games just got much tougher with the return of Hazell.

Please, everyone, GT stands for Georgia Tech...not Georgetown.

AND Gin and Tonic

Quote from: Aughnanure on January 13, 2011, 01:48:11 PM
Though we have been more consistent the past 5 years than St. John's and Cincy, I think its a little too early to be sold on Marquette as well. I think Louisville,  UConn and Notre Dame have all done more than MU so far. I didnt mean to rank the teams as a prediction of the year, just where they currently stand in "the pecking order."

Obviously, it is still early and we are using the comparative opponent method so this is all speculation.  I just think that it is hard to rank ND above us when we beat them by 20pts.  I think records can also be deceiving.  MU's 12-5 record impresses me more than Cinci's 16-1 record.  MU hasn't lost to anyone that they shouldn't have but if we include ND then they have only beaten one team that they shouldn't have.  MU played yet lost to 5 ranked teams by a combined 22 points. That says we played relative tough against better competition.  MU also beat other middle BE teams to give me a hint they should be upper middle.  Beating Lousiville this weekend will solidify that.

Cinci had a pretty non-existent OOC schedule.  A bunch of middle of the road teams like Toledo, Dayton,Xavier, and Okla.  Xavier and OKLA being the only major conference players.  Both of whom aren't playing spectacularly (See ESPN ranking on their team page).  Also if you look at Cinci's Conference opponents they have played the historical bottom of the league with one exception which was Villinova.  They lost that game.  This tells me that Cinci is probably out of the top quarter but not in the bottom quarter.  If Cinci beats someone unexpectedly like Pitt or Syracuse then I will move them up.   Their overall ranking on ESPN or no where near as high as MUs and according to KenPom.com they have had an easier schedule.  KenPom does rank them 24th vs. MUs 33.  Nothing has shown me yet that Cinci is a Top 6 team but they have done enough to be middle tier BE. 

St John's again a historical underachiever is looking better under Lavin.  However, there are some glaring concerns.  First, they lost to Fordham and St. Bonaventure.  Two teams that you should beat as top 6 of the big east.  That could be written off by bad luck but KenPom rates them as 240 and 152.  Two bad losses.  The two known opponents,ND and Syracuse, they lost two.  So against good competition they lost.  They do have two interesting wins with the first being WV @ WV and the other Georgetown. I believe WV will finish in the 9-12 in league due to loses to other BE middle tier(5-12) opponents like MU and Cinci.  I think that is a good win so it moves Cinci up to the upper middle.  I then look at Georgetown who is currently 1-4 who have some interesting wins but then have also lost to three middle tier programs and 1 from the upper tier.  I think that says we should expect GU to be lower middle tier (9-12).  As of right now, I think St. John's will compete for the 5-8.  IF that is the case St. John's has only played two upper half teams in the big east and lost.  Add that to the two bad OOC loses and it gives me reason to believe MU will win.

Again all speculation but this is how I see the current strength of the conference and with that how I see the year finishing.  Lots of things can change that but at this point,MU is above ND, St Johns, GU, and Cinci.  This weekend will determine how we stack up against Louisville. 

Quote from: BallBoy on January 13, 2011, 05:18:03 PM
Obviously, it is still early and we are using the comparative opponent method so this is all speculation.  I just think that it is hard to rank ND above us when we beat them by 20pts.  I think records can also be deceiving.  MU's 12-5 record impresses me more than Cinci's 16-1 record.  MU hasn't lost to anyone that they shouldn't have but if we include ND then they have only beaten one team that they shouldn't have.  MU played yet lost to 5 ranked teams by a combined 22 points. That says we played relative tough against better competition.  MU also beat other middle BE teams to give me a hint they should be upper middle.  Beating Lousiville this weekend will solidify that.

