I relook at our remaining games after every game and try to adjust my projections. I'm curious how everyone else thinks we'll play out. Template for you use is below, including Pomeroy's perdiction.
At Louisville 22% W or L
DePaul 95% W or L
At Notre Dame 33% W or L
Connecticut 65% W or L
Syracuse 44% W or L
At Villanova 22% W or L
At South Florida 76% W or L
At Georgetown 31% W or L
St. John's 75% W or L
Seton Hall 84% W or L
At Connecticut 34% W or L
Providence 82% W or L
Cincinnati 60% W or L
At Seton Hall 59% W or L
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
Puts us at 11-7. I don't see us doing the same to Notre Dame at home, we'll be in foul trouble early. I think one of the UConn/GT away games could go either way depending how their season progress. I don't see us beating Syracuse though, mainly because it is on National Marquette Day.
Quote from: marqptm on January 11, 2011, 10:12:20 AM
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
Puts us at 10-8. I don't see us doing the same to Notre Dame at home, we'll be in foul trouble early. I think one of the UConn/GT away games could go either way depending how their season progress. I don't see us beating Syracuse though, mainly because it is on National Marquette Day.
or 11-7. but whatever.
At Louisville 22% W
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% W
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
13-5. A very optimistic view obviously. Louisville is a stretch, but I think we have a legit shot at Georgetown.
At Louisville W
DePaul W
At Notre Dame if ND has Scott it's an L, if ND is without Scott a W
Connecticut L
Syracuse L
At Villanova L
At South Florida W
At Georgetown W
St. John's W
Seton Hall W
At Connecticut L
Providence W
Cincinnati W
At Seton Hall W
12 - 6 or 13 - 5
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% L
Syracuse 44% W
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
11-7
At Louisville 22% Win
DePaul 95% Win
At Notre Dame 33% Win
Connecticut 65% Win
Syracuse 44% Lose
At Villanova 22% Lose
At South Florida 76% Win
At Georgetown 31% Lose
St. John's 75% Win
Seton Hall 84% Win
At Connecticut 34% Lose
Providence 82% Win
Cincinnati 60% Win
At Seton Hall 59% Lose
Holy Cow 12-6. I should be drug tested.
Quote from: marqptm on January 11, 2011, 10:00:08 AM
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
11-7. Also, is there anyone on this board that could arrange for us to beat Syracuse?
update: Duh. OF COURSE Marquette is going to finish 11-7 and 5th in conference.
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% L
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
11-7. Could see us winning at G-Town for 12-6 or losing at Seton Hall for 10-8.
If Seton Hall still had Hazel I'd say the game there would be 50/50, but without Hazel I can't see them beating us.
Georgetown...the more I watch them, the more I think we have a good chance of beating them.
After 7 people's predictions we're looking at roughly 11.5 wins. What would this number have been prior to the ND game? Like 9?
Quote from: g0lden3agle on January 11, 2011, 12:21:55 PM
After 7 people's predictions we're looking at roughly 11.5 wins. What would this number have been prior to the ND game? Like 9?
Can't speak for anyone else but I anticipated 11-12 wins in the Big East before the Big East started. I recently added a win at G'Town to get up to 13 after seeing them play a couple times.
At Louisville 22% W
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% W
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% L
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% L
Puts us at 12-6 and 21-10. Marquette always seems to manage to lose at least a game or two in the Big East they should of won (ala DePaul last year, still bitter), hence why I think they might drop one to a St. John's team I really don't want to play right now. UConn doesn't scare me that much and even with a top 5 ranking I was very doubtful, but UConn at home is still UConn at home. I really see Louisville as beatable I just don't buy them right now and they play our kind of game which is to our advantage. ND is obviously one that could go either way, but considering the pounding we laid on them (12-17 from beyond the arc or not we still won be over 20) I think we can win that.
EDIT: 11-7 college was long ago
Uconn at 65% seems real generous
Quote from: DrDestiny911 on January 11, 2011, 12:35:33 PM
At Louisville 22% W
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% W
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% L
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% L
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% L
Puts us at 12-6 and 21-10. Marquette always seems to manage to lose at least a game or two in the Big East they should of won (ala DePaul last year, still bitter), hence why I think they might drop one to a St. John's team I really don't want to play right now. UConn doesn't scare me that much and even with a top 5 ranking I was very doubtful, but UConn at home is still UConn at home. I really see Louisville as beatable I just don't buy them right now and they play our kind of game which is to our advantage. ND is obviously one that could go either way, but considering the pounding we laid on them (12-17 from beyond the arc or not we still won be over 20) I think we can win that.
or 11-7. but whatever.
At Louisville 22% L
DePaul 95% W
At Notre Dame 33% W
Connecticut 65% W
Syracuse 44% W
At Villanova 22% L
At South Florida 76% W
At Georgetown 31% L
St. John's 75% W
Seton Hall 84% W
At Connecticut 34% L
Providence 82% W
Cincinnati 60% W
At Seton Hall 59% W
I'm almost always overly optimistic about such things, and there's probably at least one more loss in there. But I think 13-5 is a very realistic possibility, and possibly challenging for a first-round bye in the BEast tournament. If we're still doing byes that way...I can never keep track of what the power brokers (cough...Boeheim...cough) do or do not want when it comes to conference tournament seeding.
