we shot up 8 or 9 spots over our previous place...pretty good. I feel like this is just about a perfect assessment for where we are right now.
http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Also has us projected at 20-11 and 10-8 (including losses to both UW and Vanderbilt), up from 19-12 and 9-9 last week.
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette
A lot of movement lately -- we sunk quite a bit after scraping past UWM, while UW shot up after killing NC State. (So did UNLV btw, because they beat the badge I assume). Come to think of it, not sure why ND is so much lower than UW given their head to head and respective SOSs.
Quote from: Victor McCormick on December 08, 2010, 02:42:04 PM
we shot up 8 or 9 spots over our previous place...pretty good. I feel like this is just about a perfect assessment for where we are right now.
http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Also has us projected at 20-11 and 10-8 (including losses to both UW and Vanderbilt), up from 19-12 and 9-9 last week.
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette
20-11 and 10-8 with all four out of conference losses would make for a squirmy March Madness invite day. Saturday is a very big game in that regard...need to take care of business.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 08, 2010, 04:58:48 PM
20-11 and 10-8 with all four out of conference losses would make for a squirmy March Madness invite day. Saturday is a very big game in that regard...need to take care of business.
Yup. Have to split with UW and Vandy.
Pomeroy gives us a 49% chance against Wisconsin. That's virtually a 50/50 game.
He gives us much less of a chance against Vandy, 28%.
He has us winning against Syracuse for the first time since we've hit the Big East!!!
Chicos - I am NOT one of your critics, but I do believe you are being pessimistic on this one. As great as the Big East has been this year, 20 wins and 10 conference wins gets us solidly in the tourney. As we saw last year with the #6 seed, we do get credit for near misses (Duke this year) as long as we continue to play well.
Not predicting how well we will do, because 10 wins when you have 12 teams ranked in the Top 50 is no gimme, but if we get to 10 and 20 we are in.
That being said, I am nervous about Saturday - who will control the tempo - because if we do fall there I believe the pressure will really mount for AT Vandy, and if we lose both then 20 wins does start to look tough.
Agree on your main point - let's take care of business Saturday. Even bringing one of my fellow Auburn football ticket holders to show him why people get excited about REAL basketball. (Auburn #1 in football, #207 in basketball).
Quote from: LittleMurs on December 08, 2010, 06:06:29 PM
He has us winning against Syracuse for the first time since we've hit the Big East!!!
I want to beat SU as bad as UW. That would be fantastic.
Quote from: LittleMurs on December 08, 2010, 06:06:29 PM
Pomeroy gives us a 49% chance against Wisconsin. That's virtually a 50/50 game.
He gives us much less of a chance against Vandy, 28%.
He has us winning against Syracuse for the first time since we've hit the Big East!!!
Vandy on the deuce tonight at Missouri.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on December 08, 2010, 06:08:26 PM
Chicos - I am NOT one of your critics, but I do believe you are being pessimistic on this one. As great as the Big East has been this year, 20 wins and 10 conference wins gets us solidly in the tourney. As we saw last year with the #6 seed, we do get credit for near misses (Duke this year) as long as we continue to play well.
Not predicting how well we will do, because 10 wins when you have 12 teams ranked in the Top 50 is no gimme, but if we get to 10 and 20 we are in.
That being said, I am nervous about Saturday - who will control the tempo - because if we do fall there I believe the pressure will really mount for AT Vandy, and if we lose both then 20 wins does start to look tough.
Agree on your main point - let's take care of business Saturday. Even bringing one of my fellow Auburn football ticket holders to show him why people get excited about REAL basketball. (Auburn #1 in football, #207 in basketball).
Well, as I pointed out the other day, there have been a number of 10 win Big East teams that have been left out of the NCAA tournament. It all comes down to what the makeup of those 10 wins are, where are they, etc. I just don't think 20 and 10 is an automatic berth and provided a few examples to back that up from the past few years.
Providence in 2009 was 10-8 and left out.
Syracuse in 2007 was 10-6 and left out
Doesn't happen often, but has happened. Of course 9-9 there are a ton of teams that didn't make it.
Just my two cents.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on December 08, 2010, 09:32:00 PM
Well, as I pointed out the other day, there have been a number of 10 win Big East teams that have been left out of the NCAA tournament. It all comes down to what the makeup of those 10 wins are, where are they, etc. I just don't think 20 and 10 is an automatic berth and provided a few examples to back that up from the past few years.
Providence in 2009 was 10-8 and left out.
Syracuse in 2007 was 10-6 and left out
Doesn't happen often, but has happened. Of course 9-9 there are a ton of teams that didn't make it.
