Only watched Duke for about 10 min this year but one thing that stood out versus years past was how they force turnovers. Their offense is its usual quality but I am really worred about turnovers going into the game.
Three weaknesses we have early so far are turning the ball over, perimeter three defense, and free throw shooting. Unfortunately, Duke is really good at forcing turnovers and can shoot the three at multiple positions.
That doesn't bode well for us. To win this game I don't think Marquette can afford more than about 13 turnovers and somehow we have to keep Duke to 33% or less three point shooting.
Thoughts?
Quote from: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2010, 11:05:42 AM
Three weaknesses we have early so far are turning the ball over, perimeter three defense, and free throw shooting. Unfortunately, Duke is really good at forcing turnovers and can shoot the three at multiple positions.
I'd add a 4th weakness, our perimeter shooting. Only 32.5% right now.
Now is the time for DJO to find his mojo. They'll need a few three-balls from him in this one as well as his defense.
Ummm. Duke may be good but they still suck.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOgC2Qbqh4
(I had to dig out that old video) ;D
one marquette legend's take on a piece of duke history....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPMo14XTTvE&feature=related
Quote from: downtown85 on November 21, 2010, 02:28:33 PM
Ummm. Duke may be good but they still suck.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYOgC2Qbqh4
(I had to dig out that old video) ;D
HAHAHAHA I totally forgot about this video. Im so happy you posted this. Priceless.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 21, 2010, 11:07:20 AM
I'd add a 4th weakness, our perimeter shooting. Only 32.5% right now.
Four weaknesses and counting? Wow, we must really suck. Do you think we can win another game this year?
So is he wrong? Or are you just here to b*tch at him...again...
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 21, 2010, 04:07:13 PM
Four weaknesses and counting? Wow, we must really suck. Do you think we can win another game this year?
Sarcasm?
He's right. Those four areas need to be shored up ASAP.
Initial Vegas odds has MU a 14 point underdog.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 21, 2010, 04:07:13 PM
Four weaknesses and counting? Wow, we must really suck. Do you think we can win another game this year?
I have us winning 22 games this year I believe...so yes...I think we can win about 18 more
Quote from: DoggyDaddy on November 21, 2010, 11:13:56 AM
Now is the time for DJO to find his mojo. They'll need a few three-balls from him in this one as well as his defense.
Four wins and probably our best pure offensive threat has been relatively silent. If DJO can find his game at both ends of the floor, we can win this. Without a big night from him, I can't see us beating Duke.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 21, 2010, 04:53:59 PM
So is he wrong? Or are you just here to b*tch at him...again...
We haven't had to shoot very many threes yet this year...we've gotten whatever we've wanted by driving or throwing the ball down low against smaller, less athletic teams. So our low % is based on a very small base of activity. I don't think it's overly concerning at this point. Once we start shooting more 3's, we'll make a decent %, although I can't imagine we'll be nearly as good as last year.
I've never heard the theory that teams will shoot a better 3 point percentage the more they shoot. The big problem is that two of their starting guards (DJO and Vander) are really shooting poorly. I mean, without Buycks shooting 7-11, they would really be dismal.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 21, 2010, 04:53:59 PM
So is he wrong? Or are you just here to b*tch at him...again...
He thinks we can't shoot 3s, can't shoot free throws, can't handle the ball, and can't defend the perimeter. And thinks we'll win 22 games. So yes, I think he's wrong, either about our shortcomings or about our victory total. Time will tell which.
As to why I'm here, I'm here, as always, to read fellow MU fans perceptive, cogent and sometime quite funny comments about both basketball and life in general. And sometimes to mix it up a little with those with whom I disagree. Almost never to answer an inane and childish question, though I did make an exception in this case.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 21, 2010, 06:53:11 PM
He thinks we can't shoot 3s, can't shoot free throws, can't handle the ball, and can't defend the perimeter. And thinks we'll win 22 games. So yes, I think he's wrong, either about our shortcomings or about our victory total. Time will tell which.