Cinci had a pretty non-existent OOC schedule.  A bunch of middle of the road teams like Toledo, Dayton,Xavier, and Okla.  Xavier and OKLA being the only major conference players.  Both of whom aren't playing spectacularly (See ESPN ranking on their team page).  Also if you look at Cinci's Conference opponents they have played the historical bottom of the league with one exception which was Villinova.  They lost that game.  This tells me that Cinci is probably out of the top quarter but not in the bottom quarter.  If Cinci beats someone unexpectedly like Pitt or Syracuse then I will move them up.   Their overall ranking on ESPN or no where near as high as MUs and according to KenPom.com they have had an easier schedule.  KenPom does rank them 24th vs. MUs 33.  Nothing has shown me yet that Cinci is a Top 6 team but they have done enough to be middle tier BE. 

St John's again a historical underachiever is looking better under Lavin.  However, there are some glaring concerns.  First, they lost to Fordham and St. Bonaventure.  Two teams that you should beat as top 6 of the big east.  That could be written off by bad luck but KenPom rates them as 240 and 152.  Two bad losses.  The two known opponents,ND and Syracuse, they lost two.  So against good competition they lost.  They do have two interesting wins with the first being WV @ WV and the other Georgetown. I believe WV will finish in the 9-12 in league due to loses to other BE middle tier(5-12) opponents like MU and Cinci.  I think that is a good win so it moves Cinci up to the upper middle.  I then look at Georgetown who is currently 1-4 who have some interesting wins but then have also lost to three middle tier programs and 1 from the upper tier.  I think that says we should expect GU to be lower middle tier (9-12).  As of right now, I think St. John's will compete for the 5-8.  IF that is the case St. John's has only played two upper half teams in the big east and lost.  Add that to the two bad OOC loses and it gives me reason to believe MU will win.

Again all speculation but this is how I see the current strength of the conference and with that how I see the year finishing.  Lots of things can change that but at this point,MU is above ND, St Johns, GU, and Cinci.  This weekend will determine how we stack up against Louisville. 

I agree with most of what you are saying. But in the attempt to come from a more objective view I do not want to get too high on Marquette after one big win. Close losses are nice, but they are still losses.

In my original grouping of the pecking order I was not putting Cincy in front of us, but basically saying we are that group where it is too early to tell what the teams really have, but we at least know they will be competitive throughout the year (again, at this time). I cannot honestly put MU above a 1 loss team, no matter who they havent played. MU's resume doesnt warrant that, as does theirs doesnt warrant being considered in the top 6 of the Big East. That said, Im not putting us behind them, but only in a position with us which is in the group of teams after the top 6.

Concerning Notre Dame, as much as I dont like them and have always hated the fact that they get ranked easier and faster than any other team alive (especially in football where if they win 3 games in a row they're ranked), their resume is significantly more impressive right now. One game does not a season make and they have proven that they will and should be a pretty good NCAA-caliber team, more than Marquette has proven thus far.

Louisville may be the most debatable, actually, but still have beaten more quality teams than MU has so far, and St. John's has a lot of seniors and a new coach (so I dont put as much stock in their early losses, but they could be dropped to the group 3).

I might rethink some of my grouping a bit, like St. John's, but I still don't think Id change much of it yet.

Quote from: elephantraker on January 13, 2011, 04:55:56 PM
AND Gin and Tonic

Georgetown needs a few gin and tonics. By time MU plays them they may of given up on the season.

Quote from: Aughnanure on January 13, 2011, 05:58:52 PM
I agree with most of what you are saying. But in the attempt to come from a more objective view I do not want to get too high on Marquette after one big win. Close losses are nice, but they are still losses.

In my original grouping of the pecking order I was not putting Cincy in front of us, but basically saying we are that group where it is too early to tell what the teams really have, but we at least know they will be competitive throughout the year (again, at this time). I cannot honestly put MU above a 1 loss team, no matter who they havent played. MU's resume doesnt warrant that, as does theirs doesnt warrant being considered in the top 6 of the Big East. That said, Im not putting us behind them, but only in a position with us which is in the group of teams after the top 6.

Concerning Notre Dame, as much as I dont like them and have always hated the fact that they get ranked easier and faster than any other team alive (especially in football where if they win 3 games in a row they're ranked), their resume is significantly more impressive right now. One game does not a season make and they have proven that they will and should be a pretty good NCAA-caliber team, more than Marquette has proven thus far.