Just my two cents.
Don't forget there's room for 3 more at-larges this year. I think 10-8, with the Big East as strong as it is...gets us in THIS YEAR. Not speaking to other years or what might happen in the future
...but losing to Wisconsin and Vandy would give us no marquee out-of-conference wins-the committee loves that
sh!t. That loss to Gonzaga still burns me up especially since the Zags were hammered by Washington State last night.
I agree....we will be squarely on the bubble with 4 non-con losses, but I think we'll still manage to sneak into a 68 team field, especially if we pick up a win or two in the Big East tourny.
Splitting Wisco-Vandy and going 10-8 I think makes us a lock.
Quote from: Victor McCormick on December 09, 2010, 12:42:42 PM
I agree....we will be squarely on the bubble with 4 non-con losses, but I think we'll still manage to sneak into a 68 team field, especially if we pick up a win or two in the Big East tourny.
Splitting Wisco-Vandy and going 10-8 I think makes us a lock.
The bottom line is it is supremely important that we win this game on Saturday. Asking for win at Vandy is going to be a tall order. Satuday may be our only chance for a big OOC win. If we lose on Sat., the Vandy game becomes a must win of sorts.
Yes, yes... we could go 12-6 in the Big East and still make it with no big OOC win. However, with this young team I think we had better be realistic.
Bottom Line: Saturday is HUGE.
Can someone explain how we could lose all 4 non-conference games, go 10-8 in conference and finish at 20-11? I didn't do well in Calculus at Marquette, but 4 + 8 = uh..... 11?
Also, now living in Upstate NY I have the 'pleasure' os seeing Syracuse play frequently. They do not look good, but still managed to beat Michigan State pretty soundly this week. We will have trouble (as usual) against that nasty zone.
Quote from: leever on December 09, 2010, 02:46:18 PM
Can someone explain how we could lose all 4 non-conference games, go 10-8 in conference and finish at 20-11? I didn't do well in Calculus at Marquette, but 4 + 8 = uh..... 11?
Also, now living in Upstate NY I have the 'pleasure' os seeing Syracuse play frequently. They do not look good, but still managed to beat Michigan State pretty soundly this week. We will have trouble (as usual) against that nasty zone.
It's because the season record predictions reflect the sums of the probabilities rather than just picking win or loss for each game and adding up the totals. E.g., we're predicted to lose to both Wisconsin and Vandy and beat Centenary and Mississippi Valley St., but if you add up the probabilities 0.47 + 0.999 + 0.99 + 0.29, we're expected to get 2.75 wins from those 4 games. Obviously when you actually play the games you either get a win or a loss, so your predicted season record can change even if all the factors stay the same and you win or lose as expected, because you're replacing probabilities of wins with actual binary results.
For all you English majors - binary results means an actual win or loss.
hahaha. My bad
Don't overestimate the value of OOC quality wins. Quality wins are quality wins no matter who you play.
The major benefit to having an OOC quality win is that it typically has a greater positive effect on your RPI than an in-conference quality win (basically because everyone gets beat up during conference play in the Big East). Hypothetically, if Duke and UConn finished the regular season as AP #'s 1 and 2, would the committee care more about whether you beat Duke in November or UConn in February?
So if you have a strong RPI at the end of the year, finish in the top half of the BE with a winning record, have no "bad" losses, and a couple quality wins over the likes of Pitt, Cuse, Conn, etc... the committee will have MU in before they even get to the point of discussing a win/loss vs. Wisconsin.
Quote from: Benny B on December 10, 2010, 04:09:57 PM
Don't overestimate the value of OOC quality wins. Quality wins are quality wins no matter who you play.
The major benefit to having an OOC quality win is that it typically has a greater positive effect on your RPI than an in-conference quality win (basically because everyone gets beat up during conference play in the Big East). Hypothetically, if Duke and UConn finished the regular season as AP #'s 1 and 2, would the committee care more about whether you beat Duke in November or UConn in February?
So if you have a strong RPI at the end of the year, finish in the top half of the BE with a winning record, have no "bad" losses, and a couple quality wins over the likes of Pitt, Cuse, Conn, etc... the committee will have MU in before they even get to the point of discussing a win/loss vs. Wisconsin.
So then why is OOC RPI and OOC SOS even kept track of? OOC wins I don't think are being overstated here, but they sure are helpful if MU ends up only going 9-9 or 10-8 in conference. Whiffing on our big 4 OOC games and only going 9-9 or 10-8 would lead to a nasty Selection Sunday. Alas, I think we win tomorrow and go 11-7 in conference and should be safe on Selection Sunday. Hopefully this discussion is for naught.