It's all true though. What do you specifically disagree with?
I think we'll have a winning season and we'll end up getting better at defending perimeter shooting and handling the ball as our very young team matures. If we keep playing like we have been, though, we won't have a winning record in the BEast.
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 21, 2010, 06:53:11 PM
He thinks we can't shoot 3s, can't shoot free throws, can't handle the ball, and can't defend the perimeter. And thinks we'll win 22 games. So yes, I think he's wrong, either about our shortcomings or about our victory total. Time will tell which.
As to why I'm here, I'm here, as always, to read fellow MU fans perceptive, cogent and sometime quite funny comments about both basketball and life in general. And sometimes to mix it up a little with those with whom I disagree. Almost never to answer an inane and childish question, though I did make an exception in this case.
Just because those are our weaknesses today doesn't mean we can't overcome them.
It also doesn't account for what we do well and our strengths. The starting post was about our weaknesses. I chose to add a 4th. That doesn't mean I think this team is without a number of pluses...they certainly are. Good rebounding team. We have a post presence. Shoot our 2's at a nice clip. Play decent interior defense. Force a lot of turnovers. Etc, etc.
Also, nice hyperbole. I didn't say we can't shoot free throws, can't handle the ball, can't shoot 3's, etc. It's a weakness, but that doesn't mean we get 0% production in those areas. FT's will come around. Hopefully our 3's will as well. Our ball handling has me concerned as does our perimeter defense.
Please, you're adding drama and going way beyond what was actually said.
Perimeter defense and turnovers are what scare me against a good team like Duke. They have a few guys that can light it up from 3 point land and if they get going it could be a long night for MU.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 21, 2010, 06:22:30 PM
I've never heard the theory that teams will shoot a better 3 point percentage the more they shoot. The big problem is that two of their starting guards (DJO and Vander) are really shooting poorly. I mean, without Buycks shooting 7-11, they would really be dismal.
You're joking right? Don't you know anything about math? >:(
We've attempted something like the 4th fewest threes in the country. With such a small base, the numbers so far can and are very likely to be skewed. Is Buycks going to continue to hit at a +60% clip or is he going to miss a few and get closer to his real %? The opposite will likely be true with DJO (and others hopefully)...as he continues (or starts) to shoot threes, his % will improve as he accumulates more attempts.
It's just math.
Disclosure: math was my worst subject in school, but I'm still pretty sure the above is accurate.
Quote from: Skatastrophy on November 21, 2010, 07:03:52 PM
It's all true though. What do you specifically disagree with?
I think we'll have a winning season and we'll end up getting better at defending perimeter shooting and handling the ball as our very young team matures. If we keep playing like we have been, though, we won't have a winning record in the BEast.
For one thing, I think saying we can't shoot the 3 because our % is 32.5 (while our best, and one of the best in the country last year is shooting 16%) is alarmist. I also think it's reasonable to expect our handle and perimeter defense to improve as we tighten the rotation. Our ft% will fall - Crowder's not as good as Hayward was on the line and Otule, Vander, Smith and Cadougan aren't good shooters. We were a very, very good ft shooting team last year and people around here still constantly bitched, so I'm sure it'll be worse this year. Meanwhile, we'll defend the interior better, rebound better, penetrate and finish better. I guess I just don't see enough negatives to join some of our fans out on the ledge.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on November 21, 2010, 07:33:47 PM
You're joking right? Don't you know anything about math? >:(
We've attempted something like the 4th fewest threes in the country. With such a small base, the numbers so far can and are very likely to be skewed. Is Buycks going to continue to hit at a +60% clip or is he going to miss a few and get closer to his real %? The opposite will likely be true with DJO (and others hopefully)...as he continues (or starts) to shoot threes, his % will improve as he accumulates more attempts.