Im pretty sure we will muster a split with Uconn I doubt they sweep us. VIlle is a toss up but while I can see Seton Hall, USF or Cincy getting us I can just as easily see us winning the Ville, Nova and Gtown games. So those should cancel at the very least.
We WILL beat Cuse. Its happening this year.
At Louisville W
DePaul W
At Notre Dame W
Connecticut W
Syracuse L
At Villanova W
At South Florida W
At Georgetown W
St. John's W
Seton Hall W
At Connecticut W
Providence W
Cincinnati W
At Seton Hall W
16-2. Yes. (No...but Syracuse is the only game I absolutely cannot see us winning...In reality, probably losses at UConn, GTown, Louisville, and Nova as well...we're that much better than ND, we're not losing that game...but just to say "I told you so" when it happens, I'm sticking with 16-2. Tied for 2nd in the Big East...Syracuse first, Pitt tied with us.
Win your home games and steal a couple on the road and suddenly we are at 11-12 wins. Cannot stress enough how important it is to defend your home court.
I will not make a team by team prediction. Before the season started, I felt we would be better than Louisville and was figuring that game as a win for us. Louisville appears to be better than I thought, but I am encouraged by the Notre Dame game. I am also encourage by the Pitt game, because I think Pitt is definitly better than Louisville. Beat Louisvile and I see 12 wins as a possibility. However, we have to avoid the unexpected loss to the likes of DePaul or South Florida that we have had the last two years.
Game by game is very challenging for me. I see a combination of 5 home wins and 3 road wins (7 each way) to get us to 11 for the conference season. Saturday against Louisville would be a great win if they can get it and give us some cushion against a future unexpected loss.
since 11-7 seems to be the mark everyone keeps coming back to, does that get us in? what would we need out of the conference tourney? i have to admit that until i start reading some more analysis, i'm not familiar enough with the addition of the new spots to know what that means for the bubble.
You never want to lose the first Big East tourney game. Figure 8 bids for Big East, so you are in trouble if you are not there for the third round (final 8). However 11-7 would get you a first round bye, so you need to win one game to get in the final 8. If you lose you just gave a lesser team a 2 game win streak in
conference tournament with a chance for more wins.
11-7 will get us in especially with the expanded field. We would be in without the play in game.
barring a callapse by a few teams(good for us anyways) the BE will be sending 9 teams and break there own record. Bank on it.
Quote from: MUBurrow on January 11, 2011, 07:55:20 PM
since 11-7 seems to be the mark everyone keeps coming back to, does that get us in? what would we need out of the conference tourney? i have to admit that until i start reading some more analysis, i'm not familiar enough with the addition of the new spots to know what that means for the bubble.
I'd say 11-7 in conference (20-11 overall) would get us in, especially if we can avoid the bad loss. Despite not having a big non conference win, W's over West Virginia and ND so far look good, and hopefully there will be a couple more before the season ends.
Just as I though MU had to win 2 of the lest 3 (which they did), I think they have to win 2 of the next 3, because the 3 after that, are ridiculous (UConn, Syracuse, and @Villanova). Three wins or better during that 6 game stretch and we should be in real good shape. ANything worse than 2-4 and it gets pretty tough. Not only will these next 6 have a huge impact on our place in the standings, but it also provides the most opportunity for quality/signature wins.
There is NO doubt in my mind that 11-7 gets MU in the NCAA tourney - even if they lose their first game in the Big East tourney. Hell 10-8 and a first round loss might even get MU in. Big East likely will get 9 teams in this year, and we know that most likely the below teams won't make it:
DePaul
Rutgers
Seton Hall
Providence
South Florida
That leaves 2 teams scrambling for positioning to get to 9th place in Big East - Do we think St. Johns and Cincy are better than us? To me beating Cincy and St. Johns could be huge as at minimum they would be the teams we might be jockeying with..if we finish in that 9-9, 10-8, 9th/10th place in the Big East slot. Hell Georgetown could even be down there..
I'm changing my prediction to 12 wins. In Jae Crowder I trust..
Quote from: Ners on January 12, 2011, 09:00:22 AM
There is NO doubt in my mind that 11-7 gets MU in the NCAA tourney - even if they lose their first game in the Big East tourney. Hell 10-8 and a first round loss might even get MU in. Big East likely will get 9 teams in this year, and we know that most likely the below teams won't make it:
DePaul
Rutgers
Seton Hall
Providence
South Florida
That leaves 2 teams scrambling for positioning to get to 9th place in Big East - Do we think St. Johns and Cincy are better than us? To me beating Cincy and St. Johns could be huge as at minimum they would be the teams we might be jockeying with..if we finish in that 9-9, 10-8, 9th/10th place in the Big East slot. Hell Georgetown could even be down there..
Don't forget we also beat WVU already who will be fighting for a bid. If we win games against Cincy and St Johns as well we gotta get in just having the head to head on everyone. Should just go ahead and pound the Ville as well.
11 wins definitely gets us in as the BE is hands down the class of the NCAA as far as conferences go this year, regardless of whether we win a BE tourney game (which we undoubtedly will)