Louisville may be the most debatable, actually, but still have beaten more quality teams than MU has so far, and St. John's has a lot of seniors and a new coach (so I dont put as much stock in their early losses, but they could be dropped to the group 3).

I might rethink some of my grouping a bit, like St. John's, but I still don't think Id change much of it yet.

I see where you are coming from and it is just as valid as anything I can come up with.  I think you do have to admit that there just as much of a pessimistic view in your "objective" view. I couldn't think of a better word then pessimistic so please don't think I think you are negative.  In other words, as you say that I raised MU by too much because I am a fan yet you knocked MU down a few rungs as you are also a fan. I might have the MU tinted glasses on and give MU a few extra wins without earning it but at the same time you took wins away because you don't have enough proof that they are better.  In your scenario, MU has not proven they are better than St John's or Cinci so you take those two as better while I said St John's and Cinci hasn't proven that they are better so I will take MU.

All things being equal, we basically have the same list with a minor variations.  I think we can agree that the following groups exist:

Top 1-4
Pitt
Nova
Syracuse
UConn (one team that is there by default)

Top Middle 5-8 (Any team could fall out)
Louisville
Marquette
ND
Cinci

Lower Middle 9-12 (any Team could jump up)
St John's
Georgetown
West Virginia
Seton Hall

Bottom 13-16 (Let's just agree the bottom 4)
Rutgers
Providence
Depaul
South Florida

I agree that Notre Dame does have a more impressive schedule so far.  They have two wins against two common opponents (Wisco and Gonz).  The one thing that has changed is they lost one of their better players. He will be out until Feb.  ND might lose a few games that they should have won during that stretch.  The team that played MU wasn't the same team that beat those two teams.  Does ND have the depth to replace Scott who is arguable their 2nd or third best player?  I don't know.  Is the MU that showed up for ND going to show up the remainder of the season?  I don't know.    

That might change as more information comes in but I think we can safetly say MU is not in the top or bottom quarter.  The teams in the middle will shift but this is generally how they shape up.  So less of a pecking order and more of a tiering.  As of right now I consider MU in the Top 8.  They should beat those who are 9-16 but they may not.  See DePaul last year.  

I didnt say Cincy and St. John's were ahead of Marquette, they are just in the same "tier."

Normalized results for each team

Team        Pomeroy    Z-score
Pittsburgh        0.974           0.84
Syracuse        0.970           0.81
Villanova        0.964           0.76
Louisville        0.953           0.67
Cincinnati        0.942           0.58
West Virginia   0.941           0.57
Connecticut    0.935           0.52
Notre Dame     0.930           0.49
Georgetown    0.927           0.46
Marquette        0.926           0.45
St. John's        0.873           0.02
Seton Hall        0.824          -0.37
Providence        0.805          -0.53
Rutgers        0.734          -1.10
South Florida   0.691          -1.45
DePaul        0.537          -2.70

I'd kind of break it up Tier One (Pitt, Cuse, Nova, UL), Tier Two (Cincy, WVU, UConn, ND, GU, MU), Tier Three (SJU, SHU, PC), and Tier Four (RU, USF, DPU).  That's arbitrary, though.

Quote from: Henry Sugar on January 14, 2011, 10:00:05 AM
Normalized results for each team

Team        Pomeroy    Z-score
Pittsburgh        0.974           0.84
Syracuse        0.970           0.81
Villanova        0.964           0.76
Louisville        0.953           0.67
Cincinnati        0.942           0.58
West Virginia   0.941           0.57
Connecticut    0.935           0.52
Notre Dame     0.930           0.49
Georgetown    0.927           0.46
Marquette        0.926           0.45
St. John's        0.873           0.02
Seton Hall        0.824          -0.37
Providence        0.805          -0.53
Rutgers        0.734          -1.10
South Florida   0.691          -1.45
DePaul        0.537          -2.70

I'd kind of break it up Tier One (Pitt, Cuse, Nova, UL), Tier Two (Cincy, WVU, UConn, ND, GU, MU), Tier Three (SJU, SHU, PC), and Tier Four (RU, USF, DPU).  That's arbitrary, though.

You will have to revise this after we kick Louisville's butt!