Right...so we have one guy shooting above average, and one shooting below average. We don't have Mo and Coobie around....we have replaced them with Vander (not a great 3 point shooter in high school) and Junior (who I don't think is a good 3 point shooter.)
I'm not saying they aren't going to get better. I am saying that this very well might be as good as they are going to be.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 21, 2010, 07:10:25 PM
Just because those are our weaknesses today doesn't mean we can't overcome them.
It also doesn't account for what we do well and our strengths. The starting post was about our weaknesses. I chose to add a 4th. That doesn't mean I think this team is without a number of pluses...they certainly are. Good rebounding team. We have a post presence. Shoot our 2's at a nice clip. Play decent interior defense. Force a lot of turnovers. Etc, etc.
Also, nice hyperbole. I didn't say we can't shoot free throws, can't handle the ball, can't shoot 3's, etc. It's a weakness, but that doesn't mean we get 0% production in those areas. FT's will come around. Hopefully our 3's will as well. Our ball handling has me concerned as does our perimeter defense.
Please, you're adding drama and going way beyond what was actually said.
When you go all "fair and balanced" on me like this I'll give you little argument. It's when we only examine one side of the coin that I object. Sometimes being "different" equals somewhat opposite strengths and weaknesses. Tiny teams either handle it and shoot it really well or they lose. We'll have more margin for error in those departments this year because were much bigger and much more athletic. And we'll probably need it, since we're less experienced and not as good a handling/shooting team as last year.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 21, 2010, 07:53:05 PM
Right...so we have one guy shooting above average, and one shooting below average. We don't have Mo and Coobie around....we have replaced them with Vander (not a great 3 point shooter in high school) and Junior (who I don't think is a good 3 point shooter.)
I'm not saying they aren't going to get better. I am saying that this very well might be as good as they are going to be.
Wow...such a simple concept to not be able to grasp. There haven't been enough attempts to be able to draw any kind of conclusion or to be overly concerned. Of course, those that tend to be negative will see things in a negative way.
Open up as 12 point dogs...that's a lot of points to lay down if you want to take the chalk.
I do see our three point shooting improving somewhat over the course of the season. Buycks and DJO will make the most 3's on the team by far, but I dont see Reggie Smith, Cadougan, or Vander Blue having any kind of consistent 3 point shot at any point this year. Jae Crowder has a nice stroke, and i could see him having a few games where he hits 3 or more 3's in a game. Still, their 3 point shooting is below average at best, and that will be problem over the coures of the season. 3 point shooting is such a HUGE part of college basketball, especially when you lack consistent inside scoring like Marquette.
Quote from: Fightin 411 on November 21, 2010, 08:20:02 PM
Open up as 12 point dogs...that's a lot of points to lay down if you want to take the chalk.
Especially for a team that only lost one game by double-digits last year (Georgetown in BE Tourney), and the rest of our 11 losses were by a combined 37 points.
First four games this year to last...
- MU has 82.6% of their points in the paint or on the line
- Last year, this was 63.0%
That is where our focus will be. Duke will want to speed up possessions and we will want to slow them down.
Singler vs. Butler...who would you choose? Singler better at threes...Jimmy is more efficient and gets more FT's. I like our chances with JFB!
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=kyle-singler&jimmy-butler=2009-2010&kyle-singler=2009-2010&p1=jimmy-butler
This will be a classic inside vs. outside match-up game. If we don't bring our guards, we are dead. MU has to jump the perimeter to win.
Quote from: Fightin 411 on November 21, 2010, 08:20:02 PM
Open up as 12 point dogs...that's a lot of points to lay down if you want to take the chalk.
From a wagering angle, MU seems to do well as an underdog the past couple years. I'm not sure about MU winning, but may take the points as I would guess the public would be all over Duke in this one.
Duke is a 14 point spread favorite. I would put some cash on MU.
