Dave Berri takes a look at the Bucks
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/fear-the-deer-and-forecasting-the-nba/.
Prediction is about 46 wins and placement in the second tier of NBA teams.
Behind the Bulls, though. :)
They also forecast Portland to have 59 wins and the second best record in the NBA. Is that realistic??
Quote from: Henry Sugar on October 18, 2010, 09:30:22 AM
Dave Berri takes a look at the Bucks
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/fear-the-deer-and-forecasting-the-nba/.
Prediction is about 46 wins and placement in the second tier of NBA teams.
Behind the Bulls, though. :)
I think the Bucks are a legit 50-win team, but don't disagree with 46. All depends how Gooden/Maggette fit in and if you keep the energy from last year.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on October 18, 2010, 12:04:55 PM
They also forecast Portland to have 59 wins and the second best record in the NBA. Is that realistic??
Additional info is here
http://hickory-high.com/2010/10/10/my-franken-win-predictions-for-2010-2011/
Depends... Do you think Oden stays healthy for 1200 min this season? A big part of it for Portland is the addition of Marcus Camby.
Google spreadsheet info contained here (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoFou8S9b2MSdEFwV05uRzhMRUVkVG8wYkVuVHh5VUE&hl=en&pli=1#gid=0)
FWIW - the model Berri and company use do not rate Wesley Matthews very favorably (avg is 0.100 and he is rated at 0.86; worth 3.5 wins this season)
POR Min WP48 WinsL. Aldridge 2675 0.073 4.07
Luke Babbitt 784 0.015 0.25
Nicolas Batum 1932 0.200 8.05
Jerryd Bayless 1325 0.026 0.72
Marcus Camby 2072 0.324 13.99
D. Cunningham 960 0.082 1.64
Rudy Fernandez 1020 0.150 3.19
Armon Johnson 380 0.000 0.00
Wesley Matthews 1950 0.086 3.49
Andre Miller 2032 0.126 5.33
Patrick Mills 438 0.045 0.41
Greg Oden 1200 0.299 7.48
Joel Pryzbilla 320 0.176 1.17
Brandon Roy 2528 0.192 10.11
59.89
Wow, 13.99 wins for Camby? I can't speak what it would be in their model, but looking at basketball-reference's records for last season that'd put him the third-most valuable player in the NBA behind LeBron and Durant.
March 13th - Sacramento Kings coming to town
Got my tickets and my REKE DMC shirt ready as we speak
Yeah, the Bucks are hard to forecast. Bogut being healthy is huge though. If Jennings learns from how guys started guarding him the second half of last year, they could be good again. Also, this is the crucial year of a Scott Skiles coached team... we'll see if they get sick of him like the Bulls did or not.
Quote from: shiloh26 on October 21, 2010, 10:55:06 AM
Yeah, the Bucks are hard to forecast. Bogut being healthy is huge though. If Jennings learns from how guys started guarding him the second half of last year, they could be good again. Also, this is the crucial year of a Scott Skiles coached team... we'll see if they get sick of him like the Bulls did or not.
Agreed, and to that end, I find some of the free agent pickups odd given this worry -- Namely Maggette. I will be absolutely shocked if Maggette is getting major minutes by February for any reason other than increasing trade value. I think Skiles and Maggette will hate each other, and will result in relegating Corey to the end of the bench. (I acknowledge that this is essentially parroting a Bill Simmons point, but thought it at the time as well - I have always sort of compared Maggette to Larry Hughes)