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on November 21, 2010, 08:12:42 PM
Wow...such a simple concept to not be able to grasp. There haven't been enough attempts to be able to draw any kind of conclusion or to be overly concerned. Of course, those that tend to be negative will see things in a negative way.
If you were talking about players with a history of good three point shooting, then yes you are correct....reverting back to the mean is generally going to occur over the course of time. Accordingly, I expect Buycks to cool down and DJO to heat up.
The problem is that we have a new group here without a history of good three point shooting like we did last year. IOW, the mean is different than we have had in previous years.
And don't give me that "those that tend to be negative" crap. You seem to be saying "well, we are going to get better since we haven't shot enough," without actually looking at those who are doing the shooting.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 22, 2010, 08:01:46 AM
If you were talking about players with a history of good three point shooting, then yes you are correct....reverting back to the mean is generally going to occur over the course of time. Accordingly, I expect Buycks to cool down and DJO to heat up.
The problem is that we have a new group here without a history of good three point shooting like we did last year. IOW, the mean is different than we have had in previous years.
And don't give me that "those that tend to be negative" crap. You seem to be saying "well, we are going to get better since we haven't shot enough," without actually looking at those who are doing the shooting.
Fair enough. But the fact that we have new players with little D1 history isn't enough for me to say we're going to continue to shoot a poor percentage. We've got capable shooters...they need time to gel as a unit and learn how to play with each other. And for what it's worth comparing this year to last year is going to result in a disappointing outlook...not many teams are ever going to shoot the 3 like we did last year.
I bet the UK vs. Oklahoma game runs over and we are relegated to watching the first couple minutes on espn3.com... That will be very frustrating.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on November 22, 2010, 08:01:46 AM
If you were talking about players with a history of good three point shooting, then yes you are correct....reverting back to the mean is generally going to occur over the course of time. Accordingly, I expect Buycks to cool down and DJO to heat up.
The problem is that we have a new group here without a history of good three point shooting like we did last year. IOW, the mean is different than we have had in previous years.
And don't give me that "those that tend to be negative" crap. You seem to be saying "well, we are going to get better since we haven't shot enough," without actually looking at those who are doing the shooting.
I assume you mean Acker, Cubillan and Lazar as our players last year with a "history of good 3 point shooting" going into the season. Acker was a career 32% coming off a 28.8% year. Cubillan's last two years had been 33.6% and 29.4%. Lazar was coming off a 35.8% campaign. So most MU fans were plenty concerned with 3 point shooting going into last year - and justifiably so.
Don't like our chances at all tonight. Duke's got size and we will have trouble defending them and especially keeping them off of the offensive boards. Our ball pressure should be neutralized because you're generally not allowed by the refs to steal the ball off the dribble too much from teams run by Coach K (not to mention they've got some pretty good guards). I remember the loss to Duke a few years back where we hassled Paulus into a few turnovers early so he just started using his off hand to blatantly push away the MU defender on every singe possession with no calls from the officials.
So, they're going to score 80+ points and I don't see how we score enough to keep up with them. Last year we had a puncher's chance in a game like this if we rained 3's for a good stretch. Not yet this year. I think we're roughly 15-20 points worse than them right now, but will clsoe the gap to 10 by the end of the season. Duke stomps you when they've got you down, too.
I'm a very solid handicapper of college b-ball, but terrible when it comes to Marquette, so hopefully I'm wrong. The other possibility is that we are much, much better thasn we've shown thus far.
While I wouldn't predict a win, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it happens. I do expect that this week the college basketball world meets Vander Blue. His talent and star potential are pretty obvious, and I expect to see a bit of a coming out party the next couple nights.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on November 21, 2010, 11:05:42 AM
That doesn't bode well for us. To win this game I don't think Marquette can afford more than about 13 turnovers and somehow we have to keep Duke to 33% or less three point shooting.
Funny... we had 14 turnovers and Duke shot 33% from three but it still wasn't enough. I really didn't think Plumlee would school us like that.